AnotherOD

I think the OL is pretty much as should be expected. While I think the expression gets a touch of overuse, "high floor/low ceiling" seems to be a fair way to put it. An OL that may not dominate the Arizona's and Eastern Washington's of the college football world, but also won't be dominated by the Ohio State's or Georgia's either. Maybe not a lock future NFL guy in the current top six. At the same time, a big, experienced, mature group with a bunch of solid and successful college players. I sorta see it mostly as a "known commodity" rather than a question. With I believe 3 starters finishing their eligibility and 2 starters in their 5th season, next year may be one of those "five new starters" kinda deals.

I think Justin Herbert, as a top 10 pick, is going to average about $6.6 million per year over his first four year contract. Imagine paying a high school kid $8 million to just show up on campus? We may also see a kid like Bryce Young (Alabama), who should be off to the pros after this next season, get an NIL offer to come back to Alabama for another additional year, because as a top 5 NFL pick, he might be slotted at about 8 million, when Alabama's NIL group might offer him 10 million. Go to a bottom feeder NFL club or stay and make a couple extra million playing for (another) national championship? He still would be getting his first NFL contract going at a young age if he stayed for a 4th (or maybe even 5th) year. Take less money and go get beat up over 17 games in Detroit, or in Carolina, or with the Jets, on take more money and stay and play for national championships with all the best talent in Alabama?

If I'm remembering correctly, the ducks had adopted "the shield" punt formation (which had just hit the football world in a major way in 2002 in place of the "spread" punt formation - any special teams experts in the house?). Haloti was part of the three person group directly blocking in front of the punter. The punt gets away and Haloti gets hit chasing the play. I don't think the hit ever shows up on any replay angle but indeed it was either first quarter (or first half).

I always think back to "what might have been" 2003, when the Ducks opened the season up from with: 6-6 310 Igor Olshansky 6-5 345 Haloti Ngata 6-5 340 Junior Siavii 6-4 262 Devan Long I think 6-1 310 pound Robby Valenzuela was in the DT rotation (and the "little guy" in the group, Long, I believe still is 4th all-time in Duck football career sacks and 3rd all-time in career tackles for loss). These many years, it has stuck with me the TV analyst, in the pregame, prior to the kickoff at Mississippi State, saying he walked past the Duck DL warming up and thought he was walking past an NFL DL. Of course Haloti gets knocked out for the year in the first half, and the Ducks end up with an up-and-down 8-5 year, and that monster front never gets to completely show itself off. Igor goes on to be a second round NFL draft pick and is a multi-year starter over 8 NFL seasons, Haloti of course goes first round and plays 13 seasons including five Pro Bowls, Siavii battles injuries but plays five NFL seasons; and, I believe Long even has a cup of coffee as an UDFA and his career ends in injury while trying to make his way back to the NFL playing in NFL Europe.

I'd guess whether he can participate in the combine, or at least PRO Day workouts, will play a (significant) roll. If injury prevents those workouts, I think getting drafted becomes (extra) risky for NFL teams. If he is going to be an UFA, coming back make sense because with a strong year, I think he is a draftable player. Have not seen any updates on his injury, or if he stays, if he is expected for spring? Certainly a guy who can easily sit out spring, but with a new install coming on offense, it would certainly be a plus.

Chip wasn't as "bad" at recruiting as many seem to remember: DAT, Armstead, Harris, Buckner, Addison, Marshall, Long, Brown, Johnstone, Ifo, and many others. He also did better than probably predicted finding good kids in the 300-900 national ratings range (like Clay, Patterson, Keliikipi, Dargan, T. Mitchell, Hill, Grasu, Stanford, and others). He just never quite got over the top with recruiting, finishing each recruiting season with a long list of kids putting Oregon #2 or #3, a series of "almost", still his classes were #30, #12, #12, and #14, and again seemed to hit on a larger % of lower rated kids/JC than is probably expected. Helfrich wasn't that bad either, he got a number of kids a lot of programs were after (Tyner, Freeman, Carrington, Kaumatule, Griffin, Mitchell, Hunt, Jonsen, Ofodile, Lovette, Merritt, plus again a good amount of lower rated kids that did well: Crosby, Dye, Nelson, Jelks, Amadi, Herbert, Lemieux, Throckmorton, Hanson, and on and on). It sort of stands to reason as the glow and success started to dip, recruiting got more difficult. Maybe as opposed to Chip, he possibly had a higher "bust ratio" than would be expected with the top half of his classes (and had a few more than probably expected bad apple type situations). I've seen it argued when Chip took over he inherited an older group of coaches who didn't especially like to get out and recruit, so his "style"/approach was popular in house. By the time MH was in it, he had a very much older staff, I've even read the suggestion by then only a couple of guys on staff would ever even leave campus to recruit (didn't get out to schools, didn't get out to camps, didn't get out and talk to people or enjoy doing in-person visits). When someone had to go out and do the leg work in person, it was only one or two guys. It might just be random chatter, but you can possibly see how it might have come to pass as well. I doubt Chip is gonna change much in recruiting. He hasn't exactly cashed in on the perception UCLA was a place that would "recruit itself". Maybe if success came sooner there it might have flipped more? It would (obviously) help if Chip brought in some younger staff to do more leg work/relationship building if he were to prioritize it. Hard to say. Chip might not get there, moving forward, he now might be able to mine the portal and be just fine. It's a different game in some ways now, and to sell a kid on his second time around, may not involve as much "smothering them with attention" that the current "social media" era of recruiting seems to require.

Wasn't Wilcox in the mix when MC got the job and word was interest from JW was very lukewarm? Word on one of the Husky sites was his agent was trying to get his name into the UW coaching search due to interest from JW, but the UW never really had him near the top of their list.

I think Mario was just what Oregon needed at the time, a program stabilizer: come in, put in a system, get buy-in, hire a solid coaching and support staff, and succeed on the recruiting trail. I don't follow Miami that closely, but it sounds like it may be what they need as well. But I'm not sure he can really coach, or at least brings much to the table beyond the baseline. He needs to win with recruiting. And people love his recruiting, but having followed it myself pretty closely (since maybe 1998), I'll just say, if he is gonna win this way, it still needs to be better, and quite a bit better: if he is gonna play this bland style offense, and trot out essentially the same "bend but don't break defense" 75% of college football is using. The recruiting is very good, and watching guys like KT and Sewell is certainly fun, but it isn't close to being enough to win playing blah football. Oregon has been closing in on the magic 60% "blue chip" ratio, putting it firmly in the top 10-12. But the huge difference between Oregon and the very top programs is the number of top 50-60 recruits. In the current 2017-2021 group, MC has gotten 10 (in the 247 Composite): Georgia has 38, Alabama 37, Ohio State 33, Clemson 25, and LSU even 16. As much as USC has struggled, from 2017-2021, MC's "all time" success in recruiting at the UO recently, they still have brought in 17 top 60 recruits. Oregon is still in on some top kids, but currently I believe in this cycle Banks is the only top 60 kid. There aren't 2 or 3, let alone 5,6, or 7. Unless Oregon hires a real dud, I think Oregon can still recruit well beyond MC. The "next step" IMO is much more likely to come from better coaching, better talent evaluation, better player development, improved scheme than some future "next step" that may or may not come in recruiting (much better than we have been seeing) if it means Oregon must win with MC's current style of football, which has little to do with the current state of college football. Shoot, MC was just schooled twice by Dulwig, a former Bellotti cast off.

Interesting to look at the two QB prospects JM brought into Mississippi State while there: Schrader and Mayden: https://247sports.com/player/garrett-shrader-46038605/ https://247sports.com/player/jalen-mayden-56662/ And the graduate transfer QB Mississippi State took: https://247sports.com/Player/Tommy-Stevens-35502/ And the QB at Mississippi State who probably had the most success during the JM period: https://247sports.com/Player/Nick-Fitzgerald-33189/ It does appear JM has a certain type of QB recruit he looks for. (While not convinced QBs need to be broken into PRO/DUAL categories anymore as the distinctions between the two appear to be less and less in today's game) interesting to note all four were DUAL, while I believe JB, TT, and TB have all been PRO.

I expect AB to surprise some people. NC run? Unfortunately, 2023 in my humble opinion is where the window may actually really open. Doesn't mean there won't be a lot to enjoy before then. I'd say too high an expectation in 2021 and 2022 is just gonna disappoint some people. Just the reality of where college football/Oregon football is at this point in time.

Exactly. I'd imagine the OOC economics of a home game for tOSU are in at least the $4.5-$7 million range at least. The economics for Oregon playing anyone at home are likely $3.5-$5 million against anyone. Budgeting on travel for San Jose State, Utah State, Portland State or Sac State, maybe makes sense for a $1 million dollar payday for those schools. For Oregon, losing a home game is much bigger, even $1 million isn't going to make up for the potentially $3.5-$5 million dollars lost not having another home game. To take anything less than a return would be IMO a poor call, and something a program aspiring to go where Oregon wants to go, shouldn't let stand. Oregon is long past being "big timed". COVID sucks, but either you stick up for yourself or you don't. Let them play Central Michigan...

It may be wrong (won't be the first time); but, if healthy (here on March 1st, 2021), I'm gonna suggest AB is going to surprise some people. Maybe not Mariota or Herbert surprise some people, but exceed the (limited) expectations (many) seem to be placing upon him. Gonna' be interesting...

It does seem like MC is still at a stage where he wants to have his fingerprints on most everything, rather than be more of a CEO type coach. I'd agree MC seems well suited as a CEO (and OL co-coach if he wishes); but, I'm not really seeing any special indication he is a huge "plus influence" as either essentially a co-OC or co-DC. The whole "SEC style football" thing was an ok narrative to turn the page on the past, but it doesn't appear to describe much of what we seeing (other than maybe an unnecessary - and possibly limiting - risk adversion streak permanating the staff). And this is at a time when those programs who actually were decent at the whole "SEC style thing" have been abandoning it (because it was leaving them further behind). Most everybody wants to be physical, play fast and fundamental, and beat people up, talking about it endlessly doesn't seem to do much to make it happen. Oregon didn't appear to be especially tough or physical in 2020. Not bad, just no different than 90% of college football. When Oregon was best in 2020, it was when it's athletes were allowed to make plays in space and it played fast (and a bit reckless). With another 1-2 recruiting classes, on paper Oregon might enter into the very top tier of the "blue chip" ratio, conceivably just under the big 3 of Alabama, tOSU, and Georgia, and right in there (if not even slightly ahead) of the likes of Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and others. Let JM fully bring in what will be a modern cutting edge college offense and let TDR do what he does (install a fundamentally sound and aggressive defense) with great talent. Win with that talent, effort, and execution (rather than trying to "fit" some older ideas/philosophy onto today's game - creating limits in the process).

I think he could still be there in 2023 when a (should be loaded) Ducks team is scheduled to travel to Lubbock. Crazy.

Once again, surprised so many negative views on Anthony Brown after 23 passes. Not only 23 passes, but 23 passes - after not playing football in over a year (leg injury) - in a new system after not playing a snap all season. That then finally being thrown into the middle of a close Pac-12 Championship game - then into the middle of the Fiesta Bowl mess. No Portland State, Wyoming, or Fresno State to bump off the rust (not even some WSU or OSU). Given that, 15-23 (65%) for 164 with 2-0 TD/INT and 40 more rushing yards with 2 more TDs seems pretty good...

For the number 882 national recruit, a home run. Didn't have a great senior year, but as mentioned, an FWAA Freshman AA, started 37 of 38 games as a sophomore and junior playing over 1,000 snaps, receiving all Pac-12 HM honors both years. Oregon gave up 179 yards rushing in 2015 and 247 yards rushing in 2016 and then JS arrived in the middle and the next three seasons were: 128, 147, and 110. Personally feel pretty good about Popo and Williams being ready to step in for 2021, but I don't know if there were a lot of game ready options at that spot over the last 3-4 seasons if not for JS? At probably under 6-1, I don't know if he ever has been a slam dunk NFL prospect (despite taking a look at the draft prior to last season). Big guys who gobble up space still at a premium; but, I don't know if he ever has been seen as a impact guy on passing downs (even in high school). By all accounts he has worked on it, just hasn't seemed to translate.

I understand young QBs want to play, but Jay Butterfield just got here. I see suggestions one foot might be out the door (but with the "COVID do-over") JB is essentially going to be a true freshman again, the same as Ty Thompson. JB was 247's #5 PRO QB in 2020 and TT was #247's #4 PRO QB in 2021, I imagine if he went to any top 25 or better type program, he knew there was going to be some competition, why not hang around a bit and see how things shake out? (I guess the suggestion is TT is going to go all Slovis and lock the thing down as a true, but, that is far from determined). My guess is JB spends most of 2021 as #2 QB and competes for 2022. If TT wins, JB waits again as #2 in 2022, and if p.t. still looks unlikely, he graduates in 3 years and transfers with 3 years still to play with no penalty (of course that could all be wrong). I see a lot of optimism for 2022, but I could see a possible set of circumstances where the Ducks again face essentially 5 new starters on the OL along with KT leaving early for 2022. Georgia in Atlanta too. That's a lot for a NC run. 2023 looks more like it to me (Portland State, Texas Tech, Hawaii and 5 conference home games listed) with TT/JB hitting his QB stride, that young 2020 and 2021 OL group with more time under their belts, and maybe even a pair of guys like JTT and Cyrus Moss leading the way up front (ok that's a huge "what if" but that's kinda how you get there, no?).

Since Ashford enrolled and is playing baseball, I think he can't be drafted back into baseball until he is 21 or a junior? Of course he could leave to play elsewhere in both sports, but if baseball is going well, I could see him less likely to chase QB playing time elsewhere (of course that could be wrong).

In today's college football, QBs are gonna leave. The better the prospect, the faster the trigger it seems. While all different situations, Oregon is hardly unique (some that immediately pop to mind: JT Daniels, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, even the UW might have liked to keep Jake Haener around a bit longer). Even the likes of Alabama, tOSU, and Georgia haven't been able to keep everyone happy. It probably was NOT the best plan to invite a replay of a QB 1A and a QB 1B for the offense into 2021. Maybe the "two QB system" made some sense in 2020 and maybe it didn't? However, I'd say it absolutely makes NO sense to possibly run a repeat in 2021. There doesn't appear to be the same need for "QB insurance" in 2021 as in 2020 that brought in a grad transfer in the first place, and there now appears to be a natural QB progressions set in place from 2021 through 2024 (with several Brown/Thompson/Butterfield/Ashford permutations). The QB room looks ordered - and areas for competition established over a reasonably expected time frame. It also makes for a slightly more appealing situation for one QB commit in 2022. Obviously, ever program would love to have about six 5 and 4 star QBs where no one worries if they play, and everyone is happy to stick around to the end to just compete, with no internal staff/locker room/fan disharmony, but that seems increasingly unrealistic.

Different programs, different teams, different players, different coaches, different schemes. If one wants to make as close a direct comparison from basic statistics, it would probably be TS in 7 games as a sophomore and AB in 6 games as a junior: Shough: 106-167 (63%) for 1559 at 9.3 Y/A with 13/6 TD/INT for 160 pass rating. 271 rush yards at 4.1 ypc and 2 TDs Brown: 81-137 (59%) for 1250 at 9.1 Y/A with 9/2 TD/INT for 155 pass rating. 128 rush yards at 3.9 ypc and 2 TDs That's probably the best simple stats apples-to-apples comparison - beyond direct eyeball opinion on USC and Iowa State in 2020 (in that comparison, TS threw one INT every 27 passes, AB one INT every 68 passes). Accounting for different offensive schemes (if not just beyond one team regularly throwing the ball down field more than the other) and it appears at least a push; or, at the very least not too strong a case the numbers show AB is some how a career low ceiling guy, significantly different than TS. One was a RS sophomore and the other a RS junior, but it's not like there aren't numerous examples of 3 year starters whose worst statistical year out of the 3 was as a junior (so statistical improvement cannot just be assumed, only possible).

I guess I just don't understand the general lack of enthusiasm for AB. Do people realize to this point he has thrown 23 passes as a Duck (at 63%)? That isn't even a single game. That and 7 rushes at 5.7 yards per carry and 2 TDs. It wasn't even against South Dakota, Nicholls State, or Wyoming at home, but USC in the Pac-12 Championship game and against a top 10 Iowa State team in the Fiesta Bowl. Games he didn't even start or get to run the ones by himself as the starter. Is it because he overthrew a guy in the Fiesta Bowl and missed a TD? Well, it seems like we all watched Herbert make 2-4 head scratchers a game pretty much all four seasons? He turned out ok. Maybe AB can be allowed at least 3-4 such passes before we jump all over him? It isn't like he hadn't thrown a nice ball for a touchdown THE VERY PREVIOUS PLAY, called back for a hold. He later fumbled? Well, it was a very close play, and an obvious effort play (all several replays could confirm was it was very close, and you couldn't see anything to clearly change the original call. Different original call and the Ducks quite possibly keep the ball). Is it Boston College? Well, BC in terms of recent results and talent level (based on recruiting) has a lot more in common with teams like Colorado, Oregon State, Arizona, or Cal than anyone else in the Pac-12. He redshirted, started as a rFR, and battled through two major leg injuries. He played (over the relevant time frame) in a tradition run oriented, play action (pocket passing), pro style offense, with a future NFL back being the focus of the offense. His stats were pretty in-line with a developmental rated high school prospect, playing in an old school offense, that went 57-69 from 2010-2019 with a few Pinstripe and Quick Lane bowl type appearances, on teams with recruiting ratings somewhere between 55-65 nationally. He didn't come in and win the job at Oregon, but with COVID cancelling the season, then a rush to throw it all together, and an arguably pretty strong momentum generally in favor of TS, one wonders if the competition ever really got going - beyond AB coming back off injury and shaking off rust in the run up. JM was a couple months on staff when AB was brought in. Probably some evidence JM felt pretty good about the 4 years he saw on tape...

I don't think the (relatively straightforward) grading system is necessarily that hard to do, or necessarily introduces a ton of bias over the course of 100s of snaps (unless of course somehow it is intentional). I understand people may disagree. Their website does provide detail on exactly how they are doing it, for each position: PFF Player Grades Quarterback Play The most effective quarterback evaluation out there

Simple stats will always exist in sports (with limitations long recognized). Technology plus the growth in popularity of the sport has produced a whole wealth of "advanced metrics" which have become very popular (at least among those who wish to dive in). PFF, while still not perfect, has gone a long way to tie accurate numbers to the "eyeball test". Simple described as evaluating between -2 and 2 in 0.5 increments a single player's role in the success or failure of a play (given their role in the play). Sitting in the pocket and dropping a pass into a tight window to a WR streaking 30 yards downfield actually produces a better number than a 5 yard flip to a TE who rumbles those same 30 yards. Tradition stats capture each 30 yards play as identical, but "eyeballs" tell us one is "elite" while the other is basically "completing a lay-up". All QBs will have "should have been picked" passes dropped by the defense. Traditional stats will reflect having 1 or 6 of those per game as basically the same, PFF captures the difference. Grading QB success or failure per play, rather than just totaling up raw results, allows for accurately compiling a measure/grade of things such as accuracy to all levels of the field, completions under pressure, ability to create outside the pocket, decision making, sacks taken, turnover worthy plays, ability to make difficult throws, and so on, against one's contemporaries. PFF graded TS as 11th out of the 12 starting Pac-12 QBs in their 2020 Pac-12 wrap up. Essentially matching more of what [many] of us have argued seeing on the field. I'd argue as well creating a number accurately reflecting the amount of offense that was "left on the table" due to the plays being available - only not often enough made - due to low rated QB execution. Doesn't mean it can't get better, only what did happen in 2020.

Until somebody breaks through (LSU notwithstanding), it probably is hard to argue against just recycling the same teams at the top of college football - as absolutely unappealing (to many) as that might be. Odds must be pretty good taking Alabama, Clemson, and tOSU over the rest of the college football field in 2021? What has it been the last 7 years? 20 Alabama 19 LSU 18 Clemson 17 Alabama 16 Clemson 15 Alabama 14 Ohio State It wasn't even crazy long ago where we saw a 10 year run without a single repeat champion, and all P5 conferences with at least one. 04 USC 03 LSU 02 Ohio State 01 Miami 00 Oklahoma 99 Florida State 98 Tennessee 97 Michigan 96 Florida 95 Nebraska Although still "household names" at the top of college football recently, even a Georgia or Oklahoma breakthrough (in 2021) would be encouraging for the sport.