Natty: Do We Love Oregon’s Chances or Just Really, Really Like Them?

[FishDuck Article]

Love. It can evoke happiness, excitement, euphoria and satisfaction. But, it can often be frustrating, painful, elusive and fleeting. I recently took a road trip to visit friends, family, and most importantly, a love interest with whom I had been texting and video chatting for more than 2 months. We met up several times over the week and had a ...

 

Natty: Do We Love Oregon’s Chances or Just Really, Really Like...

FISHDUCK.COM

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Darren Perkins FishDuck.com, guilty of playing the game of love, wonders if Oregon Ducks fans love Oregon’s chances to win it all in 2024.

[Haywarduck]

Another great article, I am in love with my Ducks and my Doodles. The one thing my canines have always taught me is there is always hope. 

 

For you Darren, there is hope, for our Ducks there is hope too. If you could handle somebody calling things gross burgers, then you, my Duck friend, are a real find. 

 

I would say the one thing to remember this season is there is still hope. Whether we are up, down, just won, just lost, with a 12 team playoff, it ain't over. 

[Darren Perkins]

Well thanks, Hayward. 12-team playoff. It almost sounds like college football polygamy. Kinda weird, huh!? Gotta love the dogs (real dogs, not UW), my little Walter and other dog Chewy still live me!

[MicroBurst61]

Ahhh the eternal optimism of every football fan before any games have been played.

 

I myself sit here and believe an undefeated season lies before us.  However, sporting competitions can never be won...on paper.  That's why we actually play the games.  And when we play the games there is this little thing called...intangibles.

 

Too many examples to list of athletes or teams expected to win handily just to have those "intangibles" rise up and bite them in the arse and snatch defeat away from the arms of victory.  (Kenny Wheaton's going to score...Kenny Wheaton's going to score!)

 

Point is I will relish the victories as they happen and "cope" with the "intangible losses" when I have to, remembering that those losses happen to ALL sports and athletes and they too have to "cope" when they lose a competition they were expected to win.

 

Sounds a lot like "Life" to me.  Go figure.

 

Go Quackers!

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/6/2024 at 8:10 AM, MicroBurst61 said:

Ahhh the eternal optimism of every football fan before any games have been played.

 

I myself sit here and believe an undefeated season lies before us.  However, sporting competitions can never be won...on paper.  That's why we actually play the games.  And when we play the games there is this little thing called...intangibles.

 

Too many examples to list of athletes or teams expected to win handily just to have those "intangibles" rise up and bite them in the arse and snatch defeat away from the arms of victory.  (Kenny Wheaton's going to score...Kenny Wheaton's going to score!)

 

Point is I will relish the victories as they happen and "cope" with the "intangible losses" when I have to, remembering that those losses happen to ALL sports and athletes and they too have to "cope" when they lose a competition they were expected to win.

 

Sounds a lot like "Life" to me.  Go figure.

 

Go Quackers!

Aaaaah! Pragmatism! Always a sure route. But, I do like to get a little preseason high come August with all the sunshine, and the predictions, and analysis, and stuff that doesn't really matter. I can't help it! I'm a sucker!

[Steven A]

"we are all trying to figure out what constitutes a good transfer portal ranking (Colorado was No. 1 both years, so go figure)"

 

Evidently size matters.

[Charles Fischer]

Darren, I LOVE this article and I am in LOVE with Oregon's chances.  As a recently divorced man...thanks for the tips on the tone of voice NOT to use!

 

This team has a real shot...

 

 

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/6/2024 at 9:10 AM, Steven A said:

"we are all trying to figure out what constitutes a good transfer portal ranking (Colorado was No. 1 both years, so go figure)"

 

Evidently size matters.

Zing!!!!!! Good one! . I wanna go further with that one, but the adult in me is refraining. 

 

Yup, go Buffs! Maybe they'll win 5 games this year? 

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/6/2024 at 9:27 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Darren, I LOVE this article and I am in LOVE with Oregon's chances.  As a recently divorced man...thanks for the tips on the tone of voice NOT to use!

 

This team has a real shot...

 

 

Haha , yeah gotta rethink all "acceptable" quirky habits you had with the ex, and error on the side of safety.

[Jon Joseph]

Doctor Ruth, is that you? 

 

Gross-burger = Sayonara. Good call my friend. 

 

What a terrific and entertaining article.  Filled with humor and insight. Somewhere, Mark Twain is smiling. 

 

You can have the best-looking tires on the block but you will not know how well they perform, particularly in rough weather, before the rubber meets the road. November games in Ann Arbor and Madison, Wisconsin could mean tough weather conditions.

 

Preseason, it's all good with the algorithms loving the Ducks. FPI, 2nd behind UGA. SP+, 3rd behind UGA and tOSU. The Athletic's Sports Betting Guru Austin Mock's model also has Oregon No. 3, behind the two usual suspects.

 

The FPI ranking would result in Oregon having the 2nd seed and a first-round bye before playing in the Rose Bowl. SP+ and Mr. Mock's mock would have Oregon with the 5th seed and in all likelihood playing the G5 representative in Autzen in the 1st round. 

 

So the tires look great before taking it out for a drive in the potato fields but then buckle up when you try to bust a bronco for the first time in four tries. Boise is not a G5 pushover. Then, travel up the road, , to play a bunch of leftover Beavers. 3-0 before the bye and 8 straight conference games without a break is expected but has to be realized on the field. This would be nice. 

 

Frankly, it's the last item that concerns me, the schedule. No other P4 program in 2024 plays 8 conference games in a row. The final 4 games in this stretch bring Illinois to Autzen, with the Illini coming off the Red Grange Memorial game against Michigan. Then off to Ann Arbor in early November to play a top-25 Michigan team coming off a rivalry game, at least in the mind of Sparty, vs. Michigan State. Then back home to play a Maryland team coming off an idle week, and then to Madison, Wisconsin in mid-November to play a Badgers team coming off an idle week. Thank you Mr. B1G for giving the two teams Oregon plays at the end of the 8-game stretch the week off before the Ducks game.

 

This schedule is NFL-like and certainly not CFB-light.

 

By the way, on October 12th, OBD hosts the Buckeyes, coming to Autzen off a game vs. Iowa in what could be the most impactful game of the regular season. 

 

So I am fired up and positive but that's a wicked 8-game stretch within a 16 or 17-game run to play for a title in Atlanta on January 20, 2025. Whew!

 

Thanks again Darren for the terrific take and Vandalize the Vandals!

[Jon Joseph]

On 8/6/2024 at 1:34 PM, Darren Perkins said:

Zing!!!!!! Good one! . I wanna go further with that one, but the adult in me is refraining. 

 

Yup, go Buffs! Maybe they'll win 5 games this year? 

 

Going further is neither allowed on The Former nor in Prime Time. 

[Santa Rosa Duck]

Thanks Darren, really a fun read. At least you can count on Walter! As for our DUCKS, I think we will have a fabulous year and find ourselves in the playoff. As to that 8 game stretch without a break, I think we have the depth to make it through this hurdle. I see several guys on out 3rd and 4th string that could be real competitors. GO DUCKS!

[Flyin Vee]

I have a very strong desire and because it is no way a seX thing I can’t say “Lust” but there it is. Do the ducks have a shot? Yes. Potentially a very long season and sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way. Talent normally wins over luck but to win it all you need both.

[Ktmguy2018]

If this was Gabriel's second season with the Ducks, I would LOVE the Ducks chances.  Since this is year one, I really LIKE the chances.

 

I am hopeful that the chemistry with the offense develops rapidly and the team lives up to and exceeds the expectations!

[Steven A]

On 8/6/2024 at 10:34 AM, Darren Perkins said:

but the adult in me is refraining. 

Never had that problem/filter.

[noDucknewby]

That's funny, I taught my daughter about life by overusing football metaphors, but dating metaphors for football?!

 

That said I agree with the analysis, especially the big game wins.  Look I'm bullish on Lanning, but at this point what is his signature win?  Hell MC had 2 Pac-12 titles and a Rose Bowl win.  If my quick Google skills are accurate, MC was 6-1 against Fuskies/Beavis (no Fusky game Covid year).

 

So what is DL's signature win?  Maybe 2022 vs UCLA or 2023 vs Colorado?  Sure 2-0 in bowl games counts but Libery was hardly a worthy opponent and UNC barely had enough to field a team in the Holiday (big caveat here, Drake Maye wound up as the #3 overall pick in the NFL draft). But we also had Bo.  

 

Obviously 0-3 vs Fuskies is the worst, especially since two of those games were probably lost by the coaches.  I grudgingly acknowledge they just plain beat us in the Pac-12 Championship this year.

 

Not beating a dead horse here (well maybe a little) but in 2022 he couldn't coach us to a win against Beavis with a 21-point 4th quarter lead and a Pac-12 Championship berth at stake.  This past year he couldn't beat the Fuskies on a neutral field with a playoff berth on the line.

 

Again, I remain bullish on Lanning but do I love our chances at a natty this year?  Not really, but we've definitely got more than a fighters chance.

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/6/2024 at 1:50 PM, noDucknewby said:

in 2022 he couldn't coach us to a win against Beavis with a 21-point 4th quarter lead and a Pac-12 Championship berth at stake.  This past year he couldn't beat the Fuskies on a neutral field with a playoff berth on the line.

Again...in 2022--we did not have the talent we have now, and the coaches could not leave their game plan versus OSU in the last quarter.

 

And AGAIN...our starting corners were NOT playing in the second half of the first UW game, and the ENTIRE second game in the Pac-12 Championships.  Do you think Florence and Jackson could have made a difference to overcome just three-point losses?

 

 

So was it really on Lanning?

 

[DanLduck]

As usual, a great read Darren. I loved it, my wife laughed out loud!

 

I really, really like our chances.

There is no doubt we have the team to be able to win every game, at least on paper. But I have 2 main concerns:

 

1. Dillon Gabriel 

No doubt he is an all-star college qb. The key will be how fast he adapts and learns to run the high RPO offense of the Ducks.

I fear that Bo Nix made running it look so easy that we think it will be automatic for DG. I fear we may not have realized just how brilliant Bo actually was.

 

2. The "8 game stretch".

Winning every week is always tough.

The season gets long, wear & tear, bumps & bruises, school work, personal issues, getting "up" every week, the long travel...it's tough under any circumstance. 

With such a long streak without an emotional break, is a monumental task.

 

Also consider, every team will be "up" for our game. We will have a target on our back because of our ranking, and because we're the new kids on the block.

Beating us will be every teams highlight of the year.

 

That said, I really, really, really like our chances, as long as we don't "cute talk" our way with anybody.

[noDucknewby]

On 8/6/2024 at 2:22 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Again...in 2022--we did not have the talent we have now, and the coaches could not leave their game plan versus OSU in the last quarter.

 

And AGAIN...our starting corners were NOT playing in the second half of the first UW game, and the ENTIRE second game in the Pac-12 Championships.  Do you think Florence and Jackson could have made a difference to overcome just three-point losses?

 

 

So was it really on Lanning?

 

Agree to disagree Charles, the record is what it is.  Injuries are a part of the game.  Are those mitigating circumstances? Sure, but doesn't change the poor in-game decisions by DL.  Even he admits he should have taken the field goal before halftime.

 

LIke I said, I'm bullish on DL just not pollyannish (not accusing).

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/6/2024 at 2:49 PM, noDucknewby said:

Even he admits he should have taken the field goal before halftime.

I am the first one to say, "Take the damn points," but you also cannot ignore how losing ONE corner in a game against such a skilled passer is a killer, but BOTH?

 

Blaming the FG decisions is an opinion one way or the other, but the injuries are simply bad luck that I do not believe should be held against a coach.

 

But we both agree on the upside to this year, and now that the "Analysts" can now be coaches?  Maybe one of them will be on the headsets advising him in key situations.

[noDucknewby]

On 8/6/2024 at 2:55 PM, Charles Fischer said:

I am the first one to say, "Take the damn points," but you also cannot ignore how losing ONE corner in a game against such a skilled passer is a killer, but BOTH?

 

Blaming the FG decisions is an opinion one way or the other, but the injuries are simply bad luck that I do not believe should be held against a coach.

 

But we both agree on the upside to this year, and now that the "Analysts" can now be coaches?  Maybe one of them will be on the headsets advising him in key situations.

Fair points Charles the injuries turned out to be a big factor.  That said the game was still winnable and good coaches figure out a way to win the close ones.

 

I'm not down on DL at all, but to my mind he still hasn't come up with that big win I know he's capable of.

 

You got the last word if you want it and Go Ducks!

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/6/2024 at 11:34 AM, Santa Rosa Duck said:

Thanks Darren, really a fun read. At least you can count on Walter! As for our DUCKS, I think we will have a fabulous year and find ourselves in the playoff. As to that 8 game stretch without a break, I think we have the depth to make it through this hurdle. I see several guys on out 3rd and 4th string that could be real competitors. GO DUCKS!

Depth... another element of a title contending program. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/6/2024 at 12:25 PM, Ktmguy2018 said:

If this was Gabriel's second season with the Ducks, I would LOVE the Ducks chances.  Since this is year one, I really LIKE the chances.

 

I am hopeful that the chemistry with the offense develops rapidly and the team lives up to and exceeds the expectations!

I hear ya, makes ya wonder if that warm up game against Hawaii might have been worth it. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/6/2024 at 1:50 PM, noDucknewby said:

That's funny, I taught my daughter about life by overusing football metaphors, but dating metaphors for football?!

 

That said I agree with the analysis, especially the big game wins.  Look I'm bullish on Lanning, but at this point what is his signature win?  Hell MC had 2 Pac-12 titles and a Rose Bowl win.  If my quick Google skills are accurate, MC was 6-1 against Fuskies/Beavis (no Fusky game Covid year).

 

So what is DL's signature win?  Maybe 2022 vs UCLA or 2023 vs Colorado?  Sure 2-0 in bowl games counts but Libery was hardly a worthy opponent and UNC barely had enough to field a team in the Holiday (big caveat here, Drake Maye wound up as the #3 overall pick in the NFL draft). But we also had Bo.  

 

Obviously 0-3 vs Fuskies is the worst, especially since two of those games were probably lost by the coaches.  I grudgingly acknowledge they just plain beat us in the Pac-12 Championship this year.

 

Not beating a dead horse here (well maybe a little) but in 2022 he couldn't coach us to a win against Beavis with a 21-point 4th quarter lead and a Pac-12 Championship berth at stake.  This past year he couldn't beat the Fuskies on a neutral field with a playoff berth on the line.

 

Again, I remain bullish on Lanning but do I love our chances at a natty this year?  Not really, but we've definitely got more than a fighters chance.

 

 

What can I say? I'm a metaphor junkie! Nice input. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/6/2024 at 3:06 PM, noDucknewby said:

Fair points Charles the injuries turned out to be a big factor.  That said the game was still winnable and good coaches figure out a way to win the close ones.

 

I'm not down on DL at all, but to my mind he still hasn't come up with that big win I know he's capable of.

 

You got the last word if you want it and Go Ducks!

Glad I stayed out this one... : )

 

[Darren Perkins]

On 8/6/2024 at 2:44 PM, DanLduck said:

As usual, a great read Darren. I loved it, my wife laughed out loud!

 

I really, really like our chances.

There is no doubt we have the team to be able to win every game, at least on paper. But I have 2 main concerns:

 

1. Dillon Gabriel 

No doubt he is an all-star college qb. The key will be how fast he adapts and learns to run the high RPO offense of the Ducks.

I fear that Bo Nix made running it look so easy that we think it will be automatic for DG. I fear we may not have realized just how brilliant Bo actually was.

 

2. The "8 game stretch".

Winning every week is always tough.

The season gets long, wear & tear, bumps & bruises, school work, personal issues, getting "up" every week, the long travel...it's tough under any circumstance. 

With such a long streak without an emotional break, is a monumental task.

 

Also consider, every team will be "up" for our game. We will have a target on our back because of our ranking, and because we're the new kids on the block.

Beating us will be every teams highlight of the year.

 

That said, I really, really, really like our chances, as long as we don't "cute talk" our way with anybody.

An LOL, can't get better than that.  A cute talk is definitely overrated. Or, uh, umm, at least, that's what somebody told me on time. Yeah, after winning in The Shoe in 2021, we'll definitely have a target on us.