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Georgia, Ohio St/Michigan

 

Wins against currently USA Today Coaches top 25 ranked teams

4-Florida St – (14) LSU

5-UW – (6) Oregon, (15) Osewe, (16) Arizona

6-Oregon – none

7-Texas – (8) Alabama, (20) Kansas St

8-Alabama – (12) Ole Miss, (14) LSU, (23) Tennessee

9-Louisville – (17) Notre Dame, (24) NC State
 
As a Ducks fan even I can't fathom Florida State in front of UW.
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Oregon stays ahead of Texas on Tuesday and it will be due to the Eye Test.

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The CFP committee could make their case for having Texas and Bama jump the Ducks

 

Utah and SC getting thumped yesterday hurts the Duck SOS. The Ducks Top 25 victories have simply disappeared from the 2023 schedule.......

 

Thankfully many talking heads are spouting that the Ducks are playing the best football now. I think Georgia and Bama may be right with Ducks.

 

Beating a rank OSU snd a top 5 husky team will revive the SOS.

 

Go Ducks.....

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Maybe a case can be made for Oregon destroying the competition. 

 

Every team Oregon plays collapses for the duration of season.

Even UW has played more poorly since that fateful Oct night.

 

Oregon isn't just winning. They are destroying teams. Like for real!

 

So, they should remain higher ranked than AL or UT.

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Oregon Ducks jump ahead of Alabama in national championship betting odds

 

We’re coming down to it in the world of college football, and with rivalry week followed by conference championship week, some major things are going to be decided over the next 14 days.

 

Spots in the College Football Playoff are up for grabs, as are spots in New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.

 

If you’re a fan of the Oregon Ducks, both of those things are extremely relevant. With a pair of wins over the next two weeks, it’s incredibly likely that the Ducks can achieve both and play in their second-ever playoff.

 

Should Oregon get a spot in the playoff, there’s a decent chance that they will be favored to win their first game, as well, with a good shot in the championship game against whomever they should face.

 

On Sunday, we looked at the updated odds for the Heisman Trophy, where Oregon QB Bo Nix leads the way.

 

Now let’s take a look at the odds of winning the national championship, courtesy of FanDuel SportsBook...

 

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

After a win over Arizona State, the Oregon Ducks now have the fourth-best odds to win the national championship, passing...

 

 

 

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On 11/19/2023 at 11:11 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Oregon stays ahead of Texas on Tuesday and it will be due to the Eye Test.

Ok, Jon time to put you to the test.

 

What would Oregon have to do to win the "eye test" in your opinion.  They're currently favored by -13.5. Vegas is predicting a win but the Beavers to cover.  They're also taking the Over (62).

 

What passes the "eye test" (assuming they aren't upset) ?  My guess: 45-24 Oregon.  State won't cover.

Edited by Mic
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ESPN - Week 13 Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Strength of Record Rankings (SOR)

 

1, Georgia - SOS 65 - SOR 5

 

2. Ohio State - SOS 45 - SOR 2

 

3. Michigan - SOS 59 - SOR 3

 

4. FSU - SOS 62 - SOR 4

 

5. Washington - SOS 35 - SOR 1

 

6. OREGON - SOS 63 - SOR 9

 

7. Texas - SOS 9 - SOR 6

 

8. Alabama - SOS - 28 - SOR 7

 

By any metric other than the Eye Test, UW should be ranked no lower than 4. And UW assuming UW TCB's against WSU, should jump the loser of the Ohio State vs. Michigan (-4) game to #3 before the Pac-12 champ game.

 

Oregon is at 6, based solely on the Eye Test and not the metrics. This could change come Tuesday. Fortunately, last Saturday Bama swallowed a cupcake and UT defeated an unranked team and did not look great in doing so.

 

Down to the wire and as insignificant as it may seem, Utah flaming out in Tucson and that phantom PI call on Ferguson, does not help Puddles cause. Ditto for CU and WSU going into the tank.

 

Oregon's bowl team wins - Texas Tech, USC, Utah, and perhaps, Cal. WSU if the Cougars find a way to defeat UW but that would hurt Oregon's quality loss. Both UT and Bama have 2+ top-25 wins. I'm hoping the Ct. will drop 4-loss TN out of the top 25 and also Kansas taking away a top-25 win from both Bama and UT.

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On 11/19/2023 at 3:16 PM, DanLduck said:

Maybe a case can be made for Oregon destroying the competition. 

 

Every team Oregon plays collapses for the duration of season.

Even UW has played more poorly since that fateful Oct night.

 

Oregon isn't just winning. They are destroying teams. Like for real!

 

So, they should remain higher ranked than AL or UT.

I hope so but overall IMO, the Eye Test should not trump metrics and Oregon has the poorest metrics of the 8 PO contenders.

 

If all that matters is the Eye Test, then teams should schedule no team worth a darn OOC. 

 

Today, Bama would be ranked higher if it had played Rice and not Texas. Texas is not getting Ct. credit for winning in Tuscaloosa so why not play Vandy instead? An 11-1 UT with a win over Vandy would still be in the PO hunt.

 

And UW, OR, MI, OH ST, and UT are getting no credit for a 9-game conference schedule.

 

The Ct. makes it up as it sees fit. Including ranking MO. as the top 2L team, LSU as the top 3L team, and having 37, now 4L, Tennessee ranked 18 last week.

 

SOS has never mattered to the PO Ct. This better change comes next season.

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On 11/20/2023 at 11:52 AM, Jon Joseph said:

SOS has never mattered to the PO Ct. This better change comes next season.

Yes, I understand all that but what constitutes the "eye test"?  

 

Does Oregon need to win by 15, 25, 35?  Does Bo need 6 more TD's?  (won't happen)  Does covering the -13.5 points pass?  Does it mean TT gets into the game again like last Saturday and takes the knee to end the contest?  Or does any win make it a pass?

 

I'm not trying to be contentious - just curious as to what you think Oregon has to do Friday to pass an eye test with the selection committee.

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I never liked the idea of basing SoS based on where teams are at this late I to the season because no team is the same as the year goes on. 

 

Colorado and USV both imploded big time when they were met with with teams that could beat them. Both fell apart down the stretch and yeah it's easy to say neither team was all that good. 

 

But earlier in the season they were in different places. 

 

Utah was a team that hung around in the top 25 for a long time with loads of injuries until they finally fell apart. Does that make them a bad team for the entirety of the season? No, but they fell apart down the stretch. Week 5 Utah was a very different team than week 12 Utah. 

 

You can say I'm just bitter that Oregon doesn't have any top 25 wins at this point when Oregon has played and beaten a good few top 25 teams over the course of the year but they aren't anymore. 

 

I mean if Oregon thunos the Beavers real good this week and the Beavers lose a bowl game they might not be a top 25 team for the final poll as well. 

 

I'd also say that Arizona is a way different team now than they they narrowly lost to Washington. If that game was to be replayed today I'd bet on Zona without a second thought but Washington didn't play the current Zona team, they played the team from the end of September which was worse than they are today. 

 

Rankings shift as the year goes on... Oregon is not the same team they were in mid October when they lost to Washington. And if they play in the conference championship game they'll be a different team then.

 

Teams suffer injuries both minor and major and teams lose focus. We'll see which teams are left standing regardless of their records. 

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On 11/20/2023 at 10:50 PM, David Marsh said:

I never liked the idea of basing SoS based on where teams are at this late I to the season because no team is the same as the year goes on. 

 

Colorado and USV both imploded big time when they were met with with teams that could beat them. Both fell apart down the stretch and yeah it's easy to say neither team was all that good. 

 

But earlier in the season they were in different places. 

 

Utah was a team that hung around in the top 25 for a long time with loads of injuries until they finally fell apart. Does that make them a bad team for the entirety of the season? No, but they fell apart down the stretch. Week 5 Utah was a very different team than week 12 Utah. 

 

You can say I'm just bitter that Oregon doesn't have any top 25 wins at this point when Oregon has played and beaten a good few top 25 teams over the course of the year but they aren't anymore. 

 

I mean if Oregon thunos the Beavers real good this week and the Beavers lose a bowl game they might not be a top 25 team for the final poll as well. 

 

I'd also say that Arizona is a way different team now than they they narrowly lost to Washington. If that game was to be replayed today I'd bet on Zona without a second thought but Washington didn't play the current Zona team, they played the team from the end of September which was worse than they are today. 

 

Rankings shift as the year goes on... Oregon is not the same team they were in mid October when they lost to Washington. And if they play in the conference championship game they'll be a different team then.

 

Teams suffer injuries both minor and major and teams lose focus. We'll see which teams are left standing regardless of their records. 

David, great points. I respectfully disagree, in part.

 

Being a top-25 team and having a great SOS preseason and early in the season, is meaningless come the end of the season. There is no way the Committee will consider the Ducks win over CU, for example, as being a significant win. 

 

Preseason SOS is simply an exercise of looking at the teams on the schedule and how the teams finished last season. By Week 13, both SOS and SOR track what has happened this season. 

 

On December 3rd, when the Committee's ultimate ranking is released you will know how many wins, if any, a given team accomplished against the ultimate Ct. top 25. And also know whether a loss, like a 3-point loss in Seattle vs. 5-ranked UW, is a good loss. 

 

Yes, injuries will happen. And this can hurt a team's record down the road. The team you defeated in the season may not be as good at the season's end. Conversely, a team like Texas Tech, can claw back from 3-5, go 6-5 and bowl eligibility, and help the SOS for a team like Oregon that defeated it. 

 

Oregon has defeated 4 bowl-eligible teams and lost a close game against #5. UW should move up to 4 on Tuesday. If Oregon defeats Oregon State, wins the Pac-12 champ game against a top 4 ranked UW, and finishes 12-1 as a conference champ, Oregon will look darn good for a PO spot.

 

An 11-1 Ohio State and especially an 11-1 Michigan, will be out of it. 12-1 Louisville has a bad loss at Pitt and even should it defeat FSU, will not jump the Ducks. 12-1 Texas, with more top-25 wins than Oregon and a win over Bama will be dicey. A 12-1 non-conference champ Georgia would have to be found to be 'unequivocally' better than 12-1 conference champ Oregon.

 

I am not that concerned that a 12-1 Oregon with a win over UW will be left out of the Final 4. If this does happen, it will happen because other than for Arizona which climbed its way into the top 25, and UW, and Oregon, since 8 Pac-12 teams were ranked, many of the teams have floundered. 

 

One reason this has happened is due to playing 9 conference games in a deep conference. But will the CT take this into account? 

 

GO DUCKS! DAM THE BEACERS! Then, Payback Time for UW.

 

Before 12/3, that's all we can with certainty, ask for.

 

If the Beavers lose their bowl game it will not matter to the Ct. The Ct. does not release a ranking after 12/3.

 

Root hard for Florida and Texas Tech. One of Ohio State/Michigan will lose.

Edited by Jon Joseph
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On 11/19/2023 at 1:05 PM, HDuck said:

6-Oregon – none

Is it Oregon's fault that they ruined previously ranked teams' seasons?  I choose to believe Oregon broke the spirit of some teams!

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On 11/20/2023 at 1:24 PM, Mic said:

My guess: 45-24 Oregon.  State won't cover.

image.thumb.png.56d9e342fc42369b2087c9e61e8f0236.png

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On 11/20/2023 at 11:52 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I hope so but overall IMO, the Eye Test should not trump metrics and Oregon has the poorest metrics of the 8 PO contenders.

 

If all that matters is the Eye Test, then teams should schedule no team worth a darn OOC. 

 

Jon, for me the "Eye Test" in this next game would be a performance like we saw in Tempe where the Ducks jump out on top first and never look back.  OSU is much better than ASU so this game won't be a run-away like that one; but to "pass the eye test" Oregon needs to win this one without any doubt.  No last second heroics to pull it out of the fire.  No letting OSU dictate the pace of the game or hold the lead even, for more than just a series.  

 

Oregon also probably needs to "cover the spread" that Vegas has assigned it (-13.5) regardless of whether or not the O/U is met or exceeded.  In other words: it needs to be a decisive, conclusive win with Oregon clearly the dominant team.  I'm hoping/guessing 45-24 or some such.

 

While any win is a good win, and even a one point win will move Oregon along to a rematch with UW, if we're discussing "Eye Test" for the CFP Selection Committee, Oregon needs to make this game a backbreaker for the Beavers.  Otherwise, I fear Texas, with it's early season win over a then-struggling Alabama will threaten Oregon's position with the Committee.  It shouldn't - but Alabama has a lot of clout with the CFP boys.

 

Unless, of course, Oregon in a rematch can throttle UW decisively.  Which I think they just might.  Then what, CFP?  They'd have made their own bed (building up UW) and now they couldn't deny a surging Oregon.  All just my own opinion - for whatever that's worth...

 

There's a lot of football yet to be played to get Oregon that far.

Edited by Mic
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Kirk Herbstreit Thinks 1-Loss Team Is Lock For Playoff If They Win Out

 

Kirk Herbstreit is high on one team's chances to make the College Football Playoff if it wins out.

 

Herbstreit thinks Oregon, which is currently No. 6 in the latest CFP rankings, is a lock for the CFP if it wins out...

 

"You win those two games, and Oregon is going to be in the playoff. They deserve to be at that place right now," Herbstreit said on Tuesday.

 

Oregon is set to play No. 15 Oregon State on Saturday as part of "rivalry week." If Oregon wins, it'll improve to 11-1 and advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game to play No. 4 Washington. 

 

Both wins could be enough to get the Ducks into the CFP since they'd be 12-1 overall. 

 

To get to that second game though, the Ducks will have to win this first one on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET.

 

To access the article, click here.

 

 

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College Football Playoff projections: The Game's leverage

 

There is nothing bigger than No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan on Saturday, and the Allstate Playoff Predictor has weighed the odds of each team making the College Football Playoff depending on the outcome.

 

The predictor also has some surprising results in looking ahead to the Pac-12 championship game, should sixth-ranked Oregon win against Oregon State on Friday and face No. 4 Washington in the championship in Week 14.

 

A look at the numbers as Rivalry Week has arrived...

 

WWW.ESPN.COM

Ohio State at Michigan takes center stage in Week 13 as the playoff predictor weighs each team's CFP chances based on the...

 

 

 

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Oregon has among best national championship odds ahead of Pac-12 Championship Game

 

We knew that by the end of the season, if the Oregon Ducks could take care of business and keep winning every game in front of them, there was a good chance they’d have every preseason goal still standing in front of them.

 

One of those goals is obviously to win the national championship, and while there haven’t been a ton of upsets ahead of them in the standings, the Ducks are still standing as one of the most favored teams to win the whole thing, according to Las Vegas sportsbooks.

 

With the loss of Ohio State ahead of them and the struggle from Florida State with a backup quarterback, we saw both the Buckeyes and Seminoles fall a bit on the odds board. That allowed others to take advantage and move up.

 

Here are the latest national championship odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook...

 

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

With one game remaining, the Oregon Ducks have among the best odds in the nation to win the national championship in 2023.

 

 

 

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Predicting the CFP: What does committee do with Oregon and Ohio State after Week 13?

 

Another week has passed, and once again, the college football landscape has been largely devoid of chaos near the top of the rankings.

 

That’s not to say that the upsets didn’t give a great effort on Saturday of Rivalry Week, the final week of the regular season.

 

We saw No. 1 Georgia win by a single score, while No. 4 Washington got a game-winning field goal at the horn in the Apple Cup, and No. 8 Alabama managed a miraculous game-winning touchdown on 4th and 31 with under a minute remaining in the Iron Bowl.

 

Elsewhere, No. 5 Florida State survived, while the No. 6 Oregon Ducks blew the doors off of No. 15 Oregon State in the Civil War. Meanwhile, the biggest result was between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan, where the Wolverines won The Big Game for the third straight season.

 

That now leaves us with an interesting question for the College Football Playoff committee — where do they rank the Buckeyes?

 

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

A prediction of what the College Football Playoff rankings will look like after Week 13 of action.

 

 

 

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Ducks open -7.5 vs. UW in the Pac-12's last champ game. I think the line will be bet up in favor of Oregon during the week. 

 

Et tu J. Smith? Not only was Oregon State dominated by the Ducks, but its coach is joining the B1G party and will be on the sidelines in 2024 when Michigan State travels to Eugene. 

 

Oregon State fans are blaming Smith's departure on Phil Knight, Penny Knight, Rob Mullens, Puddles, NIKE, OREGON, UW, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC, CU, Utah, Arizona, and ASU, along with Robert Murdoch, Mickey Mouse, and Connor Stalions. 

 

GO DUCKS! Crap out UW's perfect season in Las Vegas.

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WWW.ON3.COM

College football analyst Joel Klatt revealed his new top 10 rankings after an exciting...

 

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Which teams are most likely to make the College Football Playoff?

 

The regular season has come to an end, but we’ve got a full weekend of conference championship games that will hold massive ramifications when it comes to deciding which teams end up making it to the College Football Playoff.

 

Things start on Friday night with a matchup between No. 3 Washington and No. 5 Oregon, and are followed by a game between No. 7 Texas and No. 20 Oklahoma State, plus No. 1 Georgia and No. 8 Alabama.

 

We will also get pivotal games between No. 4 Florida State and No. 10 Louisville, plus No. 2 Michigan and No. 17 Iowa.

 

Based on who wins those games, we will know who gets into the CFP. You can assume that winners of conference championships get in, but when it comes to teams like Texas, Louisville, or Iowa, there may still be some questions, even if they end up winning.

 

However, for Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Washington, and Florida State, it seems that a win means they’re in.

 

So how confident should each team feel about their chances? That’s where we turn to the betting market to get a true sense.

 

Here are the latest betting odds for each team to get into the playoff, according to FanDuel Sportsbook...

 

DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

A look at the latest betting odds for each conference title contender to get into the College Football Playoff next week.

 

 

 

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College football Week 13 takeaways: All eyes on Washington

 

Conference championship week is upon us. This weekend, front-runners like Georgia, Washington and Michigan will try to cap their undefeated seasons and likely seal spots in the playoff. Others will try to play their way in -- and some will just try to spoil the party.

 

Washington, in particular, has a lot on the line: a rematch with No. 6 Oregon that has playoff, Heisman and historical implications.

 

Ohio State will watch the weekend's games from home and hope that there is just enough chaos to send the Buckeyes to the playoff -- without a Big Ten title -- for a second consecutive year.

 

It's also a good time to look back at what some teams that aren't playoff bound -- such as Dave Doeren's sneaky good NC State team -- accomplished this year.

 

ESPN's college football reporters take it all in with the Week 13 takeaways...

 

WWW.ESPN.COM

While Washington and Oregon have a lot to prove in their conference championship game, Ohio State will be watching and...

 

 

 

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On 11/20/2023 at 12:42 PM, Jon Joseph said:

ESPN - Week 13 Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Strength of Record Rankings (SOR)

 

1, Georgia - SOS 65 - SOR 5

 

2. Ohio State - SOS 45 - SOR 2

 

3. Michigan - SOS 59 - SOR 3

 

4. FSU - SOS 62 - SOR 4

 

5. Washington - SOS 35 - SOR 1

 

6. OREGON - SOS 63 - SOR 9

 

 

I'm curious how UWs SOS is so much higher than Oregon's. They only played one currently ranked team, Arizona, and their OOC schedule was weak like ours (Boise St 7-5, Tulsa 4-8, Mich St. 4-8).

 

 

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On 11/27/2023 at 3:25 PM, Desert Duck said:

 

I'm curious how UWs SOS is so much higher than Oregon's. They only played one currently ranked team, Arizona, and their OOC schedule was weak like ours (Boise St 7-5, Tulsa 4-8, Mich St. 4-8).

 

 

GIGO?

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On 11/27/2023 at 3:28 PM, Jon Joseph said:

GIGO?

Actually - I kinda forgot and overlooked that, in addition to Arizona, UW played one other Top 20 team, and won...

 

I like to sometimes block out bad memories 😉

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Predicting the Playoff Rankings entering Championship Weekend

 

It’s the end of an era.

 

Tonight will mark the last instance in which we have a Tuesday show to debate the 4-team Playoff.

 

Pour one out. It’ll be missed.

 

We’ll never forget the endless debates about teams 16 through 20 as if it has any bearing whatsoever on the top 4. Who could ignore the “don’t sleep on this team” lines from the college football analysts during the 18 minutes it takes to release a top 4 that didn’t change.

 

Appreciate this final Tuesday rankings show of the 4-team era, and watch it for all 2 minutes of its relevance.

 

Here’s how I think the top 10 will shake out...

 

SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM

How will the College Football Playoff rankings shake out heading into conference championship weekend?

 

 

 

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WATCH: Could Alabama make the CFP? Joel Klatt runs through CFP scenarios | Joel Klatt Show

 

WWW.FOXSPORTS.COM

Joel Klatt ran through CFP scenarios before the selection show on Sunday. He explained a matchup between all the favorites in the...

 

 

 

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Kirk Herbstreit Names 'Doomsday' Scenario For College Football Playoff

 

The college football season has reached the most important week on the calendar as conference championships are set to be decided. 

 

Teams can punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff by taking care of business on Saturday, while others will see their championship hopes ended after crushing losses.

 

There are a handful of teams that have the opportunity to find their way into the playoff, with some simply needing a win to get the job done. 

 

Others will need a little more help to qualify, and ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit says there's a scenario that could shake up the sport as we know it.

 

"If Alabama wins, and Michigan wins, and Oregon or Washington win and Texas wins...what the hell do you do?," asked Herbstreit on a recent episode of Pardon My Take...

 

To access the details in the article, click here.

 

 

 

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On 11/19/2023 at 11:05 AM, HDuck said:

Georgia, Ohio St/Michigan

 

Wins against currently USA Today Coaches top 25 ranked teams

4-Florida St – (14) LSU

5-UW – (6) Oregon, (15) Osewe, (16) Arizona

6-Oregon – none

7-Texas – (8) Alabama, (20) Kansas St

8-Alabama – (12) Ole Miss, (14) LSU, (23) Tennessee

9-Louisville – (17) Notre Dame, (24) NC State
 
As a Ducks fan even I can't fathom Florida State in front of UW.

 

You can now add Oregon State to Oregon's tally.  

 

Utah should be ranked. Would anyone pick Kansas State, LSU, NC State or Tennessee to beat Utah on a neutral field?

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What conference championship game outcomes help Oregon's CFP chances?

 

Following the release of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday afternoon, the stage is now set for championship weekend.

 

There are currently eight Power Five teams with at least 11 wins, taking up the top eight spots in the CFP rankings, and all but No. 6 Ohio State, who lost last weekend at No. 2 Michigan, are set to compete for their conference titles on Friday or Saturday.

 

Oregon currently sits fifth after Tuesday’s rankings, and will need to beat No. 3 Washington in the final Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas on Friday to have a chance to compete for a national title.

 

If the Ducks win, they are likely in.

 

After nearly getting the help they needed last weekend, with No. 4 Florida State, No. 8 Alabama, and the Huskies squeaking past their in-state rivals, Oregon will still need some things to fall its way in order to guarantee a spot in the final four-team CFP before next year’s expansion to a 12-team format.

 

Assuming that Oregon wins this weekend, let’s break down the Ducks' chances to reach their second CFP...

 

247SPORTS.COM

Here is a rundown of where Duck fans rooting interest should be during this weekend's conference championship games

 

 

 

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If we would have had this sort of potential chaos in prior years, an expanded playoff would have come about sooner.

 

For instance, this year, if 'Bama were to beat Georgia, but FSU, Michigan and ewe dub (I know, ain't gonna happen, but bear with me) all win, they have to put 'Bama and all those 13 - 0 teams in and the two-time with one loss in three years defending Champ is left out.

 

If that had happened in previous years, the next year the playoffs would have been expanded, or the SEC would have succeeded from the NCAA and held their own tournament.

 

Of course, if the above happens, ESPN still has enough time and money to expand the playoffs this year!

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WATCH: Pac-12 Champ with sights set on College Football Playoff | Updated CFP rankings chat with Ash & Yogi

 

 

 

 

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