Sports Psychology Extrapolates a LOSS for the Ducks vs. the Beavers

[Solar]

Has a Dan Lanning team ever gotten close to reaching their potential without a loss? I don't think so.

 

I think Dan Lanning is an excellent motivator once adversity hits, but I don't believe he is capable of manufacturing adversity to the extent necessary to fully maximize his teams ability.

 

After Georgia 60 point spread win, after UW 1 solid win over 10th ish ranked Utah, after UW 2 steamrolled the rest of the Pac12, after UW 3 loss destroyed Liberty.

 

Idaho post game speech in us vs. them showed Dan Lanning's too soft in how he approaches his players to manufacturer adversity. He said Idaho played good, he didn't blame how they played, he blamed the process.

 

How is a human exposed to all that positive energy supposed to play with that survival instinct that failure is a fate worse than death that needs to be avoided at all cost?

 

Looking at the Beavers (who just blanked SDSU), the have been abandon by their family, become the laughing stock of the country, the fat kid sitting alone at the table at lunch. They've been playing like their survival depends on them overcoming that social stigma. And their coach is going to make sure the players believe the situation is completely the fault of the entitled rich kids Duck team. They will be out for blood, to dominate us on the field of play.

 

Most of the starters for Oregon don't have enough historical skin in the game in this rivalry to match the intensity the Beavers will bring.

 

Lastly the game is in Corvallis, the fans emotional support will be lacking and it will be an oppressive atmosphere.

 

For those reasons and Ducks past performances, I submit that sports psychology extrapolates such a strong disadvantage for the Ducks vs. the Beavers that the Ducks should lose.

 

And given the past, Oregon losing to the Beavers may be the only hope we have of getting the most excellence out our players to compete at the level needed to finish in the top 3 of the B1G necessary to make the playoffs.

 

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

You can also throw in the fact that Oregon has only won a single game (2018) in Reeser since 2014. However, DL broke the Boise curse this year so he may be onto something.

[OregonDucks]

So, Coach Lanning’s team will just have to go undefeated now to prove you wrong…

 

How hard can it be?

Edited September 11 by OregonDucks

[Haywarduck]

Agree there is a positive culture, but is that enough?

 

Lanning is still getting his wings as a coach. Those wings may get clipped a few more times as he develops his on field chops and the culture needed in the program.

 

The direction he is going is up, but the road to success is seldom straight up.

[Jon Joseph]

 

Solar, behind closed doors? I imagine it is a far less laid back Danno—Ditto for the Coaches' Meetings. 

 

Danno's mentor, Kirby Smart, lost four of five to Saint Nick. Kirby never whined in public and never took it out on his players in public. Kirby is 92-16 at Georgia, 9-2 in bowl games, 2 Natties. 

 

Throwing his guys under the bus in public didn't have Brian Kelly's LSU team ready to play MacSomething State in Week 2. 

 

Stars ultimately turn into Black Holes. Getting stars to play together is not easy; look at FSU's preseason touted D-line. It's always been a new team in college football every season. Today, it's a new team on steroids. The offense lost two QBs, Heisman finalist Bo, and 1st-round draft pick Center Jackson Powers-Johnson. The secondary is close to brand new. Two starting D linemen are new. 

 

The team is 2-0. Chip Kelly's first team could not have started any worse than it did. That team played in the Rose Bowl. Chip chastised Blount for the sucker punch, other than that he publically called out no player.

 

If Dan Lanning was publically calling out this team I'd be worried about Dan's future at Oregon. IMO, it is far better psychologically from the head coach on down to keep criticism private. You do not coach guys up at post-game press conferences. 

 

Again, the team is 2-0 and perhaps is overrated. Let's see how the season plays out. 83% of the season has yet to be played. 

 

Great subject to ponder. Thank you. 

 

Ducks win by 2 TDs plus. The Beavers QB has played the same number of games for Oregon State as Gabe has played for Oregon. Idaho and Boise State are better than the Idaho State and San Diego State teams OSU has defeated. And I believe the Ducks will respond to the abuse they will face in Reser. 

 

[Babyjesus615]

On 9/11/2024 at 6:50 AM, Solar said:

Has a Dan Lanning team ever gotten close to reaching their potential without a loss? I don't think so.

With a 12 team playoff field, the margin of error has grown to where a loss isn't suddenly the end of the world. One could argue that a loss could be the medicine needed for THIS team. I am not advocating that it should become the norm for a team to experience adversity in the form of a loss in order to finally start clicking. However, I do believe that this team has bought in too hard to the pre-season hype.

 

They need a chip on their shoulders. The OL needs to play like their season depends on it every game. I do think that with time, Lanning will become good at being able to manufacture this type of playing attitude. However, this 2024 team doesn't seem to have fully bought into that just yet. A loss early on could very well be the thing to right this ship in time for tOSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, and prove the doubters that we are ready for the B1G.

[Jon Joseph]

 

An Obvious But Spot On Review of the Ducks O.

 

 

Oregon Ducks offense is unsustainable due to glaring and crucial area of concern

WWW.YARDBARKER.COM

---

There's plenty of discourse happening surrounding the Oregon offense, and for good reason. Most of the time, through two games, the offense has looked broken, unorganized, and dysfunctional...

[30Duck]

Solar, there is meat on the bone you speak about here and the Beavs will e playing with a raging hunger that the Ducks will not only have to match, but exceed, if they want to win the game, which of course is why you play. thanks, Herm.

I agree with Jon that a coach publicly calling out his players is a bad look, a sign of the coach having nowhere else to go.

 

[David Marsh]

On 9/11/2024 at 6:50 AM, Solar said:

Idaho post game speech in us vs. them showed Dan Lanning's too soft in how he approaches his players to manufacturer adversity. He said Idaho played good, he didn't blame how they played, he blamed the process.

We got only a fragment of his post game speech to his players. 

 

When asked about what was said in the locker room he said that what he said stays in the locker room. 

 

I seriously doubt that he would let the entirety of his talk to his team make it to the final cut of a public video. 

 

But I do agree that most teams need a loss to motivate them. Will that loss come this week? Maybe, hopefully not. But we'll probably take at least one loss this season, and if things don't improve on the offensive line we'll take more. 

 

Nothing kills entitlement like losing. 

[HDuck]

Perhaps...there are some parallels to Dabo Swinney's first few years at Clemson?  A couple poor teams, then some good teams, then a couple great ones.

 

A different time, a different place, a different conference, high school recruiting based, but a first time head coach, who had to grow into the job a bit.

[Solar]

I appreciate the comments that we only saw a snippet of Lanning's looker room speech, however he didn't leave himself that much room to pivot into a tirade of anger about them playing like crap.

 

I'm extrapolating from what I see. I don't recall any Saban like outburst of righteous indignation at his players underperforming relative to what they are capable of. Did I just miss it?

 

I think there are only two ways to have a primal response to underperforming: 1. Losing and 2. Being on the receiving end of direct personal derision in a social setting when you screwed up.

 

I'll leave this last nugget to ponder:

After the 2015 Rose Bowl win Mariota was quoted at being shocked with the yelling and screaming he was seeing on the opposite sideline especially Winston and the head coach. "Nobody on our team EVER yells at each other we always just talk things out."

 

That approach was part of a culture that ended a few years later with a 4-8 season for a team with zero discipline left when Taggart arrived.

Edited September 11 by Solar

[cartm25]

Some random (maybe incoherent) thoughts on this topic.

 

In general, I believe in praising publicly, and correcting privately.

 

BUT, I also believe there's a time and place (even if rarely) for correction to come in a public setting; in the middle of the game after a dumb personal foul penalty that negates a big play . . . I'm fine with that.

 

Does anyone on OBD know, and can explain, the details of these NIL deals? Specifically, are portions of the deals guaranteed?

 

I ask because one of the stated advantages of being a HC in college vs the NFL, is that the NFL HC can't be as "ra ra" or "in your face" (i.e., a "motivator") as much as a college HC can. Stated differently, the HC has more control over player development / direction / motivation because the players "used" to not have that much leverage.

 

It was either listen to the coach(es) or hit the bench.

 

Now players have leverage with the "I can leave anytime" transfer portal, and the "it doesn't matter how I play, I'm still getting paid" NIL deals.

 

This has to impact the psychology of players and their motivations. How much? I have no idea.

[spartan2785]

On 9/11/2024 at 2:12 PM, Solar said:

 

 

I'm extrapolating from what I see. I don't recall any Saban like outburst of righteous indignation at his players underperforming relative to what they are capable of. Did I just miss it?

 

I remember many times where Saban was screaming at a player who made a mistake on the sideline, maybe not Brian Kelly or Bo Pelini like, but he could absolutely rip into his players.  I think coaches need to within reason rip into their players, it shouldn't be constant, it should be constructive, and it shouldn't be something where players are scared to play for the coach, but the standard has to be upheld, and sometimes that means ripping into those who aren't meeting that standard.  

[Augduck]

I can assure you that what you see in the videos is ALWAYS approved by Dan before it sees the light of day.   He has full veto authority and you might recall last year after the Colorado 'clicks' thing Dan commented that he should have never let the ABC cameras in the room for that piece.

 

So the net is (and its been said here) Dan is 1000% praise publicly, correct  privately and I am glad he is that way.   I used to HATE when Mario threw guys under the bus and he did it a lot and no need to even talk about what he did to Kris Hutson on national TV.  But I digress.....

 

The net is Dan does have times when he is 'very firm and direct'.   I had a chance to observe practice and I can assure you Dan is firm and direct when necessary.

 

 

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Like Jimmy Johnson used to say “You treat all players the same until you don’t”. What he meant was high performers (I.e. star players) were treated better. There was a game the Cowboys lost in Washington where everyone played horribly.

 

Jimmy got a few Heineken’s deep on the flight home and went to the back of the plane and openly ripped anyone who looked to be having a pleasant time. He also told the flight attendant not to feed them. He walked right past Aikman, Smith and Irvin (who also had bad games) and lit into everybody else. Back home in Dallas, Aikman confronted him about why he didn’t yell at the star players and Jimmy alluded to the fact that his words would have no effect on guys like him, Emmitt, Irvin, etc. because they were harder on themselves than any coach could ever be.

 

Long story short, great coaches know which buttons to push and whose buttons to push. What works for one guy might not work for the next. A great example is Tua in Miami. Flores used to ride him hard before he was fired and Tua played poorly. Along comes McDaniel who treats Tua like a pro and he takes the Dolphins to the playoffs and has a great season.

[David Marsh]

On 9/11/2024 at 11:12 AM, Solar said:

I'll leave this last nugget to ponder:

After the 2015 Rose Bowl win Mariota was quoted at being shocked with the yelling and screaming he was seeing on the opposite sideline especially Winston and the head coach. "Nobody on our team EVER yells at each other we always just talk things out."

 

That approach was part of a culture that ended a few years later with a 4-8 season for a team with zero discipline left when Taggart arrived.

Anger, yelling and blaming tends to entrench people in what their doing rather than reevaluate their stance and actions. In some ways they become more motivated to not help someone shouting at them and saying that they're bad. 

 

I know what that sort of thing comes up, I've played enough online video games to have people spew obscenities at me, that it doesn't motivate to do anything, except do worse out of spite. 

 

Expressing disappointment, frustration and even anger in a calmer atmosphere is how problems are resolved and how respect is built between all parties. 

 

If you need someone to play better you fire them up and maybe get them angry but not angry at the team or the leadership of the team. You want to use passion to motivate and people to get maybe angry that they're not doing enough in the moment. 

 

That doesn't come from telling at people for being bad on the sideline during the game or in public. 

 

Right now I do feel the offensive line needs to play better but I think a large part of that comes from the coaches not fiddling with the line up as much. As much as getting players to do better and put the work in. 

 

The latest episode of Ducks vs Them has Bassa rallying the defense on the sideline. He's fired up and calling on everyone to put their best effort forward. He clearly cares about the game. But that's not the time to throw blame at players for messing up ... But to encourage them to get it right the next time. 

 

There is a big part of me that really thinks the tablets and replays in the sideline is a bad thing for this team. They can't change the past and need to just focus on the next play and bond as a team. 

 

As for the 2016 final Helfeich team... Doing a deep dive into everything from that year is on my list of articles to write. I might get around to it after this season. Lots of interesting moving parts on that one. 

[Fitnessczar]

I think this may be the case of spoiled fans instead of spoiled players.

 

For two years we had a top five offensive line. Now we don't and somehow the players aren't working hard. They are just fat on NIL.

 

Anyone with a chance to be first or second day will make tens if millions a year. Top NIL on the Ducks is 1.5. Who in their right mind is going to coast on that. Most are under 500k.

 

Perhaps instead of buying the hype the line is actually figuring it out.

 

It's very possible they are more frustrated than any of us.

 

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 9/12/2024 at 12:36 AM, David Marsh said:

I know what that sort of thing comes up, I've played enough online video games to have people spew obscenities at me, that it doesn't motivate to do anything, except do worse out of spite. 

Your screen name wouldn’t happen to be Leeroy Jenkins would it?

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

 

Again, Solar, thanks for the great topic and everyone's thoughtful comments.

 

Nick Saban. I can recall him reacting vehemently when things did not go well on the field but for the most part, Saint Nick called out his assistant coaches on the sidelines and not the players. I am certain Nick had no problem 'coaching guys up' in practice. 

 

As to the issue of Oregon fans being spoiled, 'this' emanates from the top and is part of the brand. The fans did not come up with 'That Team Out West.' Being brash is part of the Ducks sales pitch. Oregon today is a nationwide and worldwide brand. This happened because of on-field success, the support of one of the best coporate marketing entities ever, NIKE, and not being shy about putting up a poster of Joey Harrington in NYC, Bo in Dallas, and taking huge bath toys on the road.

 

Spoiled fans? Look no further than Columbus, Ohio. Ryan Day is 56-8. 39-3 in conference, and he is on the hot seat because he lost the wrong 3 games in the Big Ten. WOW! Buckeyes fans are not spoiled, they are Entitled. 

 

When it comes to college football fans, remember that Fans is a diminutive for FANATICS.OBD is 2-0, has yet to use a Playoff Mulligan, and ugly wins today will simply be wins come December. Did any team last season have more ugly wins than that Other Team Up North? 

 

Bash The Beavers!

[Drake]

Sports psychology extrapolates a loss?

 

(what data points are used in sports psychology extrapolation)
 

If you mean that if the Duck offense continues to play poorly that they could lose…sure. They will not lose because the beaver crowd is being mean to them. 

[Mike West]

On 9/11/2024 at 3:06 PM, Augduck said:

   I used to HATE when Mario threw guys under the bus and he did it a lot and no need to even talk about what he did to Kris Hutson on national TV. 

You know, 

 

When I grew up, coaches yelled at us constantly.  Hated it some of the time, but I mostly didn't mind.  If you screw up as bad as Kris Hudson did, I would get in your face like that.

 

It was known at the time the team was clowning around too much.  Tons of dropped balls, unforced errors and inexcusable penalties.  We even talked about it.  Then Kris Hudson basically trashed a key first down conversion.  Yeah, I would have ripped him one too. In fact, I didn't say it at the time, but my first thought was 'it's about time".

 

Abuse is never acceptable.  I'll tell you this, Kirby Smart and Nick Saban routinely lashed their players.  Why do you think they have , what ten Nattys between them?

 

Because they don't let kids run the show.  Remember when Neon 'shallow' trolled Saban for quiting because of NIL?  Guess who will never see a playoff game in his career?  

 

I'm pretty sure there's a reason Gen z and the millennials will never rise to the level of greatness Boomers have achieved - they didn't get their butts chewed out enough.  

 

If you don't force kids to take things seriously , they won't.  Oh, I'm pretty sure Saban would have ripped Hudson for that dumb display.

[Augduck]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:04 AM, Mike West said:

You know, 

 

When I grew up, coaches yelled at us constantly.  Hated it some of the time, but I mostly didn't mind.  If you screw up as bad as Kris Hudson did, I would get in your face like that.

 

It was known at the time the team was clowning around too much.  Tons of dropped balls, unforced errors and inexcusable penalties.  We even talked about it.  Then Kris Hudson basically trashed a key first down conversion.  Yeah, I would have ripped him one too. In fact, I didn't say it at the time, but my first thought was 'it's about time".

 

Abuse is never acceptable.  I'll tell you this, Kirby Smart and Nick Saban routinely lashed their players.  Why do you think they have , what ten Nattys between them?

 

Because they don't let kids run the show.  Remember when Neon 'shallow' trolled Saban for quiting because of NIL?  Guess who will never see a playoff game in his career?  

 

I'm pretty sure there's a reason Gen z and the millennials will never rise to the level of greatness Boomers have achieved - they didn't get their butts chewed out enough.  

 

If you don't force kids to take things seriously , they won't.  Oh, I'm pretty sure Saban would have ripped Hudson for that dumb display.

Don't disagree with you Mike about letting players know when they screwup and Dan does.   He just does it privately.

 

I personally am not a fan of 'public beratings'.  Yes, what Hutson did was 100% stupid no doubt.  My opinion is that you handle it privately.  You tell him it's wrong and maybe even sit him for the rest of the game.   

 

All water under the bridge now for sure but a good debate.   

 

I can tell you that several of the big donors were very unhappy with MC for that tirade at the time.   

[Mike West]

A couple of thoughts...

 

When I coached, I was pretty calm mostly.  One time I raised my voice and everyone nearly laughed , but they paid attention.  Another year I had a team that was just a clown show.  If you ever watched Magic Johnson coach the Lakers, you can imagine what I was like.  I couldn't stand the lack of work ethic.  I just left the team.  They went undefeated...they beat themselves so badly they were never in any of the games they played-all year.

 

Timing is everything in a nutshell.  You raise your voice for an impact.  Usually, stared downs, snippets of disappointment, and silence (with a disgusted look on your face) is enough.  Saban was hard on his players when they made mistakes, but he was encouraging when they lost their poise.  He knew which buttons to push.

 

As far as losing to little brother: I encourage all of you to watch some highlights of the SDSU game.  In my opinion, we would have to play worse than both games x factor 3.  The Beavers are fundamentally sound, and that's about it.  In fact, if we don't deep six them, I'd be surprised. Even if the OL plays as poorly as they have. That's just my feeling. 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

My sports psychology extrapolates the conclusion that OSU would most likely lose to both Idaho and BSU. Idaho just beat Wyoming which is probably about the same level as this year's SD St. Boise St would destroy Wyoming, SD St and the Beavs. The Ducks have been struggling to resolve some fundamental issues while fighting off solid well coached teams with lesser talent than themselves. As we wonder what's wrong with the Ducks offense, we need to remember that this struggling team just put up 37 points against a potential playoff team.

 

I see this game getting ugly in Corvallis but not in the way the Beavs are hoping for.

[30Duck]

The game is at Corvallis, that's the only advantage Oregon State has, and I expect there will be a lot of green and yellow in the stands, so that mitigates home field. Oregon State would LOVE to beat the Ducks. I want to win Powerball EVERY week. 

 

Psychologically speaking you need to hit rock bottom then build yourself back up. The last two games are close enough to the bottom for the elevating to begin. The Ducks need to pound the Beavs into submission, a TKO somewhere around the middle of the third quarter, then just have fun the rest of the game, let Sappington kick a field goal for old times' sake.

[Mike West]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:22 AM, Augduck said:

Don't disagree with you Mike about letting players know when they screwup and Dan does.   He just does it privately.

 

I personally am not a fan of 'public beratings'.  Yes, what Hutson did was 100% stupid no doubt.  My opinion is that you handle it privately.  You tell him it's wrong and maybe even sit him for the rest of the game.   

 

All water under the bridge now for sure but a good debate.   

 

I can tell you that several of the big donors were very unhappy with MC for that tirade at the time.   

 

 

I totally respect your perspective on the time and place to correct bad behavior.  Plenty of styles are different, and effective.  Again, abusing a player is totally unacceptable.  Respect completely matters.

[Jon Joseph]

 

It's Freezing in Auburn, Alabama. WAR U Guys Suck!

 

 

Hugh Freeze chucks Auburn players all the way under the bus after loss to Cal

FANSIDED.COM

---

Year 2 of the Hugh Freeze-Auburn Tigers era has gotten off to an inauspicious start following their 21-14 home loss to the California Golden Bears. Auburn enter

 

After the $cam, I so love it when Auburn is dumped on .

[Solar]

To clarify some things, my quote of Mariota was not to say the Ducks should act like Winston, it was to point out very clearly the team had no leadership outburst of anger regarding underperformance or lack of discipline ever. Not good. 

 

People don't change until they realize it will hurt worse emotionally to stay the same. That's a high bar sometimes. When people screw up they need to feel really uncomfortable about it to really solidify their desire not to screw up that same way again.

 

Also, sports psychology refers to the emotional and mental state or framework of the players. Not fans, not coaches.

 

Lastly I am not extrapolating a line on a graph I'm extrapolating cause and effect of past psychology and game performance for both teams. It's speculative by nature, and n= very small (sample sizes). 

 

Your thoughts and opinions are all valid too.

 

I really hope something clicks this weekend and we win.

 

The strange, nervous energy vibe from Lanning for the post practice interview yesterday did not give me warm fuzzies.

 

I've never seen him act like that before. Either Red Bull gave him serious wings or he is beside himself at practice trying to figure out how to get the players to stop taking turns screwing up or both!

Edited September 12 by Solar

[DuckFan93]

Herstreit also says it's about getting OBD's mind right.

 

 

 

Edited September 12 by DuckFan93

[30Duck]

Psychologically speaking, how did Herbie, and a bunch of others, see Oregon, with a new QB, new WR's new RB's, new OL, as a favorite for the championship?

[cartm25]

On 9/11/2024 at 4:06 PM, Augduck said:

no need to even talk about what he did to Kris Hutson on national TV.

I rewatched and was ok with it.

 

He chewed him out and and didn't touch him.

 

The headset, on the other hand, was physically abused beyond repair; didn't deserve that.

[spartan2785]

On 9/12/2024 at 6:00 PM, 30Duck said:

Psychologically speaking, how did Herbie, and a bunch of others, see Oregon, with a new QB, new WR's new RB's, new OL, as a favorite for the championship?

Totally see what you are saying, and I might be totally misunderstanding the question with the "Pschologically speaking" at the front of that question, and if so my apologies!  With that said...

 

I think the counter to that is the QB coming in is going to become the next QB to start the most games ever in college football, and has been one of the most successful QBs in college football for the last 4 years.  If he isn't ready to come in and be a leader, then I don't understand how you do as well as he has at two stops.

 

WRs returned their #1B, the #3, plus the addition of a former 5 star WR prospect who was  a SEC All-Freshman Team, The Athletic Freshman All-America, ESPN Freshman All-American, and a FWAA Freshman All-America.

 

Oregon returned a rusher who gained 750+ yards in a backup role, plus they had a RB who was the #2 before he was injured last year.

 

Finally the O-line supposedly has 2 first round draft picks at tackle, a stout guard, and finally a center who was a 247Sports True Freshman All-America last year and looked great in the bowl game, you had 4 of your top 6 offensive lineman coming back, that's plenty of experience.

 

It was entirely fair to say that Oregon should be a team some in the national media would predict to win the national title. 

 

[30Duck]

On 9/12/2024 at 6:42 PM, spartan2785 said:

It was entirely fair to say that Oregon should be a team some in the national media would predict to win the national title. 

 

Great job in answering why the Ducks were picked to have a great year (And They Still Can) but it seems like now Oregon is struggling to win with an all-star team; great individual talent, in a sport where teams need cohesion, familiarity, timing, everybody on the same page, to thrive.

[spartan2785]

On 9/12/2024 at 10:01 PM, 30Duck said:

Great job in answering why the Ducks were picked to have a great year (And They Still Can) but it seems like now Oregon is struggling to win with an all-star team; great individual talent, in a sport where teams need cohesion, familiarity, timing, everybody on the same page, to thrive.

I think you're right in many ways.  It does take all of the things that you mention, I just think it's just not entirely a cohesion thing, there are players just simply not winning their battles, not being tough enough, and not being ready to play despite not being new to the program.  The cohesion bit is certainly a part of it though.  

 

All the criticism they are getting is justified, for the most part I think the media (national and local) have been pretty kind to them.  They can still be a great team, but they HAVE to start showing it, the second half of the BSU game was a start actually other than the botched snap.  

 

We're probably on the same page though.