CalBear95

OK, not sure if I am entering a bout of hypomania over the last few days but I’m feeling it all the same!!! Crazy (maybe not so crazy) idea: PK should buy Oregon (and maybe UW’s) way into the B1G by promising them $40MM/year under the new deal or maybe some huge franchise fee This is how pro sports works. And I guarantee the B1G will think long and hard about it. The Ducks *have* to be part of one of these two huge conferences. They have the resources to compete. They have the brand needed to compete. And PK has what these people ultimately are about: gobs of money They just need to be on the inside when the ACC unlocks I’m not being facetious here.

Brand value. If you were to as an independent firm to place a monetary value on any of the remaining PAC and BXII football brands, I think Oregon comes out ahead by a bit. Oregon has invested a ton along these lines for decades. Oregon and UW are screwed due to geography. So long as realignment is a function of the entirety of a school’s sports media rights, the west coast is doomed. There aren’t enough strong football brands that warrant a conference creating insane logistics The SEC can grow to 20+ w/out growing its geographic footprint. Oregon and UW are looking at being left for dead and not being able to do a thing about it. The BXII could be flat out cold blooded and strand those programs and they would very very quickly become irrelevant If I were PK, I would write a $750MM check to the B1G to ensure Oregon FB is included ($40MM/year to help offset dilution of new media deal) until the ACC unlocks. Once the ACC comes open and if Oregon can stay a huge brand until then, the danger will have passed. USC et alia are trying to kill Oregon now. This, IMHO, is existential

Big Ten growth, UCLA's motives, Notre Dame: Answering realignment Q's THEATHLETIC.COM Is the Big Ten on a fast track? What was behind UCLA's move? Will the Pac-12 raid the Group of 5? This story (paywall) has a ton of thoughts around realignment but there is a note from someone that a lot of what motivated USC was the opportunity to hurt Oregon via recruiting. This says to me that USC will fight Oregon joining the B1G tooth and nail. So what could this mean? I do think the SEC is coming west. The SEC will raid the ACC at some point. Once that is done, they avoid the logistical wear and tear on athletes in non-football sports I spoke to in my post about geographically dispersed conferences. ND will join the B1G. The B1G will wait years for that to happen. They won’t expand before that because the SEC can’t expand until the ACC comes open (and if that happens, the B1G will be at that same trough) Oregon is going to be forced into the Big XII. And if and when the B1G looks to expand west, USC will ensure Oregon is not invited because they do not want to deal with the competition in recruiting. I am not optimistic about the trajectory of Ducks football going forward. After carrying the league and particularly USC’s carcass for the past 15 years, it looks like Oregon isn’t going to get rewarded

Here is what I honest to goodness don’t understand: why are these realignment decisions all sports or none? USC and UCLA are literally going to run (and ruin) their non football sports ragged with this crazy geographic arrangement. Football is the only sport that can support that sort of travel schedule on a collegiate basis (pro teams can but, volleyball players aren’t full time pros, for example) It seems an utter failure of imagination to think of the grant of rights in two parts: football and everything else. The huge money comes from the former and (excepting hoops) funds the latter sports. Athletes in this latter group have no pro level aspirations. There is no pro rowing league. Or the current construct for sports with pro corollaries (hoops, baseball) already work just fine as is. If the goal is to get to the single biggest payoff for media rights it seems somewhat obvious to actually take a page from ND’s book (I literally threw up in my mouth writing that) and offer their football rights to some uber-league and then leave the current geographic conferences intact. This allows for a league of 32+ high value brands that compete in football only and saves the absolutely disastrous outcomes for sports that cannot work as a national confederation other than in a playoff/national championship format (Final Four, CWS, Frozen Four, what have you) instead we are going to do a lot of damage to people who love doing a sport and are leveraging that skill to help pay for college and harbor literally zero hopes or real pathways to some semblance of a pro career in athletics. This insanity hurts the vast majority of student athletes and someone needs to step up and call an end to this madness. It is possible to have both a national football conference and vibrant local conferences that house some of those same national brands in non-football sports. Am I crazy here?

I would urge restraint on GK. First, what is he going to say publicly: I’m piloting a ship destined to crack up just downstream? And he was betrayed by his own. The B1G didn’t poach the LA schools. They went to the B1G. Not a lot GK can really do with that hand especially when you learn this stuff was in motion almost a year ago (even if it went a little dormant until 3 months ago) In all honesty, if its me calling the shots, you get cold blooded. You are building a 40-48 team version of the NFL. 2 x 20/24 Conferences. Drop the brands that don’t work to make room for those that do. Do you really need an Indiana and Purdue (or either if ND comes in)? A Northwestern and an Illinois? A Rutgers? Stranding west coast brands for a national product capped at a hard member total to preserve traditions but invite dilution of real value and create complex travel logistics seems unwise to me. Maybe this is just motivated reasoning….

OK, this made me think of my childhood and my parents playing Willie Nelson’s Whiskey River. You made my day with that. Thank you!

Why didn’t I think of that? Really having a bad day Here is what stumps me: how does SC and UCLA make that travel work? Set aside money. These trips become almost akin to professional leagues. IDK. Apparently (and I already knew this) I don’t do patience all that well. I want everything to solve itself *rightnow* when the truth is not that. And I haven’t even begun to process this for my Bears. <sigh>

I’m bipolar and even I can’t take these mood swings. I’m not even a Duck and I feel a sense of dread at being relegated to play the PNWs version of Okie St for the Big XII The Ducks are soooooooo close to becoming perennial and the just like that, it slips away. Why why why why why!!!!!!????? And then my wife comes in and asks me what is my problem and I go back to hunting for crumbs of information on what will happen knowing that they don’t exist I’ve fallen so far I am even following Canzano on Twitter. God help me….

Example: Fuskies

I didn’t even think about this factor and as the author notes, it’s non-trivial especially in light of non sporting news. This also make’s abandoning Cal even more problematic. I don’t know how this would impact Stanford as they are private but I’m not sure they would want to take on such a third rail issue in the state if it kiboshed UCLA I would hope UCLA already thought this through and felt they could work within the current legal constraints but if not, this is going to be a train wreck. I mean catastrophically embarrassing. Like people getting fired bad. The pressure to not make exceptions to these legal constraints so to enable this move will be beyond enormous (I have a value opinion on this but regardless of what that is, this statement is simply one of fact)

USC and UCLA aren’t members yet so they lack veto power. Your comments around rich alumni being an issue sort of falls apart when you think of your school and tOSU. I think you are losing the plot a little. This is now about brands. Oregon is a massive draw and a natural rival to SC given resources commitment and fan loyalty. Why would you toss Oregon over the side? It isn’t the equivalent of Texas Tech or Oklahoma State

No, they don’t want to set off an implosion of the PAC without perfect information on ND. My guess is they have 3 in mind and are just waiting to see if the fourth is needed or not

Stanford seems a logical choice over Cal but I wonder (hope?) the latter get the nod given its relationship to UCLA. Or maybe they find a way to snag both. IDK

What else are they going to say? I assure you, the level of trust between these members is really really low. They know Oregon isn’t staying in a plussed up version of the Big West or whatever it’s called. and they know Oregon would rather commit seppuku than join the Big XII And they know Oregon is the next most valuable piece on the board behind ND (note: this assumes the ACC teams cannot be pried out from that league which seems pretty reasonable) IOW, they aren’t staying or merging. They are just waiting for things to move along a little further. So I think the PAC disappears in 2-3 weeks when Arizona and/or Utah schools bolt rather than wait for Oregon and UW to administer the death blow It is going to be excruciating to wait and the commitment news could get dicey between now and then but Oregon (and UW) will be OK

That isn’t what will happen. They need ND to make a call so they know if they are inviting 3 or 4 from the PAC. They (rightly) assume neither Oregon or UW is going to panic jump to the Big XII. If they take Oregon and Washington now that sets off a domino that dissolves the conference and leaves them either w/out Bay Area presence because Cal and/or Furd will possibly have acted. They probably feel comfortable knowing the SEC is also waiting on ND so there is no risk of the SEC swooping in to snag any schools (should they want to) that would disrupt the B1G’s next move. TL;DR the B1G feels relatively comfortable that Oregon and UW are safely in place until the ND domino falls. They have no pressure to act before then which means we may be hanging fire for some time

I would be pretty shocked if Oregon was viewed as dilutive on its own or w/UW Clearly B1G is waiting on ND’s decision before adding more. Wonder if SEC is doing same. Be curious if SEC even wants a west coast footprint or are happy being as far west as Texas and OK. If they are happy to stay there then Oregon’s bargaining power drops quite a bit. The question is really: what do these guys see as the final total and are they willing to eject existing members? So, if the number is 20 and you are the B1G you have four slots to go unless you jettison a school or two. You want ND so really that leaves 3 slots you can attack until ND makes their decision known. Would you rather wait to see if some of the jewels in the ACC come loose sooner than later? If not the Oregon gets the call. Or you assume 24 is the final number and go to 20 now knowing the inevitable dissolution of the ACC will bring 4 more in which case you give SC and UCLA some geographical support. That same thought exercise with the SEC might have them waiting in the wings to get 4 ACC schools and then staying at 20 for as long as possible which means they would NOT look west because they want to keep those slots open. IOW, it’s a mess.

That would be an odd move to let the P10 merge with the B12. Why let the 6th, 11th, 12th, and 21st media markets go elsewhere ahead of media negotiations?

If the B1G let the Seattle (Oregon as well given ties to UW) and Bay Area media markets fall to the Big 12 then I would have to say they are abject morons. Seattle is a T15 market and if you add a sorry Rutgers for some weak hold on the NY media market I have no idea how you don’t scoop up the value Said another way, what’s the value in letting those media markets die/go somewhere else for another decade?

Seattle is a top 15 market and Oregon has a bigger fan base than SC. IOW, UO and UW have real media value and probably travel as a pair. By kicking the stool out from under the conference they leave no choice for those schools to leave If you are the B1G are you really only having two west coast teams?

Das is das end

Curious that they would strand the Bay Area and PNW

Two comments as I wanted to make two fundamentally different points. There is a need for a structured pay for play rule and a GM function to manage the school’s $$ pool. With a few exceptions, the current NIL pay for play payouts won’t be drawn from an unlimited account if you will (see below for why) As a school, I would want to get out in front of this because these boosters will undoubtedly start acting like irate investors. Irate boosters, nursing enough as they are today, can easily morph into a gadfly like Ichan to force the coaches to map to their vision ‘or else.’ The chaos and pressure that will put on staffs and the ADs will be off the charts insane. Right now this is straight pay to play so you can’t solve without running afoul of the regulations (how can coaches liaise with boosters on targets as that is flat out directing money). The schools have a vested interest in getting some sort of salary cap in place and can probably do so by letting players form a union so there is some collective bargaining structure in place. That’s fully legal. If the players get sponsorships, fine, but that is tightly controlled so it isn’t pay for play but with a innocuous brand. Then schools hire a GM to manage their salary cap.

It’s an interesting decision process I would imagine. Getting to the NFL is no sure thing so you want to pick a program that will optimize the chances for that outcome (development and opportunity to showcase and use skills). OTOH, a $9.5MM payday may be a better financial decision given the above mentioned risks. If you hit on both, well, mazel! I would be curious to know how the kid thought about this decision especially considering MC has no real credible track record of developing QBs to an NFL level game (he inherited Herbert pretty much developed as we all know) If I were advising kids, this is the formula I would use: NIL in hand vs success rate of developing NFL QBs * average draft payout of average slot drafted

@Charles Fischer I would hope by this point you would know that dogs now (rightfully) own the GIF and meme world.

I love the fact they refuse to give kudos for hiring Lanning. Dude was a highly sought after hire and the Ducks managed to dodge the Wilcox bullet (still having trouble that they even went this route but…) and have someone who - so far - is doing all the right things, big and small