Our Oregon football program entered 2025 in a season we expected to be a rebuilding year. That turned quickly into a reload, and lofty expectations were set after an all-time poised performance by Dante Moore on the road in Happy Valley. Unfortunately, Penn State decidedly did not hold up their end of the bargain the rest of the season, and have massively diminished a ...

Could Oregon Miss the College Football Playoff?

Alex, i feel that anything can happen in college football in November and nothing is more important than OBD's winning out. The Ducks may need double digit wins to change how the committee views them......

Many scenarios can and will play out to determine and shape the final 12 rankings. But its best the Ducks win out.

This weekend the Ducks need BYU to beat TT, barring being leap frogged, OBD's move up to 8th. Then we need BYU to win out and win their title game. OBD's do not need an AQ out of the BIG 12 to take up a coveted spot.

If Texas and Oklahoma win out then they will jump our Ducks. In this scenario, A&M, Bama and Georgia will have 2 losses. Chances are they will not fall below a 10-2 Duck team. Again, it is best to win out.

If those 3 teams win out then Texas and Oklahoma are not a factor.

Most likely Ole Miss wins out because their heaviest lifting is behind them.

Normal ACC chaos in November should leave them with just 1 spot as long as GT doesn' upset Georgia.

These are just a few scenarios and IMHO the Ducks need to play much better, win out and stay out and above the CHAOS!

Go Ducks. As Alex said one game at a time. Step up, play with your hair on fire and handle business against tge Hawkeyes...

If Oregon can't win out then how successful would they really be in the playoffs? I know, I know, Ohio State made it and won it all last year even with a loss to Michigan. However, they had H2H wins against Indiana and Penn State, the most talented roster in CFB and it was obvious they closed their playbook against Michigan.

Correction to my previous comment. If A&M lost to Texas then they would only have one loss, not 2 losses.

On an added scenario, Michigan controls their own destiny. If they win out and beat tOSU then depending on tie breakers, they could be in the BIG title game.

If they don't make the title game consider that a 10-2 Wolverine squad, with a win over tOSU could overtake a 10-2 Duck squad?

Just another reason for OBD's to win out and finish 11-1....

I agree with Alex that beating Iowa is critical but I disagree that it would need to be emphatic to matter. A win on the road at Iowa will count regardless of the score. Indiana escaped with a victory in part because Gronowski got hurt and the Hawkeye offense imploded down the stretch. Hoosier could have and maybe should have lost that game.

If Oregon wins out, they are in, likely with a #6 ceiling. But they need to win to be a guarantee. 10-2 won't cut it unless the team that beats the Ducks finishes with 3 losses and beats other ranked teams along the way. A 10-2 B1G team that beats Oregon is likely in and OBD out barring some chaos in the SEC with a crap ton of 9-3 teams

Indiana and tOSU will play in the B1G CG. Given a close game, Bucknutt wins and IU drops no lower than #4. Indiana wins and ditto for tOSU. The best Oregon can be is 11-1 and a 3rd place at large B1G bid.

It is a narrow path to the CFP and one OBD can navigate, but they almost certainly need to win out.

38 minutes ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

On an added scenario, Michigan controls their own destiny. If they win out and beat tOSU then depending on tie breakers, they could be in the BIG title game.

If they don't make the title game consider that a 10-2 Wolverine squad, with a win over tOSU could overtake a 10-2 Duck squad?

Just another reason for OBD's to win out and finish 11-1....

If Michigan wins out and Oregon wins out then is there a chance Oregon is in the B1G Championship game? The tie-breakers are pretty confusing. Michigan trumps OSU because of H2H win which is the first tie-breaker. This is where I get confused. Does this automatically put Michigan in the CG or do they bump Michigan up against Oregon? I don't know. If they did then Oregon would have the most wins over common opponents (USC) which is the second tie-breaker.

What if Michigan goes to the CG and beats Indiana? I would like to see how the committee sorts that out. They would almost be forced to put all four teams in the playoff. Notre Dame would likely get pushed out if that happened.

Yes they can. I think they must win this weekend and both home games. Probably get in with a loss to UW however unthinkable that is. A loss at Iowa would drop them to far out of the top 12