The Kamikaze Kid

It’s like fate decided to shine on NW but they said “No thanks”.

Great stuff everybody! I think to sum up a general them, the Ducks just need to be the freaken Ducks! Aggressive play calling with passive execution has been a disastrous mix. Tone down the 4th and go for its and bump up the self confidence at QB seems to be a winning recipe to me. I think the Ducks should lean into whatcha gonna do about it plays with their whatcha gonna do about it players. Sadiq, Dak, Hill and Davison are problems. Make Iowa have to solve them. I love the punter/ returner chess match that could develop. I say punt even in field goal range and make Iowa live on their own goal line. Force them to get a couple first downs just to get back to the 25. I think this game comes down to Oregon's state of mind. Swagger without arrogance, caution without being timid taking the win without hoping for it is what I want to see. I think we do and the Ducks take a huge step towards maturing into a legit championship contender this week.

OBD 17-13 2 TOs 2 Sacks 150 Passing yards

I'll admit I cringed when OBD went for it on 4th down early at mid field against Indiana. They had already shown themselves to be sure tacklers and able to stop ball carriers at the point of contact and not be dragged for extra yards. That needles gamble gave Indy a short field to kick a field goal, grab an early lead and play the rest of the game with confidence. That game was setting itself up to be a classic field position struggle against a disciplined team and not a river boat gambling type of game. I don't mind gambles if they're properly timed and situational. Somewhere in between Kelly's stubborn bravado (Stanford, Auburn redzones) and Mario's mundane plod ball exists good coaching. Calculated gambles mixed with solid safe decisions takes time to understand. I hope Lanning gets there. We will be a regular legit championship contender when he does.

Can Oregon miss the playoffs? I sure hope so. I never want to be one of those teams that expects to make it just because we're us. I want to watch these games with everything on the line. That's what makes them extra fun. To me, if OBD can't win a defensive battle with Iowa or an offensive battle with SUC or a test of wills with the dang fuskies, they don't deserve to compete with top teams in the country for the crown anyway. I'm sure Lanning feels the need to win every game left and I'm fine with being in that boat. Can't wait for Saturday!

When it comes to the playoffs, what would be your priority? Is just making the field good enough? Championship contention? Making the final four? For me, I'm most interested in being competitive for a championship so I'd say being in the final for or even better, the championship would be a successful season with winning it all being the cherry on top. With that said, losing to Iowa or USC or Washington would mean the team is not at championship contention level this year and not making the playoffs wouldn't bother me that much. I'll always root for OBD no matter what level they are at in any given year, but to me when it comes to the playoffs, you're either in it to win it or you're not. This mind set is also what has me really excited for the game this week. It feels like the stakes are really high.

Just win baby!

Sad to see Florence go as I remember Lanning calling him up to recruit him as he was leaving the field after the Dawgs won the championship. That being said, it is almost unreal how amazing the recruiting has been that a guy who had early playing time and a sophomore starter became the third guy at his position. I’m sure he’ll be highly sought after and OBD’s number one pass defense will keep on keeping on.

Great stuff! I really hope to see Davison start and pounding it up the gut to be a part of the early game plan. I know that would be a good on good battle but we seem to have too many slow starts trying to work the edges and short passes early. A couple early Stanford esque first downs may open up the outside game. I'm just an arm chair OC I know but I think this will be an alpha dog pissing match early and I think we need to set the tone. Really excited for this one.

Here's where OBD ranks nationally in defensive stats. Points per game: 6th 13.5 Yards per game: 4th 239.4 Passing yards: 1st 124.6 Rushing yards: 30th 114.9

Mario's the Titanic in search of a berg.

It's bye weekend and without an actual game to ponder, I've been thinking about how good the Ducks actually are. Statistically, the Oregon D is very good but lurking just below the stats is some info that may make them elite. In the category of points allowed per game in the BIG, OBD find themselves in fourth place behind tOSU, Indy and Iowa. Oregon has given up 85 points in the BIG and 108 over all. If you brake that down between qtrs 1-3 and the 4th separately, some interesting info emerges. Below, I've done just that. Team Qtrs 1-3 4 Total Mon St 6 7 13 Ok St 0 3 3 NW 0 14 14 OSU 7 0 7 PSU 3 14 17 excludes OT points IU 20 10 30 Rut 3 7 10 Wis 0 7 7 Total 39 62 101 BIG Totals 26 52 78 Some conclusions. OBD have given up only 26 points in 15 quarters (5 games quarters 1-3) against BIG competition. That's less than 2 points per quarter. Two thirds of the total points given up against the BIG have been in the 4th quarter. Of the 52 fourth quarter points given up, only 24 were with the game still in doubt (Indy and PSU). I've never seen defensive numbers like these for the Ducks. If the offense can find more consistency and the D holds steady, this may be a championship caliber team.

This should be a T shirt.

Looked on ESPN scoreboard about an hour ago and saw that Miami had over 90% chance of winning. Should have phoned in a sure money bet!

OBD is in third place in our conference and realistically somewhat of a long shot to win it all this year and we all still love it! Just competing at the highest level year after year is all we can really ask. If we actually make the championship game or to even win it would be historic events. At LSU not being in the championship after a few years would have the hot seat heating up. Who needs that. He’s got top level resources, compensation and a rabid and appreciative fan base in a very chill environment for family life. Sounds like a great deal to me.

Indiana is a great team with a great coach and I believe they could beat anybody on any given day. I also think that beaten the best teams in the country week after week would expose depth issues that would be too difficult to over come. If they do manage to make the championship game, then Lanning's streak of only losing to championship game participants since his first year would continue.

Yes Charles it is quite a confusing and contradictory year. They can absolutely get it done until they can’t. They either put up video game numbers or get stopped in their tracks. On Saturday when the weather was the best, they played their worst. As the weather got worse, they played their best. I thought the Stanford esque game I’d like to see them start with kind of got forced on them when the storm took the cutesy options away.

My list was purely based on standings. Top six: 0-1 loss, Mid Six: 2-3 losses, Bottom six: 0-1 wins.

I think the Coach Lannings and Cigs of the world are far better off at their new blood schools than jumping to blue blood schools. If neither never win a championship, just being in the hunt most years will be good enough for their fan bases. Can you imagine several years in a row like OBD had last year and complaining that your coach just can't get it done? I think we're just beginning to see the problems of the super conference concept. With ever expanding conference sizes, some teams will just be stuck at mid upper tier just do to basic math. UGA, Bama, Texas, OU and LSU can't all win the conference every year. Throw in upstarts like Ole Miss Vandy and a reborn Florida and someone on this list will have to be 4-4 or worse. That's just math doing what math does. OBD went out brought in an up and coming D coordinator, Indiana brought in an old coach that you had to google to find out about. The blue bloods don't want to take that route. That keeps them stuck on a flavor of the month merry go round. In the end I see most of these fired coaches just swapping schools because they will be the biggest names available. Rinse and repeat.

Not only do I agree with your running back rotation and analysis, I think Davison's running style (up the middle) plays to the Ducks O line strength. The offense really seems to bog down when they start off by trying to win the battle of the edges then lose them against a good defense. This just seems to set up the third and longs that fail with bubble screens and short passes. Davison gives OBD that Stanford smash moth attack that I think would be a great way to start a game with. A long bruising drive to start the game could soften up the D making them more vulnerable to explosion plays off the edge later. OBD have the personnel to do it but for some reason haven't chosen to start off a game that way yet. Seems like Iowa would be a great [;ace to start.

Well articulated post Mike. A quick synopsis of my original take would be that OBD seems to be scheming as a cautious underdog not as a talented favorite.

Generous but I’ll take it.

Great breakdown. I just checked the BIG standings and it is spilt evenly between 3 distinct brackets. Top Six: tOSU, Indy, OBD, Iowa, UM, USC Mid Six:: Min, Neb, NW, UW, UCLA, Ill Bottom Six: Mary, Rut, PSU, MSU, Pur, Wisky OBD's results Top Six: 0-1 Mid Six: 1-0 Bottom Six: 3-0 Remaining Games Top Six: 2 Iowa, USC Mid Six: 2 Min, UW Bottom Six: None Of OBD's four wins, three are against the bottom six. The schedule really ramps up for the final four games.

I don't want this post to come off as to whiney but I'm just concerned that OBD are making things too hard on themselves by trying to play it safe,

As OBD head into the final third of the season, some patterns have emerged in the team that become concerns to me that if not addressed create a dangerously low ceiling for an offense with much more potential. It should also be mentioned that against inferior competition, these concerns get hidden as the team simply overwhelms the defense on pure talent alone. Out of eight games played, the Ducks have shown major offensive struggles in three (Penn St, Indiana, Wisky). These are the three I'm most focused on and am talking about. Here are my main concerns. Offensive game plan: It feels against tougher competition, the plan gets way too conservative which creates predictability that tougher defenses exploit. Way to often, the Ducks seem to find themselves behind schedule then face third and long with inadequate plays designed to get the yardage needed. A three game sample size shows this to be a trend not just a one off. Conservative passing plays: Kind of part two from the first critique, there seems to be way to much passing behind the line of scrimmage and passing short on third down. A timid passing attack just allows the defense to jam the box with too many defenders that also helps to stifle the running game. All in all I think this conservative approach negates the talent advantage that seems designed to spread out a defense and get playmakers in space. AWOL playmakers: Time and time again in these tough battles, you see Sadiq with one or two receptions and Moore with two or three and Hill with a couple carries. What? All three of these guys have the potential to be national leaders at their positions but nearly disappear on their own stat sheets. Designing the offense to get these guys the ball should always be the priority. Bonus gripe: Davison should be starting and getting ten plus carries a game. Where's Moga? Before the season started, I was sure that the offense would feature some Luke Moga trickeration from time to time. All three games mentioned above needed some sort of spark to get the defense out of it's comfort zone. I thought that was why Moga was on the team. By halftime of the three games mentioned the Ducks had 3 (PSU), 10 (Indy) and 7 (Wisky). Seems like shaking things up was in order in all three to me. Putting it all together, I think OBD makes themselves way to easy to game plan against when they have the talent to be a nightmare. It feels like the ceiling for the offense has been set artificially low. Against lower level teams the talent mismatch gashes the defense and puts up video game numbers but against solid teams it's a perfect serving of sugar free vanilla pudding. I really hope something changes because this could still be a special season with special results.