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cartm25

Oregon Opens as 9.5 Point Favorite in Pac-12 Championship Game

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Not sure about you, but that 9.5 feels a bit high, no?

 

I realize the Ducks have looked stronger and stronger, but Penix and those WR will still be a problem . . . and both teams will be motivated.

 

I'm picking the Ducks to win a close one, but hoping they blow UW out!

 

image.thumb.png.6ad715faeb1a0044b44af089b9c6c3e7.png

 

https://espnbet.com/sport/football/organization/united-states/competition/ncaaf/featured-page?conference=FilterOption%3APacific-12

 

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I want to see Oregon crush the puppies by 28+.

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Interesting stat, per Jon Wilner

 

point differential in conference games. The Ducks outscored their nine opponents by 225 points; the Huskies, by just 76.

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Oregon actually opened at -7.5 and it’s increased to -9.5!

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Other than refs,

I think we cover if our safeties can control WA receivers.

If not, this could be close.

 

And, will Jahlil Florence be available?

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On 11/27/2023 at 5:55 PM, Jemangi said:

And, will Jahlil Florence be available?

We know nothing at this point. 

 

I would be surprised if the coaches decided to sit him last week to give him time to heal. He was in steet clothes so it's clear the coaches' intent was not to play him at all. 

 

He has an undisclosed injury so it could be significant or it could be minor and the coaches just wanted to rest him. 

 

It would be great to have Florence back.

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Heard Florence was on crutches.

 

9.5 is too low. Penix won't make it to halftime before Ducks break the guy in two. The Duck defensive front is out for blood. No way this dude finishes the game. Duck D is going to finish what they started.

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Let's call the whole thing off? Michigan is -23 vs. Iowa. 

 

I know they are money-makers but down the road will make any sense to play a conference champ game? Michigan defeated Ohio State. In 2024 Michigan would have to accomplish this on back-to-back Saturdays. In 2024, both teams as of today would be in the 12-team playoff. A second game would result in a possible change in seeding and a chance that a 2-loss Ohio State, although unlikely, would not qualify.

 

But in 2023, I'm darn glad that Puddles has the opportunity to pay back UW with a punch to the puppy dog's jaw.

Edited by Jon Joseph
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On 11/27/2023 at 8:43 PM, idontrollonshobbas said:

The sharps know something......

Makes me wonder why the sharps don't pick the the final 4(or 12 next year)?  Seems like the best scenario to be more partial than a committee?  Probably takes TCU out of championship last year.

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On 11/27/2023 at 1:48 PM, cartm25 said:

Not sure about you, but that 9.5 feels a bit high, no?

 

I realize the Ducks have looked stronger and stronger, but Penix and those WR will still be a problem . . . and both teams will be motivated.

 

I'm picking the Ducks to win a close one, but hoping they blow UW out!

 

image.thumb.png.6ad715faeb1a0044b44af089b9c6c3e7.png

 

https://espnbet.com/sport/football/organization/united-states/competition/ncaaf/featured-page?conference=FilterOption%3APacific-12

 

I'm going to make two unpopular statements here related to this.

 

First of all, I don't believe this number is high.  For all intense purposes, the"mistaken fourth down calls" were a result of not executing.  The final score should have been 46-29 had Nix taken his trying and gone through his progressions ( first time) and taken his time on the second throw to Franklin at the two ( he scored if he catches it).

 

I realize everybody in the solar system disagrees.  That's fine with me.  Execution was the problem.  And as we have witnessed, the offense and the defense have spent the rest of the season on better execution.

 

Penalties, and once again, the Safeties are going to be the difference in this game.  If I see a Safety look at the QB instead of take away his choices I'm going to go nuclear.

 

I may be able to attend this game, so " The Sun of All Fears" may be in play lol.

Edited by Mike West
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     At 12-0 you know the puppies will be motivated by being cast as the underdog. But, if the the D line can disrupt Penix, and the O line can get its rush mojo back, it shouldn’t matter what they think.

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Always appreciate your insights Mike.

 

Just saying, I am big time nervous.   Good thing I work from home so I can take periodic breaks to calm down.  Friday seems like a long time away.  

 

Maybe I need to take some long lunches these next few days.😉

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On 11/27/2023 at 6:15 PM, OregonDucks said:

Oregon actually opened at -7.5 and it’s increased to -9.5!

Ah, didn't know that. First number I saw was the -9.5.

 

That -7.5 seems more appropriate, IMHO.

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On 11/28/2023 at 11:12 AM, Augduck said:

Always appreciate your insights Mike.

 

Just saying, I am big time nervous.   Good thing I work from home so I can take periodic breaks to calm down.  Friday seems like a long time away.  

 

Maybe I need to take some long lunches these next few days.😉

I'm nervous too.  The Fuskies have a matchup advantage here.  They, like Georgia (whom I believe is the hardest puzzle to solve), set up the Secondary so well they get guys open often.  

 

I believe the Corners (OBD) get beat here and there, but not to the degree they did before.  Washington likes to Gondor TDs from their own 40, the opponent's 40 and the opponent's 20.  That is their major tell.  

 

I believe that will be defended much better Friday.

 

Fingers crossed!!!

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That is a shock to me! Franklin is in the top 4 but got snubbed! I still believe that he IS the best receiver in the nation!

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On 11/28/2023 at 2:37 PM, Mike West said:

 

I believe the Corners (OBD) get beat here and there, but not to the degree they did before. 

I agree, I don't think the corners will be as stressed though. Looking at how Dorlus and especially Burch have played the last few games, the corners won't need to cover as long.

 

I think Penix is in trouble this game. Pocket is going to get stressed with LB and safetys coming hard inside. I don't think Husky guards will hold up. Penix is going to get punished.

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I think they are going to come up with a plan that gets the ball out of Penix' hand quickly. If so, he will be easier to protect, but at the same time, there won't be enough time for the deep routes to develop.

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