EastBayDuckDad

I'm glancing sideways occasionally at the ESPN app to see a score or two but don't give much of a rat's behind about who wins what, except to draw a bead on who Oregon may play in a bowl game. Other than that, getting a head start on some winter tasks. Yeah, a few days of mourning is in order. I appreciate the way the OBDF is getting through this and that we all have a platform where we can constructively vent and commiserate. Thanks, Charles

Well, it'll take a couple days to get over this one. Kudos to UW, they went out and took it.

The problem is Burch, Florence and Jackson are all out. Oregon secondary running on fumes and the D-line is getting beat. It sucks but it is what it is. Washington has played the better game. Short of a miracle..

Both Oregon's starting DBs are out and it shows. Got to get to Penix faster.

The tale of two halfs!

Great gutsy drive. Bo to TFerg Heisman throw. Now the D needs a stop.

This game is only half over. Oregon just had a great drive and score. Tez is lit up. Absolutely right call on that DB PI/Holding of Troy. Good to see him back in the game. Bo knocked that UW defender back on the 2 yd line. TFerg just had the best catch of the season. That drive took some of the air out of Fusky. The Ducks get the ball to start the second half. A TD and we've got a 3 pt game. Defensive adjustments need to be made but if OBD can get stops things can flip pretty fast. Toughest spot they've been in all year. Keep the faith.

That was horrible. Fusky is outplaying Oregon in all facets of this game. Need a drive for score now

Ok, points on the board. Disconcerting that Franklin has been neutralized and now injured. Ugly so far but the Ducks have the depth to keep this going. Get a stop and score.

My guess is that one of their overzealous writers composed a 'what if' article and inadvertently hit the publish key. An "oh, sheet!" moment must've ensued followed by several editors mobilizing the meltdown-damage control DEFCON-1 scenario. It may still come to pass as Ward to Oregon makes some sense, but ooo..weee I wouldn't want to have had that writer's blood pressure for the 15 minutes after they realized what they had done.

Idontroll, got any spare Kingsford? I was doing OK until this morning but now I'm thinking I could flatulize fountains of flawless faceted fractal floes. Might as well do something constructive while I wait for kickoff.

While I dislike the quality of Pac-12 officiating as much as every other OBD fan, I would be pretty shocked to see that kind of disparity in calls. It seems to me that the soon to be conferenceless refs would want to go out as something other than the laughing stock of CFB if they ever hope to be employable again. The truly odious and incompetent refs have declared themselves time and again on the televised games. We all know who they are. I'll be watching with a jaundiced eye as the crew is introduced hoping to not see the worst of the lot. Oregon has been penalized far too much this year due largely to unforced errors and some undisciplined play. The zebras have done them no favors, but if you want to keep the refs out of the game, don't let them into it.

That story disappeared in a gnat's heartbeat. So no confirmation as yet. What a stupid bit of info to leak hours before this game if it is indeed true as it serves no useful purpose in the Oregon locker room. If Ward does indeed ultimately transfer to Oregon, great. It means that the staff sees the best way forward in 2024 is with another veteran QB. Cross that bridge when they come to it, hopefully after a Duck win tonight.

It is actually the TE #37 Westover, that I'd be a bit concerned about. He has caught a few passes in important settings the last couple of games, finding gaps in and behind the LB zone coverage to move the chains. He provides Penix a short throw safety valve and has picked up some of the slack created by Polk and McMillan being less productive. I wouldn't be surprised to see his role expand today, particularly if their run game sputters and if the Ducks have Bassa and Jacobs pin their ears back to come after Penix. #37 is no TFerg and he isn't the greatest run blocker, but he could present an unpleasant surprise or two if left uncovered. I'm assuming DL and Tosh are going to be on top of that.

I would agree that the mutts have relied more on their ground game since 10/14, but not convinced it is that much better. It is not terribly balanced as it has depended on Johnson for >75% of the carries. If you take that insane performance against a horrid U$C run defense out of the equation, the numbers settle down quite a bit, particularly in the last two games. Fuskys O-line is pretty decent in pass protect but less so when running the ball. OSU held them to 110 yds on the ground with Johnson getting most of those touches. Ditto WSU at 102 yds. Oregon played to par against the Beavs since Bo lit them up so bad through the air but Bucky and Co. rolled up 248 on the Cougs. If Johnson is a bit dinged up those numbers won't even be that good against the Duck run defense. Then their offense goes back to depending on how well Penix's arm works. DeBoer and crew have been leaning away from that previously successful strategy since the Oct 14 game and probably will need the run to keep Oregon's safeties honest. If #33 and Co. can stay back in Cover 1 or even 2, while the front seven takes care of business, those Odunze daggers get harder to accomplish.

JJ, thanks for the in depth look.The before and après OBD stats are significantly different for the Fusky offense. Much of that falls on Penix, but some on their revamped O-line and lack of production from any WR not named Odunze. Hythloday1 over at ADQ has done his usual fine job of reviewing the opponent. His insights on why the mutts have underperformed on offense since Oct 14 warrant a look. Duck Tape: Film Analysis Update of Washington 2023 WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM A preview of Oregon’s Pac-12 Championship opponent in Las Vegas While Penix seems to be dealing with some issue(s) that has him at less than peak performance, watch the clip that shows him throwing a dime to #1's back shoulder for a TD against WSU. Injury or no, that is a lethal and undefendable pass that he is still capable of making. The Ducks front seven will need to put enough pressure on Penix to make that throw tough to complete.

Perfect ending. Even Pac-12 refs would be hard pressed to throw a flag when OBD are being such gentlemen.

Keep the hits clean, no emotional, late or stupid hits. No targeting, dammit! 15 yards for roughing the passer on a bang bang play will happen periodically but think about losing Dorlus or Burch to a targeting call in the 2nd quarter. That is the kind of bad that could flip this game to Fusky. Yeah, hit the guy early and often. He rapidly loses his throwing platform and gets inaccurate when he's about to get smacked. Let him constantly hear the pitter-patter of size 15 webbed feet. Make him have gametime single digit nightmares where the numbers #0, #1, #2, #3, #4, #5 and #9 float around his brain like little tweety birds. Keep him skittish and not setting his feet as he understands he won't see the next pressure that's coming. Keep it clean, smart and legit. And after every hit, sack and awkward landing, quietly reintroduce yourself saying "Hi Michael Jr, I'm Jordan, Brandon, Jeffrey, Tysheem, Jamal, etc. and I thought about you all week. Wanted to let you know that #33 is coming by next. Oh yeah and Bo for Heisman"

Watched that play a couple of times and I agree that the zebs swallowed their whistles on that push off on the final play. Consistent with how SEC refs 'let'em play'. While Bama was the beneficiary of that missed call, Auburn hurt themselves by taking a defender out of the play, sitting him 5 yds behind the LOS. He appeared to be a 'spy' on Milroe, but If he rushes maybe the Bama QB doesn't have an hour of time to find his receiver. Auburn killed themselves and in doing so made Oregon's path to the CFP more difficult. So Auburn does it again. War Eagle my fanny. And Dyer's knee was down, dammit!

Oregon 41-31 1 TO 2 Sacks 365 yds passing Penix may only get dropped twice but he will be harassed, pressured and smacked a dozen times. One errant pass gets picked off. Bo gets 3 TDs thru the air and one on the ground. His Heisman will grace the other one in the display case.

Glancing at the Fusky sites this week has been educational, particularly if you read between the lines a bit. I saw the poll that ABNMoose cited on how many points Fusky Fan thinks Oregon will score tomorrow. 78% thought it would be at least 29, 37% thought 36 or more and 10% at least 43 points In the six games since Oct 14, UW has averaged 32 pts/game. Oregon has averaged 42 against essentially the same competition and had higher margins of victory because of how well the defense is playing. Given the tendency to minimize the prowess of the opponent in any rabid fan base, an admission by Fusky Fan that the Ducks could score more than the mutts average is telling. I get the distinct impression from their fan sites that they are bravely spouting the party line of a UW victory, but are privately conceding that the numbers don't support it.

Idontroll, I have a business proposition for you.

Funny that Bama is still in the conversation only because of a Hail Mary delivered against a team that lost to New Mexico State the previous week. While I don't think it will come down to a last second Vegas miracle for a Duck victory, I'll gladly bow my head, bend my knee and genuflect for a Hail Mary finale if that puts OBD in the playoff.

This scenario reminds me of 2014 where an unranked Arizona beat #2 Oregon at home. In the stunning loss at Autzen, Oregon made mistakes, allowed long drives and had too many penalties, including a critical roughing the passer on a sack that allowed Arizona to continue the final drive that won them the game. Oregon then went on a 7-0 tear to finish, outscoring teams by 288-163. The CG was a dominant 51-13 Oregon beatdown that was led by the defense shutting down #8 Arizona's 500+yd per game offense (granted with their backup QB) allowing only 25yds total in the first half. That was then and this is now. This 2023 Oregon team has a better defense and a comparable offense to the 2014 version. But as in 2014, the lessons learned from a loss resulted in an epic run to the Pac-12 CG. Fusky has provided the Ducks with hours of game film against common opponents where they survived by the skin of their canines. Opponents that Oregon blew out decisively. Since that first match up in Seattle the mutts have had every potential weakness exposed. DL and staff will have both sides of the ball prepared. Oregon must play smart and error free football, limiting the advantages that UW has at the WR position. The 9.5 line sounds about right given what these two teams have done since the last meeting. The Ducks are the more talented and deeper team overall but cannot underestimate an underDOG but still dangerous Fusky squad that is being told by the pundits and Vegas that they will lose. I'm hoping for a 2014 replay where the Oregon defense controls the LOS and OBD jumps out to a lead that Fusky can't overcome. Don't let them back in with inopportune penalties, iffy coaching decisions and mistakes. And please, oh please, don't let the outcome rest on a kick as time expires. My bet is they won't and the Ducks punch their ticket to the CFP.

Dang. Don't tell me that I now have to root for Alabama. I like Oregon to win the whole thing with that lineup. Nope, I rather the Ducks not face the Dawgs but too much risk that they'd let two SEC teams in. So.... Go Dawgs!