Transfer Portal Impact on QBs Recruited Out of High School?

[cartm25]

Sounds like Oregon may be looking to get another transfer QB to take over.

 

What does this mean for the "highly" recruited QBs that the Ducks have on their roster?

 

Now that QB experience seems to be the sought-after trait, what does this mean for recruiting HS QBs? Just keep doing it until you stumble across The One?

 

Regardless of coach-speak--"We've told the QB room this is an open competition."--my guess is the arriving transfer QB that was just paid good NIL $, and likely promised playing time, will ALWAYS have the leg up in the "competition".

 

This reminds me of something that occurs in my work. I provide financial services that can lead to being an expert witness in litigation matters. The attorneys always want someone with deposition/testimony experience, yet the professional without that experience can't get that experience . . . until they get the opportunity to have that experience.

 

I get the feeling QBs recruited to Oregon out of HS will always be trapped behind the incoming transfer QB that has the experience the HS QB recruits so desperately need.

 

Your thoughts?

[Just Ducky]

It’s the I want it now mentality. Colleges want it and have little patience to wait if they want to evolve.

 

High school QBs, even if they are the cream at the top, have very little chance to start and be successful at a blue blood program. If the kid doesn’t want to sit then he can transfer to another school is an option but will more than likely sit at that school as well.

 

It’s the one position that is the most important to the team so I don’t see anything changing unless they change the portal rules. Transfers should have to sit for a year to keep the big money programs from using their endless resources to steel players from other schools not so fortunate. The NCAA has really never governed much of anything so I don’t see it changing. 
 

For us fans it’s been a good thing however. Players may opt to stick around another year rather than being drafted by the worst teams in the nfl. Bo is a great example.
 

It’s made free agent markets out of college athletics.

It is what it is. 

[JW Approved]

I understand what you are saying, but I don't think it has changed too much, other than it changes everything. Lol.

 

There are roughly the same amount of starting QB's as there were decades ago.

[QuackyQuack]

"If you are good enough, you are old enough" - DL

 

This is a big debate and will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next couple of years. My thought is loyalty from a kid should not be rewarded with the next starting QB job. Sure we want to develop young talent and find that next Marcus or Justin, but if they aren't good enough to beat out a transfer then they are not ready to be the starting QB at Oregon. 

 

Someone posted here the other day something that was very interesting. They were saying these 4/5 star QBs should be going to these middle of the pack teams out of HS and starting for two years. They will then get real game experience and development and then transfer to one of the Blue Bloods when they are ready to step in. It will almost turn into a minor league development of some sorts. 

 

I for one want the best talented player being the leader of the offense for Oregon. If that is a one and done then so be it. The old days of just developing within your program is over if you want to compete for a championship year after year. 

 

In Dan Lanning We Trust! 

[Log Haulin]

Edit: I posted this elsewhere but it fits better here

 

The pressure to win is "Now". Year in and year out. HC's get paid millions to win. The leash is short. Ducks pay theirs $7m. 

 

The portal give coaches an out from having to develop a QB. Why risk a losing season and millions of dollars when you can just poach another QB from the portal.

 

If one of the QB's Oregon has on their roster isn't ready, thats on the coaches. Some of them have all the skills to be elite and the coaches haven't performed in developing them to take over the starting roll?

 

So it the belief that Oregon has to go to the portal... again. What is this? The third time in a row? Why can't Oregon coaches, 2 different staffs and several OC's, develope a QB at a high level?

 

If Oregon has to go the road of the mercenary, QB's will eventually stop coming. These kids were recruited by these coaches and IMO, failed by these coaches.

 

They choose Oregon over XYZ on a belief they will be prepared to reach their highest level. That has not happened since MM, Herbert was underserved by Oregons coaching staff.

 

At some point I hope we can find a coach that can develope a QB. It's only Lannings second year and Steins first, so jury is still out. 

 

These are just my thoughts and opinions. Most importantly, they are subject to change.

[Jon Sousa]

I believe that we need a portal QB this next season, but not because TT is not capable of being the starter. It is because if TT is the starter we will have a back up with close to ZERO experience taking a snap in a college football game. All we will have next year is a red-shirt freshman in Novosad, who has taken just a few snaps this year, and whoever comes in as true freshmen next year. 

 

Does DL want to have ZERO experience as QB2? NO!

 

This problem is not DL's fault. He inherited this problem. When DL came in, there was one scholarship QB on the roster - a RS freshman. Last year he recruited a 5* QB to come in, but when that 5* saw that Bo was staying, he went to UCLA. In a hurry, WS salvaged the year by recruiting a very good QB in Novosad. This year, DL is trying to reel in two good QBs.

 

As to development: Can anyone else see that Ty Thompson has developed tremendously this last year under Stein as compared to the previous 2 years? Did anyone else notice a marked improvement in Novosad from his performance in the Spring game to this performance against Portland State?

 

If a program recruits one good QB every year, there should always be at least 4 good QBs being developed on the team. If one of them passes up the guy recruited the year before him, the guy that was passed up will probably hit the portal -- hence the need to recruit 2 QBs the following year.

 

Right now we need a portal QB so that we have a good QB2. DL should go after the best QB he can find. Whoever that is should have a good shot at being QB1, but no promises should be made before results are seen in the fall practice. If he beats out TT, TT better not leave, because we will be back to the same situation of not having an experienced QB2.

[QuackyQuack]

On 12/5/2023 at 11:53 AM, Jon Sousa said:

If he beats out TT, TT better not leave, because we will be back to the same situation of not having an experienced QB2.

TT needs to leave to actually give himself a shot. Poor kid is going to be recruited over again without being able to fully show his talent with the starters. He has been very loyal to the Ducks, but its time for him to spread his wings and find a new home. 

[Haywarduck]

It would seem we aren't just seeing this at the qb position, but throughout the positions on the team. I have a feeling we will see a transfer DT because we don't have the maturity at the line we will need next year.

 

Players who go to a school which haven't won anything, like Colorado, and prove themselves more valuable will be feeders to Oregon and the elite schools.  Recruiting isn't a science, and when an elite player, like Gonzo, slips through to a lesser school the top programs will pick him up. 

 

This is especially true with NIL money. The Texas ATM method of just giving money to freshman with lots of stars has given credence to waiting until you know what you got.

 

I also think this is what the portal is to the top guys, a way to market themselves to the highest bidder. Maybe some also want to get on a winning program, but with NIL it is about the money. Some are just delusional and unfortunately pay a high price, no scholarship.

 

Head coaches do it, assistant coaches do it, just about everyone with a job does it. Playing football in college is a job.

[47sgs]

I don't think it's a QB development problem that Oregon specifically has.  Obviously, we want the best QB we can have, and if the talent, experience, and results are better with a transfer, then that's the route we go.

 

This isn't specific to Oregon.  Look at all the transfer QBs playing at blue blood and the more competetive schools, schools like LSU, OU,Ohio State ,Alabama,USC, etc...  Surly not every one of these schools fails to develop their QB talent.  I think it's the sign of the times that HS QBs are recruited to be developed, but with a few exceptions, just aren't able to compete for the starter job  with a high quality experienced transfer that the wealthier schools can buy, us included.

[GODUCKS15]

So a 4*-5* QB may as well go to a lesser school. Put in their dues then transfer to a top school. At least they'll get playing time.

[Charles Fischer]

My opinion?  No, I don't think we will always go to a portal QB in the future.  We need a band-aid this year, and finding a great quarterback among high schoolers is hard.  So Lanning will do what he does at all positions; recruit a ton of them and find our who is the best.  Eventually a HS QB will develop and take the reins.

 

We don't like Oregon going after portal QBs, yet if the Ducks do not have a good QB...we  fans will be howling about how the coaches failed in talent evaluation, player development, planning ahead, etc.

 

I think that roster management these days is a lot harder than it looks.

[Jon Joseph]

Oregon State QB Aiden Chiles has entered the portal. 

 

Utah's QG Pig Farmer Barnes is in the portal but will play for Utah vs. Northwestern. 

 

Could DJU think about doing the same for OSU vs. the Domers? The Sun Bowl is sold out and this would be a great place to audition. With D(UI)amien Martinez out at RB, 8.5 point underdog OSU could use the help.

 

DJU is rumored to be headed to Louisville, FSU, or Mississippi State. 

[Steven A]

On 12/5/2023 at 3:37 PM, Jon Joseph said:

The Sun Bowl is sold out

Too bad come game day a majority of the fans will either be wearing their invisible suits or their empty seat costumes.

[Haywarduck]

Use to be you could recruit more than 85 players to your roster, and teams did. They would pack their roster so other teams couldn't get the players.  This led to truly elite programs where others couldn't compete

 

There were limits put in to equal the playing field. We are now seeing the limits on class size growing to over 25. We are also seeing transfers of many of the top recruits from lesser programs. 

 

What we are seeing is, again, the truly elite ruling college football.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/5/2023 at 6:48 PM, Haywarduck said:

Use to be you could recruit more than 85 players to your roster, and teams did. They would pack their roster so other teams couldn't get the players.  This led to truly elite programs where others couldn't compete

 

There were limits put in to equal the playing field. We are now seeing the limits on class size growing to over 25. We are also seeing transfers of many of the top recruits from lesser programs. 

 

What we are seeing is, again, the truly elite ruling college football.

But, with a P5, NIL, and the Portal, we saw parity at the top like never before in the run to the final Final 4.

 

If Oregon had defeated UW in a close game and with Bama beating UGA, the Ducks would have been on the PO fence.

[dksez]

Quarterback is a uniquely central position. If a baseball pitcher could start every game, that would be close, but still not as important. The QB controls the points on the board, but also the tempo of the game -- which, in turn, influences heavily the opposing offense who is not on the field. With the advent of RPO, the quarterback is a real-time strategist -- a coach on the  field. This experience cannot be replicated in practice -- only game reps count (and garbage time doesn't.)

This will evolve into exactly what another poster (sorry I don't know who) posited: mid-level teams (like OSU) will become equivalent to JuCo teams -- feeders to the elite teams, where NIL and national exposure can be secured by top performers, not to mention professional draft preference. The rich will get richer. Sad but true.

 

(Aside: Bo Nix was a best case scenario. His connection to UO coaching staff amounted to 2.5 years. He was recruited and learned under Dilly, came to Eugene with two more years of eligibility. And he's using it all the way to the end, Good Gosh bless him. That's what we should be looking for in a portal transfer -- somebody with two years of potential playing time, already familiar to Stein or Lanning, thanks to the recruiting process.)

There is a way to avoid a steady diet of starting-QB-via-portal, and Kenny Dillingham is experimenting with it. Use more than one QB, depending on the situation. This gives real-time, meaningful reps to more than one player. I've said this before on this forum, but I see a Chip-Kelly-like disruption opportunity for the Ducks here. 75+% of extra points are not expected to meaningfully affect the outcome of the game -- it's gonna be a blow-out or one team is just clearly better from the start. So why not go for two in those situations, using the back-up QB who trains primarily for short-yardage situations? Those are real-time experiences with game-score consequences, even if they won't determine the final outcome.

The QB-in-training would be working with the best supporting skill players, who get extra reps in short-yardage situations. The lofty goal is only 50% success, but every rep prepares them for replacing the starting QB. Be honest! Does a placekicker really benefit from all those PATs? Not as much as the next-in-line QB would from regular 2-point attempts! Plus it could make us the national darling again -- it might even get us a Sports Illustrated cover! (Better Lanning than Sanders, right?)

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by dksez

[EzDucksIt]

With every player getting 4 in game appearances to count against red shirting, it allows for test driving SA and developing.  Depth was affected in the DB group, yet we lose two experienced guys to the Portal.  What Lanning did this year and some of the Position Coaches was use the depth on the team to ensure reps, rest and recovery to evaluate talent.

 

When the Defense did well, taking two score leads, the scheme was poor in maintaining leads.  Defense was playing not to lose.  While the offense lost steam.  Or the Opponent stepped up, Scoring FAST and defense out performed Our Prevent Defense.  TERRIBLE.  IE; Washington at Washington.  Two Oregon Possessions for a total of 6 minutes 0 to show for it.  Washington 53 seconds 7 points for the 3 point Lead and win.

 

My Dad used to "Tell me" all the time, until One Day the Lightbulb in my head went off, "he was right".  Some times, we just need to listen and get out of our own way.  Life, you are ALWAYS learning.  If you don't believe that, I will give you one of my many lightbulbs.

[Mike West]

On 12/5/2023 at 12:02 PM, Haywarduck said:

It would seem we aren't just seeing this at the qb position, but throughout the positions on the team. I have a feeling we will see a transfer DT because we don't have the maturity at the line we will need next year.

 

Players who go to a school which haven't won anything, like Colorado, and prove themselves more valuable will be feeders to Oregon and the elite schools.  Recruiting isn't a science, and when an elite player, like Gonzo, slips through to a lesser school the top programs will pick him up. 

 

This is especially true with NIL money. The Texas ATM method of just giving money to freshman with lots of stars has given credence to waiting until you know what you got.

 

I also think this is what the portal is to the top guys, a way to market themselves to the highest bidder. Maybe some also want to get on a winning program, but with NIL it is about the money. Some are just delusional and unfortunately pay a high price, no scholarship.

 

Head coaches do it, assistant coaches do it, just about everyone with a job does it. Playing football in college is a job.

Lots going on.  A former 5 star recruit at A&M spelled out their issue: they did not get millions (he even tweeted that).

 

College football is too complex for all but the very ready to step into.  Especially at QB.  Even Dabo Sweeney has recognized this.  Loyalty?  It matters.  So does being championship level for the blue bloods.  

 

DL inherited a challenge of major proportions.  Lack of talent and depth.  So he has to get some depth, while developing talent.  TT is clearly not at an elite enough level, and frankly I don't believe in such a thing as a 5 Star QB anymore.  You have it or you don't, and there really aren't many Justin Herbert caliber players anywhere in the country.

 

Can you grow into that? Yes.  Not as a freshman however as Dante Moore found out quickly. 

 

I believe FishDuck pointed out we lack experience on defense now (think talented players like Birch, and not enough Five Star Caliber talent on defense at any level to be considered as good as Georgia and the like- but we do have good talent).

 

I believe the ACC and the Big12 are the conferences the four and "five" star QBs should go.  They will shine enough to get nabbed quickly.  In fact, that's how I would recruit right now, and I'd be brutally honest about it.  Ninety percent of 4+ Star QBs will not start at a blue blood right now and perform at an elite level.  Those two conferences are the "new college football".

 

If you're awesome enough, you'll know in a month.  If not, prepare to sit.  That's reality.  And kids should be told that- especially QBs.  And I mean NFL ready.  Not College ready.  Which makes NIL and Portal strategy very interesting right now because kids don't want to hear that (and maybe being blunt is too much, but they SHOULD know).  

 

DL is pretty damn good, and I believe he will navigate this well.  Remember 10-2 is the target.  That's playoff bound.  Which means you must win the games you're supposed to win, and look to steal one from elite level teams with enough media steam they nearly always get in.  Right now that's tOSU, UM and Penn State.  

 

Again, I believe DL knows what he is doing, so we should be in the mix for everybody and another great year like 2023.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/6/2023 at 3:34 AM, Mike West said:

Lots going on.  A former 5 star recruit at A&M spelled out their issue: they did not get millions (he even tweeted that).

 

College football is too complex for all but the very ready to step into.  Especially at QB.  Even Dabo Sweeney has recognized this.  Loyalty?  It matters.  So does being championship level for the blue bloods.  

 

DL inherited a challenge of major proportions.  Lack of talent and depth.  So he has to get some depth, while developing talent.  TT is clearly not at an elite enough level, and frankly I don't believe in such a thing as a 5 Star QB anymore.  You have it or you don't, and there really aren't many Justin Herbert caliber players anywhere in the country.

 

Can you grow into that? Yes.  Not as a freshman however as Dante Moore found out quickly. 

 

I believe FishDuck pointed out we lack experience on defense now (think talented players like Birch, and not enough Five Star Caliber talent on defense at any level to be considered as good as Georgia and the like- but we do have good talent).

 

I believe the ACC and the Big12 are the conferences the four and "five" star QBs should go.  They will shine enough to get nabbed quickly.  In fact, that's how I would recruit right now, and I'd be brutally honest about it.  Ninety percent of 4+ Star QBs will not start at a blue blood right now and perform at an elite level.  Those two conferences are the "new college football".

 

If you're awesome enough, you'll know in a month.  If not, prepare to sit.  That's reality.  And kids should be told that- especially QBs.  And I mean NFL ready.  Not College ready.  Which makes NIL and Portal strategy very interesting right now because kids don't want to hear that (and maybe being blunt is too much, but they SHOULD know).  

 

DL is pretty damn good, and I believe he will navigate this well.  Remember 10-2 is the target.  That's playoff bound.  Which means you must win the games you're supposed to win, and look to steal one from elite level teams with enough media steam they nearly always get in.  Right now that's tOSU, UM and Penn State.  

 

Again, I believe DL knows what he is doing, so we should be in the mix for everybody and another great year like 2023.

Not surprisingly, Mike, Spot On!

 

The incubator for HS QBs so long as there is wide open CFB free agency is now the B12, ACC, and top G5 programs. Not the Power 2. 

 

3 QBs on the way to NYC for the Heisman presentation and all are transfers. And all are getting paid which IMO, is just fine. 

 

In many respects in today's CFB, plucking the portal is more important than recruiting. Especially, for positions of need.  

 

I'm hoping Gabriel will blow his horn in Eugene but there is going to be plenty of competition for his services even with the young man having but 1 season left to play. And 2 or 3 DL players and LBs out of the portal would also be nice.

................................................................................................................................

 

Old friend Shough is off to Louisville and UGA QB Vandergriff is headed to Kentucky. 

 

Ohio State is going all out for Cam Ward.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[DUCati855]

On 12/5/2023 at 11:53 AM, Jon Sousa said:

DL should go after the best QB he can find. Whoever that is should have a good shot at being QB1, but no promises should be made before results are seen in the fall practice.

Problem is... This is nearly impossible. A good transfer QB is not going to come without hefty NIL and promises. Also, NIL collectives want assurances of that hefty money is being spent on a starting QB not a backup.

[Jon Joseph]

A player no doubt on DL's list.

 

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/kirby-smart-georgia-bulldogs-lose-former-five-star-recruit-ncaa-transfer-portal-nyland-

[Jon Sousa]

On 12/6/2023 at 9:30 AM, DUCati855 said:

Problem is... This is nearly impossible. A good transfer QB is not going to come without hefty NIL and promises. Also, NIL collectives want assurances of that hefty money is being spent on a starting QB not a backup.

So, what if, after receiving "promises" the guy has a hard time picking up the complicated offense, or has personal problems that affect his on field performance, or the guy already in the stable makes such great strides he really does pass up the portal guy? 

 

Will the NIL collective want the head coach to sit the better guy just because the transfer guy is getting paid more money?

 

Who plays/doesn't play is the coaches decision before every game and during every game. It's on the coach to win games. Winning games is all the collectives care about.

[DUCati855]

On 12/6/2023 at 10:24 AM, Jon Sousa said:

So, what if, after receiving "promises" the guy has a hard time picking up the complicated offense, or has personal problems that affect his on field performance, or the guy already in the stable makes such great strides he really does pass up the portal guy? 

 

Will the NIL collective want the head coach to sit the better guy just because the transfer guy is getting paid more money?

 

Who plays/doesn't play is the coaches decision before every game and during every game. It's on the coach to win games. Winning games is all the collectives care about.

Exactly, and that's why its a problem! If, your going to bring in a high dollar transfer. It NEEDS to be a sure thing. 

 

Teams are fighting over good QBs. Those fights consist of collectives spending big money and promises being made to the QB. If not, that QB isn't coming here. The coach has to have input into that decision.

 

My opinion is DL and staff must decide now if they think TT will have the stuff to start next year or not. If not, they have to get someone significantly better than him. Not someone at his level to compete with.

 

 

[Jon Sousa]

On 12/6/2023 at 10:42 AM, DUCati855 said:

It NEEDS to be a sure thing. Teams are fighting over good QBs.   

There is no such thing as a sure thing. That is why there will always be a competition. Bo was massively better than Ty when he came, but there was still a competition into fall practices. (Just about none of the fans here thought Bo was massively better than TT, but Dan Lanning knew.)

 

On 12/6/2023 at 10:42 AM, DUCati855 said:

 

My opinion is DL and staff must decide now if they think TT will have the stuff to start next year or not. If not, they have to get someone significantly better than him. Not someone at his level to compete with.

In post #6 above I wrote, "DL should go after the best QB he can find."  I think we are in agreement here. But if he goes out and gets another Bo, there will still be a competition.  If not, how is DL going to keep TT as a capable back up (the only one we have right now) if he says to Ty, "Sorry, Kid. I know you are improving every week and you've shown that you can lead this offence, but the fact is that the starter next year will be the guy I'm bringing in from the portal because I have to make that promise to him."

 

 

[DUCati855]

On 12/6/2023 at 11:33 AM, Jon Sousa said:

There is no such thing as a sure thing. That is why there will always be a competition. Bo was massively better than Ty when he came, but there was still a competition into fall practices. (Just about none of the fans here thought Bo was massively better than TT, but Dan Lanning knew.)

That is my point. While fans may have thought there was a competition when Bo came in... there wasn't. The coaches already knew Bo was their man and as close to a sure upgrade as could be expected.

 

I feel this must again be the case if the Ducks take another transfer this year. It must be a clear upgrade. Ty has had two years more experience than when Bo came. If he is not the man. For his own sake he should be guided to the portal. Novosad will be just as good of a back up as Ty was two years ago.

 

I trust DL and staff will make the right decision.