Is 12-Team CFB Playoff Format Too Much or Just Right?

[Pennsylvania Duck]

I ran across this short video while searching for articles for OBDF today and it had me thinking.

Is the 12-team playoff format too much? No one really talks about it as it seems to be a done deal.

There are interesting points brought out by the commentators:

          •    If you were a play-in team, you would play an additional 4 games to reach the Championship. That is 1/4 of your regular season.

               In Oregon’s case, counting the Conference Championship, there is potential of a 17-game season!

          •    Is that too much to ask of players, risking injury to their careers?

          •    There is big money involved, should players get some access?

          •    Or should alternatives of 8 or 12-game playoffs be considered?
 

Watch the video and see what you think?

 

College Football Playoff expansion: Are 12 teams too many or just enough?

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This is what  a 12-team play-off format using today's rankings would look like for discussion purposes:

 

[David Marsh]

I think if we are looking at an expanded playoff then we may have to look at changing the whole season. 

 

Reduce the regular season games from 12 to maybe 10? Add in some interesting end of season match ups. 

 

The problem with my proposal is that players just might opt out earlier. 

 

Granted we are getting to the point with opt outs that it feels more and more like a why bother playing at all once you've been declared a sure thing at the next level but we can leave that conversation for another time. 

[Smith72]

I agree that a reduction of games would be needed with the expanded playoffs.  12 to 10 sounds good.  Eliminate one conference game (playing 8), and eliminate one out of conference.

 

In addition, pay the players for their participation in the playoffs.  A lot of tv money to be split for the players.  They do the work, run the risk,  and provide the entertainment.

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/25/2022 at 6:06 PM, David Marsh said:

Reduce the regular season games from 12 to maybe 10?

That would destroy the athletic budgets at most universities.  They need those games to pay for all the other sports.  The only teams affected by the additional games are less than 5% of the total NCAA schools beyond one extra game, and they are going to be paid handsomely for being there.

 

Part of the winning effort--having depth.  Don't penalize 95% when the 5% are going to clean up financially....IMHO at first blush.

[woundedknees]

Personally, I have thought all along that an 8 team playoff would be more appropriate at the college level.

 

Conference Title Games may need to become a part of history, to streamline the # of games invitees participate during the season.

 

The potential for serious injury as the season wears on becomes considerably more likely, the longer the process take.

 

I have no doubt mine is not a majority position in the debate.

[Pocketchange]

8 team playoff and if you have two teams in the same conference then they have to play each other in the quarter finals.  No byes.

[Steven A]

I prefer 8, no byes.

 

Byes are a two-edge sword.

 

The team that gets one is fresher, the team that doesn't, has had a shorter layoff and is more battle tested.

 

How much time lapses from the end of the regular season to the first playoff?

 

It is like the beginning of the season when a team that played in week zero has an advantage over a team they play in week one that hasn't played yet.

 

The opting out factor will probably be lessened as the lure of a Natty (thanks Cliff for your stamp on college football) since that is the reason these athlete students "play the game" (thanks Herb)

 

herb+edwards+"just+play+the+game" - Bing video

WWW.BING.COM

 

[Kurt Rambis]

I prefer 8.  Do we really feel like the #11 or #12 teams in the field deserve to be there just as much as #1 or #2?  Frankly, most years it's hard to see real worth in teams below the top 6.  There's usually an obvious top two or three, then another two or three who probably are all deserving of spots 3 and 4.  Once we get down into two-loss teams, which is probably inevitable when we're talking a 12-team playoff, I don't think they deserve a shot.  They lost that privilege by losing two games.  

 

And 12 teams won't solve the problem of "deserving" teams being left out - we could go to 30 teams and #31 would gripe and moan that they deserved that last spot over #30.  We're at what - 68? - in March Madness and every year we hear some 19 - 15 team yelling about how they deserve to be there too.  

 

12 extends the season too much and lets in good teams rather than great teams.  

[debbieduck]

Needs to be 8.   So nobody gets a bye week. 
 

All power 5 conferences champion go regardless of record.  Leaving 3 at large 

 

SEC - 2 teams 

BIG - 2 teams 

PAC 12 -1 team 

ACC -1 team 

Big 12 -1 team 

1 best of the rest team 

Edited October 26, 2022 by debbieduck

[noDucknewby]

Personally I think 8 would be about right except for one thing--the SEC will never allow automatic qualifiers with an 8-team playoff.  An 8-team playoff of "the best teams" just turns into more of a ridiculous beauty contest than the CFP is now. 

 

The SEC goal is continued domination of the CFP, so they're willing to allow AQs as long as there are enough slots left for them to pad with more SEC teams.  The B1G has newfound wealth and consequent power so this benefits them too.  

 

The proposed 12-team structure is about as good as we're going to get IMHO, but I don't see how we don't get to 16 not too far down the road.  That's a lot of games, so there's still plenty of logistical hurdles and if they can't figure out a way to give draftable players enough financial incentive to stick around for another month it just turns into a series of exhibition games.

 

My cynicism aside, the current CFP is merely BCS.2 so any expansion would be at least some improvement, and anything that gives us more access is certainly a step in the right direction.

 

 

[Just Ducky]

 2 preseason games. Basically practice games.

 

 8 conference games.

 

 1 bye week

 

 No championship games.

 

 2 week bye before start of playoffs.

 

 8 playoff teams all teams play first week, better for the players, better for traveling fans.

 

 Playing more games against better teams leads to more injuries and ruined careers.

[Charles Fischer]

We will be hosed at eight--guaranteed.  They will not assure conference champions, so we will be on the outside at eight, IMHO.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Yes, in an 8 team format, the SEC would not sign off on automatic qualifiers for conferemce champions.

 

IMHO, this is about money. No schools can afford less games that equal less revenue.  4 games being played around mid-december would not be any problem for the regular season schedule. 4 teams eliminated. And those 4 winners will have at least 2 weeks to prepare for the next round. The 4 teams with a bye will have 3 or 4 weeks to gather eust. If anything the Natty will be played mid January.

 

These game payouts will probably exceed $15 million for each team, win or lose. Imagine playing in 3 or 4 games to win a natty. The money may be greater than you receive for the season.

 

Even if the powers that be ( SEC BIG) want the first 2 rounds completed in 2 successive weeks so the semis are played around New Years Day, well so be it. The money is simply to good to pass up.

[GODUCKS15]

With SC and UCLA gone the P12 is the P10. That means unless they add 2 teams it will be an 8 conf-4 OOC season. If Oregon plays like it's

 

playing this season then they will be ranked in the top 8. The SOS might look weak but going unbeaten sure seems much easier.

 

Would the CFP take a P10 no loss team? To add to that who would be added to the P10 conference that would pose a major threat year in year out? 

 

I see Oregon in the CFP every year even with an 8 game format. 

 

[McDuck]

I realize we are speeding towards a semi-pro situation but doesn't consideration need to given to the academic calendar?  Most schools end classes early December with finals the following week.  Classes resume roughly 7-10 days into January.  Assuming finals week and the first week of classes are not optimal for playoff games doesn't that limit the playoff window?

[Tandaian]

FCS has 24 teams make the playoffs, champions North Dakota State played 16 games.  Division 2 has 28 teams make the playoffs, champions Ferris State played 14 games.  Division 3 has 32 teams make the playoffs, champions Mary Hardin-Baylor played 15 games.

 

12 teams is the correct amount because they are throwing the G5 group a bone with giving them an automatic bid.  With 8 teams, they aren't only going to give 2 at large teams to P5 schools.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Here's how I understand the options.

4 teams = 2 SEC + BIG + whatever

8 Teams = 3 SEC + 2 BIG + whatever

12 Teams = 4 SEC + 3 BIG + 3 other conference Champs + whatever

[Tandaian]

Why fans of No. 8 Oregon shouldn't float idea of Ducks in CFP

WWW.YARDBARKER.COM

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The No. 8 Oregon Ducks look the part of a potential Pac-12 champion following their 45-30 win over No. 12 UCLA. At 6-1, the Ducks would be among the teams hotly debated in College...

 

[noDucknewby]

On 10/26/2022 at 9:35 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Here's how I understand the options.

4 teams = 2 SEC + BIG + whatever

8 Teams = 3 SEC + 2 BIG + whatever

12 Teams = 4 SEC + 3 BIG + 3 other conference Champs + whatever

Agree, no matter what scenario the SEC/B1G get over half the slots.  Throw in ND any time they have a decent season, Clemson as a perennial contender and the Big-12 Champ going forward and that doesn't leave much left.  We need AQ status to have consistent access and that only happens with 12 (or more) teams.

[Tandaian]

They have mentioned with 12 teams, the top 6 ranked conference champions will get an auto bid.  I don't believe a P5 conference champion has ever been ranked below 2 G5 conference champions, so the Pac 12, Big 12 and ACC will never miss out on at least 1 bid.

 

I'm not going to give the SEC and B1G always 3 or 4 teams.  Right now the Pac 12 has 3 teams with Oregon #8, USC #10 and UCLA #12.  B1G TEN only has #2 and #4 and will not have another top 12 team this year.  Big 12 and ACC both have 2 teams in the top 12.

 

Don't forget, there are usually only 1 maybe 2 CFP voters from 1 conference.  The rest of the conferences aren't going to just hand over hundreds of millions of dollars to the B1G and SEC.

[noDucknewby]

On 10/26/2022 at 10:09 AM, Tandaian said:

They have mentioned with 12 teams, the top 6 ranked conference champions will get an auto bid.  I don't believe a P5 conference champion has ever been ranked below 2 G5 conference champions, so the Pac 12, Big 12 and ACC will never miss out on at least 1 bid.

 

I'm not going to give the SEC and B1G always 3 or 4 teams.  Right now the Pac 12 has 3 teams with Oregon #8, USC #10 and UCLA #12.  B1G TEN only has #2 and #4 and will not have another top 12 team this year.  Big 12 and ACC both have 2 teams in the top 12.

 

Don't forget, there are usually only 1 maybe 2 CFP voters from 1 conference.  The rest of the conferences aren't going to just hand over hundreds of millions of dollars to the B1G and SEC.

Well I certainly hope you're right and this year's CFP selection committee looks reasonably balanced and diverse:  

2022-23 Selection Committee Roster

COLLEGEFOOTBALLPLAYOFF.COM

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The official 2022-23 Selection Committee Roster for the College Football Playoff

 

 

That said, historically the makeup of the CFP hasn't been much different and they still have been biased towards the SEC, Clemson and the B!G.

[Tandaian]

I feel it biased as a little as well, but when the Pac 12 champion went 12-1, they made the playoffs both times.  I have felt the CFP has done a great job picking the 4 teams.  It just happens the SEC have had multiple teams only lose 1 game.

 

The media and talking heads don't mention it, but when you have 14 teams and only play 8 conference games it is very easy to have 2 teams go undefeated in conference play and another 2 teams only have 1 loss.  When the B1G and SEC go to 16 teams, it will make it even worse.  They will have a perceived strength when in reality, they have a schedule quirk.

 

The Big 12 currently make it impossible to have more than 1 undefeated team.  

[noDucknewby]

On 10/26/2022 at 10:45 AM, Tandaian said:

I feel it biased as a little as well, but when the Pac 12 champion went 12-1, they made the playoffs both times.  I have felt the CFP has done a great job picking the 4 teams.  It just happens the SEC have had multiple teams only lose 1 game.

 

The media and talking heads don't mention it, but when you have 14 teams and only play 8 conference games it is very easy to have 2 teams go undefeated in conference play and another 2 teams only have 1 loss.  When the B1G and SEC go to 16 teams, it will make it even worse.  They will have a perceived strength when in reality, they have a schedule quirk.

 

The Big 12 currently make it impossible to have more than 1 undefeated team.  

Agree, that's why I think AQs are so important.  At-large teams are selected using subjective criteria and it's just about impossible to eliminate bias.