Our Oregon football program entered 2025 in a season we expected to be a rebuilding year. That turned quickly into a reload, and lofty expectations were set after an all-time poised performance by Dante Moore on the road in Happy Valley. Unfortunately, Penn State decidedly did not hold up their end of the bargain the rest of the season, and have massively diminished a ...

Could Oregon Miss the College Football Playoff?

Alex, i feel that anything can happen in college football in November and nothing is more important than OBD's winning out. The Ducks may need double digit wins to change how the committee views them......

Many scenarios can and will play out to determine and shape the final 12 rankings. But its best the Ducks win out.

This weekend the Ducks need BYU to beat TT, barring being leap frogged, OBD's move up to 8th. Then we need BYU to win out and win their title game. OBD's do not need an AQ out of the BIG 12 to take up a coveted spot.

If Texas and Oklahoma win out then they will jump our Ducks. In this scenario, A&M, Bama and Georgia will have 2 losses. Chances are they will not fall below a 10-2 Duck team. Again, it is best to win out.

If those 3 teams win out then Texas and Oklahoma are not a factor.

Most likely Ole Miss wins out because their heaviest lifting is behind them.

Normal ACC chaos in November should leave them with just 1 spot as long as GT doesn' upset Georgia.

These are just a few scenarios and IMHO the Ducks need to play much better, win out and stay out and above the CHAOS!

Go Ducks. As Alex said one game at a time. Step up, play with your hair on fire and handle business against tge Hawkeyes...

If Oregon can't win out then how successful would they really be in the playoffs? I know, I know, Ohio State made it and won it all last year even with a loss to Michigan. However, they had H2H wins against Indiana and Penn State, the most talented roster in CFB and it was obvious they closed their playbook against Michigan.

Correction to my previous comment. If A&M lost to Texas then they would only have one loss, not 2 losses.

On an added scenario, Michigan controls their own destiny. If they win out and beat tOSU then depending on tie breakers, they could be in the BIG title game.

If they don't make the title game consider that a 10-2 Wolverine squad, with a win over tOSU could overtake a 10-2 Duck squad?

Just another reason for OBD's to win out and finish 11-1....

I agree with Alex that beating Iowa is critical but I disagree that it would need to be emphatic to matter. A win on the road at Iowa will count regardless of the score. Indiana escaped with a victory in part because Gronowski got hurt and the Hawkeye offense imploded down the stretch. Hoosier could have and maybe should have lost that game.

If Oregon wins out, they are in, likely with a #6 ceiling. But they need to win to be a guarantee. 10-2 won't cut it unless the team that beats the Ducks finishes with 3 losses and beats other ranked teams along the way. A 10-2 B1G team that beats Oregon is likely in and OBD out barring some chaos in the SEC with a crap ton of 9-3 teams

Indiana and tOSU will play in the B1G CG. Given a close game, Bucknutt wins and IU drops no lower than #4. Indiana wins and ditto for tOSU. The best Oregon can be is 11-1 and a 3rd place at large B1G bid.

It is a narrow path to the CFP and one OBD can navigate, but they almost certainly need to win out.

38 minutes ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

On an added scenario, Michigan controls their own destiny. If they win out and beat tOSU then depending on tie breakers, they could be in the BIG title game.

If they don't make the title game consider that a 10-2 Wolverine squad, with a win over tOSU could overtake a 10-2 Duck squad?

Just another reason for OBD's to win out and finish 11-1....

If Michigan wins out and Oregon wins out then is there a chance Oregon is in the B1G Championship game? The tie-breakers are pretty confusing. Michigan trumps OSU because of H2H win which is the first tie-breaker. This is where I get confused. Does this automatically put Michigan in the CG or do they bump Michigan up against Oregon? I don't know. If they did then Oregon would have the most wins over common opponents (USC) which is the second tie-breaker.

What if Michigan goes to the CG and beats Indiana? I would like to see how the committee sorts that out. They would almost be forced to put all four teams in the playoff. Notre Dame would likely get pushed out if that happened.

Yes they can. I think they must win this weekend and both home games. Probably get in with a loss to UW however unthinkable that is. A loss at Iowa would drop them to far out of the top 12

Alex, your article brought up another scenario for us to ponder . . .

A two loss Ducks team could miss the playoffs. Going forward since we want to see OBD in the playoffs every year it will be a daunting task to go 11 - 1 year after year.

That is a tough ask, so we do need to be prepared for hopefully no more than a one-year absence every so often.

In my opinion, Oregon is still a team with a young QB, a completely revamped OL and interior DL, and a lack of depth and elite talent at the inside LB spot.

I am pulling hard for Oregon to win out and make the playoffs. Even if they do, I feel like it is a long shot that they are going to get past the second round this year.

I am very excited for what the future brings. The talent coming in should help bridge those gaps in the coming years.

I fully expect Oregon to win it all in the next 5 years or so.

23 minutes ago, GeotechDuck said:

In my opinion, Oregon is still a team with a young QB, a completely revamped OL and interior DL, and a lack of depth and elite talent at the inside LB spot.

I am pulling hard for Oregon to win out and make the playoffs. Even if they do, I feel like it is a long shot that they are going to get past the second round this year.

I am very excited for what the future brings. The talent coming in should help bridge those gaps in the coming years.

I fully expect Oregon to win it all in the next 5 years or so.

Agree. As it stands to day their 2nd round opponent is tOSU.

My advice to Dan Lanning: Win the remaining games on your schedule.

Great discussion that has the folks in Bristol smiling. What the Grapevine Gurus have to say matters on December 7th, I don't see a Ducks Day of PO Infamy heading OBD's way.

I'm pulling hard for Oregon to make the PO because I'm a Fanatic, the recruiting bump from being a team you can count on to get you to the PO, the chance to win it all, even if you finish in fourth place in the Big Ten in the regular season 🙃, the millions of dollars for the conference for every conference team in the field, and the stamp of further approval on the Oregon brand and consequent income from merchandise sales.

A win on the road over the PO committee's No. 20 team will, of course, help the PO cause. Unless it's a blowout loss, a Ducks loss may put OBD on PO life support, but not on the critical list.

Oregon, with the 18th most difficult remaining schedule in college football, according to Massey, is in the playoffs with a 10-2 record.

The Indiana loss from the committee's perspective is, except for the Texas loss at Ohio State, as good as it gets. A competitive road loss to a top 20 team will not be viewed as a bad, PO-disqualifying loss.

The Big Ten Championship game will feature No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana.

Ohio State will not lose to Purdue, UCLA, or Rutgers. This Michigan team will not defeat an Ohio State team that will not ground it out as it inexplicably did last season. This Michigan team will not be able to disrupt the Ohio State passing game and score enough points to win the game.

Penn State could keep it close against Indiana, but the Hoosiers should prevail. How about this item Cig can use to have his team come out smokin' 😁, the Hoosiers have never won a road game against Penn State, and are 2-25 vs. the Nits. Win this game and after a late as it can get bye, I don't see Indiana losing at Purdue.

USC is odds-on to defeat Northwestern Friday night. Same for UW at Wisconsin on Saturday. Minnesota is 6-3 and bowl eligible. I don't see the Gophers defeating the Ducks, but with a finish at Northwestern and Wisconsin at home, the Gophers could finish 8-4.

After the Wisconsin game, UW hosts Purdue and then plays at UCLA. UW is odds-on to be 9-2 when Oregon visits, and with ranked SEC, ACC, and B12 teams playing one another, UW will be ranked higher than 23rd the final week of the regular season.

One of Iowa or USC will, of course, have a loss in Week 12 when the Hawkeyes play the Trojans in LA. Iowa finishes with a game against Michigan State, and then is on the road against a crippled Nebraska team, and should finish no worse than 8-4.

Big Ten teams that go 9-3 will finish in the committee's top 25. Seven B1G teams are ranked, two behind the SEC, two more than the ACC, which somehow has five teams ranked, and four more than the B12. Any B1G team that finishes with two or fewer losses is in the PO field.

Hammer the Hawkeyes!

Can Oregon miss the playoffs? I sure hope so. I never want to be one of those teams that expects to make it just because we're us. I want to watch these games with everything on the line. That's what makes them extra fun. To me, if OBD can't win a defensive battle with Iowa or an offensive battle with SUC or a test of wills with the dang fuskies, they don't deserve to compete with top teams in the country for the crown anyway.

I'm sure Lanning feels the need to win every game left and I'm fine with being in that boat. Can't wait for Saturday!

We could easily go 9-3 imo, so yes we could absolutely miss the playoff.

There is value in making the playoff even if you don’t expect to win it; $$, a great experience for young players, minimum goal for a successful year, recruiting tool, etc.

I personally can’t imagine any scenario where playing in a bowl game is the preference. Making the expanded playoff each year should be the minimum expectation moving forward. Favorable match-ups, key injuries, and getting hot can easily lead to a 4 game win streak and title. ND and OSU both experienced elements of this last year.

If we go 10-2, I think when and how we get a second loss is everything. Generally speaking, the earlier you lose the better. If we have to have one more loss, losing this week is the best option for making the playoff at 10-2 imo. Going 10-2 with a lopsided loss in Seattle to end the season is what would put us in the most jeopardy at 10-2.

Let’s not test that theory 😆

Edited 6 minutes ago6 min by JabbaNoBargain

If Oregon can't win out, then they would have a lot of trouble in the playoffs, even if they did make it in.

Iowa will be their third competitive game. They won one and lost one so far. How well the Ducks play vs Iowa will be a sign of what kind of playoff potential they have.

Talent wise, Oregon is near the top of college football.