Yikes: Lincoln Riley Is Building a Recruiting Juggernaut at USC

[Charles Fischer]

I know we need this for the conference, and it is not going to make things easy for Oregon.  Tough to read from a good source, and it makes sense...

 

Lincoln Riley Is Building a Recruiting Juggernaut at USC by Ryan Phillips of The Big Lead

 

[Haywarduck]

As Annie pointed out, still not a coach at sc who can control the talent. Oklahoma was way up there in penalty yardage. They could use more discipline and the same talent level and go a long way.

 

I like the thought of sc self imploding, again, against the disciplined Oregon Program under Lanning. 

 

I think Lanning understands it is the 11 guys on the field working together in a disciplined fashion which makes the best team, with the rest ready to go. The Compton elite position team hasn't understood that since Pete, and even then it was hard for him to control.

 

I look forward to when we can look past the recruiting numbers, and look at what really matters. QB development is #1, an elite program has a top arm, and decision maker behind center. The other item is player development and putting them in position to succeed.

 

We know we can recruit, we need player development and scheme to make it all work, more importantly.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Haywardduck.....

 

You said the magic words

 

Player Development......

 

BYU's 2021 recruiting ranking was 71. They developed their players. This year they currently sit at 51. Back to back 10 win seasons.

 

Check out Fresno State, SDSU and Utah States rankings.

 

Those coaches do more with less with their player development.

 

Maybe Mario, learned from his time at FIU that he better recruit higher talent, if he wanted long term success  Because now after 7 total years as HC, his track record shows very little player development. 

 

Did anyone see any improvement from KT this season. Young man should have dominated everything he stepped on the field. Did he?

[Jon Joseph]

This is why the man was hired. The 1st HC to leave OK since 1946. This hire took SC from the back page to the front page. Riley was an excellent recruiter at OK, without much of in-state talent base and and he signed a lot of kids out of CA when he was at OK. SC is "cool" again.

 

With all dur respect, how many Playoffs have BYU, Utah State, Fresno State, etc. qualified for? BYU had a very good year but it lost at home to Boise St and on the road at Baylor. 5-0 vs a Pac-12 as down in CFB as it has ever been. All the schools mentioned above where guys are coached up have to coach guys up. These schools are not signing 4 and 5 star recruits. Not signing the better 3 star recruits.

 

No school without a Blue Chip Ratio won a BCS title. No school without a Blue Chip Ratio has won a Playoff title. Recruiting, plus wisely picking from the portal, matters more than ever. 

 

Recruiting battles that Oregon won vs Helton will be far more difficult to win vs Riley and his staff. SC after being lost post Pete Carroll has stepped up and is spending money like a blue blood should be spending money. The kind of money Bama had to spend to bring Saban back to the SEC from the NFL. I certainly am not going to say that Riley will do anything like what Saban has done at Bama, but I think many the Ducks fan is selling this hire and this guy way, way short.

Edited December 14, 2021 by Jon Joseph

[McDuck]

On 12/14/2021 at 8:27 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Did anyone see any improvement from KT this season. Young man should have dominated everything he stepped on the field. Did he?

Oregon had third and fourth string LB's and DB's playing a lot of snaps.  Wide open passing lanes let the QB get rid of the ball quickly, limiting KT's stats.  Plus he was double and triple teamed.

[shawnski]

On 12/14/2021 at 8:44 AM, McDuck said:

Oregon had third and fourth string LB's and DB's playing a lot of snaps.  Wide open passing lanes let the QB get rid of the ball quickly, limiting KT's stats.  Plus he was double and triple teamed.

Football is a team game. Playing 4th or 5th string walkons as starters is going to hurt. No amount of "coaching" is going to make up the talent difference. 

[UtahDuck]

On 12/14/2021 at 8:27 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Did anyone see any improvement from KT this season. Young man should have dominated everything he stepped on the field. Did he?

 

KT is a top 5 pick, he probably was one last season but he cemented it with his play this year as well. Do his sack/ Tackle numbers look Elite no, but football is more than just looking at the primary statistics.

 

First the most important statistic is their QB hurry rate. To note, the reason the NFL looks at this statistic is that it is consistent and repeatable. Sacks, forced Fumbles, passes Defended all have a significant level of luck to them. Kayvon thibodeaux is number 2 in all of CFB this year. at 19.5. So on 1 in 5 passes he is causing pressure on the QB. That is an incredible(and improved) stat.

 

Second and I can't stress his pass rushing has increased in the ways that he does it as well. When he first started at oregon he only had one skill, the speed rush(rip). Since then his repertoire has increased tremendously. He's added the speed chop, pull rush(power move), stab, and a swim move. His skill set at getting to the qb has increased in a way that dictates that not only is he learning the correct things but that he is putting in a lot of work to do so.

 

As a final note, KT's numbers also don't look amazing when you look at the level that other schools have gone to to limit him. He has faced the highest chiped percentage in the conference and he has faced doubles from OG/OG than anyone in the league. 

 

KT was not only a 5* but he improved at oregon.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/14/2021 at 12:43 PM, cartm25 said:

I don't care about "good for the conference". I care about "good for Oregon." The crummy ACC didn't hold back Clemson from making the playoffs, what, 4 or 5 years in a row? Think about it, if the Ducks had won out, all while clawing victory from the jaws of defeat against "lesser" opponents, and with a crummy PAC-12 conference, they would be in the CFP right now. A strong USC is not good for Oregon, rather, it will be a formidable obstacle.

 

Good take. I more or less agree. Less? If SC is cooking it means more money for the conference and if it is not shut down more subscribers for the Pac-12 network. Equals more money for the Ducks.

[kirklandduck]

This places a rather large importance on retaining as many of the best recruiters on the old staff as possible...McClendon, Mastro, also Salave'a.  It would be great if Mirabal stays but I know that's highly unlikely.

[Steven A]

Riley v Lanning = Magic v Bird 2.0, let's get ready to rumble!

[noDucknewby]

On 12/14/2021 at 9:43 AM, cartm25 said:

I don't care about "good for the conference". I care about "good for Oregon." The crummy ACC didn't hold back Clemson from making the playoffs, what, 4 or 5 years in a row? Think about it, if the Ducks had won out, all while clawing victory from the jaws of defeat against "lesser" opponents, and with a crummy PAC-12 conference, they would be in the CFP right now. A strong USC is not good for Oregon, rather, it will be a formidable obstacle.

 

I couldn't agree more.  What's kept us out of the playoff the last few years has been our inability to win the meaningful late-season games, not the perceived weakness of the P12.  The worn out trope that the conference is no good without blueblood USC on top is just plain lazy journalism.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/14/2021 at 2:39 PM, noDucknewby said:

 

I couldn't agree more.  What's kept us out of the playoff the last few years has been our inability to win the meaningful late-season games, not the perceived weakness of the P12.  The worn out trope that the conference is no good without blueblood USC on top is just plain lazy journalism.

 

There are 3 1L teams in the playoff and 1 undefeated team. Unlike Georgia, Alabama and Michigan, Oregon is not going to get a mulligan. Why? Because the conference is held is such low esteem; justified by the on-field failures. 6 bowl teams? Are you kidding me?

 

No team since the Pac-12 has expanded has gone 13-0. So yes, if Oregon had gone 13 and 0 it would have been in the final 4. It is a huge ask for any team in a P5 conference, even as one as down as the Pac-12, to finish undefeated. Even more so when you play Georgia and BYU OOC in the same season! And you cannot defeat Ohio State and stumble against a 3W Stanford team. You can't lose to an average at best, ASU team. You cannot get blown out twice by a team that lost to BYU, San Diego State and Oregon State. 

 

A better, rising conference would lift all conference boats. If this doesn't happen, Oregon will not be in the playoff unless it goes 13-0. Also, if it doesn't happen Oregon, as part of the conference will fall financially farther and farther behind the B1G and the SEC. And likely behind the ACC and the new B12.

[Guest Axel]

There is a silver lining to a rejuvenated USC program: it will force Oregon to keep up and compete at a very high level. Let USC be the kings of the Pac-12 South; the Ducks can be the kingpins of the Pac-12 North. The Trojans and Ducks will battle every year for a spot in the College Football Playoff, and the runner-up will represent the Pac-12 in the Rose Bowl. 

 

Meanwhile, the Beavers will fight hard each year for a Weed Whacker Bowl appearance, and the Huskies will continue to "win" the off-season Pac-12 title and fall apart when the football season actually begins. 

[Mike West]

On 12/14/2021 at 9:43 AM, cartm25 said:

I don't care about "good for the conference". I care about "good for Oregon." The crummy ACC didn't hold back Clemson from making the playoffs, what, 4 or 5 years in a row? Think about it, if the Ducks had won out, all while clawing victory from the jaws of defeat against "lesser" opponents, and with a crummy PAC-12 conference, they would be in the CFP right now. A strong USC is not good for Oregon, rather, it will be a formidable obstacle.

 

A strong USC gives Oregon the opportunity to reach the playoff, ala SEC style.  

 

When they don't face each other in the regular season, an undefeated USC versus an undefeated Oregon is a top five matchup  (especially the way we've been scheduling).

 

There are no way routes to the playoff.  Win or go home matters.  Just win baby. Everything else takes care of itself.  

 

42-17.  The standard is clear.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Mike West

[noDucknewby]

On 12/14/2021 at 12:07 PM, Jon Joseph said:

 

There are 3 1L teams in the playoff and 1 undefeated team. Unlike Georgia, Alabama and Michigan, Oregon is not going to get a mulligan. Why? Because the conference is held is such low esteem; justified by the on-field failures. 6 bowl teams? Are you kidding me?

 

No team since the Pac-12 has expanded has gone 13-0. So yes, if Oregon had gone 13 and 0 it would have been in the final 4. It is a huge ask for any team in a P5 conference, even as one as down as the Pac-12, to finish undefeated. Even more so when you play Georgia and BYU OOC in the same season! And you cannot defeat Ohio State and stumble against a 3W Stanford team. You can't lose to an average at best, ASU team. You cannot get blown out twice by a team that lost to BYU, San Diego State and Oregon State. 

 

A better, rising conference would lift all conference boats. If this doesn't happen, Oregon will not be in the playoff unless it goes 13-0. Also, if it doesn't happen Oregon, as part of the conference will fall financially farther and farther behind the B1G and the SEC. And likely behind the ACC and the new B12.

 

Well actually two one-loss P12 teams have already made the playoffs, so clearly we can get a mulligan.  In 2019 we were a shoe-in despite losing to a mediocre Auburn team until our late season loss to ASU knocked us out. This season we probably get in if we beat Utah twice, despite losing to Stanford. Of course beating a highly ranked USC team would help the resume, but beating any highly ranked conference team would do the same.

 

USC has the tradition and the huge TV market that makes them very attractive to the media, but that really doesn't do much for the rest of the conference. The chances of a one-loss P12 champion getting into the CFP are still very good with or without a dominant USC. My point is that it hasn't been the weakness of USC that's kept us out of the CFP, it's that we are losing critical games in November. 

[Kurt Rambis]

Control the things you can control.  Nobody at Oregon - not Mullens, Lanning, Knight, or anyone else - can control what happens in South Central.  So why are we worrying about whether this is good or bad for Oregon?  If Riley makes SC a better program year in and year out than Oregon, then SC deserves to go to the CFP or the Rose Bowl.  Simple as that.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/14/2021 at 9:38 PM, noDucknewby said:

 

Well actually two one-loss P12 teams have already made the playoffs, so clearly we can get a mulligan.  In 2019 we were a shoe-in despite losing to a mediocre Auburn team until our late season loss to ASU knocked us out. This season we probably get in if we beat Utah twice, despite losing to Stanford. Of course beating a highly ranked USC team would help the resume, but beating any highly ranked conference team would do the same.

 

USC has the tradition and the huge TV market that makes them very attractive to the media, but that really doesn't do much for the rest of the conference. The chances of a one-loss P12 champion getting into the CFP are still very good with or without a dominant USC. My point is that it hasn't been the weakness of USC that's kept us out of the CFP, it's that we are losing critical games in November. 

 

OK, with the L at Stanford, and the Ohio State loss vs Michigan, who gets in beside Bama and Michigan? 13-0 Cincinnati with two top 25 wins, 11-1 Notre Dame,  a team that blew out Stanford,  12-1 Georgia that lost to the #1 team in the country, or 12-1 Ducks that would have knocked off 6 Ohio State but has the worst L, by far, of the group of contenders and a weak SOS and beat a number of bad opponents by 1 score?

 

You can get in from the Pac-12 with a good OOC win against Michigan State, like Oregon did under Marcus,  but the Pac-12 today is 2 and 8 for the playoff field and has far less national bona fides than the team Mariota played for.

[30Duck]

On 12/15/2021 at 10:21 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

You can get in from the Pac-12 with a good OOC win against Michigan State

 

The Pac-12 is in horrible shape. Until last year, Clemson was good enough to get in from the ACC. But te SEC has rigged the system by having 5 or 6 teams contending from Day 1. Either Oregon or USC will have to be near perfect to get a look at the Playoff, when the SEC, and B1G will have 12 teams fighting for a spot, throw in Notre Dame and Cincy. This time, after Oregon beats Georgia, don't lose to Stanford. 

[DuckFan93]

While some similarities exist between ACC and Pac12, such as neither gets much respect, comparing Oregon to Clemson is premature.   Clemson was consistently good enough to beat Bama.   I don't think we are there yet.  Even if we somehow limped to the CFP this year, the result would look ugly in the first round.   We just haven't had the right combo of coaching and talent in the same year to make it, since the 2015 class.   To win a Natty, we have to set our sights higher and aim at teams like UGA and Bama.  If we can beat them, we ought to be able to play consistently enough to beat the rest of Pac12, even an improved USC.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/15/2021 at 1:31 PM, 30Duck said:

 

The Pac-12 is in horrible shape. Until last year, Clemson was good enough to get in from the ACC. But te SEC has rigged the system by having 5 or 6 teams contending from Day 1. Either Oregon or USC will have to be near perfect to get a look at the Playoff, when the SEC, and B1G will have 12 teams fighting for a spot, throw in Notre Dame and Cincy. This time, after Oregon beats Georgia, don't lose to Stanford. 

 

Great take. The conference is at the P5 bottom of the barrel and refuses to expand? The 'new B12' will be a better conference in CFB and CBB than the Pac-12. 

 

Imo, not to expand and to increase market size if not immediately market share, was a terrible business decision by the conference and new commish and businessperson, GK. Where can the Pac-12 go now if it decides to expand? The chance to get into the Dallas and Houston markets is gone. The big market, big time Pac-12 teams are much more likely to be picked off by the 'new B12' than to find other teams that make sense to add to the conference. The Pac-12 did nothing to improve its bargaining power in the next media negotiations. Nothing to try to find new subscribers for the functionally insolvent Pac-12 network.

 

The Pac-12 powers-that-be are the masters of doing nothing. At least the decision to go to 8 regularly scheduled conference games and to dump divisions should already have been made.

 

I continue to believe that Oregon's best bet along with UW, Stanford and USC, is to join the 'new B12?'

[The Kamikaze Kid]

I just want to see some good football and root for the Ducks to come out on top. Do we really want to see them to sneak into the playoffs because the rest of the conference sucks? Where's the fun in that?

[30Duck]

On 12/15/2021 at 11:31 AM, cartm25 said:

which is why I don't understand the argument that a strong USC helps Oregon;

 

You're right in the sense that as strong as Georgia is, having Alabama in the same conference hurts them. But having a stronger conference has to help overall. The Pac-12, rightly is considered weak, "Pac-12 After Dark" is not only when the games are on, but an apt metaphor for their standing in college football. 

 

As the discussion that JJ and I had earlier in this thread, and so many times before, the Pac-12 remaining status quo is incomprehensible. Oregon and USC are the only teams with a chance to become consistent Playoff contenders, so I feel that improvement for either is helpful. 

[Kurt Rambis]

On 12/15/2021 at 7:37 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

I just want to see some good football and root for the Ducks to come out on top. Do we really want to see them to sneak into the playoffs because the rest of the conference sucks? Where's the fun in that?

Not only that, but I have no interest in getting into the playoffs only to lose 45 - 3.  Frankly, that would be worse than not making the playoffs at all.  That's why it didn't disappoint me much this year that we didn't make it.  Even had we beaten Utah twice and gotten in, we probably would have faced 'Bama, Michigan, or UGA in the first round.  And I don't think any of those would have been pretty the way we played much of the year.  

 

tOSU was lightning in a bottle, but given the youth, injuries, and coaching, we just were not a playoff-level team this year, IMHO.