Oregon’s Explosive Offense Has Officially Returned

[FishDuck Article]

Dan Lanning made his mission crystal clear from day one. Under his watch, he wants Oregon to have an explosive offense. From his introductory press conference to his comments after the spring game, Lanning has been dead set on generating big plays. But it’s one thing to say that in January. It’s another to actually deliver on gameday. In the ...

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[Viking Duck]

Thanks for the article Joshua. I am looking forward to seeing how stretching the field vertically affects the running game. We might see that the number of rushing yards stays around the same as the last few years, even though there are fewer rushing attempts and more successful passes.

 

Something that more than a few people have been preaching on OBD forum for a while now!

[Haywarduck]

When you swing for the fence, the defense has to move back, creating a larger field of play, thus more open spaces. When the defense knows it only has to defend the line of scrimmage, and usually a couple gaps the game is pretty simple. 

 

I look forward to a more wide open offense and even the occasional explosive mistake. I think our defense will revel in the challenge. I have a feeling Autzen is going to be rocking with the players, fans and coaches dancing more that just at the end of the third quarter, once again. 

 

A bunch of high fiving and thriving will be arriving once this show gets into production. Once again The Oregon Football Program is going to be must watch football. From the Noah Way Defense to the Multi Threat Offense September can't get here soon enough. Release the hounds and lets get this party started.

 

 

[Notalot]

Passing downfield also stretches the defense making the running game potent. The high number of runs between the tackles made the Ducks easier to defend due to predictabilty.

[EastBayDuckDad]

Not not only the run game will benefit. With long fast WRs stretching the field on the deep threat, the safeties have to stay back to support the undersized CBs over the top. The middle zones are then open for the TEs who can usually exploit the LBs. Finally the Ducks will use the TEs as a passing threat and not just as blockers for the run game. I think I saw only one or two really effective pass plays to our TEs last year. More plays like the one against OSU where Matavao was wide open for a TD, please. 

[Mudslide]

Thanks for the fine article (again), Joshua.  I'll say that a wide open game is more fun for the team and players than a grinding game.  And thus...Lanning's approach to fun.

 

I took a quick look at the winning percentages of CK and MC (full seasons only).  Chip's teams won at 87%.  Mario "The Mansion" had his teams...highly rated recruits and all...at 77%.  Don't get me wrong, 77% is not bad...8 million bucks not bad.  (At that, I cringe and mutter words that my mother would not approve.)  But MC must have bored his players to tears.  That gives new meaning to the standard phrase, "grind".

 

Win, lose, or draw, I'm in Coach Lanning's corner.  And I cheer the removal of 'pistol' stench too long in my nostrils

[Charles Fischer]

Joshua, your explanation of the Bill Conerly stat about the success of teams winning more with explosion plays, is not something I have seen anywhere. It is a fantastic, concise, easy to understand explanation as to why we need explosion plays not just for entertainment, but for a higher winning percentage.

 

I don’t know which is more relevant to me, how you found and explained that statistic that backs up my lust for high scoring, or the fact that our current offensive coordinator and head coach “get-it!”

 

Another superb article with great observations. My thanks!

[Drake]

Oregon became boring very fast after Herbert moved on to the NFL. I listened to fans at Autzen booing the play calling on the field. 

 

Our QB will largely determine just how explosive the offense will be this year. From what I have seen we have a few QBs that could be very good players. We seem to have guys that can get it done. 
 

In my opinion, some of the most exiting plays to watch develop are the downfield passes. Watching a receiver break free, the QB anticipating the route as he launches the pass for a clean strike, is football drama at its best. 
 

I look forward to a fresh start for this team. 

[Haywarduck]

I might add a 40 plus yard pass that is intercepted is just a very good punt. I have no problem with a few long ball mistakes, as long as there are also some memorable explosion plays. Maybe the qb's need to be trained to make the long balls more of a jump ball on third and long. With our tall receivers, and the potential for a big play this isn't a bad strategy. Certainly better than the 3 attempt at running up the gut!

 

After a long interception a quick 3 and out by the defense can then be chalked up as a massive gain by the team. I suppose it all comes down to how you look at the risk reward.

 

I look at the risk as an opportunity to turn it into a big gain, either way, something to think about! Explosions on offense and havoc on defense, bring it on!

[OhioDuck]

Great article. Stretching the field vertically and horizontally puts more pressure on the defense to defend more area. Throwing deep and getting speed to the corner, then makes power running more effective. 

 

It's win, win all around. I'm ready!

[Haywarduck]

On 5/4/2022 at 8:43 AM, Mudslide said:

Thanks for the fine article (again), Joshua.  I'll say that a wide open game is more fun for the team and players than a grinding game.  And thus...Lanning's approach to fun.

 

I took a quick look at the winning percentages of CK and MC (full seasons only).  Chip's teams won at 87%.  Mario "The Mansion" had his teams...highly rated recruits and all...at 77%.  Don't get me wrong, 77% is not bad...8 million bucks not bad.  (At that, I cringe and mutter words that my mother would not approve.)  But MC must have bored his players to tears.  That gives new meaning to the standard phrase, "grind".

 

Win, lose, or draw, I'm in Coach Lanning's corner.  And I cheer the removal of 'pistol' stench too long in my nostrils

Context is also needed, CK coached one season against Pete and then Kiffin, while the dawgs had Cutty Sark. Mario coached against Helton at SC and then finished against the mistake on the Lake at the w. 

 

CK was gifted the perfect set up with coaches and inertia, but Mario coached against a dumpster fire of a Pac-12. 

 

Lanning now competes against Riley, and DeBoer, both very capable coaches. He also faces a very strong Utah, and what seems to be some other programs on the rise. We need to have patience with Lanning, and understand the context of his record going forward. 

 

Agree 77% while pounding on a dumpster fire isn't as good as it sounds at first sight. CK also inherited a nice set up. Lanning doesn't have a huge head wind, but he is building a lot on his own. Pistol stench, prevent offense, all in the review mirror, thankfully!

 

Forgot Lanning inherits a schedule where he plays two top ten teams in the first three weeks to start his career. Now that is a head wind he will have to get through. I suppose he is thrown into a dumpster fire while MC just competed against one.

[DUCati855]

On 5/4/2022 at 10:16 AM, Haywarduck said:

Context is also needed, CK coached one season against Pete and then Kiffin, while the dawgs had Cutty Sark. Mario coached against Helton at SC and then finished against the mistake on the Lake at the w. 

 

CK was gifted the perfect set up with coaches and inertia, but Mario coached against a dumpster fire of a Pac-12.

So true! MC won a decent percentage of games. But, that percentage looks much better than it would have against a competitive Pac12. Put him in this league 10-15 years ago he'd be a .500 coach. Albeit a .500 coach who can recruit.

 

I'm so looking forward to points on the board and excitement in the stands. You know..... Oregon football! Go Ducks!!!

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 5/4/2022 at 9:08 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Joshua, your explanation of the Bill Conerly stat about the success of teams winning more with explosion plays, is not something I have seen anywhere. It is a fantastic, concise, easy to understand explanation as to why we need explosion plays not just for entertainment, but for a higher winning percentage.

 

How many long, slow, run-oriented pistol whipped drives have we seen suffer an ignominious demise in or close to the red zone because of penalties over the last couple of years? I agree that while an occasional pick will hurt us and some are in essence long punts, a more explosion oriented offense will on balance win more games and save us from death by a thousand false starts.

[ICamel]

On 5/4/2022 at 9:08 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Joshua, your explanation of the Bill Conerly stat about the success of teams winning more with explosion plays, is not something I have seen anywhere. It is a fantastic, concise, easy to understand explanation as to why we need explosion plays not just for entertainment, but for a higher winning percentage.

If folks haven't read the hyperlinked article in Joshua's well written piece, I would highly encourage it!

College football's 5 most important stats

WWW.FOOTBALLSTUDYHALL.COM

---

Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors most directly correlated to winning...

I also had not seen that information previously and it is highly thought provoking.

 

Kudos to you Mr. Whitted!

[Jon Joseph]

Another gem Joshua, thank you.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/4/2022 at 12:08 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Joshua, your explanation of the Bill Conerly stat about the success of teams winning more with explosion plays, is not something I have seen anywhere. It is a fantastic, concise, easy to understand explanation as to why we need explosion plays not just for entertainment, but for a higher winning percentage.

 

I don’t know which is more relevant to me, how you found and explained that statistic that backs up my lust for high scoring, or the fact that our current offensive coordinator and head coach “get-it!”

 

Another superb article with great observations. My thanks!

Bill Connelly is one of the best and the brightest when it comes to analyzing CFB stats. His SP+ is usually far better at predicting game results than is ESPN's FPI.

 

The human being doing the ESPN preseason rankings, Mark Schlabach, projects Oregon in the top 20. Sorry to say that Connelly's SP+ preseason 2022 rankings have the Ducks at 32. 

 

Puddles will just have to prove this the SP+ ranking is simply wrong.

[David Marsh]

Explosive plays are also super important in being able to keep drives alive. I like how it was brought up in the article that the team with the most exosion plays wins and being able to get explosion plays on a regular basis can offset a pesky penalty. 

 

Do we all remember how many darn false starts Oregon had during the kelly-helfrich era? TONS! But they usually didn't slow the offense down too much because what's five more yards when you rip off an explosion play? 

 

Last year we saw on full display how having an slow and plodding run heavy offense works. If Oregon suffered a penalty or any meaningful setback the drive would pretty assuredly die. 

 

It was boring and frustrating to watch. 

[Lucca0923]

I agree with several of the comments about how stretching the field with long balls opens up the running game, and how an intercepted bomb is basically the equivalent of a punt. (Few interceptions of bombs lead to pick sixes like a short down and out.) But also remember that long balls require the offensive line to block longer which can increase the frequency of either sacks or holding calls, both of which move the team backward. 

[Joshua Whitted]

On 5/4/2022 at 8:07 AM, Viking Duck said:

Thanks for the article Joshua. I am looking forward to seeing how stretching the field vertically affects the running game. We might see that the number of rushing yards stays around the same as the last few years, even though there are fewer rushing attempts and more successful passes.

 

Something that more than a few people have been preaching on OBD forum for a while now!

Absolutely; I think the vertical passing game will give us some much lighter boxes to run in from now on!

[Joshua Whitted]

On 5/4/2022 at 9:38 AM, Haywarduck said:

When you swing for the fence, the defense has to move back, creating a larger field of play, thus more open spaces. When the defense knows it only has to defend the line of scrimmage, and usually a couple gaps the game is pretty simple. 

 

I look forward to a more wide open offense and even the occasional explosive mistake. I think our defense will revel in the challenge. I have a feeling Autzen is going to be rocking with the players, fans and coaches dancing more that just at the end of the third quarter, once again. 

 

A bunch of high fiving and thriving will be arriving once this show gets into production. Once again The Oregon Football Program is going to be must watch football. From the Noah Way Defense to the Multi Threat Offense September can't get here soon enough. Release the hounds and lets get this party started.

 

 

I'm ready to run out on the field after that haha! I love it!

[Joshua Whitted]

On 5/4/2022 at 11:28 AM, EastBayDuckDad said:

Not not only the run game will benefit. With long fast WRs stretching the field on the deep threat, the safeties have to stay back to support the undersized CBs over the top. The middle zones are then open for the TEs who can usually exploit the LBs. Finally the Ducks will use the TEs as a passing threat and not just as blockers for the run game. I think I saw only one or two really effective pass plays to our TEs last year. More plays like the one against OSU where Matavao was wide open for a TD, please. 

Another very good point. So many areas of the offense stand to benefit from vertical shots.

[Joshua Whitted]

On 5/4/2022 at 12:08 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Joshua, your explanation of the Bill Conerly stat about the success of teams winning more with explosion plays, is not something I have seen anywhere. It is a fantastic, concise, easy to understand explanation as to why we need explosion plays not just for entertainment, but for a higher winning percentage.

 

I don’t know which is more relevant to me, how you found and explained that statistic that backs up my lust for high scoring, or the fact that our current offensive coordinator and head coach “get-it!”

 

Another superb article with great observations. My thanks!

Thanks, Charles! I had stumbled upon that article a while back but was quite shocked to see just how important explosive plays are when I circled back to it for my research.

[Joshua Whitted]

On 5/4/2022 at 12:50 PM, Haywarduck said:

I might add a 40 plus yard pass that is intercepted is just a very good punt. I have no problem with a few long ball mistakes, as long as there are also some memorable explosion plays. Maybe the qb's need to be trained to make the long balls more of a jump ball on third and long. With our tall receivers, and the potential for a big play this isn't a bad strategy. Certainly better than the 3 attempt at running up the gut!

 

After a long interception a quick 3 and out by the defense can then be chalked up as a massive gain by the team. I suppose it all comes down to how you look at the risk reward.

 

I look at the risk as an opportunity to turn it into a big gain, either way, something to think about! Explosions on offense and havoc on defense, bring it on!

Also a very good point. Not all turnovers are created equally (field position is another one of those five critical factors Bill Connelly mentions).

[Joshua Whitted]

On 5/4/2022 at 5:52 PM, David Marsh said:

Explosive plays are also super important in being able to keep drives alive. I like how it was brought up in the article that the team with the most exosion plays wins and being able to get explosion plays on a regular basis can offset a pesky penalty. 

 

Do we all remember how many darn false starts Oregon had during the kelly-helfrich era? TONS! But they usually didn't slow the offense down too much because what's five more yards when you rip off an explosion play? 

 

Last year we saw on full display how having an slow and plodding run heavy offense works. If Oregon suffered a penalty or any meaningful setback the drive would pretty assuredly die. 

 

It was boring and frustrating to watch. 

Yeah the penalties are a big, big drive killer. Without much of a passing game last year, they would pretty much spell doom for the offense.

[Joshua Whitted]

On 5/4/2022 at 6:52 PM, Lucca0923 said:

I agree with several of the comments about how stretching the field with long balls opens up the running game, and how an intercepted bomb is basically the equivalent of a punt. (Few interceptions of bombs lead to pick sixes like a short down and out.) But also remember that long balls require the offensive line to block longer which can increase the frequency of either sacks or holding calls, both of which move the team backward. 

This is a good counterpoint for sure. It's all risk/reward.

[Badwater]

 

The spring game was very vanilla. No running game to speak of, and I addressed that. I do think that Dillingham will open things up, but while the passing game will be substantially improved, I don't think it will be the level that everyone seems to be salivating about - to an extent. We really have not seen the Oregon run game yet, and we won't until September. The run game will inform the passing game.