noDucknewby

Making a case for SMU is one thing, being objective about their value as an expansion candidate is another. It's clear to me that ESPN/Amazon is the driving force in getting them on board because they want a chunk of the DFW market. Sure they have a massive endowment and they are highly rated as an educational institution, but as an addition to an athletic conference do they even move the needle? To me they don't, especially when they would be replacing one of the only true bluebloods the conference had. Not saying there's no upside, but to me this reeks of desperation. Once again we are on our heels playing defense on the goal line. I'm resigned that we'll be adding SDSU and SMU and be lucky to beat the B12 deal which we may not even match, despite what GK says. I like Wilner's take about expansion and TV deal happening in a whirlwind simultaneously, but I don't think that really changes the bottom line much and the longer this thing drags on the greater the chance of the first domino falling with one of the four corners teams leaving.

I'm unfamiliar with that source, but for the sake of argument I'll concede those numbers. That said we are currently guaranteed 9 Power 5 games a year and we almost always have at least 1 Power 5 non-conference opponent. Sure we're able to play teams like Georgia and tOSU, but that's only 1 of 12 games. We're currently playing 9-10 Power 5 opponents annually and just don't see how we match that as an independent. Here's the current independents according to Fox Sport: Independents (FBS) College Football Conference Standings WWW.FOXSPORTS.COM View the Independents (FBS) NCAA college football conference Conference standings and conference rankings. Other than ND there's no team there that has ever made the CFP or has much of a chance to at that. Some also are independent just for football as others have pointed out. If we bailed on the P12, other than OSU how many P12 schools would still be willing to schedule us in football or other sports? Are we anxious to schedule USC and UCLA now that they have bailed? Sure some will because of proximity, but I think we'll have a difficult time coming up with the quality of opponents we currently have. I think that one way or another we'll land on our feet in the expansion roulette, but IMHO it would be very difficult for us to be as relevant as an independent as in a conference.

Can you cite your numbers?

BYU decided the B12 was better than being an independent and they have at least as much national following as the Ducks. We need a conference to stay relevant IMHO, we have a hard enough time scheduling non-conference games as it is.

Well at least it's not a boring off-season.

I agree, my point was that GK's stated timeline has now apparently been nixed. A new TV deal for the 10 existing members would put us in more of a position of strength when negotiating with potential expansion candidates. SMU wants in a Power 5 conference in a big way, but now that they know we're desperate we have way less bargaining power. Same goes for SDSU which has already hinted it might look at the B12.

GK is in a tough spot. His previously stated timeline of TV deal first then expansion has almost certainly been upended by ESPN/Amazon, the latter of which is likely not the deep-pocketed sugar daddy we were hoping for. Unfortunately we're not going to get an open-ended deal like the B1G got. There's no way we would seriously be considering SMU for expansion if we were negotiating from a position of strength. It's ESPN/Amazon driving the bus and all they want is inventory and eyeballs. The talk of the P12(10) standing pat at 10 members and getting a decent TV deal before expansion appears to just be wishful thinking at this point. Agree with David Marsh, we're fighting this war on two fronts. We have to salvage the conference and the TV deal in the short term while keeping our options open after the playoff is expanded and the next round of conference cannibalism begins. Apparently that's a very fine line.

There's some great players and memories there, thanks. One of my favorites was watching Barner slice through the USC defense for his 300+ rushing yards.. For "Tailback U." the record for single-game yardage is held by a Duck in their house. I just love that.

I'm no media expert to be sure, but they have a certain formula they use to quantify media markets or "eyeballs" if you wish. CU and CSU are both deemed part of the Denver media market so adding CSU wouldn't open up any new media market in their view, although they're also looking for more inventory so it would do that. The populations of Eugene/Corvallis and Boulder/Fort Collins are deemed essentially irrelevant as far as determining the market size. Somebody here can correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I've read from Canzano and others this is my understanding. Personally I agree that CSU would make more sense from a cultural and geographic fit. Fort Collins is a great college town and their academics certainly are on par with the P12 schools as a whole. But if they're seriously considering SMU it's only for one reason and that's the DFW media market. Amazon/ESPN don't give a rip about cultural fit or the P12 recruiting Texas.

No new media market. We already have Denver with CU.

If SMU weren't in the DFW market we wouldn't give them a second glance. I hope market share is not going to be the primary driving force in expansion, but that may just be naive. IMHO we missed the boat on Texas when we didn't go after Houston. At that time we could have possibly pulled TT, TCU and SMU as well. It seems very unlikely to me that could happen now, but I guess you never know. That leaves us with the dregs. Not seeing UTEP or UTSA as very desireable additions. If I'm running the show, Plan A is SDSU and UNLV. Plan B would be locking up the left coast with SDSU and FSU. Keep BSU and UNR on the backburner, they most likely aren't going anywhere if we want to add them later.

This has turned into an interesting debate regarding linear versus streaming. I'm a pragmatist, streaming will become the dominant medium in the next few years (maybe sooner). That's technology, embrace it or don't, the world moves on. I have a couple high-school buddies that still don't have cell phones or use the internet. As for the TV deal, without a streaming partner we will be stuck with a crap deal, probably less than the B12 with a whole lot of night games. Sucko. Like it or not, for conference stability we a good TV revenue to help finance the arms race and keep the remaining 10 members in the fold. I just don't see that happening without a streaming partner.

Love my LG OLED, great picture and OS, but they're not cheap to be sure. I have Spectrum and I hate their cable (mostly because it's ridiculously overpriced, no ala carte option, etc) but their internet is good 300+ mps with no buffering.

Ok this bites, I guess maybe DL wasn't entirely forthright when saying he didn't "anticipate" any more staff changes at his recruiting presser. Maybe that was just wishful thinking on his part. Regardless, he clearly has seen this coming and already has good short list. As a Duck fan I'm glad he waited until after the recruiting class was signed to make this move, but from a players perspective it seems a little backhanded. If the players are restricted to certain windows to enter the transfer portal, then it seems only fair that coaches should have similar restrictions IMHO. Yeah I know life ain't fair, but this has always bothered me.

Possible? Of course. Probable? Too many questions in my book. New OC, O-line and pretty much a complete overhaul of the defense. And I agree, this year's teams are the strongest the P12 has been in years. That said, if Nix stays healthy the offense should hum right along and the defense has no place to go but up. I would say we have at least as good of a chance as FSU, Penn State and Texas as listed in the article.

The Achilles Heel to streaming is that if you don't have the required bandwidth it is infuriating. Taking 5 minutes for your app to log on and then watching it buffer endlessly makes me prefer Law and Order reruns on cable. That was years ago for me though, now I have plenty of bandwidth and my streaming apps perform better than my cable box. Agree streaming live sports is kind of clunky now, but does anyone remember dial-up internet?

For me this about trying to turn a weakness into a strength. Right now the P12(10) is in danger of becoming the weakest Power 5 conference, perhaps not even a power conference at all. We can't sugarcoat the loss of the LA market, it's potentially catastrophic. Our expansion options are limited, Fox is all-in on the B1G and ESPN is only interested in the P12(10) except as a value brand. At least we're not the ACC, stuck in a bad, long-term TV deal. Really hard to believe they fell for that one. The B12 may be losing their best name-brands, but they immediately expanded to try and make up the slack. We probably don't have the option of adding four teams that actually add value (unless of course they can be poached from another conference which seems unlikely at this time). So where does that leave us? We are most likely going to be thrust into the forefront of college football streaming, as Jon says the "beta testers". Here I believe is where we make lemonade out of lemons. Take our limited linear TV options along with the failed P12 Network and roll them into some kind of partnership with Amazon. We have the production capabilities, they have worldwide distribution. We have the broadcast experience, they have the deep pockets. An all-in streaming approach is not likely viable at this time, but sometime in the future it likely will be. A 50/50 linear/streaming split is risky to be sure, but mostly in the short-term. It seems likely that streaming will eventually dominate live sports programming. As to the question Jon raises, rough waters at first then hopefully smooth sailing down the road.

Fair points all. Like it or not (I don't), but all conferences are mostly judged by the performance of their bluebloods. The Pac-12 has heard for years (annoyingly so) that they aren't relevant unless USC is good. Despite the fact Texas hasn't been relevant for a while now, they are still the conference bell-cow in perception. Oklahoma does have playoff appearances, but no wins. Like it or not both conferences take a shot in national perception with their most recognizable brands leaving. Sure we have Oregon and Washington, you have OKSt and TCU, but none of these programs are considered bluebloods by the rest of the country. The advantage the B12 has had over the P12 in the past few years is that one B12 team has risen to the top with a record good enough to get them to the playoff. The P12 routinely cannibalizes itself, it seems every year a team seemingly headed to the playoff gets knocked off in November. As for which conference is better? This is a bit of a cop-out, but really all conferences not named the B1G or SEC are on similar footing, struggling to stay relevant and maybe even to survive. Hats off to TCU for a great season, but honestly their playoff appearance seems more like a Cinderella one-off than an indication of the strength of the conference going forward. Yes Georgia was a beast and probably could have beaten anyone on that day, but damn that was an ugly beatdown. I guess the advantage that Oregon had was we had 12 games left in the season to redeem ourselves. TCU finishes the season with two losses and probably not a lot of momentum headed into 2023 IMHO. From my perspective as a P12 guy I don't care much for the B12 commissioner coming in and acting like he can cherry-pick the P12 anytime he feels like it. Sure it's mostly posturing, but it pisses me off. That said, the partnership between the P12 and the B1G is dissolving, so why not screw them and put a B12 team in the Rose Bowl instead? I'd really like to see more marquee matchups between the P12 and the B12, then we'd see who the better conference is. We'll get a bit of a feel for that when the Ducks head to Lubbock in September.

I feel pretty confident in our offense although cohesiveness on the O-line could be an issue, especially if Klemm leaves. That said, our "skill" position players are loaded with talent and experience with the possible exception of depth at tight end. We need to keep Nix healthy, the offense was completely different after he got injured. Let's start by blowing some teams out and letting him rest in the 4th quarter!

Works for me, hopefully he take Penix with him. Wouldn't that get the Fuskies panties in a wad ha ha.

Totally agree, this needs done now. Projections last month were for a deal to be announced sometime in January. By my calendar tomorrow is the 31st and still nothing on the horizon (at least officially). I get it, there's a lot of moving parts but the conference desperately needs some positive forward momentum. We need to quit talking about the LA traitors and move on with a new TV deal and a new member or two. If SDSU slips through our fingers, then that's a collossal failure and it seems like they're running out of patience. Let's get this thing done.

Glad it's official, now we can keep our fingers crossed for Klemm returning.

The underachieving defense of 2022 is certainly a head-scratcher. There's a lot of emphasis here on play calling and rightfully so, but there are other factors at play (yeah I did it). The perfect play call won't work if the players aren't coached up properly and can't execute it. That said, if TL can't call plays (we all remember what happened at Alabama) then we are not getting our money's worth out of him IMHO. He's the highest paid DC we've ever had by a sizeable amount. One season is too small a sample size and I expect the 2023 defense to look completely different, but let's face it the bar is set pretty low right now.

Looks like Klemm might be safe for now? Sources - Bill O'Brien returns to New England Patriots as OC WWW.ESPN.COM Bill O'Brien will return to the Patriots after agreeing to a deal Tuesday to become New England's next offensive coordinator, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Low.

With all due respect, literally no one who follows the Pac-12 forgets how the Larry Scott TV deal worked out. Yeah it's hindsight now, but there's no way the top-tier P-12 schools would agree to a long-term contract like that again. IMHO the new contract will come due about the same time (or earllier) than the B1G to perhaps allow for a return of the LA schools or of course the exit of Oregon and Washington if it goes the other way.