Our Oregon football program entered 2025 in a season we expected to be a rebuilding year. That turned quickly into a reload, and lofty expectations were set after an all-time poised performance by Dante Moore on the road in Happy Valley. Unfortunately, Penn State decidedly did not hold up their end of the bargain the rest of the season, and have massively diminished a ...

Could Oregon Miss the College Football Playoff?

Alex, i feel that anything can happen in college football in November and nothing is more important than OBD's winning out. The Ducks may need double digit wins to change how the committee views them......

Many scenarios can and will play out to determine and shape the final 12 rankings. But its best the Ducks win out.

This weekend the Ducks need BYU to beat TT, barring being leap frogged, OBD's move up to 8th. Then we need BYU to win out and win their title game. OBD's do not need an AQ out of the BIG 12 to take up a coveted spot.

If Texas and Oklahoma win out then they will jump our Ducks. In this scenario, A&M, Bama and Georgia will have 2 losses. Chances are they will not fall below a 10-2 Duck team. Again, it is best to win out.

If those 3 teams win out then Texas and Oklahoma are not a factor.

Most likely Ole Miss wins out because their heaviest lifting is behind them.

Normal ACC chaos in November should leave them with just 1 spot as long as GT doesn' upset Georgia.

These are just a few scenarios and IMHO the Ducks need to play much better, win out and stay out and above the CHAOS!

Go Ducks. As Alex said one game at a time. Step up, play with your hair on fire and handle business against tge Hawkeyes...

If Oregon can't win out then how successful would they really be in the playoffs? I know, I know, Ohio State made it and won it all last year even with a loss to Michigan. However, they had H2H wins against Indiana and Penn State, the most talented roster in CFB and it was obvious they closed their playbook against Michigan.

Correction to my previous comment. If A&M lost to Texas then they would only have one loss, not 2 losses.

On an added scenario, Michigan controls their own destiny. If they win out and beat tOSU then depending on tie breakers, they could be in the BIG title game.

If they don't make the title game consider that a 10-2 Wolverine squad, with a win over tOSU could overtake a 10-2 Duck squad?

Just another reason for OBD's to win out and finish 11-1....

I agree with Alex that beating Iowa is critical but I disagree that it would need to be emphatic to matter. A win on the road at Iowa will count regardless of the score. Indiana escaped with a victory in part because Gronowski got hurt and the Hawkeye offense imploded down the stretch. Hoosier could have and maybe should have lost that game.

If Oregon wins out, they are in, likely with a #6 ceiling. But they need to win to be a guarantee. 10-2 won't cut it unless the team that beats the Ducks finishes with 3 losses and beats other ranked teams along the way. A 10-2 B1G team that beats Oregon is likely in and OBD out barring some chaos in the SEC with a crap ton of 9-3 teams

Indiana and tOSU will play in the B1G CG. Given a close game, Bucknutt wins and IU drops no lower than #4. Indiana wins and ditto for tOSU. The best Oregon can be is 11-1 and a 3rd place at large B1G bid.

It is a narrow path to the CFP and one OBD can navigate, but they almost certainly need to win out.

38 minutes ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

On an added scenario, Michigan controls their own destiny. If they win out and beat tOSU then depending on tie breakers, they could be in the BIG title game.

If they don't make the title game consider that a 10-2 Wolverine squad, with a win over tOSU could overtake a 10-2 Duck squad?

Just another reason for OBD's to win out and finish 11-1....

If Michigan wins out and Oregon wins out then is there a chance Oregon is in the B1G Championship game? The tie-breakers are pretty confusing. Michigan trumps OSU because of H2H win which is the first tie-breaker. This is where I get confused. Does this automatically put Michigan in the CG or do they bump Michigan up against Oregon? I don't know. If they did then Oregon would have the most wins over common opponents (USC) which is the second tie-breaker.

What if Michigan goes to the CG and beats Indiana? I would like to see how the committee sorts that out. They would almost be forced to put all four teams in the playoff. Notre Dame would likely get pushed out if that happened.

Yes they can. I think they must win this weekend and both home games. Probably get in with a loss to UW however unthinkable that is. A loss at Iowa would drop them to far out of the top 12

Alex, your article brought up another scenario for us to ponder . . .

A two loss Ducks team could miss the playoffs. Going forward since we want to see OBD in the playoffs every year it will be a daunting task to go 11 - 1 year after year.

That is a tough ask, so we do need to be prepared for hopefully no more than a one-year absence every so often.

In my opinion, Oregon is still a team with a young QB, a completely revamped OL and interior DL, and a lack of depth and elite talent at the inside LB spot.

I am pulling hard for Oregon to win out and make the playoffs. Even if they do, I feel like it is a long shot that they are going to get past the second round this year.

I am very excited for what the future brings. The talent coming in should help bridge those gaps in the coming years.

I fully expect Oregon to win it all in the next 5 years or so.

23 minutes ago, GeotechDuck said:

In my opinion, Oregon is still a team with a young QB, a completely revamped OL and interior DL, and a lack of depth and elite talent at the inside LB spot.

I am pulling hard for Oregon to win out and make the playoffs. Even if they do, I feel like it is a long shot that they are going to get past the second round this year.

I am very excited for what the future brings. The talent coming in should help bridge those gaps in the coming years.

I fully expect Oregon to win it all in the next 5 years or so.

Agree. As it stands to day their 2nd round opponent is tOSU.

My advice to Dan Lanning: Win the remaining games on your schedule.

Great discussion that has the folks in Bristol smiling. What the Grapevine Gurus have to say matters on December 7th, I don't see a Ducks Day of PO Infamy heading OBD's way.

I'm pulling hard for Oregon to make the PO because I'm a Fanatic, the recruiting bump from being a team you can count on to get you to the PO, the chance to win it all, even if you finish in fourth place in the Big Ten in the regular season 🙃, the millions of dollars for the conference for every conference team in the field, and the stamp of further approval on the Oregon brand and consequent income from merchandise sales.

A win on the road over the PO committee's No. 20 team will, of course, help the PO cause. Unless it's a blowout loss, a Ducks loss may put OBD on PO life support, but not on the critical list.

Oregon, with the 18th most difficult remaining schedule in college football, according to Massey, is in the playoffs with a 10-2 record.

The Indiana loss from the committee's perspective is, except for the Texas loss at Ohio State, as good as it gets. A competitive road loss to a top 20 team will not be viewed as a bad, PO-disqualifying loss.

The Big Ten Championship game will feature No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana.

Ohio State will not lose to Purdue, UCLA, or Rutgers. This Michigan team will not defeat an Ohio State team that will not ground it out as it inexplicably did last season. This Michigan team will not be able to disrupt the Ohio State passing game and score enough points to win the game.

Penn State could keep it close against Indiana, but the Hoosiers should prevail. How about this item Cig can use to have his team come out smokin' 😁, the Hoosiers have never won a road game against Penn State, and are 2-25 vs. the Nits. Win this game and after a late as it can get bye, I don't see Indiana losing at Purdue.

USC is odds-on to defeat Northwestern Friday night. Same for UW at Wisconsin on Saturday. Minnesota is 6-3 and bowl eligible. I don't see the Gophers defeating the Ducks, but with a finish at Northwestern and Wisconsin at home, the Gophers could finish 8-4.

After the Wisconsin game, UW hosts Purdue and then plays at UCLA. UW is odds-on to be 9-2 when Oregon visits, and with ranked SEC, ACC, and B12 teams playing one another, UW will be ranked higher than 23rd the final week of the regular season.

One of Iowa or USC will, of course, have a loss in Week 12 when the Hawkeyes play the Trojans in LA. Iowa finishes with a game against Michigan State, and then is on the road against a crippled Nebraska team, and should finish no worse than 8-4.

Big Ten teams that go 9-3 will finish in the committee's top 25. Seven B1G teams are ranked, two behind the SEC, two more than the ACC, which somehow has five teams ranked, and four more than the B12. Any B1G team that finishes with two or fewer losses is in the PO field.

Hammer the Hawkeyes!

Can Oregon miss the playoffs? I sure hope so. I never want to be one of those teams that expects to make it just because we're us. I want to watch these games with everything on the line. That's what makes them extra fun. To me, if OBD can't win a defensive battle with Iowa or an offensive battle with SUC or a test of wills with the dang fuskies, they don't deserve to compete with top teams in the country for the crown anyway.

I'm sure Lanning feels the need to win every game left and I'm fine with being in that boat. Can't wait for Saturday!

We could easily go 9-3 imo, so yes we could absolutely miss the playoff.

There is value in making the playoff even if you don’t expect to win it; $$, a great experience for young players, minimum goal for a successful year, recruiting tool, etc.

I personally can’t imagine any scenario where playing in a bowl game is the preference. Making the expanded playoff each year should be the minimum expectation moving forward. Favorable match-ups, key injuries, and getting hot can easily lead to a 4 game win streak and title. ND and OSU both experienced elements of this last year.

If we go 10-2, I think when and how we get a second loss is everything. Generally speaking, the earlier you lose the better. If we have to have one more loss, losing this week is the best option for making the playoff at 10-2 imo. Going 10-2 with a lopsided loss in Seattle to end the season is what would put us in the most jeopardy at 10-2.

Let’s not test that theory 😆

Edited 16 hours ago16 hr by JabbaNoBargain

If Oregon can't win out, then they would have a lot of trouble in the playoffs, even if they did make it in.

Iowa will be their third competitive game. They won one and lost one so far. How well the Ducks play vs Iowa will be a sign of what kind of playoff potential they have.

Talent wise, Oregon is near the top of college football.

3 hours ago, The Kamikaze Kid said:

To me, if OBD can't win a defensive battle with Iowa or an offensive battle with SUC or a test of wills with the dang fuskies, they don't deserve to compete with top teams in the country for the crown anyway.

Baylor AD and Playoff Chairman Mack Rhodes: 'The rankings are a blend of art and science.'

No. 9 - Oregon is 7-1 with the 28th most difficult schedule according to the Massey Ratings. OBD's future SOS is ranked 18th. (I'm using Massey because, of course, the metrics the PO committee uses are super-secret, and I lost my Buck Rogers in the 25th Century Decoding Ring five or six decades back. 😁)

Oregon's sole loss was to the Committee's 2nd-ranked team, Indiana. The undefeated Hoosiers SOS is ranked No. 34, undefeated No. 1 Ohio State's is 44th, undefeated A&M's schedule is ranked the 7th most difficult. I get why Booger is bugged.

No. 8 - Texas Tech is 8-1 with Massey's 51st most difficult schedule and 54th in future SOS.

Texas Tech's loss was to a not-unranked ASU team.

Looks like science was used to drop Oregon from AP No. 6 to 9th. Looks like Texas Tech benefited from the PO Artful Dodgers Eye Test.

The highest-ranked 2-loss team is Notre Dame because of two close losses and a win over No. 19 USC. ND defeated SC in a downpour by 10 points. If this is such a great win, why isn't 2-loss SC in the top 15?

USC's remaining SOS is No. 17, Notre Dame's is 42nd. 2-loss Notre Dame is ranked ahead of 1-loss Virginia, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. And 2-loss Miami, which defeated Notre Dame.

I remain bullish on 2-loss B1G teams making the PO field, but even with touted 'new metrics,' it's PO CT. SSDD.

FWIW (Nada!) Oregon has two wins over teams with winning records; Montana State is ranked 2nd in the FCS poll.

8 hours ago, Steven A said:

Alex, your article brought up another scenario for us to ponder . . .

A two loss Ducks team could miss the playoffs. Going forward since we want to see OBD in the playoffs every year it will be a daunting task to go 11 - 1 year after year.

That is a tough ask, so we do need to be prepared for hopefully no more than a one-year absence every so often.

Oregon’s schedule this year did them no favors, nor did Penn State completely falling apart. I don’t think that we have to go 11-1 every year (although that would guarantee a playoff spot ever year, coming out of the power 2).

9 hours ago, Charles Fischer said:

Love Ya Man. And I also love the gal above lighting it up! But you and others do not want to see a two-loss OBD in the PO? I don't get it. Yes, I get the worst-case scenario, I'm a lawyer. More than one loss in the next four games, let's get ready for the Holiday Bowl. 10-2, let's play PO ball!

Oregon basketball may not be a top 16 seed, but does anyone want to see a 20-win or so Oregon CBB team with many losses not make the Tourney field because it might not win a title?

Me? I'll take a spot in the CFB PO every year from the No. 1 seed last season to No. 12 seed, if need be, this season.

As Lou Holtz said, 'You have a different team every time you play.'

OBD may lose at Iowa on Saturday. Many higher-ranked teams have lost at Iowa. This means a 10-2 OBD should not be in the PO? I'm baffled by this negativity. A loss in Iowa City does not mean OBD will lose one or more of the next three games.

Ohio State, 4th in the B1G last season, got into the field and earned redemption. At the end of the regular season, Ohio State was lower than whale feces on the ocean floor. Ryan Day? Dead coach walking.

My undefeated Pats? Super Blown by a bunch of, except for one game, midget Giants. Google it, the G-Men won the Super Bowl.

You never know. Just like you never would have thought the last third of OBD's schedule would see games versus three teams ranked by the committee and a bowl-eligible team.

If you defeat me? If I have the opportunity, I'm getting off the mat and punching you in the mouth.

The Playoff is a new season with new opportunities.

A two-loss Ducks team with the right draw could make it to the title game and win it all. OBD plays in a conference that has the second-most teams ranked by the PO committee. As evidenced by last season's postseason record, which I believe will be repeated this season, the Big Ten does not suck! The push back this season, as evidenced by AP voters, in response to Petitti's PO plan, does suck.

A two-loss OBD more than deserves a place in this season's PO.

And an 11-1 finish will see OBD with a Bye or hosting a 12- to 10-seeded team.

If Will Howard slides a second earlier last season, and Matayo doesn't intercept a pass late in the game in Madison, would a 10-2 Oregon have gone farther in the PO than 13-0 Oregon?

Keep the baby, Faith!

17 hours ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

If Michigan wins out and Oregon wins out then is there a chance Oregon is in the B1G Championship game? The tie-breakers are pretty confusing. Michigan trumps OSU because of H2H win which is the first tie-breaker. This is where I get confused. Does this automatically put Michigan in the CG or do they bump Michigan up against Oregon? I don't know. If they did then Oregon would have the most wins over common opponents (USC) which is the second tie-breaker.

What if Michigan goes to the CG and beats Indiana? I would like to see how the committee sorts that out. They would almost be forced to put all four teams in the playoff. Notre Dame would likely get pushed out if that happened.

This is exactly why I favor Play In Games. It will clear the air for all P4 teams. At present, I would prefer 4 significant blowouts. That would shut everyone up. There wouldn't be an argument that OBD aren't qualified. I also hope OBD avoid the CCG this year. No need for the possibility of what might as well be a year off. I would prefer two weeks off than close to an entire month. The season needs to be compressed. One tradition I am all for is ending the season on New Year's Day. One bye week for the top seeds and everyone else plays the week the seedings are announced. Enough of this layoff nonsense.

I believe this all comes down to how well Dante Moore plays. I've reviewed the tapes. Stein has been killing it (after further review- the call I made about Stein being too conservative has been reversed). Moore missed two TD passes in the 3rd Quarter alone. OBD should have defeated Indiana, and it had two score margin of victory possibilities. But that is what is wrong with shoulda, coulda, woulda. I am even getting to the point where I believe Lupoi is in the same boat (but he has talent gap challenges Stein does not have). It is time the players bring considerably more effort-physically and mentally. I currently believe DL and staff have done everything to get the team over the hump. It is now on the players. I won't be ticked off if they don't play to the best of their abilities, because I still am proud at what they have done to date.

Let's hope they put it all together the next two and a half months. That's all we can do. It is out of our hands.

11 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

Oregon's sole loss was to the Committee's 2nd-ranked team, Indiana. The undefeated Hoosiers SOS is ranked No. 34, undefeated No. 1 Ohio State's is 44th, undefeated A&M's schedule is ranked the 7th most difficult. I get why Booger is bugged.

Believe it or not, this is the first week Indiana would be favored against OBD according to Massey. Massey considers Ohio State, Indiana and OBD the 1,2, and 3 most powerful teams. Strangely, Ohio State has the 4th most powerful offense according to Massey, with Indiana 2nd and OBD 3rd. How about that for power rankings? Massey considers Iowa our biggest remaining challenge with the 10th best defense, and the 45th best offense (USC is 29th and 9th, UW is 23rd and 21st). A stout defense in conditions similar to the Wisconsin game will be a challenge for certain.

Though Stein likes to establish the running game early and often, will he against Iowa? Iowa has a good blitz package, so QB Moore will need to shine under duress. What will Stein pull out of his sleeve this weekend? How will Moore handle pressure from Iowa's stout DL and LBs? I am not so concerned about the OL run blocking. I wonder what Stein will do to protect Moore. One thing I feel good about is how much I am starting to trust both Stein and Lupoi. I think this is on the players. This is a young team. Surprisingly, they have handled conference road games better than conference home games.

I look forward to the next four weekends.