CalBear95

I am beginning to see articles on this forum that get me a weeee bit nervous. Those that most fit this profile are whether Lanning will leave the Ducks in the lurch when X coaching position opens up. But ‘can Lanning fail’ will work as well. As someone in recovery, you learn to literally take it one day at a time. I know that sounds corny but it’s very true. Now, I in now way mean to trivialize either my or any other person’s addiction by comparing it to the zeal of a Ducks sports forum. But the mantra is apt. Lanning can fail. And he can succeed beyond our wildest dreams. Or be mediocre. Or…. You get the point. Enjoy the present and don’t worry about the future. Trust me, life is far far more enjoyable that way (especially in sports where either catastrophizing or living delusions of grandeur are a fan base’s genetic make up ) Go Ducks!

Let’s just get through this season before we worry about a problem that would be down the road a ways. One day at a time.

I couldn’t disagree more with this perspective more vehemently. This type of coaching philosophy is in my opinion, abuse. It hails from a less enlightened era and has zero place in the game. This is not how you develop athletes and can be quite dangerous. It took a pro player dying to end the insane ‘water is weakness’ mentality of pre-season camp. I dearly hope nothing even remotely close happens here. The fact Frost thinks this is something to brag about is shameful

I fear you may be viewing the phrase in too pessimistic a light. I think the point is the Ducks aren’t going to be UGA out of the gate even though DL was their D coordinator. The team is talented and is coming from a system that was offensively conservative which had the downstream effect of placing additional pressure on a shaky D and, as has been noted, didn’t do a fantastic job of helping develop players to achieve their max potential An offseason doesn’t fix that completely. The season will (should) show growth. The unfortunate reality is CFB doesn’t reward growth over the season as does a sport like basketball with its inclusive tournament that makes such teams quite dangerous. The cupboard is by no means bare so ‘not too well’ should not be a realistic expectation of performance. But breaking into a status of being elite year in and year out takes at least two and likely three years when a program shifts gears as radically as Oregon does in transitioning from MC to DL.

Seattle is a football town through and through. No other way to put it. I would not group us with the rest of the west coast in that regard

1) ruh roh for UCLA. 2) The irony of a San Diego location for the next meeting (a potential travel partner market for UCLA should they be forced to stay). 3) Go Bears. Sounds like my fellow alumnus has his teeth into an unexpected Lee Corso.

I think this is right. To me success is less than Ls vs Ws. Success is whether there is demonstrable change that shows a clear through line to an identity and output that can realistically lead to a high level of play consistent w/a very dangerous top 10 team. I do think the Ducks will be fierce this year but may not be better than Utah or Suc. Or maybe they will. But while I want to see the Ducks in a NYD bowl game this year, strong evidence that the rest of the conference is playing for 2nd place next year and beyond is good enough for me.

Sorry the UC/CSU came across as defensive. I didn’t mean it to be anything other than an FYI I don’t think UW or Oregon jump the Bay Area schools as, from a market perspective that would not make sense. I suspect they all get invited at the same time so as to avoid defections from the perception of being ‘passed over’ yet again and concluding it just isn’t going to happen in the near future so tie onto X conference for Y years

Deleting as accidental duplicate

Cal is the lead school in the University of California system (it was the system as just the University of California, hence Cal). CSU is a different and far less powerful university system. With that said, Cal and Stanford make a ton of sense as it locks up the rest of the California market that matters. And they are respectively the best universities in their class which matters to the B1G. Ultimately I think Cal, Stanford, UW, and the Ducks go as that gives the B1G a monopoly on the west coast as well as nighttime football inventory

There is a truism that says once a candidate verbally commits, it just lets the other programs know who they are competing against. Yeah, realignment FUD will be a thing. But it’s also good to see articles about how the B1G isn’t done and that Oregon is on the list. IOW, the program is set and isn’t going to fall into oblivion

Exactly. You don’t want to be figuratively selling traditional media in a paid search driven market

What is interesting is he probably is betting (correctly if Sankey’s “contiguous” principle is to be believed) that the SEC is in no way a threat to pick off any PAC schools. I don’t know if a Big 12 raid of the PAC forces Warren’s hand. So long as the SEC isn’t expanding (which won’t happen until the ACC GOR expires or is vacated), detente is preserved. BUT, if you believe Warren’s ‘aggressive no passive’ comment then I would assume they would not wait for some newly augmented Big 12 media deal to expire to acquire the BA and PNW media markets. IOW, I agree with you. Wondering if they are waiting on new media deal before the next rout as they want the option of extending non-full membership shares?

The challenge with any of these fan based media share results is that they often lack the methodology that backs out both double dipping as well as numbers driven by TX and OU (and SC and UCLA) That is why content from The Athletic is more trustworthy than something some fan posts on the internets to show why some reporter just doesn’t get it. That may not apply to what you referenced but the moral remains the same: trust non-expert driven data cautiously

That isn’t Wilner’s logic, it’s the B1G’s: Rutgers gets you the NY Metro area w/r/t media value??!!?

I cannot disagree with any reason underpinned by the quality of PAC refs. I know these aren’t professionals and are probably really great people but I just don’t understand how they are so consistently bad relative to any other conference.

Dude could say they aren’t expanding and ND would know that doesn’t apply to them. This is a garden variet hedge answer and deserves little scrutiny or angst

This will be an issue in the short term. USC and others are going to sell how the Ducks are now a Tier 2 program, etc. Beating the snot out of SC will help

If UCLA is forced to kick up some of its media money to Cal and the PAC stays together for now then the Bears stand to become the highest revenue earner in the conference. I mean, only the Bears. They look all cute with the eternal Sophomore Oski but in truth they are lurking in the shadows and will maul you a la The Revenant. Evil genius, baby. Evil genius. Go Bears!

Good read. Makes me wonder if the narrative of B12 superiority is, at least partly, being spread by folks hoping to spook a defection of a few teams and start the chain reaction of the PAC’s implosion. Sort of a run on the market, if you will, so you can get access to assets you would have otherwise never had. Makes me feel that standing pat is OK. A reprieve in the chaos until this all starts again in a few years

The schools fighting hardest to keep the Ducks and dogs happy have to be Wazzu and the Beavs as they are for sure getting left behind in any defections to the B12. Probably the Bay Area schools too. The challenge is that the Ducks and dogs are a little short on leverage (unless a four corner defection won’t yield those schools better $$) because, again, if nobody other than the B12 wants to take them, implosion of the PAC forces them to join the B12 So, the four schools can tell Oregon and UW that any deal is equal revenue splits, long term GOR (6 years, say), and massive exit fees. Take it or leave it because nobody’s riding to your rescue and you would die if you don’t join a conference

It’s just a raw deal for the Ducks at the moment. This happened at the worst juncture possible. Everyone says they and UW are the most valuable brands left on the west coast board but if nobody is buying then that fact helps absolutely not at all. Timing is everything and this is just one more reason to hate Notre Dame. While I know it will pain you all to acknowledge this, the Ducks want to be paired with the Huskies. Bigger market and more reputable brand as a university. They are a good pairing in both revenue and vitriol. As for my Bears, it looks bleak. Our only hope is that we stay in some power conference and the B1G wants a Bay Area pod to go along with LA and PNW. And I am not hung up on the quality of our FB team. But I do care about the sports the media deal supports. It would make me both depressed and angry if those sports went overboard as they are so associated with my time at Cal.

Stanford has the golden ticket called Notre Dame. I have no idea what happens to Los Osos Dorados

So what happens if the Ducks don’t sign a deal with massive flexibility? IIRC, the PAC rights expire 2024 and I have never heard of a year by year GOR. Also, the Ducks aren’t going to sign up to some largish exit fee because why would they? If the four corners bolt and destroy the PAC (ceases to exist in 2024) and nobody takes on the Ducks because ND has an expiring 2026 media deal and they have made no decision by then which thereby keeps dominoes from falling, the Big 12 could force the Ducks into pretty much any deal because, are they just going to hang out in limbo? The Ducks are in real trouble because they are utterly at the mercy of the B1G and SEC in terms of timing and are on the wrong media renewal schedule.

I’m sorry to hear the news. This variant is indeed sneaky. Read (or heard) it had an R naught of 18 which is bonkers (for context, the average flu variant is 1.2). I have a critical follow up with my hip surgeon (been dealing w/post procedure pain for 10 months and they have no idea why) and I have been holing up as much as I can so I don’t have to reschedule against his jammed calendar. Take care all of you out the in OBD land!