Oh sure, many of the national pundits/experts/writers offer good takes that make you ponder, but how many predicted Oregon to beat Penn State? Four out of five on the ESPN GameDay panel picked the 'Lions over the Ducks...

In the preseason, how much did we hear about Texas (3-2), Penn State (3-2), or Clemson (2-3) being not only in the top-5, but often were Preseason 'Natty favorites?

While we like to hear these guys give Oregon respect...in the end we get just as good as takes on the national situation from the good people of this forum. I recognize how hard it is to predict these things, (as our weekly prediction contest humbles us all) but those misses on purported top-5 teams is pretty massive.

I have always been skeptical, but doesn't this alter your perceptions of the national media a bit more?

Charles, I trust you can hear the AMEN! coming from this corner.

Only one group of "experts" risk taking it in the shorts if wrong, the bookies.

GO DUCKS, Hose The Hoosiers!

Years back I slammed Aaron Fentress for his crappy and often completely WRONG predictions--I'm still kicked off the Oregonian. AND--couldn't care less.

10 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

Charles, I trust you can hear the AMEN! coming from this corner.

And YOU are the perfect example of how this community as much or expertise than the "experts" who write nationally. NOBODY can compete with our own "Schedule-Maven" in Jon Joseph!

Just play the damn games……that is ALL that matters.

18 minutes ago, 1Ducker1 said:

Years back I slammed Aaron Fentress for his crappy and often completely WRONG predictions--I'm still kicked off the Oregonian. AND--couldn't care less.

Fentress is llike the Dollar Store Canzano in regards to stirring things up. He also appears to dislike fans utterly and exhibits an arrogant disregard for them, despite having no apparent skill set that I can discern. Must be nice to get paid to be below average.

I'd have to respect them first to change my tune.

Pundits in a nutshell:

Bama, Texas, UGA: it's their year! Blah blah blah.

Whoever beats Bama, Texas, UGA: it's their year! Blah blah blah.

tOSU, Michigan, USC, ND: It's their year! Blah blah blah.

Whoever beats tOSU, Michigan, USC, ND: It's their year! Blah blah blah.

1 hour ago, Utki said:

Fentress is llike the Dollar Store Canzano in regards to stirring things up. He also appears to dislike fans utterly and exhibits an arrogant disregard for them, despite having no apparent skill set that I can discern. Must be nice to get paid to be below average.

We can ask Trent Bray how it feels, right?😁

Pare had an interesting piece on how dynasties are kinda dead in college football and that's because the depth on every top tier team is thinner than ever.

I see his point but I also can absolutely see teams that know how to reload and preserve their rosters could build some sort of dynasty.

When it comes down to it there are few in the college football media that knows enough about every team to actually be truly informed. In the past with the super powers it was easy... Bama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State and whoever else you want to add to the list is going to be good and will contend.

I mean how many times have we watched an Oregon game and found the announcers to know almost nothing about the team?

A lot!

And now the amount of teams that could potentially make the playoffs (not contend for the national championship) has exploded and these pundits don't know.

Penn State Washington the bigger brand and the easier pick so they picked Penn State over Oregon.

The old assumptions don't hold as.much weight as they used to because 10 years ago Oregon probably loses that game against Penn State.

Among the many misuses of the word, ‘expert’, or the description, ‘national writer’, is when they are applied to those who ply their trade in the world of sports.

The reason for that is obvious and simple: just beneath that expert’s shiny exterior of unbiased, nonpartisan objectivity lies a kid/college student who grew up cheering for his home team. In the end, that hidden inner fan will always trump the exterior expert. Bless them, but they just can’t help themselves.

And, because the vast majority of these national experts reside east of the Mississippi, that inner fan’s affection for Oregon can be considered cool and remote at best.

That’s why I prefer their disregard and negativity - it’s honest. It’s only when they shine their rah-rah light on us that I get concerned. I view that only as a chess move, a set-up whose purpose is to undermine with false praise.

Call me paranoid, but that’s how I’ve learned to view them.

Respect for experts. Heck yes. Only problem is there are no experts.

Hummm, what do two "top 10" teams who lost to unranked foes have in common. . . Still looking for their first P4 wins!

The dynamics in the game have REALLY changed the last 3 years due to transfers and NIL. I don't think most of the "expert pundits" have caught up yet.

Take Penn State, for example. Pre-season the punditry was they are returning many of their starters, more than their competitors. Thus, they are a CFP lock, and likely for the Natty game.

What gets overlooked is the teams they are going to play aren't as static as they used to be when the only roster churn could come primarily from adding freshmen to replace departing seniors.

This year's Penn State squad is not playing their opponents last year's rosters (+freshmen). Their opponents are changing their rosters via transfers and NIL. Their opponent may have lost some seniors, but have replaced them with senior transfers who are as good or better.

It is difficult to predict how a new guy on the roster like Duke's transfer QB Darian Mensah (from Tulane) will do, but a few guys can have a big impact, like Mensah. You can say the same about other position players, not just QBs. The pundits don't really have the analysis expertise to predict what will happen because there is way more churn in the rosters than there used to be.

I've not given pundits, "experts" much validity since Charles started 'Fishduck.com'.

I used to think Herbstreit knew his stuff. But learning about Chip's offense from this site made me realize that KH had no clue what the Ducks were doing!

I've learned so much from all the contributions here that it's obvious that the "experts" are merely repeating popular talking points. They are still stuck in the '80's for football success. Only the SEC and a few "Bluebloods" can win it all.

Now, with NIL, the portal, and all athletes getting paid, 'above board', the old school elites no longer have an advantage. They can no longer store up blue-chip players and hold onto deep rosters.

Now you can actually play at Cincinnati, or Vanderbilt, etc, get exposure AND make $$$.

Preseason rankings based on last year are now invalid because every year is now a new roster. E.g. how many teams are starting a new transfer QB!

Anyway, I laugh at preseason polls.

But I love my OBD community!

I gave up on "experts" years ago when listening to Paul "Fawn"baum read his obviously scripted SEC narrative (Sinclair media style) EACH and EVERY time he was "front and center" on national media during the BCS era. Had me realize that objective, reflective thought on the subject of college football is mostly a bunch of "noise" to meet the "needs" of fan bases and advertisers.

In the world of "entertainment" havin' Nuthin' to talk about is paramount to a death sentence. Better to fill the void with BS than lose your audience or cashflow.

Ergo where we are at with the plethora of podcast and streaming "options" available today.

I don't know but I like to try and live by the mantra of:

Better to keep quiet and appear a fool or uninformed, than open ones mouth and remove all doubt. 😉

Go Quackers!

Most are talking heads. Very little experts there. It is mostly about narrative and bias. Look at the SEC standings. All teams undefeated or with 1 loss are all ranked. Some of them have a nice OOC win, but not all. B1G TEN, ACC and Big 12 1 loss teams aren't given the same bias.

I really don't mind this sort of stuff. Networks need people to talk about the teams, it's hard to really have a great idea about who has taken the next step in practices, NIL has changed the game in terms of how different teams are year to year.

I really don't think anybody could foresee Penn St. losing to UCLA, in the case of Texas, I think that team looked the part last year, they brought back a fair amount of players, and the QB was the number one ranked QB prospect when he in high school. I do think the hype over Arch was way overboard, but again networks need things to air, so they talk about the programs, players, and coaches that will get the most eyeballs.

One thing that would help would be to wait to rank teams until about this point in the season. It wouldn't stop commentators from doing rankings or really stop the hype around certain programs, but it would help to not have that number next to the team when there hasn't been any football played.

I wonder how much "expert opinions" affect betting?

That's another reason that drives everyone including the mailman to have an opinion. Some just get to spout it on TV.

The Oregon - Indiana line opened early Sunday with the Ducks favored by 14. That has diminished greatly. It is now around 7-1/2 to 8. Obviously a lot of money was flowing in on Indiana to win/cover that early spread, so the spread had to narrow to get more money flowing to the Oregon side of the house ledger.