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Charles Fischer

Yikes! A MAJOR New Fracture in the Pac-12, and Oregon is the Problem?

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If Oregon/Washington are going to be locked into a conference with no flexibility if things change later....yeah, we should get more.  That is why we would leave?

 

Keep in mind that ESPN cannot possibly give a good opening offer, as Oregon then goes to the Streaming services and other networks for competing bids?  ESPN will then increase their offer based on competitors, thus these negotiations could go on for a long time.  

 

Are the Ducks and Huskies staking out their points now a smart thing?  I think so...  And it sounds like we have someone playing hardball with George K.; good!

 

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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The schools fighting hardest to keep the Ducks and dogs happy have to be Wazzu and the Beavs as they are for sure getting left behind in any defections to the B12.   Probably the Bay Area schools too.  
 

The challenge is that the Ducks and dogs are a little short on leverage (unless a four corner defection won’t yield those schools better $$) because, again, if nobody other than the B12 wants to take them, implosion of the PAC forces them to join the B12

 

So, the four schools can tell Oregon and UW that any deal is equal revenue splits, long term GOR (6 years, say), and massive exit fees.  Take it or leave it because nobody’s riding to your rescue and you would die if you don’t join a conference 

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Most of the talk going around is about posturing and nothing to do with reality. The Ducks, because of Uncle Phil, will be relevant as long as he wants them to be. The college football world still needs a footprint in the northwest and as much as I hate to say it we still need the buttlickers to come back to relevance as soon as next week.

 

 We could go it alone but probably not a smart move. UCLA may not be going anywhere and probably can only win games in the pack. So the tv audience that they would take with them would fall apart. At best.  

 

 Lanning and the coaching and our athletes, weather it be football or tiddlywinks deserve our energy. 

 

 Not the media.

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This is going to end badly. It's all power and greed with no regard for college football itself with its traditions, millions of fans and most importantly what was once known as the student athlete. 

By the time these clowns are done college football will be relegated to the status of "NFL Minor League". A couple dozen high powered programs will totally dominate the college football landscape and I fear Oregon won't be one of them....and meanwhile the arrogance of the SEC and the BIG10 is annoying to say the least.

So, my dream scenario: Uncle Phil goes mid-evil and buys ESPN. He immediately voids the ACC TV contract after the 2024' season....in a fit of financial irrationality he personally picks 20 teams from the Pac 12, ACC and Big 12 and offers them up admission into a third power conference under an exclusive ESPN five year TV contract guaranteeing each school an annual payout of 150 million.

Of the 150 million 50 million must be directed toward the NIL program which would rocket each schools recruiting. The balance goes to the school and its sports programs....and the new conference will be open to discussions regarding a 16 team playoff...wonder if that would get the attention of the BIG10 and the SEC?

A guy can dream can't he? (Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Utah, maybe San Diego State, Miami, Florida State, Clemson, UNC, Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma State....).

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Again, this could be just spin to get hits. I don't know who Jason Sheer is or if he is an insider. So is his info, with no names listed for support, better than say WSU President Kirk Shulz?

 

Yesterday the Spokesman Review published an article with a conversation with President Shulz and Shulz asked the Cougar boosters and fans to be patient. These negotiations and future plans take time to explore and develope. But they were moving in a positive direction.

 

The 10 conference members were sticking together and that the network partners were excited about the future of the PAC and the west coast sports content the PAC provides.

 

He was confident that revenues to each of the remaining 10 schools would be substantially higher. And there was no reason to leave the PAC if the money was there.

(Thats a sound business practice)

 

This supports what Wilner and Canzano have been publishing. Time and patience are on the PAC's side. Their is no hurry on any of this. A great deal can change in 1 hour, i day, i week, 1 month or 1 year.

 

Sculz, when asked about possible expansion mentioned that the conference is exploring many avenues. Listening and exploring but waiting.

 

IMHO,  the WSU President carries much more credibility than an unsupported tweet. These clowns should state the who, what, when and where's with NAMES. Instead of blowing smoke.

 

FACT: The networks need West Coast viewing for sports.

FACT: ESPN lost the #2 market to Fox.

FACT: The PAC has what ESPN cannot afford to lose. Any more West Coast Content......

 

WSU President Schulz is right. Just stay calm and be patient.

 

Whos got more credibility President Shulz or Jason Sheer? Who's sitting at the table or guessing what's being said at the table?

 

My Dad used to always tell me that good things come to those who wait.

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On 7/24/2022 at 5:40 PM, Just Ducky said:

UCLA may not be going anywhere and probably can only win games in the pack

UCLA is definitely leaving, and good for them. If Oregon were approached about bailing with USC to the B1G, you'd better believe we would bolt in a split second. The California Regents are peons in the grand scheme of things. Also, UCLA Football is better now, and has a much brighter future than Nebraska, Purdue, Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Rutgers. They probably have a better future ahead of them than Iowa as well. 

 

If Oregon were invited to the B1G soon, I'd say the top-5 would be 1) Ohio St. 2) Oregon 3) USC 4) Michigan 5) Penn St.

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I would imagine at the moment ESPN with their exclusive bidding rights (with fox but fox is sitting out from the sound of it) would take the opportunity to low ball just a bit at the moment. 

 

The bigger question comes after the first thirty days and if GK can leverage in streaming companies to push ESPN to a better deal. 

 

Negotiations are funny things ... They take a lot of time and posturing but when you get right on down it they don't really take shape until the clock almost reaches zero. 

 

Right now ESPN has loads of clock and no pressure. What we need to wait for is when does the pressure mount because there isn't as much clock yet. 

 

Basically it's a tie game right now and everyone is happy to punt. Just wait until there are two minutes left and someone needs to drive the field. 

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On 7/24/2022 at 7:30 PM, David Marsh said:

Right now ESPN has loads of clock and no pressure.

I believe that is very true until other offers come in to the Pac-12?  Then the conference can set a deadline to wrap this up with all the offers.

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 7/24/2022 at 7:30 PM, David Marsh said:

I would imagine at the moment ESPN with their exclusive bidding rights (with fox but fox is sitting out from the sound of it) would take the opportunity to low ball just a bit at the moment. 

 

The bigger question comes after the first thirty days and if GK can leverage in streaming companies to push ESPN to a better deal. 

 

Negotiations are funny things ... They take a lot of time and posturing but when you get right on down it they don't really take shape until the clock almost reaches zero. 

 

Right now ESPN has loads of clock and no pressure. What we need to wait for is when does the pressure mount because there isn't as much clock yet. 

 

Basically it's a tie game right now and everyone is happy to punt. Just wait until there are two minutes left and someone needs to drive the field. 

Couldn't have said it better.  We need to wait until 2024 before signing a deal (us and the Fuskies particularly).  

 

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Oregon needs to do everything it can to not get locked into any deal without getting to see what options are available with the B1G and SEC.  If that means making unreasonable demands about revenue sharing, so be it.

 

The Pac is trying to lock in a deal similar to what the ACC did.  Not because it's a good deal, but because it all but guarantees no more defections for the next decade.  Oregon has value and although certain media outlets have tried to portray a different story, I remember someone just posted an article on here a few days/weeks ago showing that they rank 7 nationally for TV audience. 

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On 7/24/2022 at 10:11 PM, 2002duck said:

UCLA is definitely leaving, and good for them. If Oregon were approached about bailing with USC to the B1G, you'd better believe we would bolt in a split second. The California Regents are peons in the grand scheme of things. Also, UCLA Football is better now, and has a much brighter future than Nebraska, Purdue, Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Rutgers. They probably have a better future ahead of them than Iowa as well. 

 

If Oregon were invited to the B1G soon, I'd say the top-5 would be 1) Ohio St. 2) Oregon 3) USC 4) Michigan 5) Penn St.

Agree with everything except I would put Wisconsin and Penn St tied for 5th.

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On 7/24/2022 at 7:11 PM, 2002duck said:

UCLA is definitely leaving, and good for them. If Oregon were approached about bailing with USC to the B1G, you'd better believe we would bolt in a split second. The California Regents are peons in the grand scheme of things. Also, UCLA Football is better now, and has a much brighter future than Nebraska, Purdue, Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Rutgers. They probably have a better future ahead of them than Iowa as well. 

 

If Oregon were invited to the B1G soon, I'd say the top-5 would be 1) Ohio St. 2) Oregon 3) USC 4) Michigan 5) Penn St.

 

 

With Lanning I can see that possibility.  With Mario, we would have been 7th or 8th at best

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There are many games of chicken going on, some outside the circle and some within.

I currently agree with the sentiment that Oregon has the most options of the PAC, and knows it can wait.

 

“Sources” saying over the weekend that the 4 Corner schools applied to Big12 is another game of chicken to force UO (and likely UW) to sign on now and long term, to not allow the potential B1G decisions either when Notre Dame decides or in 2024. They are trying to imply UO is left with the Pac6 and thus likely Mountain West mergers.

 

But, coupled with the knowledge that the Big12 is not interested in a mass merger with PAC due to the $ not panning out and the measly TV viewership of those 4 Corner schools, it is an easy call of their bluff.

 

In Pac12 TV viewership ratings the last 5 years: Zona, ASU, Colorado, and Utah were rated 11, 9, 8, 7.  And Big12 will get the Salt Lake Market anyway when BYU joins.  No way they just accept those 4 schools without UO. The $ math does not work.

 

So, UO and UW can play the card that the 2 prior commishes ignored…fair share (unequal) of the worth brought to the conference.  It’s why USC and UCLA left and the other PAC schools cannot ignore it.

if UO gets the cut they want at low contract year length, great.  If not,  wait for other options whether it is B1G or other…

 

 

Edited by AllOregon
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I read that Colorado considers the B12 a 'Juco- League'. Ha ha. If true puts a stick of dynamite in them leaving to the B12.

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Scheer is a beat writer for UA.  He is very vocal on Twitter about UA basketball.  Not sure how he is getting his info but would guess he has some inside sources.

 

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CU can look down their noses at the Big 12 all they want but they likely do so to their detriment.  The Pac 12 is a sinking ship, due to a variety of factors and sooner or later some of the programs are going to get discontent with unequal revenue sharing.  

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