OK, Let's Slow Down and Think This Through...

[Duck Fan 76]

First let me admit that it was shocking that USC and UCLA made this move and panic makes some sense as the initial reaction.

 

That being said however if we slow down and think carefully there are some key points to consider here.  

 

Point 1) The advantage to moving for USC and UCLA is money (TV contracts).

 

The disadvantages are numerous, here are a few:

 

Recruiting athletes willing to fly across the country for a 9AM pst game against really stiff competition for most of their season.  Does that help or hurt a five star athlete for the draft? 

 

Abandoning the history of the Rose Bowl and tying it purely to the BCS system which is very much in flux.

 

USC and UCLA had outsized influence on how the PAC was run.  In the Big-10 they are the new kids and are going to get pushed around by Michigan, OSU and possibly Notre Dame.

 

Point 2) Oregon moving to any other conference could do more harm than good.

 

Some SEC history can make this point.  Schools moving conferences benefited the SEC and not the schools that moved.

 

Point 3) The goal is to put Oregon in the best position to recruit and develop talent.  Considering the current track record does moving conferences help that?

 

 

In my opinion USC and UCLA moving out of the PAC presents an opportunity for Oregon to absolutely dominate southern california recruiting.  That is where Oregon's sense of urgency should be.

 

The PAC has an opportunity to lead instead of following and innovate in how a college football conference operates in a much weaker NCAA. 

 

If the changes help its players to maximize their college opportunity then recruiting will improve and with it the fortunes of the PAC.

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 7/3/2022 at 3:08 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Considering the current track record does moving conferences help that?

Yet USC feels that joining the B1G will help them dominate SoCal recruiting?

 

And the post above is why I love the astute members of this forum...to help us consider all the aspects--many of which we may not have thought of.  Good stuff to ponder...

 

[lownslowav8r]

Here’s hoping this USC/UCLA-Big Ten merger careens off the track, crashes and burns | Jones

WWW.PENNLIVE.COM

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The more I think about it, the more I hope this acquisition engineered by the bloodless weasels at FOX Sports derails and explodes. For what it'll do to the Trojan and Bruin athletes through...

 

[OregonDucks]

On 7/3/2022 at 3:08 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

In my opinion USC and UCLA moving out of the PAC presents an opportunity for Oregon to absolutely dominate southern california recruiting.  That is where Oregon's sense of urgency should be.

 

Overall, I agree with your post, Duck Fan 76. 

 

Below are some of the questions I have re: Southern California recruiting:

 

1)  How important is it for football recruits to play in front of family and friends once a year (note: we heard the same doom and gloom predictions when the Pac-12 split into north and south divisions, and Oregon's recruiting has never been stronger)?  If it's critical, how will this impact USC and UCLA's recruiting in neighboring states (e.g., Arizona)?

 

2)  Are Southern California kids going to want to travel 4-5 hours to play night games in the snow (e.g., Penn State in November)?

 

3)  This now opens the door to Ohio State, Michigan and other B1G schools.  Is this a bigger recruiting battle vs. the current Pac-12 schools? 

 

4) How does USC's recruiting look if they are a mediocre B1G team?

 

Oregon should continue to be fine in recruiting, as long as we keep winning and there is an opportunity to compete for national championships.  Luckily, we have a strong brand and donors with deep pockets who are invested in the program's success. 

 

[Badwater]

This is a passionate, well written article and perspective. Because the perspective is about everything other than money, I don't think his hopes stand a snowball's chances in hell.

[David Marsh]

Super conferences are and will be bad for the majority of programs that have ambitions to compete for national championships. 

 

With five or even six conferences the opportunity to play to NY6 games was reasonable. Win your conference and you're in. 

 

Even lower tier teams could have magical years where they could make a NY6 game. 

 

But let's get real here... The bigger the conference the more big teams you have to go through and beat to make the big games. 

 

Will USC really be able to take down Ohio State regularly enough to be better off than within the PAC? 

 

I'm not sure Oregon would be to be honest... But with the way things are trending if you're not in a super conference you're not making the money to even try. That's the sad truth of it all. 

[McDuck]

On 7/3/2022 at 3:23 PM, lownslowav8r said:

Here’s hoping this USC/UCLA-Big Ten merger careens off the track, crashes and burns | Jones

WWW.PENNLIVE.COM

---

The more I think about it, the more I hope this acquisition engineered by the bloodless weasels at FOX Sports derails and explodes. For what it'll do to the Trojan and Bruin athletes through...

 

Good read, thanks for the link.

[Log Haulin]

In the Pac12, USC struggled to get to a bowl game. They haven't been competitive in 2 decades. What makes the B?G think USC is a golden ticket. Just a ploy to suck ND into the B?G. After ND joins, the scarlet carpet will be pulled out from under USC. 

 

Riley has proven nothing yet. He has 2 years to show USC is the cream of the west coast. Right now, they are not. USC will be Wisconsin 2.0. But that is still better than what they have been able to accomplish in the Pac for years.

[Duck4life]

yet in the new era of super conferences and expanded playoffs, most assuredly B1G will get more than one seat in the playoffs.

The question "can USC be number two?"...hmmm?

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

On 7/3/2022 at 3:08 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

In my opinion USC and UCLA moving out of the PAC presents an opportunity for Oregon to absolutely dominate southern california recruiting. 

It’s an interesting point I was pondering myself, seeing Oregon in the eyes of now being a Clemson West.

 

Be Dominant in a weaker conference. 
 

We may just stand pat at 10, dominate, and be just fine.

Go undefeated and just win. The money will always come in when you dominate.

 

Play the SEC way, and switch to 8 conference games, 4 out of conference with a patsy on week 10 or 11 to rest some guys. 
 

Make NIL millionaires, but put the kids in financial programs to teach investing and money management including family educational outreach for help dealing with agents business deals and hanger ons. Make Oregon players the wealthiest most business savvy college football players in the nation. 
 

Sell the Ducks as the program that can get you to the NFL and get rich before you get there and stay rich after. 
 

Out recruit, out coach, keep winning and Dominate while the Big too many conference struggles to have undefeated teams at the end of the season. 

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

On 7/3/2022 at 5:21 PM, Log Haulin said:

In the Pac12, USC struggled to get to a bowl game. They haven't been competitive in 2 decades. What makes the B?G think USC is a golden ticket. Just a ploy to suck ND into the B?G. After ND joins, the scarlet carpet will be pulled out from under USC. 

 

Riley has proven nothing yet. He has 2 years to show USC is the cream of the west coast. Right now, they are not. USC will be Wisconsin 2.0. But that is still better than what they have been able to accomplish in the Pac for years.

Dumping two new high powered offenses into the defensive run oriented big too many conference should produce some bitter losses to the top teams. More risk than reward. 

[Log Haulin]

tOSU, Mich, Penn St, ND(?), Wisky and UCLA. That is a steep mountain to climb. Say the Pac and Big 12 combine to make a super conference. Add in SEC (2 spots right there) and the ACC. Then Cinderella shows up to the dance like Cincinnati did last year. Thats Everest.

 

Would Oregon be better off in a Pac/Big 12 super conference. I think it might, not positive, give Oregon a better shot than joining the B?G. Ducks would definitely be the big man on campus over time.

 

Glad I am not the comish or AD at a Pac 12 school. Yikes!

[Nautique Duck]

My worry is we are all assuming status quo or improved playoff situation. It could go the other way, too. They may have sec and B1G have guaranteed spots (or two) but make ACC, pac 10 and big 12 have to fight for the other 2 with any cincinatis as second tier citizens. If they have all the money, they are going to make the rules in a revised playoff. 

[NJDuck]

On 7/4/2022 at 2:53 AM, Nautique Duck said:

My worry is we are all assuming status quo or improved playoff situation. It could go the other way, too. They may have sec and B1G have guaranteed spots (or two) but make ACC, pac 10 and big 12 have to fight for the other 2 with any cincinatis as second tier citizens. If they have all the money, they are going to make the rules in a revised playoff

I know I posted this on a different thread on here, but worth reading from Dan Wetzel at Yahoo Sports.  The way things are trending and what is happening in conference realignment, He stated the other conference could be relegated to group of 5 status when it comes to the playoffs.  Whether he is right or not, it's concerning.

 

Maybe a PAC/Big12 combo, it all depends where Oregon and Washington lands, could change what he is saying.  I have to say it would be great if the ACC/PAC/Big12 could combine with the best schools in each conference would make a third super conference with clout.  But, to make that happen would be very difficult to accomplish if at all.

 

Pac-12, ACC had chance to save themselves. Instead, it was an all-time botch job.

SPORTS.YAHOO.COM

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Just like that the Pac-12 and ACC moved closer to the AAC and Mountain West than the Big Ten and SEC. And they can't blame anybody but themselves.

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by NJDuck

[Nevada Dawg]

On 7/3/2022 at 6:24 PM, Log Haulin said:

Would Oregon be better off in a Pac/Big 12 super conference. I think it might, not positive, give Oregon a better shot than joining the B?G. Ducks would definitely be the big man on campus over time.

 

Glad I am not the comish or AD at a Pac 12 school. Yikes!

 

Were I a Duck fan first and foremost I would prefer playing in a merge with the Big-12 to the B1G (which I think is  overrated in both football and basketball. Whomever wins the championship of such a conference is definitely going to the playoffs and, in a 12 team playoff, the runner-up likely goes as well. 

 

 

[Duck Fan 76]

The more I read about the situation and the more I think about the situation the less convinced I am that joining the Big10 is a good idea.

 

I've been a Ducks fan since I was a kid, back when it was a great season if we became bowl eligible.  

 

I spent 20 years in the military traveling the planet, working miracles to watch Oregon football with the absolute worst media contract imaginable.

 

Oregon currently generates about half the revenue of the Big10 schools for broadcasts due to the incompetence of the PAC's leadership.

 

In the short run that hasn't damaged us because of Phil Knight.  He makes Oregon one of the best funded football programs in the country.

 

My travel experience however showed me there are Oregon football fans EVERYWHERE! 

 

I had friends who played football at Clemson who loved watching the Ducks. 

 

The best quote was a friend that said watching Oregon play was like watching the old Florida St games. They were just amazing to watch.

 

What I think that means is that the key for Oregon is to play exciting football in a way that keeps our players healthy, hungry and happy.

 

I think a smaller PAC-10 with even fewer conference games is the solution.

 

The new conference championship takes the top two rated teams so the head to heads don't matter like they used to.

 

If Oregon (and the rest of the PAC) mix their non-conference games throughout the season instead of front loading them we can maximize the value of long travel games and put short travel rest games in between.

 

If you have to fly the team to the east coast to play an away game should it be Rutgers at 7PM EST or Clemson at Noon?

 

My point is that going into Ohio State and winning was not only a ratings win, that game won us long term Oregon fans outside of the state.  

 

Oregon playing Georgia is going to be a HUGE ratings draw and if we play well in that game recruits in the SEC will notice and consider Oregon as a potential commit (like they do now).

 

I believe Oregon can do what Clemson has done but do it even better.  Instead of 1 good game and the rest are puffs Oregon should negotiate a few great primetime matchups in other media markets.

 

Essentially build Oregon as a national brand focused on exciting prime time football on Fox AND ESPN.

 

It's what ND tried to do but couldn't actually win the games.  

 

Right now the PAC needs Oregon and that gives Oregon power in the upcoming media negotiations. 

 

We can tell the PAC how many conference games we are willing to play. 

 

We can tell the PAC we are keeping the whole share of away non-conference games and we schedule those ourselves.

 

We can keep the civil war and the Washington rivalry.

 

We can be the PACs automatic bid almost every year to play in the Rose Bowl (assuming that we can keep that one tradition locked in).

 

We can schedule USC every year and embarrass them at home, run up the score, have puddles tackle the trojan on game day and deliver a NW beat down.

 

We can be in control of Oregon football destiny and make sure Oregon gets asked if "so and so" is okay as the new commissioner.

 

We can be USC but actually good at it.

[1Ducker1]

On 7/4/2022 at 3:10 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

The more I read about the situation and the more I think about the situation the less convinced I am that joining the Big10 is a good idea.

 

I've been a Ducks fan since I was a kid, back when it was a great season if we became bowl eligible.  

 

I spent 20 years in the military traveling the planet, working miracles to watch Oregon football with the absolute worst media contract imaginable.

 

Oregon currently generates about half the revenue of the Big10 schools for broadcasts due to the incompetence of the PAC's leadership.

 

In the short run that hasn't damaged us because of Phil Knight.  He makes Oregon one of the best funded football programs in the country.

 

My travel experience however showed me there are Oregon football fans EVERYWHERE! 

 

I had friends who played football at Clemson who loved watching the Ducks. 

 

The best quote was a friend that said watching Oregon play was like watching the old Florida St games. They were just amazing to watch.

 

What I think that means is that the key for Oregon is to play exciting football in a way that keeps our players healthy, hungry and happy.

 

I think a smaller PAC-10 with even fewer conference games is the solution.

 

The new conference championship takes the top two rated teams so the head to heads don't matter like they used to.

 

If Oregon (and the rest of the PAC) mix their non-conference games throughout the season instead of front loading them we can maximize the value of long travel games and put short travel rest games in between.

 

If you have to fly the team to the east coast to play an away game should it be Rutgers at 7PM EST or Clemson at Noon?

 

My point is that going into Ohio State and winning was not only a ratings win, that game won us long term Oregon fans outside of the state.  

 

Oregon playing Georgia is going to be a HUGE ratings draw and if we play well in that game recruits in the SEC will notice and consider Oregon as a potential commit (like they do now).

 

I believe Oregon can do what Clemson has done but do it even better.  Instead of 1 good game and the rest are puffs Oregon should negotiate a few great primetime matchups in other media markets.

 

Essentially build Oregon as a national brand focused on exciting prime time football on Fox AND ESPN.

 

It's what ND tried to do but couldn't actually win the games.  

 

Right now the PAC needs Oregon and that gives Oregon power in the upcoming media negotiations. 

 

We can tell the PAC how many conference games we are willing to play. 

 

We can tell the PAC we are keeping the whole share of away non-conference games and we schedule those ourselves.

 

We can keep the civil war and the Washington rivalry.

 

We can be the PACs automatic bid almost every year to play in the Rose Bowl (assuming that we can keep that one tradition locked in).

 

We can schedule USC every year and embarrass them at home, run up the score, have puddles tackle the trojan on game day and deliver a NW beat down.

 

We can be in control of Oregon football destiny and make sure Oregon gets asked if "so and so" is okay as the new commissioner.

 

We can be USC but actually good at it.

I agree a lot with what you are saying but as I look at things as a whole Im thinking a B12 and PAC merger could benefit the Ducks as long as they keep a Pac division and create 3 other divisions with 3 out of division games. Last year for example Oregon could have benefited by playing Cincinnati or Baylor-If they won that is. This kind of situation would work wonders for strength of schedule. 

[Duck Fan 76]

On 7/4/2022 at 4:02 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

Im thinking a B12 and PAC merger could benefit the Ducks as long as they keep a Pac division

It's definitely an interesting point and I think it's better than the BIG10 option.

 

My concern is that things are changing so fast in college football and stability is a ways off and I can't predict what that future will look like.

 

I know Oregon got hosed by really bad PAC decisions that sourced from the LA think tanks/echo chambers.

 

I guess I trust the thinking at Nike headquarters more than the Big 10 or 12.  

 

So I see value in Oregon keeping maximum control for the foreseeable future and using the Nike connection to help it make smart branding decisions.

 

Cause marketing is what Nike does!

 

 

[1Ducker1]

Only time will tell but I especially have faith in PK -that guy has put a lot into the Ducks and he KNOWS business. I sure would like to know what's going on in his mind right about now!!!

[EastBayDuckDad]

Playing the devil's advocate, Oregon could more than hold it's own in rhe B1G and prosper there. Didn't the Ducks just put a beat down on tOSU in the 'Shoe? Didn't our new head coach just throttle the Michigan offense as Georgia's DC in the NC semis. Those two teams were hands down the best the B1G had to throw at the rest of college football last year. Yeah, traveling to Ice Capades land for November away games isn't all that appealing, but think of the fun of having Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin or tOSU in our house. Thise last three teams might feel.like they owe us some payback. Autzen would be rockin'.

[1Ducker1]

On 7/4/2022 at 4:38 PM, EastBayDuckDad said:

Playing the devil's advocate, Oregon could more than hold it's own in rhe B1G and prosper there. Didn't the Ducks just put a beat down on tOSU in the 'Shoe? Didn't our new head coach just throttle the Michigan offense as Georgia's DC in the NC semis. Those two teams were hands down the best the B1G had to throw at the rest of college football last year. Yeah, traveling to Ice Capades land for November away games isn't all that appealing, but think of the fun of having Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin or tOSU in our house. Thise last three teams might feel.like they owe us some payback. Autzen would be rockin'.

My worry is how many of those schools want to come all the way out to Autzen? And they will expect much more $$$ than we would get from traveling back into those parts.

[Duck Fan 76]

On 7/4/2022 at 4:38 PM, EastBayDuckDad said:

Oregon could more than hold it's own in rhe B1G and prosper there

I agree with you, Oregon can play well in the Big10, Big12 or even the SEC given time.

 

My point is closer to what Cowherd was saying regarding football schedules in general. 

 

E.g. that Oregon could best maximize our national brand by controlling more of our own schedule and getting more of those must see matchups during primetime.

 

Nothing against the Beavers or Cougars but those games are watchable for us die hards and that's about it.

 

The counter balance is that it's actually dangerous to our players to have every weekend be the crucible.

 

If the program is able to maximize the brand, NIL will flow.

 

If the program can develop talent and keep players healthy, NFL drafts will happen.

 

If drafts and NIL are healthy recruiting is healthy and we are on a self righting ship.

 

I agree that we can do well in the BIG? but I think we can potentially explode if Oregon isn't overly tethered to the self important programs that can't stop talking about leather helmets and NFL legends that collect social security.  (Much love to USC).

 

 

[Duck Fan 76]

On 7/4/2022 at 4:45 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

My worry is how many of those schools want to come all the way out to Autzen? And they will expect much more $$$ than we would get from traveling back into those parts.

True, we are facing "neutral sites" and inequitable payoffs.  What we loose there we makeup in merchandise in a much larger market.

 

The goal isn't short term cash as much as take lesser gains now and build the brand inside of their market share.

 

Think Pepsi 1970s.  They had to loose revenue to eat into Coke markets.  

 

 

[1Ducker1]

On 7/4/2022 at 5:04 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

True, we are facing "neutral sites" and inequitable payoffs.  What we loose there we makeup in merchandise in a much larger market.

 

The goal isn't short term cash as much as take lesser gains now and build the brand inside of their market share.

 

Think Pepsi 1970s.  They had to loose revenue to eat into Coke markets.  

 

 

As Long as we win 90% of our games otherwise not so good.

[1Ducker1]

I guess what Im saying is that a complete merger with the B12 with 4 divisions keeping a PAC division will be the shortest way to get ta NCG.

2nd and 3rd place teams dont do as well on the merchandising aspect of things.

[Duck Fan 76]

This  is what I'm talking about with regard to the LA echo chamber.  

 

I lived 10 years in Ohio and if you walk into a sports bar on Saturday everyone is obviously watching Ohio State games.

 

If that game is over and Oregon is being broadcast on one of the 10 TVs (rare enough unfortunately), people are watching Oregon.

 

I see Duck Jersey's in Texas, Florida, DC.  They are everywhere, everywhere...