noDucknewby

Too damn many booth reviews, it's ridiculous. Go to a modified challenge system like the NFL. All scoring plays and turnovers automically reviewed, otherwise coaches get two challenges and no loss of challenge or time out if they're right. All challenges should be timed, if there isn't overwhelming evidence to overturn the play in 3 minutes then it stands. No more booth initiated reviews for targeting. If it's not called live on the field then multiple ultra-slow motion replays are not needed. Of course they could do away with some of the TV time outs, but we know that won't happen.

This is a major P12 and Fuskie brush-off, tOSU essentially saying there's no need for us to schedule P12 schools in the future with USC-UCLA in the fold. Bad news for the P12, we could see overall cancellations from the B1G in the near future. Doesn't affect us much at this point, it looks like our next home and home with a B1G team is 2029-30 against MSU. There's virtually no chance the conferences look the same at that point if the P12 still even exists.

The only real source here is Brett McMurphy, though I do believe he is credible. Everyone else is pretty much quoting him and drawing their own conclusions and/or trying to advance their own agenda. This saga reminds me a bit of the Texas/Oklahoma to the P12 article written by Chip Brown in Larry Scott's early tenure. There were dozens of articles essentially saying the same thing, but they were all quoting Chip Brown. Guess what, he was wrong and so was everone else who sourced him. Wilner and Canzano are pretty well connected and like you I don't always agree with them, but they usually have their facts straight IMHO.

Personally I don't think anything has really changed here. If you consider the source, USC and CBS are both down on the P12 and was Turner ever even a serious consideration? Is there cause for concern? Absolutely, but is the situation really different than it was a month ago? Yes this thing is dragging on, but there are a lot of moving parts. We have linear rights, streaming, the P12 Network and expansion all happening (if you believe Wilner) simultaneously. The B12 just renewed their contract with ESPN after already adding four members, a much simpler process. That said, it sure would be nice if they'd just get the damn thing done.

I trust the process. Lanning has a plan and so far it's working. How many of us were familiar with all of DL's original staff hires? Sure Dillingham, Lupoi and Lorig were familiar names, but had anyone ever heard of Locklyn? Adrian Klemm had all kinds of question marks and certainly wasn't considered by most a slam-dunk. Of the the three previously mentioned familiar names I mentioned, two of them have probably underperformed IMHO, yet newcomer Locklyn brings in relative unknowns Irving and Whittington and gives us arguably the best 1-2 punch since James/Barner (Verdell/Dye duo amazing but CJ couldn't stay healthy). Not just being a fan-boy here, DL definitely has room for game day improvement but so far I'd say his ability to assemble a talented staff is as good or better than anyone we've ever had. Looking forward to seeing what Stein, Mehringer, Hampton and Terry can do this year.

Reminds me of when Larry assured us that the P12 Network would be available to everyone, how'd that work out? Secretly hoping we all look like a bunch of Nervous Nellie Chicken Littles when the new deal is announced ha ha.

Talk is cheap, show me the money!

When the B1G put the brakes on expansion and the CFP went to 12 teams that bought us some time, but that window is closing fast. The B12 is nipping at our heels, TV talks are dragging on and the natives are getting restless. Our best chance at long-term survival was probably a merger with the B12, but that ship has most likely sailed. Just about everyone agrees that adding SDSU is a no-brainer so do it now. If adding SMU will salvage the TV deal, then do it now. Just get a short-term deal done now, whatever it takes. Then hopefully we can start being proactive with more expansion for the next round.

Making a case for SMU is one thing, being objective about their value as an expansion candidate is another. It's clear to me that ESPN/Amazon is the driving force in getting them on board because they want a chunk of the DFW market. Sure they have a massive endowment and they are highly rated as an educational institution, but as an addition to an athletic conference do they even move the needle? To me they don't, especially when they would be replacing one of the only true bluebloods the conference had. Not saying there's no upside, but to me this reeks of desperation. Once again we are on our heels playing defense on the goal line. I'm resigned that we'll be adding SDSU and SMU and be lucky to beat the B12 deal which we may not even match, despite what GK says. I like Wilner's take about expansion and TV deal happening in a whirlwind simultaneously, but I don't think that really changes the bottom line much and the longer this thing drags on the greater the chance of the first domino falling with one of the four corners teams leaving.

I'm unfamiliar with that source, but for the sake of argument I'll concede those numbers. That said we are currently guaranteed 9 Power 5 games a year and we almost always have at least 1 Power 5 non-conference opponent. Sure we're able to play teams like Georgia and tOSU, but that's only 1 of 12 games. We're currently playing 9-10 Power 5 opponents annually and just don't see how we match that as an independent. Here's the current independents according to Fox Sport: Independents (FBS) College Football Conference Standings WWW.FOXSPORTS.COM View the Independents (FBS) NCAA college football conference Conference standings and conference rankings. Other than ND there's no team there that has ever made the CFP or has much of a chance to at that. Some also are independent just for football as others have pointed out. If we bailed on the P12, other than OSU how many P12 schools would still be willing to schedule us in football or other sports? Are we anxious to schedule USC and UCLA now that they have bailed? Sure some will because of proximity, but I think we'll have a difficult time coming up with the quality of opponents we currently have. I think that one way or another we'll land on our feet in the expansion roulette, but IMHO it would be very difficult for us to be as relevant as an independent as in a conference.

Can you cite your numbers?

BYU decided the B12 was better than being an independent and they have at least as much national following as the Ducks. We need a conference to stay relevant IMHO, we have a hard enough time scheduling non-conference games as it is.

Well at least it's not a boring off-season.

I agree, my point was that GK's stated timeline has now apparently been nixed. A new TV deal for the 10 existing members would put us in more of a position of strength when negotiating with potential expansion candidates. SMU wants in a Power 5 conference in a big way, but now that they know we're desperate we have way less bargaining power. Same goes for SDSU which has already hinted it might look at the B12.

GK is in a tough spot. His previously stated timeline of TV deal first then expansion has almost certainly been upended by ESPN/Amazon, the latter of which is likely not the deep-pocketed sugar daddy we were hoping for. Unfortunately we're not going to get an open-ended deal like the B1G got. There's no way we would seriously be considering SMU for expansion if we were negotiating from a position of strength. It's ESPN/Amazon driving the bus and all they want is inventory and eyeballs. The talk of the P12(10) standing pat at 10 members and getting a decent TV deal before expansion appears to just be wishful thinking at this point. Agree with David Marsh, we're fighting this war on two fronts. We have to salvage the conference and the TV deal in the short term while keeping our options open after the playoff is expanded and the next round of conference cannibalism begins. Apparently that's a very fine line.

There's some great players and memories there, thanks. One of my favorites was watching Barner slice through the USC defense for his 300+ rushing yards.. For "Tailback U." the record for single-game yardage is held by a Duck in their house. I just love that.

I'm no media expert to be sure, but they have a certain formula they use to quantify media markets or "eyeballs" if you wish. CU and CSU are both deemed part of the Denver media market so adding CSU wouldn't open up any new media market in their view, although they're also looking for more inventory so it would do that. The populations of Eugene/Corvallis and Boulder/Fort Collins are deemed essentially irrelevant as far as determining the market size. Somebody here can correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I've read from Canzano and others this is my understanding. Personally I agree that CSU would make more sense from a cultural and geographic fit. Fort Collins is a great college town and their academics certainly are on par with the P12 schools as a whole. But if they're seriously considering SMU it's only for one reason and that's the DFW media market. Amazon/ESPN don't give a rip about cultural fit or the P12 recruiting Texas.

No new media market. We already have Denver with CU.

If SMU weren't in the DFW market we wouldn't give them a second glance. I hope market share is not going to be the primary driving force in expansion, but that may just be naive. IMHO we missed the boat on Texas when we didn't go after Houston. At that time we could have possibly pulled TT, TCU and SMU as well. It seems very unlikely to me that could happen now, but I guess you never know. That leaves us with the dregs. Not seeing UTEP or UTSA as very desireable additions. If I'm running the show, Plan A is SDSU and UNLV. Plan B would be locking up the left coast with SDSU and FSU. Keep BSU and UNR on the backburner, they most likely aren't going anywhere if we want to add them later.

This has turned into an interesting debate regarding linear versus streaming. I'm a pragmatist, streaming will become the dominant medium in the next few years (maybe sooner). That's technology, embrace it or don't, the world moves on. I have a couple high-school buddies that still don't have cell phones or use the internet. As for the TV deal, without a streaming partner we will be stuck with a crap deal, probably less than the B12 with a whole lot of night games. Sucko. Like it or not, for conference stability we a good TV revenue to help finance the arms race and keep the remaining 10 members in the fold. I just don't see that happening without a streaming partner.

Love my LG OLED, great picture and OS, but they're not cheap to be sure. I have Spectrum and I hate their cable (mostly because it's ridiculously overpriced, no ala carte option, etc) but their internet is good 300+ mps with no buffering.

Ok this bites, I guess maybe DL wasn't entirely forthright when saying he didn't "anticipate" any more staff changes at his recruiting presser. Maybe that was just wishful thinking on his part. Regardless, he clearly has seen this coming and already has good short list. As a Duck fan I'm glad he waited until after the recruiting class was signed to make this move, but from a players perspective it seems a little backhanded. If the players are restricted to certain windows to enter the transfer portal, then it seems only fair that coaches should have similar restrictions IMHO. Yeah I know life ain't fair, but this has always bothered me.

Possible? Of course. Probable? Too many questions in my book. New OC, O-line and pretty much a complete overhaul of the defense. And I agree, this year's teams are the strongest the P12 has been in years. That said, if Nix stays healthy the offense should hum right along and the defense has no place to go but up. I would say we have at least as good of a chance as FSU, Penn State and Texas as listed in the article.

The Achilles Heel to streaming is that if you don't have the required bandwidth it is infuriating. Taking 5 minutes for your app to log on and then watching it buffer endlessly makes me prefer Law and Order reruns on cable. That was years ago for me though, now I have plenty of bandwidth and my streaming apps perform better than my cable box. Agree streaming live sports is kind of clunky now, but does anyone remember dial-up internet?

For me this about trying to turn a weakness into a strength. Right now the P12(10) is in danger of becoming the weakest Power 5 conference, perhaps not even a power conference at all. We can't sugarcoat the loss of the LA market, it's potentially catastrophic. Our expansion options are limited, Fox is all-in on the B1G and ESPN is only interested in the P12(10) except as a value brand. At least we're not the ACC, stuck in a bad, long-term TV deal. Really hard to believe they fell for that one. The B12 may be losing their best name-brands, but they immediately expanded to try and make up the slack. We probably don't have the option of adding four teams that actually add value (unless of course they can be poached from another conference which seems unlikely at this time). So where does that leave us? We are most likely going to be thrust into the forefront of college football streaming, as Jon says the "beta testers". Here I believe is where we make lemonade out of lemons. Take our limited linear TV options along with the failed P12 Network and roll them into some kind of partnership with Amazon. We have the production capabilities, they have worldwide distribution. We have the broadcast experience, they have the deep pockets. An all-in streaming approach is not likely viable at this time, but sometime in the future it likely will be. A 50/50 linear/streaming split is risky to be sure, but mostly in the short-term. It seems likely that streaming will eventually dominate live sports programming. As to the question Jon raises, rough waters at first then hopefully smooth sailing down the road.