Oregon 4th Downs Failures: Playcalling vs. Execution?

[OregonDucks]

As I mentioned during the game, I disagreed with the call to go for the second 4th and short because a field goal would have cut the lead to a one possession game (TD + 2 point conversion).

 

That aside, there have been some talk about Nix staring down his primary (perhaps Bo is overly confident/reliant on Franklin) and not progressing through his reads against Washington.  Below is a screenshot that shows Holden wide open in the middle of the field on the second 4th and short that we did not convert. Holden was jumping up and down after the play, as he knew he was WIDE OPEN.

 

I'm sure that Nix would love to have this one back, as only the official is in position to make a play on the ball... 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by OregonDucks

[OregonDucks]

The last 4th down attempt also showed that the middle receiver was open.  I don't love this particular play design since the receivers on the left are in the same area.  As an OC, it seems like you'd have a few short yardage options that scheme a player wide open or you have some quick options B and C. 

 

I'm sure that the coaches will watch the film with Bo and, hopefully, he'll make adjustments for future games.

 

 

https://twitter.com/zacharycneel/status/1713627406228226415/photo/2

 

https://twitter.com/zacharycneel/status/1713645844837323258/photo/3

 

[David Marsh]

My Tuesday article will go a bit more into it...

 

but I do feel that play-calling could have been better. Giving Nix an opportunity to throw it when he has a super high completion percentage isn't entirely reckless but for some of those short yardage situations it feels like there were potentially some more creative ways to get those yards. The problem with those plays is that Nix was out of the pocket and already on the move and he had some pressure coming at him and he needed to get the ball out. Throwing the ball always comes with risk, risk of outright missing, risk of the receiver not catching it, risk of turning it over (whether by missing or a tip or anything unlucky).

 

I feel there were some ways to run the ball and get the yards.

[Mike West]

Excellent takes from both of you.  

 

I thought Bo rushed the 4th and three opportunity.  He didn't have a lot of time, but he had enough time to set his feet, and he didn't.  

 

UW was giving looks and forcing adjustments the second to last drive.  We wanted to run and they weren't going to let us.  I thought Stein was running out of options to run, and they were crowding the box.  

 

Deboer said they figured some tendencies out, and I think they were well prepared.  

 

Both those screenshots show open guys, the second one a much more difficult throw.  

 

I love this forum.  Talk about providing facts to support opinions.  Takes some if the sting off the decisions.  But ultimately, sometimes the safe route is a better route.

 

 

[Log Haulin]

As this game is rewatched. More and more missed opportunities will be exposed. The examples above are on Nix. 

 

We will find more. Every thing from execution to coaching decisions to officiating will be exposed.

 

The knee jerk reactions are understandable. Its what we do as fans.  Necessary to move on. 

 

Happy Monday, we have the cougs this week and prep starts today. Hope we can clean some of this up and the team gets their head right. Cougs are a dangerous team. And Ducks will need to be at the top of their game.

[Haywarduck]

For me it's......  

 

For the coaches, players, and some fans it is fodder for improvement and to ponder. To each his own.

[Log Haulin]

On 10/16/2023 at 6:33 AM, Haywarduck said:

For me it's......  

 

For the coaches, players, and some fans it is fodder for improvement and to ponder. To each his own.

Agree, what an amazing game. Regardless of outcome, best game I have ever watched.

[AnotherOD]

Interesting in the bottom photo you can count all 22 players on what is essentially half the field.

 

Maybe a good first or second down call; but, in a key late down situation, I would understand thoughts that the play doesn't seem to offer many options?

 

You can count 8 Ducks around the pocket so 3 receiving options and you can count as many as 7 UW in pass defense. So 3 versus 7 with only about half the field to defend?

 

And while Franklin is probably more open than the other two WRs, that looks like a pretty tough throw. It would have to go over the LB and fit between two nearby DBs, with Nix facing a soon to be oncoming rusher (so it might be hard for him to have time to step into a throw).

 

[JDuck]

On 10/15/2023 at 9:49 PM, Mike West said:

Excellent takes from both of you.  

 

I thought Bo rushed the 4th and three opportunity.  He didn't have a lot of time, but he had enough time to set his feet, and he didn't.  

 

UW was giving looks and forcing adjustments the second to last drive.  We wanted to run and they weren't going to let us.  I thought Stein was running out of options to run, and they were crowding the box.  

 

Deboer said they figured some tendencies out, and I think they were well prepared.  

 

Both those screenshots show open guys, the second one a much more difficult throw.  

 

I love this forum.  Talk about providing facts to support opinions.  Takes some if the sting off the decisions.  But ultimately, sometimes the safe route is a better route.

 

 

Couldn't believe they handed it off to Jordan James on the 3rd and 2 with 8 in the box, up the middle, just felt like Mari Cristbal nightmares all over again...no RPO or pitch option or something to get to the edge?  I seriously felt we lost the game right there, and knew it in my stomach.  One first down and clock runs out

[The Kamikaze Kid]

I think how easy this important  play was to defend is what has most fans upset.To me, the biggest drawback to the 4th down play call is that success can only be achieved if specific things happen that didn't. If the D line simply slides over staying in front of the QB (which they did), then the run option is gone. If the DBs stay with their receivers (which they did), the completion window shrinks. If the play is moving toward the sideline and is covered (which it was), there's no time or space to improv a plan B.

 

I'd say, the right call in that type of situation may be something generic with a bunch of options. In that moment I think I'd rather have the most seasoned QB in the country surveying the field and going with what ever option he sees as having the highest percentage of success. Having a dump off option to Bucky as a last resort seems like a good idea. Having a scramble option if a lane develops is also a must. Send receivers on quick high percentage routes to different parts of the field. Force them to defend 4-5 different options all at ounce while trying to contain a QB that can still run for it.

 

I didn't like how that play felt doomed from the start and hope to see a better play in the future. In the big picture, the Ducks did go up there and nearly beat one of the best teams in the country on the road. The glass is WAY more than just half full.

[Washington Waddler]

     Like the perspective of Alec Dietz in today’s RG. Failed attempts on 3rd down led to the do or die 4ths. Against a top ten team, that’s always going to be a huge challenge. The ‘back to the drawing board’ rehash for the coaching  staff needs to review how both plays contributed to outcome, and how they need to work together in order to achieve — not just the one.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Washington Waddler
spelling

[DuckFan93]

On 10/15/2023 at 9:49 PM, Mike West said:

 

I thought Bo rushed the 4th and three opportunity.  He didn't have a lot of time, but he had enough time to set his feet, and he didn't. 

 

 

Totally agree with you there - the limping version of Bo last year had a lot more fight than this year's healthy version.    Of course I understand he is trying to stay upright for NFL, but none of his runs showed effort or skill.

[Solar]

On 10/16/2023 at 8:56 AM, JDuck said:

Couldn't believe they handed it off to Jordan James on the 3rd and 2 with 8 in the box, up the middle, just felt like Mari Cristbal nightmares all over again...no RPO or pitch option or something to get to the edge?  I seriously felt we lost the game right there, and knew it in my stomach.  One first down and clock runs out

Was that the run out of the pistol? One of those last drive plays was a pistol dive into a stacked box for minus 1-2 yards. SUCH a slow developing play allowing the whole defense to converge on the point of attack.

 

Definitely Mastro/Arroyo/Cristobal bad memories came back on that one. Yuck.

[OregonDucks]

Another thing that I have a question about from the last 4th down is - why call a play where all of the receivers are running 10 yard routes, when we only needed 3 yards (to the Washington 44) for the first down? I believe that the play took 3-4 seconds to set up, which seems like an eternity in that situation.

[Solar]

On 10/15/2023 at 9:06 PM, David Marsh said:

My Tuesday article will go a bit more into it...

 

but I do feel that play-calling could have been better. Giving Nix an opportunity to throw it when he has a super high completion percentage isn't entirely reckless but for some of those short yardage situations it feels like there were potentially some more creative ways to get those yards. The problem with those plays is that Nix was out of the pocket and already on the move and he had some pressure coming at him and he needed to get the ball out. Throwing the ball always comes with risk, risk of outright missing, risk of the receiver not catching it, risk of turning it over (whether by missing or a tip or anything unlucky).

 

I feel there were some ways to run the ball and get the yards.

Yeah our OL excels at creating a clean pocket for Bo when he steps back. We lost that when the play goes lateral taking 3 of our OL out of the play, and almost none of the D while setting a timer on Bo. No room or time for Bo to improvise.

 

In the pocket he could throw where the pressure is coming from or if a lane opens up after a bit take it a little ways to draw the second level and dump it off to a short route or RB for a first down.

 

And in short yardage the field is already compacted vertically, so why cut it in half horizontally too. It's an anti-spread play. Let's give the offense as little room to work as possible.

 

I really hope someone points out to Stein  what Stanford did to Colorado with 50 straight slant passes to a dominant possession receiver. It was an unstoppable high percentage pass for a stressed young QB.

[Solar]

On 10/15/2023 at 6:20 PM, OregonDucks said:

 

That aside, there have been some talk about Nix staring down his primary (perhaps Bo is overly confident/reliant on Franklin) and not progressing through his reads against Washington.  Below is a screenshot that shows Holden wide open in the middle of the field on the second 4th and short that we did not convert. Holden was jumping up and down after the play, as he knew he was WIDE OPEN.

 

I'm sure that Nix would love to have this one back, as only the official is in position to make a play on the ball... 

 

This hurts because Holden is a fantastic possession receiver. 

[Haywarduck]

On 10/16/2023 at 12:12 PM, Solar said:

This hurts because Holden is a fantastic possession receiver. 

Also that play should have the qb watching to see if the db's switch or, like in this situation, the receiver is wide open because the play causes confusion. There was no confusion with what Franklin was doing, it was a timing throw. Nix made up his mind of where to throw it before the snap.

 

Wait a minute, water under the bridge, dooh! 

[Mike West]

On 10/16/2023 at 8:56 AM, JDuck said:

Couldn't believe they handed it off to Jordan James on the 3rd and 2 with 8 in the box, up the middle, just felt like Mari Cristbal nightmares all over again...no RPO or pitch option or something to get to the edge?  I seriously felt we lost the game right there, and knew it in my stomach.  One first down and clock runs out

I'm with you on that.  I didn't like the look the Fuskies gave.  Hard to say what to do with it- they know the team better than we do- but I felt dread before the play started.

[Threeputt]

If my memory is correct, the second 4th down failure actually worked out as they forced a punt deep in UW territory, got a short field, and scored a TD. 

[DuckFan93]

On 10/16/2023 at 11:58 AM, Solar said:

Was that the run out of the pistol? One of those last drive plays was a pistol dive into a stacked box for minus 1-2 yards. SUCH a slow developing play allowing the whole defense to converge on the point of attack.

 

Definitely Mastro/Arroyo/Cristobal bad memories came back on that one. Yuck.

Way too many plays of running up the middle and seeing what happens.    When we need 2-3 yards, why not running around the pile where there is a lot of open space?  It's simple math right?   Or am I too naive?

[Bigplay Ducks]

https://www.si.com/college/2023/10/15/analyzing-oregon-failed-fourth-down-attempts-washington-loss

 

A lot of OBD members should read this article. Analytics has changed the game, and conventional 4th down wisdom doesn't apply anymore.  As you can see in the article, and also mentioned by Lanning, the only questionable 4th down decision was not kicking the FG before halftime.  Execution on the other hand, leaves much to be desired.  But the decision making was sound. 

[Just Ducky]

 Some of these young coaches seem to treat 4th down like they are playing video games, Madden for instance. Not  sure how to get that out of their heads.

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/18/2023 at 10:09 AM, Just Ducky said:

 Some of these young coaches seem to treat 4th down like they are playing video games, Madden for instance. Not  sure how to get that out of their heads.

What funny is what John Madden would say...."Take the Damn Points!"

 

[Brian]

I'm going to repost some comments that I had from another message, because I think this touches on a larger issue....

 

Fourth down calls:  I encourage coach Lanning to be aggressive, and trust his players, and win first downs.  That being said, the next step is to have a plan, a strategy.  What typically happens on key fourth-down plays, is a coach calls time out, discusses the call with his assistant coaches, lines up, and runs a play that allows the D to catch their breath, rotate players, and stack the box.  Unfortunately, I believe that scenario puts the odds back in the D's favor.

 

What Oregon needs is a reliable system that puts the odds in their favor.  Chip was the first Oregon coach to take on the philosophy of 'going for it on fourth down', and a master of in-game momentum.  However, he had a system of playing fast and wearing out a defense.  By the time the Ducks either went for it on fourth down, or got deep in the red zone, the defense was so gassed (and didn't have time to rotate players) that Oregon could just run through arm tackles.  Coach Lanning doesn't understand this, Coach Cristobal didn't understand this, and neither did coach Helfrich.

 

I really like coach Lanning and believe he's doing a tremendous job!  Oregon went on the road to face a very good team, with a hostile crowd, and put themselves in position to win.  Oregon was and is the better team.  The stats are impressive!

[Triphibius]

Brian's comment reminds me of another aspect of Kelly's tenure: the read option. 

It was unstoppable on fourth down because in the Pete Carroll days no one knew how to defend it, and Masoli was willing and able to take the contact. 

Chip may have had "big ball," but he also had a play no one could defend well. 

 

What bothered me most was not the decision to go for it, but the peculiar play calls. 

The commentary by Joel Klatt was convincing. Why roll Bo out twice when all we needed was two or three yards?

Why eliminate Franklin from the play at midfiedl by rolling away from him? 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Bravo Brian! When Lanning begins to embrace the chess match of 4th down decisions instead of just a one size fits all pedal to the metal mentality, he may become the most dangerous coach in the country.

[Haywarduck]

I always find analytics interesting when you watch golf. The broadcaster will say a pro golfer should make 80% of his putts from 5'. You then watch a pro golfer miss the 5' putt, because the pressure is on and it isn't a standard putt used to analyze the statistic being referred too.

 

The same can be said in football about a hostile environment at the end of the half. People that use statistics to drive everything need to understand context too. This is where Lanning will learn that when the noise is deafening, and you want your kicker to have a chip shot to practice in this environment, you kick the damn field goal.

 

That way the kicker has a chance to make the 40 plus yarder at the end of the game. Without the practice at the end of the half that 40 yd. field goal looked like it was 60 yds.

 

So statistics are interesting, but just like driving a car, they aren't quite ready for every situation. A good driver needs to read every situation and make some judgement calls. A good coach needs to read the situation and understand all the variables. I don't think Lanning quite figured out all the moving parts when he made the decision at the end of the half, just looked at his chart.

 

He is getting paid too much to just refer to his chart. He needs to process all that is going on, and have a bit more foresight.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 10/18/2023 at 7:22 PM, Haywarduck said:

I always find analytics interesting when you watch golf. The broadcaster will say a pro golfer should make 80% of his putts from 5'. You then watch a pro golfer miss the 5' putt, because the pressure is on and it isn't a standard putt used to analyze the statistic being referred too.

 

The same can be said in football about a hostile environment at the end of the half. People that use statistics to drive everything need to understand context too. This is where Lanning will learn that when the noise is deafening, and you want your kicker to have a chip shot to practice in this environment, you kick the damn field goal.

 

That way the kicker has a chance to make the 40 plus yarder at the end of the game. Without the practice at the end of the half that 40 yd. field goal looked like it was 60 yds.

 

So statistics are interesting, but just like driving a car, they aren't quite ready for every situation. A good driver needs to read every situation and make some judgement calls. A good coach needs to read the situation and understand all the variables. I don't think Lanning quite figured out all the moving parts when he made the decision at the end of the half, just looked at his chart.

 

He is getting paid too much to just refer to his chart. He needs to process all that is going on, and have a bit more foresight.

 

 

I miss at least 80% of my 5-foot putts. And often, it takes 2 putts to get the darn ball 5 feet from the cup.

 

But it pressure pressure-packed! We are playing for 50 cents a hole!

[Jon Joseph]

I'm not certain about analytics but I do think that it is easier to make 1st downs on 4th downs when you are playing Portland State, Hawaii, and CU, instead of Oregon State and UW. Ducks were 8-10 on 4th down coming into Seattle but consider the opposition.

 

As Hayward noted, you have to play an opponent and not just the percentages. And the percentages will change based on the quality of the opponent. If the opponent you are playing does not affect your decision, then something is wrong (youth, inexperience, arrogance?) and you may as well simply use a computer to dial up plays.

 

One size does not fit all. I'm an old-school guy and IMO unless the score and game clock dictate otherwise, you best be certain of a better than a 70% chance of scoring the TD when you decide to eschew an almost certain 3 points within the opponent's 10-yard line. Especially, when you are an underdog on the road.

 

And if you go for the TD, you best have the right play called. 

 

4th down to ice the game? OK, but it's not like Penix was driving UW up and down the field the entire game.

[Log Haulin]

Every time this thread makes it 4 or 5 threads down the front page I cross my fingers and hold my breath. Then my hopes are dashed and I start drinking. 

[Solar]

On 10/18/2023 at 5:20 PM, Log Haulin said:

Every time this thread makes it 4 or 5 threads down the front page I cross my fingers and hold my breath. Then my hopes are dashed and I start drinking. 

And you posted this, so you could have another round, sneaky guy.

[Mike West]

On 10/18/2023 at 5:10 PM, Jon Joseph said:

I'm not certain about analytics but I do think that it is easier to make 1st downs on 4th downs when you are playing Portland State, Hawaii, and CU, instead of Oregon State and UW. Ducks were 8-10 on 4th down coming into Seattle but consider the opposition.

 

As Hayward noted, you have to play an opponent and not just the percentages. And the percentages will change based on the quality of the opponent. If the opponent you are playing does not affect your decision, then something is wrong (youth, inexperience, arrogance?) and you may as well simply use a computer to dial up plays.

 

One size does not fit all. I'm an old-school guy and IMO unless the score and game clock dictate otherwise, you best be certain of a better than a 70% chance of scoring the TD when you decide to eschew an almost certain 3 points within the opponent's 10-yard line. Especially, when you are an underdog on the road.

 

And if you go for the TD, you best have the right play called. 

 

4th down to ice the game? OK, but it's not like Penix was driving UW up and down the field the entire game.

I think it's a though call period.  Pressure on the line, reputation, titles....

 

These were game planned.  I think Washington's 4th down calls were too.

 

The play choices were accurate.  So it boils down to do you follow your game plan or not.  

 

 

 Given the facts as Lanning explained them, I'd take at least one shot.  Not punting made me fret.  Then our safety ran past a sure INT. Then Penix hit Another ridiculously covered WR.

 

What are the chances he drives a full field? I just don't know.  What were the chances we erase an 11 point deficit?  

 

What are the odds for anything lol.

 

I kick the first FG.  But man, a wide open WR as the second progression?  Nix hardly forces passes.  What are the odds he does that twice in a game?

 

Those damn odds.  Are they even reliable.   What are the odds of that.

 

My head hurts.  

 

Where's Han Solo and 3P0 when you need them?

 

And the million dollar question is: will Lanning game plan 4th down calls anymore?

Edited October 19, 2023 by Mike West