Why Can't the Ducks Beat Georgia?

[Duck 1972]

Why can't we beat UGA with basically the same team that went into the shoe and beat tOSU? Been there done that (as far as going into hostile territory and overcoming an winning).

 

I believe we will be better than last year. I don't believe 1st game out they will be. Guess I'm just a greybeard homer. Oh well!

[Log Haulin]

By September Mario's boys will be Lanning's men. Fully bought in and ready to go at a high level. Lanning has done nothing but impress and this roster, by Sept, will run through walls for the man. 

[DanLduck]

It will be decided by QB play. Whoever becomes our starter will need to play well. If we can keep the score close...

...anything is possible. 

[Jon Joseph]

Why? I prefer why not, but this is a 'home' game for Georgia. Being played in a stadium where UGA has played many games; 72 miles from the campus in Athens. And many the UGA grad lives in Atlanta compared to the number of Oregon grads. UGA has played many the game in front of the 'unruly' SEC crowd that will be in Mercedes Benz Stadium. Very few guys on the Ducks team will have played in this kind of atmosphere and in front of this kind of SEC crowd. The crowd will be geeked to watch the defending champions in its opening game.

 

Lanning left but Kirby Smart stayed. Lanning was running Kirby's D. Before Kirby returned to coach at his alma mater he was a terrific DC for Saban at Alabama. Most of Georgia's excellent coaching staff returns. This is Lanning's 1st game as a HC and under him are a whole bunch of new assistant coaches. This group has zero game experience coaching together. 

 

UGA returns a starting QB who just won the Natty over Alabama. Nix has beaten Bama but is 0-3 vs the Dawgs. The Dawgs roster will be far more highly rated than will be Oregon's roster. And while UGA has lost a lot of 'beef' to the NFL, there is still a lot of 4 star and 5 star big boys on Georgia's roster. Guys on D who will want to show their former DC that he never should have headed west. And Georgia's incoming group of recruits significantly trumps the Oregon incoming group. 

 

What player on Oregon's D will be able to match up with TE Bowers? Likely the best TE in CFB. And while not slow, can Oregon match Georgia's team speed. Oregon has a very good group of LBs but will they be good enough to cover both Bowers and seasoned RBs coming out of the backfield?

 

And Dye, sigh, is a big loss on the O. Not only at RB but as an excellent receiver out of the backfield. While Oregon will have weapons on O, many of these guys have not been in combat of this nature.

 

This is not Oregon versus Auburn under Malzahn with Nix as a new starting QB for the Tigers. That was the 5th best team in the SEC the year Nix brought Auburn back for the win in Dallas. Aided and abetted by horrendous sit on a lead coaching by Mario.

 

Of course, there is the chance for a win. But I for one will be very pleased if Oregon can hang in and cover the spread. If Oregon can take the game into the 4th quarter. Michigan in 2021 was not a bad football team. Georgia smothered that Wolverines team in the playoff semi. Both Oregon and Michigan caught Ohio State in year when the Buckeyes D was historically, at least since the inception of the playoff, bad. This UGA D will be far superior to the D Oregon played against in Columbus in 2021.

 

Oregon's best hope. No matter what Kirby tells them, will the UGA players think that it will be a walk-over against a Pac-12 team that was eviscerated in 3 of its last 4 games?

 

No team in the country has a harder opening game than do the Ducks in 2022. No loss in CFB is a 'good loss.' But if the Ducks come out of this game losing by 10 points or less and I for one, will see this a 'victory.'

[HappyToBeADuck]

Why or why not.........

 

It's difficult for me to think the Ducks can duplicate the result in the shoe against the Bulldogs. As Jon points out, the tOSU defense was not elite. It was the perfect storm for the Ducks to pull the upset.

 

Don't get me wrong, the Ducks earned that great victory. They can certainly equal the effort and execute a masterful game plan against Georgia. However that may not be enough. Their is no reason to believe the Bulldogs will have a let down in 2022.

 

We can only hope they under estimate the Ducks. Can lightning strike twice?

 

Too many ifs at this point to feel confident about a victory. I am confident the players will give it their all. Keep the score close, hit a few bombs and play with your hair on fire. Another game in the national spot light. Go Ducks.....

[1Ducker1]

Line depth

[David Marsh]

I think it is possible but perhaps a bit unlikely... Georgia has lost a lot of starters that made that team tick but they are going to reload fairly well. Oregon will put up a fight and I think if Oregon plays an inspired and clean game with a few lucky bounces the game could go either way. Though barring some help from lady luck I feel it is Georgia's game ... at least for now.

 

As for Oregon going into Ohio State and beating them last year... I think there is a factor that Ohio State fans collectively realized but haven't actually said... Maybe Ryan Day isn't as good as all the media says he is? Yes, he can recruit well and with Meyer's players he got to the playoff and National Championship game... but he has some learning and a ways to go himself. Ohio State will get better but Day also has some learning curves before he can be considered a great coach.

 

By no means am I calling Oregon's win at Ohio State a fluke... Oregon outplayed Ohio State that day but it also felt like Ohio State perhaps didn't live up to their own talent.

[Mike West]

On 2/28/2022 at 10:33 PM, David Marsh said:

I think it is possible but perhaps a bit unlikely... Georgia has lost a lot of starters that made that team tick but they are going to reload fairly well. Oregon will put up a fight and I think if Oregon plays an inspired and clean game with a few lucky bounces the game could go either way. Though barring some help from lady luck I feel it is Georgia's game ... at least for now.

 

As for Oregon going into Ohio State and beating them last year... I think there is a factor that Ohio State fans collectively realized but haven't actually said... Maybe Ryan Day isn't as good as all the media says he is? Yes, he can recruit well and with Meyer's players he got to the playoff and National Championship game... but he has some learning and a ways to go himself. Ohio State will get better but Day also has some learning curves before he can be considered a great coach.

 

By no means am I calling Oregon's win at Ohio State a fluke... Oregon outplayed Ohio State that day but it also felt like Ohio State perhaps didn't live up to their own talent.

 

My only disagreement to this very good statement is the Ducks had two shots at pulling away and truly stun the college football world.  

 

MC blew it. But what else is new.  That game opened my eyes to how much talent MC had really acquired.  It isn't as deep or talented as UGA, but last year's team should have annihilated the conference and reached the playoffs.

 

Can't wait to see what Lanning does with this group.

[Haywarduck]

I can tell you why we shouldn't expect Oregon to beat Georgia, it's unrealistic. We can want them to beat Georgia, be thrilled if it happens, but we can't expect it. Expectations need to be kept in check, even if we pull off an upset.

 

I think part, a very small part, of the problem last year was we beat tosu early in the season. We were then an elite team, and expectations were we would, should beat everyone, even with a weaker lineup. Fortunately the Miami faithful thought Mario was an elite coach at that time too, and were probably fooled more than anyone. Becoming an elite team is a process full of ups and downs, and won't happen overnight.

 

Dan Lanning is going to be a great coach, the Ducks are going to continue to rise up to great heights. We need to be thrilled with the positive surprises and understanding of the letdowns. We can't beat Georgia, and think we could do it every time, or that there wasn't a lot of luck involved. We can beat them, but it won't define the program.

[Just Ducky]

If we can score points early and keep pressure on Georgia’s offense to play catch up we can win that game. Sounds easy but trust me it will not be. Dan knows the weaknesses on that defense more than anyone so for that reason alone we have a chance. The offense needs to show up and be aggressive early. Will that Happen? Probably not. But we are dreamers.

go s

[kirklandduck]

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Being thrown into the deep end of the pool game one to sink or swim will be a great test of Lanning’s leadership skills.

 

Does UGA separate before half, then floodgates open with post game finger pointing? Not a good sign.
 

Does UO Keep within two scores the entire game with team pumped for the next one? About as much as we can realistically hope for.

 

Do the Ducks actually pull this off and jump into the playoff conversation week one? Dare to dream!

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/1/2022 at 1:33 AM, David Marsh said:

I think it is possible but perhaps a bit unlikely... Georgia has lost a lot of starters that made that team tick but they are going to reload fairly well. Oregon will put up a fight and I think if Oregon plays an inspired and clean game with a few lucky bounces the game could go either way. Though barring some help from lady luck I feel it is Georgia's game ... at least for now.

 

As for Oregon going into Ohio State and beating them last year... I think there is a factor that Ohio State fans collectively realized but haven't actually said... Maybe Ryan Day isn't as good as all the media says he is? Yes, he can recruit well and with Meyer's players he got to the playoff and National Championship game... but he has some learning and a ways to go himself. Ohio State will get better but Day also has some learning curves before he can be considered a great coach.

 

By no means am I calling Oregon's win at Ohio State a fluke... Oregon outplayed Ohio State that day but it also felt like Ohio State perhaps didn't live up to their own talent.

Good comment, thanks.

 

Day knew he had to do something with the Buckeyes D that did not play well in 2020, and this continued into 2021. He is bringing in Campbell who was the DC of an excellent D (sounds crazy, I know) at Oklahoma State. The cowboys finished No. 7 in the country last season and made a great comeback to defeat higher ranked Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Campbell is bringing along lots of 'his guys.' Big turnover of Buckeyes D assistant coaches. In other words Day, who certainly can coach up an offense is making the moves on the D side of the ball you would expect a quality coach to make.

 

Ohio State, down many the quality starting player, outscored a game Utah team in the Rose Bowl; a Utes team that embarrassed the Ducks twice in 3 weeks. Day has recruited to the standard of Urban Meyer. I think Ohio State's L in Ann Arbor last season was an outlier. I expect Day and the Buckeyes to return to the final 4 in 2022.

 

(The hire of Campbell led to the hire of old friend Derek Mason as the OK ST new DC. A job Derek took for less money than he was being paid at Auburn.)

 

As for UGA losing a lot of guys who made the team go in 2021, this is partially correct. But lots of excellent players return and the back ups for the guys who departed are all big time recruits. All part of top 3 or better, recruiting classes. Lanning is a loss no doubt but Lanning was running Kirby Smart's D, a D Kirby brought with him from Alabama. The same system will be in place for the Georgia D as has been played since Kirby returned to coach his alma mater.

 

Most importantly for UGA in its opening game in 2022, the QB who won a Natty, Stetson, is back.  Stroud was starting his 2nd game for Ohio State and still lit up, yardage-wise, the Ducks D. There will be no learning curve for the UGA QB and the UGA O. Meanwhile, Oregon will have a new starter at QB playing for a new OC. And unlike last season when Oregon had a game under its belt before playing in Columbus, this will not be the case this season in Atlanta.

 

So possible? Yes. 'A bit unlikely?' I love the enthusiasm but I think it is highly unlikely the Ducks can pull off the win in Atlanta and for what it's worth, the oddsmakers agree with me. If the Ducks can take this game into the 4th quarter I will be most happy.

 

I reiterate, UGA home and home, a chance to play Georgia in Autzen, I'm all in. But a one off game in Atlanta for the money? I do not believe Oregon should be scheduling like this. Many the Pac-12 schools outside of LA have upcoming H+H series with SEC teams, including Utah which plays at Florida on 9/3/22 and has a return game vs the Gators in SLC in 2023. I also note that Georgia once upon a time canceled a H+H with Oregon. Ohio State was scheduled as a home and home series. 

 

This game has not been on the schedule for years. Mullens agreed to play this game 3 seasons back. I think the Oregon football program has acquired the bona fides not to have to play one-off games vs SEC teams in SEC territory. Leave these kind of games to The Citadel.

 

Again David, I hope your enthusiasm and that of others on the board is warranted. I am not throwing in the towel prior to kickoff but to win this game would be a big time upset against a team significantly better than the team Oregon defeated in Columbus last season.

[David Marsh]

On 3/1/2022 at 11:09 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I hope your enthusiasm and that of others on the board is warranted. I am not throwing in the towel prior to kickoff but to win this game would be a big time upset against a team significantly better than the team Oregon defeated in Columbus last season.

I tuned into the Oregon-Ohio State game last year expecting a big loss... Oregon in the previous week lost KT and Flowe and Mathis... basically week 1 and three starter injuries.... not a good way to start. 

 

Then Oregon left Ohio State with a win... soooo I'm going to be cautiously optimistic here but I am not expecting a week 1 win for Lanning. 

[Duck 1972]

I believe the Ducks gain an advantage in confidence knowing they went toe to toe with a blue blood. Maybe it won't be enough but they supposedly had no chance last year at tOSU. Everybody except them. And even though the points above are all valid they can be mitigated by some examination.

 

Ok tOSU defense wasn't up to snuff but we still held them to 28 points. I believe that was one of the lowest scores they have put up at home in a long time.

 

I believe we will be better at QB then last year. RB I believe we are at least even. The rest of the offense returns and should be better and they will have no idea what we are going to do or even capable of with our new coaches. But we know what they are doing.

 

On defense we are better just because of DL and his game plan. Under his tutelage we are going to surprise people. We will have proven players all over the field. They are having to replace a lot.

 

Our Special Teams should be better with Lorig running the show. 

 

I know I could be wrong but I just have this feeling of the perfect storm. 

 

Go Ducks Fly High

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Duck 1972

[Jon Joseph]

Michigan is a Blue Blood. Michigan last season defeated Ohio State, won the B1G going away in the B1G champ game. And the Wolverines was destroyed by Georgia in the playoff semi-final. 

 

Can a perfect storm happen inside a domed arena?

 

LOVE the optimism. But?

[Duck 1972]

Jon UGA/UM was at end of the season.. As a metaphor yes even in a dome. Let loose the Duck. Optimism is flying etc. Do you find any of my points valid or is it only wishful thinking? 

[Charles Fischer]

Duck 1972… I do not think Jon finds anything invalid with your opinion, he simply disagrees, and did so in a nice way.

[30Duck]

The thought going into the OH.ST. game last season was that the Ducks didn't really have a chance. It appears that the Buckeyes also had that opinion and the combination of that and some inspired play by the Ducks got them the W. 
 

In this game, I don't think the Ducks are likely to win either, but unlike the Buckeyes, the Bulldogs will be focused on beating the Ducks. Lanning will have his team fired up, and Georgia, who has shown nothing but respect towards Lanning and Oregon, would love nothing more than smashing the Ducks to start their season. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/2/2022 at 11:27 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Duck 1972… I do not think Jon finds anything invalid with your opinion, he simply disagrees, and did so in a nice way.

AMEN. I simply love the enthusiasm shown by Duck 1972 and others. Of course there is a chance that the Ducks can win this game; especially, if Nix' ankle is 100%. This will be Nix' 4th and not 1st rodeo, versus Georgia. 

 

In its first game as defending champ I expect UGA and its fans to be super-geeked. But that does not mean that Georgia could well underestimate Oregon? If Oregon can play its best ball and Stetson plays like he did in the SEC champ game vs Bama and not like he played vs Bama in the playoff title game? Who knows?

 

Clearly in that SEC champ game the Dawgs underestimated Bama.

 

1 thing Oregon does have going for it, UGA has a bad record playing in Mercedes Benz stadium. Georgia did beat Cincinnati in a close Peach Bowl game but has lost every SEC champ game it has played in Atlanta. Of course, when you are playing Alabama?

 

Nothing could be better for the Pac-12 than if the Ducks could come through with a huge upset win and on the same day Utah takes down the Gators in The Swamp.

[Duck 1972]

Didn't think any thing bad was just asking what he thought about my line of reasoning. I find that it helps me to have a discussion about my ideas and I value Jons opinion.

[amcdawg]

Hello again!

It is way too early for much X's and O's talk for UGA.  We need to get thru our combine (workouts and drills before spring practice to kinda "set the board", kind of a pre-spring depth chart) and spring practice, then transfers in and out.  

Not to sound too old school but this game will be determined by each teams ability to run and stop the run.  I would have thought UGA's OL would be a strength next year, but with a new OL coach and a couple new starters you never know how they will mesh, especially game one.

 

I think UGA's secondary will be pretty good, luckily we got two super seniors coming back their that have starting experience and the two starting OLB's in the natty are back, but the concern is up the middle.  Almost impossible to replace the ILB's UGA had last year, but there are some absolute dudes athletically at that position.  But will they keep/hit their assignment?, especially game one.

 

The DL loses three guys that are mocked in the first or second round of this year's NFL draft.  A drop off is inevitable, but luckily they rotate a lot of guys so we have guys that have experience.  But providing depth is one thing, will they be able to step up and produce against a really talented team, especially game one.

 

I agree with Jon Joseph regarding the intangibles, the crowd will obviously be very pro-UGA and will be hyped after this year's Natty.  I do not think you will get your wish on UGA underestimating the Ducks.  Kirby has a rep of not being an easy guy to coach for (see the attrition) or to play for.  He REALLY gets after people in practice as does his S&C guys in the off season. I realize all coaches do to some extent but he is a Saban guy, good and bad.  They will be focused at game time.

Having said all that I would pick UGA right now, but this game concerns me a lot.  And I have not even gotten into the fact that Dan Lanning will know us inside and out.

Take care, hope the Ducks have a safe offseason, hearing your name a lot amongst recruiting circles!

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/2/2022 at 5:21 PM, amcdawg said:

Having said all that I would pick UGA right now, but this game concerns me a lot.

Outstanding post, and I look forward to diving in further with you as we get closer.  

[Viking Duck]

On 3/2/2022 at 5:21 PM, amcdawg said:

Hello again!

Great post!

 

Just on general principles, since I do not feel like an expert commenting on Georgia, Oregon has a chance just like it did against Ohio State last year, particularly because the Ducks have built up enough talent to be dangerous even to the top recruiting schools. Another wild card which could help or hurt is the fact it's the first game of the season.

 

I think there is a reason that people use the phrase 'tune up game' and most top schools traditionally scheduled one of those before facing a tough opponent. If one or the other team's new collection of starters is not yet in sync, it can skew the result in unexpected ways.

 

No matter how you slice it, Oregon is going to be an underdog in the game, but they definitely have a chance. I can remember when that was not the case; one that sticks in my mind was listening to Oregon vs. Nebraska on my parents' AM radio when Oregon qualified as an easy tune up game and ended up as a 63-0 Cornhusker win.

 

The nice thing is that now the expectations have changed, even nationally, that it will be a tough game for both teams and a marque match-up for the first week.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Viking Duck