Charles Fischer Administrator No. 1 Share Posted March 18, 2022 It is an interesting question because all of us believe that if it is not stopped from its current form--it will ruin college football. The owner of one of the pay-sites was lamenting that the Ducks cannot match the crazy offers of NIL like what Nico got, (8 million) but we can do enough to still have a top recruiting class. It was compared to a Moneyball scenario where upside analysis of players becomes even more crucial. His example was quarterbacks, as there are a ton left for 2023 that will not have the extreme NIL cost, but could very well end up as good as the most highly ranked QBs. He said that in the bidding....Oregon is not like the Oakland A's, but is also not like the Yankees. And fortunately, there are many players looking at the big picture of their future, their development, their relationship with their position coach...in addition to some NIL. Eventually, public outcry will demand change, but that won't be for a while. In the meantime, I do think Oregon can compete because all that money spent in the past on "Building Brand" is going to pay off and buy us some time before changes are made. I'm sticking to my "enjoy it for three years," but it may go longer, and perhaps the worst will NOT happen. That is my Duck fantasy, and I'm sticking to it! For some....this will do. 1 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tandaian No. 2 Share Posted March 18, 2022 As long as the Nike connection is strong at Oregon, the Ducks will be fine. They will never be an Alabama, tOSU, Texas A&M, etc when it comes to NIL deals, but we will be better than at least 75% of other D1 schools. It is the wild wild west right now, but I think it will calm down. Donors aren't going to keep spending money on kids that don't play or transfer out after 1 season. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 3 Share Posted March 18, 2022 I also think it will mellow out with high school players. On the other hand there will be many college transfers that will be after better deals and many schools will be willing to wait on some of these kids and let other schools like Tandaian mentioned above take the risk up front. I do like Oregon’s approach of not jumping into it with both feet. This is a more sound direction than A&M is using and more sustainable in the long run I would think. Let’s face it those 3 schools mentioned along with Miami, USC and many others, including The Ducks, have been involved in shady deals to get the players they wanted in the past. That’s part of the reason Kelly left. Only difference is now it’s all out in the open for everyone to see. And it’s not a pretty sight. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDuck No. 4 Share Posted March 18, 2022 On 3/18/2022 at 9:47 AM, Tandaian said: It is the wild wild west right now, but I think it will calm down. Donors aren't going to keep spending money on kids that don't play or transfer out after 1 season. Do we really believe donors make a cost/benefit analysis? In major programs they pony up millions to fire the current coach and his staff, then pledge millions more to hire the flavor of the day. U$C saw four head coaches and two interim in twelve years. Think Miami. In a few years they will repeat the process. The cost is millions per year. Why would NIL be any different? 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 5 Share Posted March 18, 2022 I don't know how long these multi million dollar signing deals are going to hold out. Some of these deals are more lucrative than being drafted in the NFL. Though unlike the NFL there isn't really enough of a resume to ensure the risk is rewarded. There are always flops even at the NFL level. However... a 63% draft rate for 5 stars is a bit of a red flag for some of the deals these 5-star players are getting before ever playing a snap at the college level. Is Nico worth 8 million dollars? Maybe... or maybe he will be a flop and not even be drafted into the NFL. Either way... the Tenn boosters will be out 8 million dollars. Some schools' boosters are very short sighted right now... they have lots of money and more than happy to pay top dollar to get top recruits to come to their school of choice. But how many of these big deals will turn into flops? And how many flops will result in boosters loosing some of their interest to pay for recruits up front? Oregon and Phil Knight are playing the long game right now... keeping the roster together to avoid some of the transfer portal attrition. Pay the players for staying with the program, pay the players for proving they are capable of playing at a high level. This is a long game... we will probably struggle with some of these recruits in the short run until some boosters decide the risk isn't worth the money.... or some sort of rules and guidelines get put on NIL. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Author Administrator No. 6 Share Posted March 18, 2022 On 3/18/2022 at 11:09 AM, McDuck said: Why would NIL be any different? I would like to think that money created this, and things will ultimately get changed because of money. Too many smaller schools will have NO chance to compete, and could opt out of all sports. This would reduce the number of scholarships for women by the thousands nationally, and I believe we would see a Court case on behalf of all the women about to lose their chance at a college education while playing Lacrosse, or running hurdles, etc. Schools KNOW that athletics bring donations for academic purposes as well, and thus cannot reduce all sports to "Club" status. Too many people will miss out with the new "Wild-West" because of money, thus I've gotta think that reasonable change is in the future. But not soon. Someday they'll accept less for NIL... 3 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake Moderator No. 7 Share Posted March 18, 2022 There are over 500,000 “student-athletes according to the NCAA video played between games at the NCAA BB tourney that I attended yesterday. Not all of those athletes receive scholarships, but NIL will substantially change the financial landscape. University’s may potentially make decisions to eliminate some sports because of their ability to fund programs. The long term ramifications will go one of two ways…left unchecked it may eliminate many scholarship opportunities, or it will be managed sensibly so that sports can flourish and scholarship opportunities continue to be abundant. I am not overly optimistic at this moment. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrw Moderator No. 8 Share Posted March 18, 2022 If...if...student-athletes are legally employees, then I don't see how anything can stop unlimited NIL money. Restraint of trade laws would apply, or something like them, right? Not to say everyone, or even most people, would want this situation. But, all it would take is one athlete, or parent, or booster, or university to test the limits and get a favorable court ruling. But, if student-athletes are not employees, then limits and rules could be applied. But by what organization? Does the NCAA really exist anymore? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 9 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Can Oregon Survive the NIL .... HELL YES. By abandoning the uw prowess approach and relying upon minds MUCH greater than mine (ok, I realize that is a HUGE club), I am quite confident that our athletic department, "partners" and Uncle, will allow us to thrive in the NIL space. 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllOregon No. 10 Share Posted March 19, 2022 (edited) If Dan thought Nico was the next Heisman, and Phil agreed, doesn’t besting $8M seem easily in Phil’s wheelhouse? Maybe Phil does not want to pony up as much as people are assuming despite his desires for a Natty, his age, and his billions. Edited March 19, 2022 by AllOregon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 11 Share Posted March 19, 2022 We are assuming spending millions on NIL deals is good for a program. Spending big money on Cam Newton transferring paid off. DJ getting big money on the Dr. Pepper deal didn't pay off. My bet Texas A&M will be an experiment many will learn from, much of it not too good. I would say our mega donor knows when a recruit or transfer is worth the money. He picked Tiger when he was a kid and created a whole division, golf, based on what he knew was going to happen. Even bigger was what he saw with MJ, a whole brand worth billions. I think Mr. Knight knows how to spend his money better than almost, if not all donors. Our facilities speak to the student athletes and the parents. I would say the reason we can recruit so well is parents and athletes are impressed by our facilities. Most importantly the parents know their kids will be taken care of. The academic center is second to none. The rehab facilities all also world class. Parents concerns are not only allayed, both parents and student athletes can be assured the dreams and fears are taken care of. I will patiently wait for the money to be spent in a wise way by the Oregon mega donors. For now I see us effectively dipping our toes in the water. What I see is other programs jumping in with both feet, some may not come back up. We will be just fine. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyToBeADuck No. 12 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Great comments by all on this thread. So early in the game of NIL to have any concrete results. Will boosters continue to pay millions without Natty's? In Texas boosters have been paying big bucks for decades. Limited Natty's has not slowed the money train. A & M will probably pump it out until they get one. Others schools maybe not. We live in a results orientated world. To early for results. Let's let this topic percolate for a few years. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 13 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Charles, great take and great question. In answer to your inquiry, I believe Oregon will survive NIL. But what CFB will look like after the new round of media negotiations, transitioning the regulation of G5/P5 football away from the NCAA, playoff restructuring, inability to regulate NIL without a players union, inability to regulate 'free agency' without a players union, players becoming 'employees,' if a players union comes about, normal 'market corrections' not happening in regard to 'fanatic-driven' NIL deals, additional conference expansion/contraction, etc., ad nauseum? I have NO IDEA? NONE! Except, I do know with certainty that financially the B1G and the SEC are in the process of becoming the P2. But, what can you do? Other than the foregoing financial fact, I can hazard 'educated' guesses as to where CFB is going and Oregon along with it, but my crystal ball is far from flawless. So, I plan to follow the sage advice of Charles,' enjoy Ducks football today as it is today; whatever may be will be. As to Texas ATM, Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, etc., SEC teams have been cheating for decades and taking pride in it: 'If you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin!' At least now most of the chicanery [feel free to insert your choice of word(s) in place of 'chicanery] in the SEC is above the table. I say to Hades with the SEC! With this additional admonition: Stop scheduling 1- off games vs SEC teams in Dixie. STOP! Schedule no OOC games against teams unwilling to play in Autzen. GO DUCKS! 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dukduponquak No. 14 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/18/2022 at 5:33 PM, jrw said: If...if...student-athletes are legally employees, then I don't see how anything can stop unlimited NIL money. Restraint of trade laws would apply, or something like them, right? Not to say everyone, or even most people, would want this situation. But, all it would take is one athlete, or parent, or booster, or university to test the limits and get a favorable court ruling. But, if student-athletes are not employees, then limits and rules could be applied. But by what organization? Does the NCAA really exist anymore? NCAA has been and will be a joke! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 15 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/19/2022 at 1:31 PM, Dukduponquak said: NCAA has been and will be a joke! The NCAA has 'washed it hands' of having anything to do with P5/G5 CFB. Soon, conferences in the G5/P5 will CFB-wise, be operating under their own rules and regulations. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 16 Share Posted March 19, 2022 OT - Florida QB Emory Jones, who started 12 games for the Gators in 2021, has entered the transfer portal. UF went 6-7 in 2021 so it will be very interesting to see what kind of NIL deal this young man will command? Utah opens the 2022 season in The Swamp; I doubt that Coach Whit was troubled by this news? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDuck No. 17 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/19/2022 at 10:51 AM, Jon Joseph said: Soon, conferences in the G5/P5 will CFB-wise, be operating under their own rules and regulations. Roughly akin to letting the CEO's of the 30 member Dow Jones Industrial Average write the anti-trust laws. All the power will be in a few hands to the detriment of us all. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 18 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Not sure if anyone else has noticed the announcers for the NCAA games continually referring to players as 'X, who is a transfer from Y.' We definitely need to get use to the effects of the new transfer rule and NIL development. No longer is it going to be 'X who grew up just a few blocks from campus is playing really well.' Years from now it will be, 'you played NCAA basketball, how many schools did you attend?' Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 19 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/19/2022 at 10:51 AM, Jon Joseph said: NCAA has been and will be a joke! Under the non-leadership of the former official butt sniffer (who remains a non-official butt sniffer), mark emmert, what else would you expect? 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
FG Lumber No. 20 Share Posted March 19, 2022 I think it's almost like the professionals and pro sports "free agency" and it's about to become untenable. Hit the Transfer portal to see who'll bid on your services? The athletes in college aren't signing contracts like the pros do. I'm afraid it's a death knell to the game we grew up watching with so much passion. Fan loyalty is far greater than student athlete loyalty and those young minds, especially those from unfortunate backgrounds. "Get the $$$ from whoever offers the best deal"??? You betcha. It's inevitable that fan loyalty will diminish over time as well. With a lot fewer millennials interested in sports, the fan base will diminish over time. It's not over yet but I don't think the NCAA has many years left to salvage what we know as college football. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 21 Share Posted March 19, 2022 On 3/19/2022 at 2:01 PM, McDuck said: Roughly akin to letting the CEO's of the 30 member Dow Jones Industrial Average write the anti-trust laws. All the power will be in a few hands to the detriment of us all. Great take. But follow the $ and CFB power is and will continue be in the hands of the B1G and the SEC. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
