CalBear95

At some some point the insanity has to end for non-football at least. The geographic logistics are - and I think I can say this without violating the rules of OBD - utterly stupid. It makes zero sense for water polo teams on the west coast to travel to the Midwest for regular season games. Same for lacrosse going the other direction. Track and field in any direction. It’s like they are doing this backwards. Hoarding monopoly rights on as broad a national footprint as possible and hand waving at the logistics If football truly is 85% of the media value why not just pool those rights across the country? And the value of that number has to go up as leagues trim the fat off the lower value brands in the sport. For these so called media visionaries, I just don’t understand why the B1G and SEC merge, take the PAC brands they want and use the combined media leverage to force ESPN to release the ACC brands the newly merged leagues want. Instead we are ending up with this kloogy Frankenstein of a model which seems to be a way station to an inevitable NFL model for the top CFB brands w/r/t media rights.

Solving the ACC conundrum provides waaaaaay more upside than some combination with the BXII. It sounds like that is where GK is focusing his efforts while trying to fend of the BXII from poaching. My guess is a lot of these ‘imminent’ or ‘deep in conversations’ rumors are originating from the BXII to try and panic/peel off 1-2 programs and thereby make some combination with the PAC a fait accompli. The longer this goes w/out a definite outcome, the more probable the ACC option becomes. The BigXII is going nowhere. They are going to turn down tomorrow the 6 teams they would poach today because why exactly? The truth is, the BXII would crawl over broken glass to have those 6 teams and nobody should doubt that for a second. So long as the ACC thing is in play, there will be no movement towards the BXII I will bet Oregon and UW are supportive of that if B1G and SEC are not happening.

How would the ACC get out of a new GOR? ESPN isn’t going to just let them out of the current agreement and go on the open market. The PAC isn’t going to sign a deal that doesn’t contain some termination scenario if the ACC somehow does manage to dissolve a new GOR Said another way, the ACC will need to continue with a GOR for some period to ESPN in exchange for restructuring their current deal

It would be very interesting to understand the methodology behind this. The UW and Oregon numbers seem wrong at a gut level.

I would think there are the votes in the ACC to dissolve their current GOR contract. It is killing them because it is (a) egregiously undervalued and (b) will continue to be ever increasingly so for another 12 years. As such, there is definite value in eliminating that millstone around each team’s neck. FWIW, I would imagine a new GOR to ESPN would run 6-7 years making it highly unlikely if not impossible for a raid by the SEC for the next 4-5 years. If that assumption is correct, the high value ACC brands will need to weigh the cost and probability of success in getting out of their current deal via litigation vs the relative certainty of getting into the B1G or SEC in 6-7. I have no idea what the calculus is on that and I expect some high paid actuaries and/or IBs are on the ACC payroll at present to help figure that out.

I can’t imagine any deal involving the ACC omitting the dissolution of their current deal with ESPN. ESPN might be willing to do this because they can make more money and ensure the B1G (Fox) doesn’t have the best west coast brands The ACC won’t get raided in a vacuum (Oregon would be part of any such movement). My take on this is that it is all about brands not geography per se. I also think there two more primary iterations on realignment. Whatever happens to the ACC will be the first. Thereafter I believe however many super leagues are left merge, discarding the deadweight brands to get down to a number akin to the NFL’s. Does anyone think Northwestern is more valuable an asset than Oregon or UW? They get paid because of having the good fortune of being in the B1G before all of this craziness started. The real payout comes from optimizing the number of valuable brands relative to geographic footprint that ensures national interest. Oregon isn’t dilutive. Purdue and/or Indiana is (especially when you consider the Dallas Cowboys of CF, Notre Dame, will be in the fold). Rutgers. Maryland. And so on. You could get the SEC and B1G down to 16 major brands each which is effectively your AFC and NFC Long way of saying, a deal that involves pooling the best brands of the PAC and ACC isn’t death given there will be one more turn of the crank in my view

You are totally right…when I did in my head I came up w/$38MM then did in calc but used 12 instead of 22. Thought that looked odd

Good point vs brand value which matters Example: the Green Bay Packers aren’t in a large media market (even if you counted the entire state of Wisconsin) but their brand value is probably higher than most teams in the league GB shares licensing and media revenue because the overall pie gets bigger for all y/y

I honestly don’t know if the Big XII and PAC can force Oregon to do anything before the ND decision comes down. They and UW are the remaining jewels so it isn’t like they can’t wait to see how everything pans out (anyone of the opinion that a post merger grow oils turn them down if they came on later?) ND is the linchpin. If they go, the ACC will do everything they can given the loss of ND from their schedule. If ACC goes, SEC and B1G will raid. That said, maybe the only way the ACC can get out of current deal is via approaching ESPN some larger merger w/whatever comes out of a Big XII and PAC combination. It’s all guesswork at this point

For those looking to go independent, who do you schedule? I think you at best have to latch onto a conference like ND does with the ACC And ND has a deal w/NBC because ND has a strong national brand and a huge east coast following. Oregon doesn’t have that kind of value. To me, the independent route is program death

I would take a reduced share and/or work with PK to subsidize. What I didn’t expect is the ~$80/MM/year delta. That’s a big number. I think the math gets a little easier though. Assume $300MM/year for a PAC 10 is correct so that’s $30MM/team. If you add Big XII I believe their number is $500MM (let’s just go with that to make this easy). Assume ACC can’t get out of deal so they don’t get added in. $300MM + $500MM = $800MM $800/22 = ~$67MM/year If B1G offers $63MM (or whatever it was) I think you would take it given intangible (not really) vale of being at a national level in terms of visibility

@Charles FischerIs there a story linked in the article or is this your speculation around the internal politics?

If what @Charles Fischer just posted is accurate it may be moot. my uber point was, if they think you are dilutive then pay the delta. If they think that’s true over the course of the deal, don’t get hung up on pride. The NPV of that money is well worth it considering playing for some period of time in the G League and what value that actually delivers I’m not saying go begging. Just make it hard to be left out.

One word w/r/t UCLA: schadenfreude then guilty about the others and I would earnestly try to bring them along so I am not in regional Siberia

To summarize via snark from other corners of the Interwebs “I listen to Collin Cowherd so you don’t have to”

Edurank seems little more objective and Nebraska is in the 60s, Oregon in the 80s. Outside of that, the other schools are would represent 3 of the top 4 institutions in the league

In terms of academics UCLA, Cal, and Stanford are more elite than anything currently in the B1G. In terms of high profile sports, Cal certainly drops from that cohort. UW ranks 5th in public institutions and has a strong commitment to high profile sports Oregon is AAU and definitely strong in high profile sports All of these schools clear the snob hurdle in that regard (and as noted, many B1G schools should actually be looking up their noses at them). I would be curious if Oregon and UW agreed to effectively purchase their dilution whether the B1G would let them in.

Dude is worth $43.5Bn.

OK, not sure if I am entering a bout of hypomania over the last few days but I’m feeling it all the same!!! Crazy (maybe not so crazy) idea: PK should buy Oregon (and maybe UW’s) way into the B1G by promising them $40MM/year under the new deal or maybe some huge franchise fee This is how pro sports works. And I guarantee the B1G will think long and hard about it. The Ducks *have* to be part of one of these two huge conferences. They have the resources to compete. They have the brand needed to compete. And PK has what these people ultimately are about: gobs of money They just need to be on the inside when the ACC unlocks I’m not being facetious here.

Brand value. If you were to as an independent firm to place a monetary value on any of the remaining PAC and BXII football brands, I think Oregon comes out ahead by a bit. Oregon has invested a ton along these lines for decades. Oregon and UW are screwed due to geography. So long as realignment is a function of the entirety of a school’s sports media rights, the west coast is doomed. There aren’t enough strong football brands that warrant a conference creating insane logistics The SEC can grow to 20+ w/out growing its geographic footprint. Oregon and UW are looking at being left for dead and not being able to do a thing about it. The BXII could be flat out cold blooded and strand those programs and they would very very quickly become irrelevant If I were PK, I would write a $750MM check to the B1G to ensure Oregon FB is included ($40MM/year to help offset dilution of new media deal) until the ACC unlocks. Once the ACC comes open and if Oregon can stay a huge brand until then, the danger will have passed. USC et alia are trying to kill Oregon now. This, IMHO, is existential

Big Ten growth, UCLA's motives, Notre Dame: Answering realignment Q's THEATHLETIC.COM Is the Big Ten on a fast track? What was behind UCLA's move? Will the Pac-12 raid the Group of 5? This story (paywall) has a ton of thoughts around realignment but there is a note from someone that a lot of what motivated USC was the opportunity to hurt Oregon via recruiting. This says to me that USC will fight Oregon joining the B1G tooth and nail. So what could this mean? I do think the SEC is coming west. The SEC will raid the ACC at some point. Once that is done, they avoid the logistical wear and tear on athletes in non-football sports I spoke to in my post about geographically dispersed conferences. ND will join the B1G. The B1G will wait years for that to happen. They won’t expand before that because the SEC can’t expand until the ACC comes open (and if that happens, the B1G will be at that same trough) Oregon is going to be forced into the Big XII. And if and when the B1G looks to expand west, USC will ensure Oregon is not invited because they do not want to deal with the competition in recruiting. I am not optimistic about the trajectory of Ducks football going forward. After carrying the league and particularly USC’s carcass for the past 15 years, it looks like Oregon isn’t going to get rewarded

Here is what I honest to goodness don’t understand: why are these realignment decisions all sports or none? USC and UCLA are literally going to run (and ruin) their non football sports ragged with this crazy geographic arrangement. Football is the only sport that can support that sort of travel schedule on a collegiate basis (pro teams can but, volleyball players aren’t full time pros, for example) It seems an utter failure of imagination to think of the grant of rights in two parts: football and everything else. The huge money comes from the former and (excepting hoops) funds the latter sports. Athletes in this latter group have no pro level aspirations. There is no pro rowing league. Or the current construct for sports with pro corollaries (hoops, baseball) already work just fine as is. If the goal is to get to the single biggest payoff for media rights it seems somewhat obvious to actually take a page from ND’s book (I literally threw up in my mouth writing that) and offer their football rights to some uber-league and then leave the current geographic conferences intact. This allows for a league of 32+ high value brands that compete in football only and saves the absolutely disastrous outcomes for sports that cannot work as a national confederation other than in a playoff/national championship format (Final Four, CWS, Frozen Four, what have you) instead we are going to do a lot of damage to people who love doing a sport and are leveraging that skill to help pay for college and harbor literally zero hopes or real pathways to some semblance of a pro career in athletics. This insanity hurts the vast majority of student athletes and someone needs to step up and call an end to this madness. It is possible to have both a national football conference and vibrant local conferences that house some of those same national brands in non-football sports. Am I crazy here?

I would urge restraint on GK. First, what is he going to say publicly: I’m piloting a ship destined to crack up just downstream? And he was betrayed by his own. The B1G didn’t poach the LA schools. They went to the B1G. Not a lot GK can really do with that hand especially when you learn this stuff was in motion almost a year ago (even if it went a little dormant until 3 months ago) In all honesty, if its me calling the shots, you get cold blooded. You are building a 40-48 team version of the NFL. 2 x 20/24 Conferences. Drop the brands that don’t work to make room for those that do. Do you really need an Indiana and Purdue (or either if ND comes in)? A Northwestern and an Illinois? A Rutgers? Stranding west coast brands for a national product capped at a hard member total to preserve traditions but invite dilution of real value and create complex travel logistics seems unwise to me. Maybe this is just motivated reasoning….

OK, this made me think of my childhood and my parents playing Willie Nelson’s Whiskey River. You made my day with that. Thank you!

Why didn’t I think of that? Really having a bad day Here is what stumps me: how does SC and UCLA make that travel work? Set aside money. These trips become almost akin to professional leagues. IDK. Apparently (and I already knew this) I don’t do patience all that well. I want everything to solve itself *rightnow* when the truth is not that. And I haven’t even begun to process this for my Bears. <sigh>