2022 Oregon Game Predictions: Fun Read

[Log Haulin]

2022 Season

[Duck 1972]

Absotutely love it. If we beat Utah and I don't see why not they are losing their difference maker best offensive player in Covey, we're playing in Autzen and DLs defense will be nothing they have seen before. That's 12/1 with our only loss to UGA and it's on baby.

[Log Haulin]

On 2/11/2022 at 5:07 PM, Duck 1972 said:

Absotutely love it. If we beat Utah and I don't see why not they are losing their difference maker best offensive player in Covey, we're playing in Autzen and DLs defense will be nothing they have seen before. That's 12/1 with our only loss to UGA and it's on baby.

Who says Ducks don't beat the Dogs

Edited February 12, 2022 by Log Haulin

[1Ducker1]

When we played Utah last year we were lacking depth plus nursing end of year minor injuries. Hopefully this year will be better.

[John Charles]

We also had a coaching staff that was MIA.

Edited February 12, 2022 by John Charles

[savagefund]

On 2/11/2022 at 6:07 PM, Duck 1972 said:

Absotutely love it. If we beat Utah and I don't see why not they are losing their difference maker best offensive player in Covey, we're playing in Autzen and DLs defense will be nothing they have seen before. That's 12/1 with our only loss to UGA and it's on baby.

Thought I read somewhere that Lanning uses the 3-3-5.  If that is true Utah is no stranger to it.  Rocky Long at New Mexico and Bronco Mendenhall at BYU used it a lot.  I'm sure Lanning will throw in some interesting tweaks and of course some great athletes.

[PittDuck]

I am loving the statement “Lanning is going to learn something from his first meeting with Utah and make the proper adjustments, winning the Pac-12 Championship game in his first season with the Ducks.”

 

A coaching staff that learns an makes proper adjustments?  Oh Happy Day!

[PittDuck]

On 2/11/2022 at 4:27 PM, Log Haulin said:

2022 Season

I also noted that the prediction has the Duck O averaging 41.9 PPG while the Duck D allows 25 PPG!

 

That will make for happy Duck fans!

[Jon Joseph]

11-2? I think this is hugely optimistic; glass filled all the way to the top. My high water mark is 11-3. My low water mark is 8-5. What I hope to see, is 10-4. I see at least 1L Ls vs Utah. Covey was the Utes most exciting player but not the Utes best player. The Utes return a lot. Got a stud LB from Florida to replace Lloyd and Rising is the undisputed starting QB from day 1. I think if Utah wins at Florida, a final 4 run is in play for Utah. BYU is not on Utah's schedule and Utah gets San Diego State and a cupcake in SLC to round out its OOC schedule.

 

I hope the author is correct but in general, I find his takes to be hugely optimistic. I think Oregon finishes in top 25 and not at the SP+ projected 32, but there are tons of questions regarding the 2022 Ducks and if asked, I'm the guy who says there will be no win in Atlanta, and that vs BYU will be far closer than the author predicts. I do not see the Ducks going 5-0 in conference road games. I think that the game at WSU will be far closer than the author predicts.

 

How you predict final scores without knowing who the starting QB will be, among many other questions, is beyond me.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Log Haulin thanks for posting the article.  It was a very fun, optimistic read but a way to early optimistic read. IMHO, simply too many unanswered questions. QB play, RB play and how will the Defensive players adjust to the new scheme are just a few unknowns.

 

A bigger unknown is the coaching staff? Can they get the players to buy into the new program? How are the coaches at teaching and motivating players?Only a handful of the players are the coaches actual recruits. What other top talent will leave via the portal later this spring?

 

However, there definitely is potential NFL talent on the roster. This roster is packed with players who already accomplished the impossible in the shoe. But this roster also wet the bed against Utah and Oklahoma.

 

It is the off season and optimism carries us thru to Spring ball. My heart says 11-2 and the less glamorous Fiesta Bowl. If all goes well 12-1 and a CFP appearance match up with Georgia. Why not?

 

My analytical process says that is possible. If the coaching staff is CFP worthy they have a roster to work with that is CFP worthy. It must jell with a win over BYU, a twin sweep of Utah, and 9-0 conference record. As others mentioned it sets up better in 2023 than 2022. But it is possible.

 

For all the OBD forum fanatics a 8-4 or 9-3 record is not what we want. I don't blame you for disagreeing with me. However,  losses to Georgia, BYU, Utah and at least one conference road team are seriously in play. 

 

But 2 things are certain that we can hang our hats on. First, numerous sports writers, beat writers, etc will be posting Oregon Duck football click bait. Some positive,  some negative! Great ponder points for this awesome forum. Keep posting them. Second, in September these talented youngsters will step on the field against Georgia, giving it their all. Go Ducks! Coach Lanning very few coaches get a roster this loaded. Make it happen!

[Kurt Rambis]

There are so, so many unknowns with this team.  Brand new coaching staff, led by a first-time head coach.  We know he can recruit and run a defense.  Can he manage a team?  Are the players we have right for his system?  If not, will he and the staff be able to adjust for the type of players we have?

 

Will guys also be able to adjust to the new staff's style and expectations?  How many guys might still transfer when things start to shake out - and will the guys who do be starters or affect depth?  

 

How will our depth be at key areas like WR and RB?  As injuries inevitably happen, will the 2nd and 3rd string guys be able to step up?

 

Will the new trainers and training approaches cut down on the ridiculous number of injuries we had last year?  Or was that just random bad luck and had nothing to do with the training?

 

And of course who's the QB going to be?  Is Thompson really ready?  Will Butterfield surprise?  Will Lanning turn it over to Nix, and will he be worthy of the decision?  Will we have an obvious starter all year, or will the team switch back and forth as various starters underwhelm?

 

This team has a lot of young talent, but it needs to mature quickly.  And if we don't have a QB emerge as a quality starter and leader, it's going nowhere. 

 

While I see a lot of comments on this board about how much more excited various fans are about Lanning than MC, how Lanning is going to be a much better game coach, etc., that's all speculation at this point.  I hope Lanning and his staff end up being the kinds of coaches we think and hope they can be, but the jury is still out with a whooooooole lot of things on the Ducks this season.

 

I wouldn't be shocked for this to be a rough adjustment season if Lanning has growing pains, the players and system/expectations don't match, players don't mature fast, and/or we don't end up with a dependable QB who can make things happen.  I also wouldn't be shocked if this all goes really well and with the talent we have we end up with a one-loss season (probably GA) and a Pac-12 title.  If I had to bet, I'd say 3 - 4 losses is the most likely scenario.  I don't anticipate challenging for the NC nor a complete collapse.

 

I really hope the Ducks prove me to be an unreasonable Debbie Downer!

[Haywarduck]

I don't get it, we are undefeated right, but don't know who the starters will be. We don't know how the first game will go, nor how the team will react to that outcome. The injuries haven't started, nor the replacements had their chance to step in. The coaches haven't had a real opportunity to really coach or put their schemes into action. I say we wait until November where we will know more, and the real rankings come out for the College Football Playoffs. This is the one that matters, and the one we should focus on. Way too early to even begin to think about outcomes.

[Jon Joseph]

Why not a win over UGA? UGA returns its starting QB who won a Natty in 2021. The stadium is 70 miles from UGA's campus and it will be 8-2 to 9-1 UGA fans in attendance. UGA has a lot of experience playing in this stadium. UGA has a better, deeper roster and better DL guys. UGA has a Natty winning HC. UGA competes and wins in a far better conference than the Pac-12. A few years back with the NFL rookie of the year at QB at a site far more neutral than the site for the UGA game, Oregon could not defeat the SEC's 5th or 6th best team.

 

Nix would have to play the game of his career, he's 0-3 vs UGA and UGA would have to play a bad game on both sides of the ball. 1st game of the season as defending champs. I don't think UGA will show up ready to play this game. An Oregon win would be a Miracle on Turf. I think beating BYU will be difficult. Beating UGA would be a huge upset.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Jon Joseph

[Haywarduck]

On 2/13/2022 at 7:03 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Why not a win over UGA? UGA returns its starting QB who won a Natty in 2021. The stadium is 70 miles from UGA's campus and it will be 8-2 to 9-1 UGA fans in attendance. UGA has a lot of experience playing in this stadium. UGA has a better, deeper roster and better DL guys. UGA has a Natty winning HC. UGA competes and wins in a far better conference than the Pac-12. A few years back with the NFL rookie of the year at QB at a site far more neutral than the site for the UGA game, Oregon could not defeat the SEC's 5th or 6th best team.

 

Nix would have to play the game of his career, he's 0-3 vs UGA and UGA would have to play a bad game on both sides of the ball. 1st game of the season as defending champs. I don't think UGA will show up ready to play this game. An Oregon win would be a Miracle on Turf. I think beating BYU will be difficult. Beating UGA would be a huge upset.

It's almost a home game, in distance, for the hurricane program, right?

[Jester]

I'm sure we will be doing this exercise a few times before the GA game.  At this point, we may have just as much luck asking the "Magic 8-Ball" about wins and loses.  That being said, it's fun to put on the prognosticator cap every now and then.

 

Here's what I got.

 

23-13 Loss to GA, essentially in their house?  I'll take it.  Don't expect this game to be this close.  The Dawgs avg. margin of victory in last year's regular season was over 33 points.  Too much, too soon, for this group.    0-1

 

Eastern Washington.  Not only hoping for a win here, but I'd like to see "style points" as well.  EW should afford UO the opportunity to show a few of the "explosive" plays that we've been hearing about.  1-1

 

I don't like the BYU game.  si.com ranks BYU at #2 in terms of "Returning Production".  I do like this game as an early season barometer of how well (or not) the team is starting to come together in terms of chemistry and concept.   1-2

 

Oregon rights the ship against an underwhelming Wazzu team.  Have a feeling this game concludes a little closer than it should, but Oregon just has too much talent.  2-2

 

I feel better about the Stanford match-up since it's in Eugene.  Why does it feel as if this game always comes down to Oregon's defense needing to make a stop to win.  Stanford's recipe for success against Oregon revolves around passing to 6'5" receivers winning jump balls and drawing questionable interference calls at critical moments.  Not this time though.  3-2

 

I'll lump the next two together since I believe we're going to split these match-ups.  Regular season games in the state of AZ (AZ or ASU) have not been kind to UO.  Last regular season win (against ASU) in that state was courtesy of Vern Adams and 61 pts. in a 3OT thriller.  Wasn't Darron Thomas the QB when Oregon last beat AZ in a reg. season game in Tucson?  Weird things happen there.  Then CK & DTR (9th year starter) come to town.  To me, this is the mid-season barometer game.  Hopefully, the team is improving and we are starting to see the identity of the team take shape.  4-3

 

I'm putting the next three together as I believe this should be a sweep.  Cal is...Cal, The Buffs are in trouble this year, and upon returning home following 2 road wins, the Ducks should be primed to put a whipping on the Huskies.  Recency bias leaves me slightly concerned that one of the games will leave us scratching our heads and reluctantly saying, "Same ol' Oregon".  However, I'm opting to have optimism in the new staff.  Thus, this stretch of games finishes with Oregon being:  7-3

 

Well, here it is.  Coming into this one on a win streak, and with 2 of the 3 losses coming to top 12 teams (one of them top 3), revenge on it's mind, and prime-time coverage that will draw attention with the overdue national recognition of Utah being much better than "pretty good."  Unfortunately, Oregon can't quite bridge the gap the was painfully revealed last year.  I'm being "Captain Obvious" by suggestion this year's version will be closer than last year's GAMES, but - it will be.  Improvement, but still:  7-4

 

Was checking OSU postings to get a take on how they felt about their schedule.  I just plucked the following (in italics) for reference. 

 

Brenden Slaughter & Jared Halus

BeaversEdge.com Staff

 

Last but not least, we arrive at the rivalry game with Oregon, and with it being back in the friendly confines of Reser Stadium, anything is possible in that contest as well.

 

Well, they're a feisty bunch but that's not going to get it done.  8-4

 

Of course these "guesstimates" are all conjecture until we get closer to the regular season.  Just too many variables at this point, and then there's the question of overall team health going into game #1.  Look forward to playing "Jester the Greek" again following the spring game.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

A little lower than I think the Ducks will finish. I see 10-2/9-3? To me, the swing games are BYU, at WAZZU and Utah. UCLA? Chip has yet to hire a replacement DC and the Bruins lost a lot of punch at the WR and TE position. Bruins had 8 wins last season but defeated no team that finished with a winning record. I do share the concern about any game played in Arizona, a no win Zona for the Ducks as of late, will be a test.

 

23-13? I'd take that in a heartbeat vs UGA in the ATL. The Ducks has the LBs to man up with UGA, but the DL and DBs? The UGA QB isn't 'fancy,' all he does is win games. Including a Natty. Oregon's roster is equal to SC and superior to every team in the Pac-12; but it isn't close to the UGA roster. The only good news? UGA has a bad record in Mercedes Benz. A Peach Bowl win over Cincinnati but lots of Ls. Of course, those L's came against 'pretty good' Bama teams and versus Joe Burrow's Tigers.

 

WAZZU? I think Cameron Ward who won the 'little Heisman' last season, the Walter Peyton Award for the best player in FCS, will be a handful. His HC at Immaculate Word follows Cam to Pullman where he will be the Cougars OC. This young man threw for close to 5,000 yards last season; he put up close to 500 yards in IM's losing bowl game effort. Except in a disappointing bowl loss, WSU had a 4th Q lead against all but 1 team it lost to. Strange things happen in Pullman.

[30Duck]

With the BYU game at home, my prognostication is a W, and with Utah; they're returning in great shape, but some of how great they looked in the two games against the Ducks was because the Ducks were so bad in those games. 

 

By the end of this season, these will be the Lanning Ducks, the game is at Autzen, I predict a big W for the O. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/13/2022 at 4:10 PM, 30Duck said:

With the BYU game at home, my prognostication is a W, and with Utah; they're returning in great shape, but some of how great they looked in the two games against the Ducks was because the Ducks were so bad in those games. 

 

By the end of this season, these will be the Lanning Ducks, the game is at Autzen, I predict a big W for the O. 

Are you predicting a back-to-back Champ game Ducks/Utes match up? A Ducks win in the regular season could send USC to the Champ game?

[30Duck]

On 2/13/2022 at 1:29 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Are you predicting a back-to-back Champ game Ducks/Utes match up? A Ducks win in the regular season could send USC to the Champ game?

That's more involved than I was intending. Though if Oregon's win over Utah puts the Trojans in the Championship Game, Lanning vs, Riley No. 1. 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

On 2/13/2022 at 1:10 PM, 30Duck said:

 

By the end of this season, these will be the Lanning Ducks, the game is at Autzen, I predict a big W for the O. 

I agree. As the season moves along, the team should resemble Lanning more every game. Towards the end of the schedule, they should be running on all cylinders. Mario's teams so underwhelmed us week after week, we forget how much potential awesome lurks at nearly every position.

[Mike West]

I'm going to wait until the Spring Game before I start analyzing OBD.

 

I'm biased right now.  UGA is the only team I see with the ability to control the game when we play.  

 

I'll say it till the mountains crumble:. We have enough raw talent to beat everyone we play.  We almost have enough talent to take it all. 

 

And think about this: Bo Nix is a far better game manager than Stetson Bennet.  So if Lanning decides to use the defense as our lethal weapon, we are in the hunt for a title right now.  

 

Can't wait till the Spring Game.  

[Jon Joseph]

MY BAD! The Pac-12 Champ does play in the Rose Bowl this season. Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-final sites. The Rose Bowl will be played on Monday January 2, 2023; the 1st falls on a Sunday.