Jon Joseph

According to CBS Sports, Puddles has the toughest path to the playoffs. 1. OREGON - WA St., at 14. Utah, Cal, 18. USC, at ASU, 12. Oregon State [OT - Who knew? Probably you but I did not know that Gonzaga CBB coach Mark Few, graduated from Oregon in 1987. UO is a cradle of coaches.] Utah has not lost a home game since 2020 during the no-attendance COVID season of the witch. Last Pac-12 team to win in SLC? OREGON - 2018 - 30-28 behind the play of Justin Herbert. Of course, one of Utah/USC will lose on Saturday night. CBS ranks but 11. contenders. However, at least in theory, SC is not out of it. The SC D gave up only 255 yards at Notre Dame and only 125 yards rushing. But the offense? 5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss, 3 picks, and a Special (?) Team breakdown that allowed a punt return for a TD. FWIW, not much based on this season's record, I think that SC will defeat the O-challenged Utes and cover the -7. 2. Washington - ASU, at Stanford, at 18. USC, 14. Utah, at 12 Oregon State, WA. St. I happen to be a Beavers Believer when UW trips to Corvallis. But Oregon State best be prepared for its game at Arizona with the Beavs coming off a bye week. 3. Penn State - tripping to Columbus with the nation's 2nd best D. 4. Ohio State - Penn State at Ohio State is the first of the B1G East Triumverate separation games. (Holy Ceasar's Ghost!) James Franklin is 1-8 vs. Ohio State and 0-10 vs. Top 10 teams on the road. 5. Michigan - Would every 1L P5 team be undefeated against Michigan's schedule to date? I think so. 2024 - Ohio State in Eugene. Michigan in the Big House. WOW! 6. Georgia - Bye and then 20. Mizzu, 13. Ole Miss, and at 17. Tennessee. All games are likely to be played without All-World TE Brock Bowers. This is not the preseason predicted cakewalk. 7. Alabama - But Saturday vs. Tennessee and down the road vs. Jason Daniels and LSU will not be easy outs for an O-challenged Bama team. 8. UNC - No FSU on the regular season schedule. Love the 8 game conference schedule, right? 9. FSU - 2 big wins are against 2 L teams. Does this warrant a No. 4 ranking? I think FSU would lose to undefeated UW, Oklahoma, and 1L OREGON, Texas, and Penn State. 10. Texas - Next tough game vs. Oklahoma in the B12 champ game? 11. Oklahoma - Next tough game vs. Texas in the B12 champ game? Also, where is Oregon State on the list? At Arizona, at CU, Stanford, 5. Washington, at 12. OREGON. Arizona will be tough. But getting Washington at home is nice and this will be a mega-fired-up team coming into Autzen. Especially if the Beavers upset UW in Corvallis. IMO, any Pac-12 team that finishes with 1L should be a playoff lock and no lower than a 2 seed. But I am not a Grapevine Guru.

I'll go with Charles' favorite IPA brand. Staker.com lists Notorious Triple IPA, Boneyard Brewing Company as being Oregon's best IPA. Brand name-wise, I like Hoppy New Year, Block 15 Brewery and Restaurant. But beware of tipping too many IPA's pregame and having the game Brew By You.

Coach, thank you once again. The Athletic's Ari Wasserman has a great article today on The Athletic defending DL's 4th down go-for-it decision-making. Ari notes that Oregon made the perfect hire bringing in DL. And that recruits like this kind of aggressive playcalling. Oregon is #9 in 247 2024 Composite Rankings. ESPN has Oregon ranked at #4 in the best 2024 recruiting classes to date. Bo? Should Know as the P5 QB with the most all-time college starts but it is easy to play Sunday Morning QB when you are not in the heat of battle.

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/oregon-ducks-throwback-jersey-college-football-world-going-crazy

I'm not certain about analytics but I do think that it is easier to make 1st downs on 4th downs when you are playing Portland State, Hawaii, and CU, instead of Oregon State and UW. Ducks were 8-10 on 4th down coming into Seattle but consider the opposition. As Hayward noted, you have to play an opponent and not just the percentages. And the percentages will change based on the quality of the opponent. If the opponent you are playing does not affect your decision, then something is wrong (youth, inexperience, arrogance?) and you may as well simply use a computer to dial up plays. One size does not fit all. I'm an old-school guy and IMO unless the score and game clock dictate otherwise, you best be certain of a better than a 70% chance of scoring the TD when you decide to eschew an almost certain 3 points within the opponent's 10-yard line. Especially, when you are an underdog on the road. And if you go for the TD, you best have the right play called. 4th down to ice the game? OK, but it's not like Penix was driving UW up and down the field the entire game.

I miss at least 80% of my 5-foot putts. And often, it takes 2 putts to get the darn ball 5 feet from the cup. But it pressure pressure-packed! We are playing for 50 cents a hole!

By the ultimate PO Ct ranking on December 3rd, OR's SOS will be better by quite a bit than Oregon State's schedule and the Beavers win against UCLA may not be a top-25 win. And head-to-head in the Civil War will trump any SOS issues.

And, disagreement in regard to seeding. I believe that come 2026 we will not see the 4 highest ranked conference champions seeded 1-4. Seeding will be as determined by the committee as is the case with CBB. I also will not be surprised in 2026 to see a 16-team field with an assured spot for the best G5 team but no 1st round byes. Start the season in Week 0 and this can work. Sprinkle a decent-sized amount of PO money on the players, this could be accomplished via a NIL Playoff incentive, to overcome the # of games played criticism. With the exclusive broadcast rights for ESPN ending in 2025 the money for playoff rights come 2026 will be off the charts, including streaming entities throwing their hat into the ring.

Thanks, Alex. #4? Draft a kicker from the soccer team? I would have liked to have seen an FG attempt right before the end of the 2nd Q so the currently shaky Lewis could have seen the ball go through the uprights. DL - 'Cam Lewis is a pro.' SMH but there is no sense in throwing the guy under the bus. Right, Deion?

Per Jon Wilner. Post Oregon vs. UW - Oregon - 15-4 SU/ 10-8-1 ATS Versus Wazzu in recent games after UW, 2 No Cover and 1 Push. This augers well for a WSU cover but I think the Ducks show up with something to prove and will not be looking ahead to the game in SLC. Washington - 4-15 SU/ 6-13 ATS ASU has won 13 of the last 15 games vs. UW (!) including last season's win in Tempe. But ASU will not win in Seattle on Saturday. I loved the lead-in from Stewart Mandel in today's Mailbag article - "But first: Don't blink or you'll miss another USC turnover."

Upon further review and FWIW, how I see it playing out. Oregon State is off in Week 8. A nice late week for a bye. (Not as nice as SC's bye before a potential champ game appearance but I see SC finishing with at least 2 and possibly 3 conference defeats.) The hinge game for Oregon State? On the road in Week 8 in Arizona. The Oregon State D is very good in Corvallis and not so much on the road. Jedd Fisch, an unheralded hire, has done a terrific job turning Arizona around as evidenced by the close home loss to UW and the road beatdown of the Cougars in Pullman. I think OSU at AZ will come down to the wire but I think that OSU will win this game. Oregon State's next big test post-Arizona will come the week before the Civil War when it plays UW in Corvallis. OSU lost by 3 in Seattle last season while eschewing 2-chip shot FGs in favor of going for the TD on 4th down. OSU will come into this game off a home game vs. Stanford. UW will visit Corvallis coming off games at USC and vs. Utah. I think Oregon State will win this game at home. Oregon's biggest test before the Civil War will come at Utah in Week 9. The last Pac-12 team to win in SLC was Oregon behind Justin Herbert in 2018, a 30-28 Ducks victory. I think Oregon will win a hard-fought game vs. the Utes. If I am correct (always questionable) the final week of the regular season will see UW vs. WSU at home in the Apple Cup and the Civil War. All three teams IMO will come into the final regular season game with 1 conference loss. UW will defeat WSU. So, the Civil War will be the game that determines which Pac-12 team from Oregon trips to Las Vegas. This will be a brutal game with OSU coming into Autzen as a 2024 member of the Pac-2. OSU will be ticked off and fired up to crush the Ducks conference champ and playoff hopes. ESPN's FPI gives Oregon a big Civil War win percentage. This game will be played on Friday the day after Thanksgiving. The game will kick off at 8:30 Eastern and is certain to be a game watched by at least 5M viewers. And on November 24th in Eugene, the weather (even though It Never Rains in Autzen Stadium) could be a problem. This is a rivalry game (DUH!) that Dan Lanning, now 3-0 in the last rivalry games and 0-For on 4th down attempts in these games, very much needs a win in what could be the final Civil War game. I think the Ducks win a game that will go into the 4th quarter and have a slight advantage with one more day of rest before the conference champ game on Friday, 12/1, likely to have an 8 PM Eastern kick-off on Fox. But, there is a lot of football left to play in a deep conference, with every team having a puncher's chance.

Apparently, Mario can stretch but he can't do knee bends.

Good thoughts regarding OSU and WSU and I concur. But I cannot write checks on behalf of ESPN and Fox.

He'll have to get by Utah to win the B12 and Arizona is on the rise. B12's 4 Newbies are 1-9 to date in conference play. No B12 teams other than the departees to the SEC are ranked. Power 2 and then the ACC and the B12. And how long the ACC will hold together. I think we'll see Notre Dame and UNC in the B1G in the next 5 years with 4 5 teams pods and Clemson, FSU, and 2 more teams, in the SEC. 20 teams each. Why dilute beyond this number?

Is Mario on the list?

Congrats! (Kind of.)

It would have been the Ducks carrying a big bushel of apples instead of going to the B1G. The correct and only sensible business decision was made by Oregon. Need further evidence. Watch the Big 10 Network. Outstanding coverage including of Oregon football and other sports before Oregon comes on board in 2024. Pregame and post-game coaches' pressers are terrific as is the wrap-up show, the Big 10 Final. Oregon is going to get pub it never received on Larry's Lost Network.

The Keystone Poster, PA Duck, has a post up that projects 2023 bowl games for the Pac-12. As always, thank you, PA. Here is a projection from Stewart Mandel of The Athletic. ROSE BOWL - 1. Michigan vs. 4. FSU - Michigan will not play a ranked team before it faces Penn State in Happy Valley on 11/11. This speaks for itself regarding the quality of 2023 B1G teams. As well as for Michigan's crummy OOC schedule. SUGAR BOWL - 2. Georgia vs. 3. Washington - All-World TE Brock Bowers is out for 4 to 6 weeks after undergoing 'tightrope surgery' on his ankle. The remaining slate for UGA is not as easy as predicted in the preseason. BYE, Florida, (QB Mertz had his best game of the season last week in UF's victory over South Carolina,) 20. MIZZOU, 13. Ole Miss, at 17. Tennessee, and at Georgia Tech. Without CFB's best non-QB player, this could be a tough stretch for the Dawgs. Cotton Bowl - OREGON vs. Oklahoma - I believe there is still a very good shot for the Ducks making the final Final 4. But this would be a nice consolation prize. Although it would be a game in a hostile environment. Independence Bowl - WAZZU vs. Oklahoma State - Even from Pullman, is playing a bowl in Shreveport, LA. a reward? LA Bowl - UCLA vs. Fresno State (Air Force Academy predicted to go to the Fiesta Bowl and play Texas.) Las Vegas Bowl - Arizona vs. Wisconsin Holiday Bowl - Oregon State vs. Miami Alamo Bowl - USC vs. Kansas State - USC's 6 wins to date have come against opponents with a combined record of 13-26. USC is no longer in Jon Wilner's AP Top 25. Sun Bowl - Utah vs. VA Tech - I'd flip Utah and SC. I don't see the SC D stopping the Utes run game on Saturday. This projection has 8 Pac-12 teams going bowling. If correct, this would be one heck of a swan song. ............................................................................................................................................................................... Ranking the Undefeated P5 Teams - Bill Connolly - ESPN+ 1. Michigan 2. Ohio State 3. Washington 4. Georgia 5. Penn State 6. Oklahoma 7. FSU 8. North Carolina Tom Fornelli - CBS Sports 1. Penn State 2. Ohio State 3. Washington 4. Michigan 5. FSU 6. North Carolina 7. Georgia 8. Oklahoma Connelly and Fornelli are not using the same crystal ball. .................................................................................................................................................... Week 8 Game of the Week - 7. Penn State at 3. Ohio State -5.5 Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-8 vs. Ohio State and 0-9 vs. Top 10 teams on the road. Penn State QB Drew Allar has thrown but 8 passes of 20+ yards this season. Allar is 1 of his last 6 'deep ball' attempts. Lee Corso picked against mascot favorite Puddles last Saturday. Will he also stiff the beloved Brutus? Pac-12 Game of the Week. 14. Utah at 18. USC -3.5. It's all good within the dome of Lincoln Riley. Lincoln tells us that the game at Notre Dame was an anomaly and that USC has the talent to win the rest of its games. Right? Last week against Cal, Utah safety Sione Vaki played both ways. In 15 carries from the RB position, Vaki put a shellacking on the Golden Bears with 158 yards and 2 TDs. Is USC's defense going to stop the Runnin' Utes run game? I don't think so. The O best come back to life or Troy is in for a long Saturday evening. ................................................................................................................................................................................ Vegas Insider - Current Odds to Win the 2023 Pac-12 Title (Vegas Insider shows odds from 7 sites. Below are the best odds (lowest payout) for Pac-12 teams in the hunt. Washington +125 OREGON +240 USC +320 Oregon State +750 Utah +1000 OREGON and UW are odds on to rematch in the conference champ game. Make It So! .......................................................................................................................................................................... College Basketball (CBB) Fans please help a former hockey player out. The CBB preseason Top 25 has only 3 B1G teams ranked: 3. Purdue, 4. Michigan State, and 25. Illinois. USC at 21. is the only Pac-12 to the B1G team ranked. No UCLA. No OREGON. Is this a poll-era all-time low for the B1G? For a CBB outlier, this seems to be very low for a conference that always sends 6+ teams to the Tournament. And is OREGON going to have another year of missing the Tourney? .......................................................................................................................................................................... GO DUCKS - TCB vs. WAZZU! I like the Ducks to win but -20 seems like a big spread.

Great take, Mic. But Oregon did put up 126 more yards than UW. Bo threw for more yards (but not TDs) than Penix. Chip Kelly disdained this stat but Oregon had the ball 9 more minutes than did UW. David makes a great point about the Jumbo formation disappearing. This OL that was a question mark prior to the season has played very well. But going against an 8 man front is tough sledding for any formation. As DL acknowledged, the 3rd down run prior to Oregon trying to seal the win on 4th down was a check down call that was not communicated properly. I won't argue with DL's take, I have neither the knowledge nor football IQ to do so, but against an 8-man box on 3rd down why not stretch the field? In the play that set up the tying FG attempt (SIGH), Ferguson was wide open down the middle. My main critique of the play calling was not doing enough to stretch the field late in the game. Troy Franklin was having a great game. Bryant disappeared but Tez Johnson came through. With the manner in which the Ducks ran the ball, drawing the UW D up to the LOS, I'm disappointed that we did not see more deep shots which seems contrary to the aggressive 4th down decisions. Great game. Oregon is still very much in the hunt for a Pac-12 title and a Final 4 berth. Thanks, David, for another great take.

After ESPN 'stole' OK and TX, there was no way Fox was going to allow ESPN into the LA hen house.

However, if you want to be aggressive how about with 8 UW defenders in the box on 3rd down before the ill-fated 4th down play, you look for Troy downfield in a one-on-one coverage situation? The UW D-backs could not cover Troy the entire game. I think that Stein went far too conservative in the 2nd half. There were pass plays downfield; especially, with how Oregon was running the ball. I agree with other posters, the late game calls reminded me of Mari(o) vs. ironically, Bo Nix in the game in Dallas against Auburn. Fortune favors the bold if the bold embraces fortune. Troy outplayed the UW receivers in this game and in my humble and amateur opinion was not going to be held down later in this game except for Will Stein, had Troy had the ball more often thrown in his direction. Going into a downfield shell while rolling the dice thrice does not, for me at least, compute. The guy who could win the Biletnikoff Trophy was underutilized.

MY BAD! I was referring to OREGON at Utah at 3:30 Eastern. I will stay up for the Beavers at Ducks. I'm never in doubt, but often wrong.

Charles, I checked and it shows a 12:30 Pacific kickoff. Love Ya, but I hope you are (for the 1st time in your life?) in error.

2024, using the Week 8 AP Poll and adjusting for conference realignment. ACC - 4 teams ranked. 4. FSU, 10. UNC, 16. Duke, and 21. Louisville. B12 - 1 team, 14. Utah ranked. Independent - 1 team ranked. 15. The Domers Pac-2 - 1 team ranked. 12. Oregon State. Add OSU and WSU to the Mountain West and with Air Force at 22, 2 MW teams would be ranked. B1G - 8 ranked - 2. Michigan/ 3. Ohio State/ 5. Washington (SIGH)/ 7. Penn State/ 9. OREGON/ 18. USC/ 24. Iowa/ 25. UCLA. SEC - 8 ranked - 1. Georgia/ 6. Oklahoma/ 8. Texas/ 11. Alabama/ 13. Ole Miss/ 17. Tennessee/ 19. LSU/ 20. Missouri. Does CFB (except for the ever-present Dinero) need a Playoff come 2026 (except perhaps for 'political' reasons) other than the best of the B1G vs. the best of the SEC? By 2026, Clemson and FSU could be in the SEC, and UNC and Notre Dame could be in the B1G. In this case, would any team outside of the B1G 20 and the SEC 20 (add 2 plus FSU and Clemson out of Louisville, Georgia Tech, Miami, or NC State to the SEC) have any shot at a title? I don't think so. I see no reason why either of the top 2 conferences would expand beyond 20 teams. Size goes to size and I am so happy that Puddles is landing in a B1Gger nest.

And in the Rose Bowl! WOW!