AnotherOD

I can't remember too many former Ducks associated with missions (the two names I recall being Hamani Stevens and Brandon Bair who both worked out well). The discussions always involved around lineman or QBs. QBs because one worries about everything with QBs and lineman because big guys often tend to... continue to get big at that age. It has been said missions traditionally intentionally have been planned to not allow youngsters much if any time to pursue any serious outside endeavors (like training) for the very reason they didn't really want youngsters pursuing any serious outside endeavors (outside the mission). No real idea how accurate though.

I don't see anything that would disqualify Novosad one day from petitioning for a 6th year due to an injury this year that lingered and kept him out of games (outside of an emergency). The 6th year may not be a for sure thing (but if so) I imagine everything is being done to maximize his chances within the rules (including not making a bunch of unnecessay statements to please curious fans and media). Pre-NIL and settlement, missing out on a 6th year wasn't as big a deal; but, now, it can mean a bunch of money. Maalik Murphy got $1.5 million from OSU to go 2-10. Under the old rules where transfering was rare if a coach wanted to burn a year for 20 snaps, it nearly always happened. Now if a coach is making those kinds of calls, players are in the portal. After the injury, if Novosad decided it shut it down outside of an emergency, I have little doubt Dan would be behind it. Tip of the cap for hanging in for 2025. It makes more sense to me than Novosad totally falling off a cliff.

I was always a bit surprised Neuheisel never found another coaching stop somewhere after UCLA but, at this point, he has now been gone 14 years and I think turns 65 in February. Jerry is now 33, so maybe he is thinking coach 3-5 years and hope to hand it off to his son? Chip is 62 and must not be ready to get out of the game. I took a look at available sources and it looks like since coming to Oregon, Chip has earned about $82 million. I would hope he only jumps back into college head coaching if he is over whatever that exit at UCLA was. Has that happened? It would be a concern I think in hiring him. 6 colleges had head coaches 64+ this year: Belichick (73), Ferentz (70), Keeler (66), Whittingham (66), Fritz (65), Cignetti (64), and Mora (64); and, 2/6 have been their schools 27 and 22 years. Overall only 11 coaches were 60+. Given those ages and all the recent changes to the college game, as an AD, I don't think I could pull the trigger on either; but, I think both could probably fill some seats. Last year, WSU only averaged about 24,300 in attendance, behind several of its new conference foes (Fresno State 41k, Boise State 37k, Oregon State 36k, Colorado State 33k, San Diego State 25k). I guess after good numbers to start the year, attendance tailed off and ended up lower (about 23,200). I think FCS Montana averaged over 26k a game (so it almost has to be a bit of a concern).

Fielding misses a FG? Isn't this the guy Ohio State fans were sure was going to walk on the field and knock in the game winner at Autzen last year if they had not gotten "screwed"? The guy who also missed two against Michigan too?

For those who missed, some of the transcripts. [ Adult language edited Kraft doesn't use fricking ] On the Oregon game and roster talent: "But because we play close to the number two team frick them that ain't the number two fricken team my team's better than them and I don't want you guys to fall victim to what the crowd is saying cuz when we're at the end of the year last we start fricken punishing people in the Oregon game it just I know we didn't come out with the outcome we wanted but man we played our fricken balls off and started moving people and moving people that was a small glimpse" On Penn State’s location and recruiting disadvantages: "I'm so glad you brought that up because that's the question we're asking them we matter we probably need to fricken change the way we recruit, cuz Alabama ain't around crap in South Carolina oregon have you all been to Oregon no sh_t here ain't sh_t going on it's a bunch of fricken weirdos... ohio State it's the one thing our fans don't understand it's a city there's no doubt there is no doubt but I thought that would be like one of the biggest things that I agree... but like to your guys you're all saying it and we're giving you an insight of what we're we're interviewing like what we're talking to Terry about later this afternoon it's like that crap like so how do you fix that like I can't tell I'm not wired you're not wired he'll be like frick it we're at Happy Valley" On National Championship contenders: "Those are the things we have to get addressed if we are going to actually win a national championship. Which is what we will do here that's what Ohio State Michigan is a pains me to fricken say and George Bama and Oregon right now although I think they're frauds" On Penn State culture vs. Oregon/Nike: "The Penn State thing is real i'm not dismissing that but the Penn State thing doesn't get you the Penn State job, the plan and how you embrace the Penn State culture gets you the Penn State head coaching job right that's why Terry has the upside... why you think fricken Phil Knight Phil Knight they fricken got the Nike the whole Nike Deal Like that's why they won't win a national champ" On NIL money and Texas: "... my buddy is the guy behind Texas i tell these guys he put $22 million of his loan money into Texas he put he gave the $5 million to Archie and it's like they pay 65 guys they pay 65 guys and they gave $5 million to Arch Manning footnote oh by the way everybody else gets a scholarship i know we don't care about scholarships anymore but you still get the scholarships right they get the off and all that and if you don't you're out georgia Oregon what they do you're late for class $10,000 fine that's how they get their money back" On winning expectations: "We ain't fricken trying to win six seven fricken games trying to win the whole fricken thing and we damn know let's just call it what it is it's two fricken games got to win you get past Ohio State Oregon whoever the fricken game like that's it everybody else should fricken blow their fricken doors off they don't hold a fricken candle to you all".

I think I read Oregon had a 25 day layoff last year before tOSU (12/7 to 1/1). If Oregon gets a first round game, it still ends up being 21 days (11/29 to 12/20). If it gets a bye, it is going to be 33 days (11/29 to 1/1). As an Oregon fan I don't think it's good to have anything to do with 33 days. Going back to 2010, Oregon/Auburn faced the longest layoff between the end of a season and the final, 37 days (12/4 to 1/10). While entertaining, I'd argue the first half wasn't at all sharp by either team. At least both teams had to deal with it. In the case of this season, the bye teams coming off a layoff of 33 days face a team playing after 11 days off. I think there is again a good chance the bye teams all at least go into a first half hole. ASU (down 17-3) Oregon (down 34-8) Boise State (down 17-7) Georgia (down 13-3) It all looks pretty good right now for Oregon. I think most Duck fans already are pulling for Georgia, but I think it really doesn't want an Alabama win throwing a monkey in the wrench.

Comparing the Stein years? Well, one could also use something like Offensive FEI (opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring advantage per non-garbage time possession) over at BCSToys? 2023 1 Oregon 1.13 2 LSU 1.09 3 Georgia 0.85 4 Washington 0.65 2024 1 Ohio State 0.81 2 Oregon 0.76 3 Miami 0.73 4 Indiana 0.63 2025 1 Vanderbilt 1.01 2 USC 0.81 3 Oregon 0.75 4 Old Miss 0.72 A dip in non-garbage time offense from year one to three with all 3 seasons firmly elite level? If Stein did stay another year the trend would suggest another dip to 4th in the nation on offense in 2026. Offensive F+ shows a similar pattern.

It took me a minute to figure out what this chart is trying to do. The colors make it a bit confusing. If the team averaged 310, 309, and 308 yards rushing in three consecutive season, one would be good, one would be so-so, and one would be bad. 300+ yards rushing is just good in all three years. Suggesting 310 would be a good year but 307 bad seems silly (as does highlighting dropping from 310 to 307 as significantly notable). I'd enjoy a chart with the same data that used generally accepted averages of good, average, and poor in each category and used colors to see how the offenses has done under Stein against those.

Penn State may very well be the big early signing day story tomorrow. I think they are down to 5 commits and all 5 I guess are either on flip watch or at least not expected to sign early. There seems to be the possibility they have 0 early signings tomorrow.

USC locked down three Mater Dai commits back in April and May, with some reported significant NIL assets (Bowman, Topui, and Scott). Mater Dai had what for them was a bit of a down year. I of course don't follow the Trinity League that closely but the long time mod at the USC site Wildwest Sports (Java) does. His recent comments on the three? "I said this team is overrated. They are undisciplined. They are ghetto. And almost all the players that USC is getting I truly do not like... going 7-3 or 8-3 with that talent is embarrassing. Mater DEI should fire (head coach) Lara and USC should pull the scholarships of Bowman, Scott and the fat kid (Tupui) in the middle. Or let Bowman redshirt." Who knows of course, but found it interesting given the fanfare going along with USC's class this year. 🤷‍♂️

Not sure exactly how accurate it is, but I've read Boise State and Auburn fans suggest by comparison Harsin makes Bryan Kelly look charming. I think Oregon kicked the tires on Harsin in both 2017 and 2021. It certainly could be argued that had potential disaster written all over it.

I imagine there are more than a few of us keeping an eye on what happens at Florida (and who they hire) if a certain freshman WR (briefly signed then released by Oregon) who went through an unfortunate injury plagued freshman season might be open to a fresh start? 6-3 and 215 would compliment Dakorien, Evan Stewart, and McClellan nicely in 2026. As well, (a Duck runner-up) freshman CB at LSU (who has looked very good), might consider a change with their new staff (though if he can handle Brian Kelly he probably can handle just about anyone). Odds for either a huge longshot but...

Looks like Crader is warming up with the ones and World with the twos. My guess is they are going to rest him if they can get by.

Yikes. Any idea what the plan would be at LT? Rogers? Bedford? Crader? Not ideal if World can't go.

From advanced stats, not including the Oregon/Minnesota and Iowa/USC games (only non-garbage time regulation snaps): Points Per Drive: USC: 3.71 (#2) Oregon: 3.33 (#8) However, Points Allowed Per Drive: Oregon: 1.13 (#4) USC: 2.26 (#72) And yards per play: USC: 8.07 (#1) Oregon: 7.19 (#5) Defensive yards per play allowed: Oregon: 3.75 (#1) USC: 6.07 (#92)

I was looking at some numbers and wow have Oregon and USC both faced some lower ranked offenses: USC: Notre Dame #25 Michigan #50 Nebraska #69 Illinois #70 Georgia Southern #75 Michigan State #80 Purdue #91 Northwestern #95 Missouri State #98 Iowa #118 Oregon Indiana #6 Montana State #14 (FCS) Rutgers #40 Oregon State #86 Northwestern #95 Penn State #108 Iowa #118 Oklahoma State #120 Minnesota #124 Wisconsin #133 So, both defenses probably have at least slightly elevated defensive stats; but, the good news is Oregon is ranked #3 in total defense and USC is #50. USC gave up 34 points and 442 yards to its top 40 offense faced (including 306 rushing). 4.5 points and 16 yards under Notre Dame's averages. Oregon allowed 30 points and 326 yards to Indiana (13 points and 152 yards under its average) and 10 points and 202 yards to Rutgers (20 points and 219 yards below their average). If one wants to throw in Montana State they were held 26 points and 199 yards below their average. So, looking at it from an outsider's perspective, Oregon's #3 overall defense might be helped out by half its opponents rated outside the top 100 in total offense; but, USC facing 8/10 opponents rated #69 or lower in total offense might be helping it's #50 overall total defense ranking too. USC's offense looks elite, Oregon's offense looks near elite, Oregon's defense looks elite (to near elite) and USC's defense looks really about right on FBS average, and the game is at Autzen. My initial guess is Stein and company may have a spring in their step this week. USC's front has been described as "more athletic than physical" and on the back end I guess they have been using a lot of cover one with man-to-man. Stein should be open to attack any way he chooses.

In the trenches, interesting to look at some of the dire preseason predictions about the OL starting three first year portal transfers (it wasn't here but certainly was pushed by at least one well known Duck site): On paper, offense predicts 3,260 yards rushing at 14 games (2,157 currently). Last year, without a single first year transfer portal OL, Oregon rushed for 2,211 yards in 14 games. From 4.4 ypc to 6.6 ypc. Sacks allowed are also down from 1.50 per game to 1.22 per game. ATQ often brings up those successful Cristobal OL season (and they were good) but: 2019: 14g, 2482 rush @ 5.1, 1.79 sack 2020: 7g, 1167 rush @ 5.0, 1.57 sack 2021: 14g, 2833 rush @ 5.4, 1.71 sack 2025: 14g, 3260 rush @ 6.6, 1.22 sack (predicted)

Rumors swirling of as many as 4 guys out on offense Saturday, anyone else? I guess it has hit some of the bigger Duck forums, Scoop Duck, Ducks Rising (plus Reddit): "Dak is out, Harkey out , Davison will play and Sadiq is questionable. This is info from a insider forum"

Couple of nice drives in the first quarter 7-7. I'm with GeotechDuck. 🙂

Season opener, going to try to avoid being too harsh until we see Shelstad return. Glad to hear Kwame seems to be ok (it looked like a bit of a knee hyperextention which AI tells me can vary quite a bit in severity but if there isn't a lot of pain, swelling, or bruising it is a good sign, as is being able to walk on it soon after). Generally felt ok about the two new guys at forward, Pryor (6-7) and Stewart (6-9), to go along with Evans (6-10). I see Simpkins averaged 16.4 at Elon last year on 42/37/76 shooting. Clutch drive for the game winner. If he can consistently bring something similar, I'm not without optimism. Not really plays to be praising, but sort of fun to see Demir effortlessly bouncing guys around (there is a guy on Ege? Nope no more). 🙂

Bryan Bennett Marcus Mariotta Jake Rodrigues Jeff Lockie Damion Hobbs Morgan Mahalak Travis Jonsen Tristen Wallace Terry Wilson Justin Herbert Much has been written about Mariotta finding his way to Oregon; and, it certainly was helpful having Herbert playing football right down the road from Autzen; but, those QBs brought in otherwise? QB is of course notoriously a tough spot to evaluate; but, I would say still safe to question the "great evaluator" tag? Among Rodrigues, Mahalak, and Jonsen, really important spot to whiff. Even in the Herbert year, flipping Tristen Wallace from Ohio State was the bigger splash after Seth Green decommitted to Minnesota (himself an eventual QB washout who ended up as a sort of hybrid WR/RB at UM). Wallace of course quickly ends up in some hot water and turns into a WR at Prairie View A&M. [ If one wants to throw in Daryle Hawkins and Green, you find five recruits brought in for a look at QB who ultimately ended up college WRs, TEs, or hybrid ball carriers (Hawkins, Hobbs, Jonsen, Wallace, and Green). 5 out of 12 QB recruits (42%) turning in college receivers just seems an odd number in evaluating how well someone has done recruiting QBs ] Without VA, it is quite possible Helfrich struggles to even make it to 2016. "Penthouse to the outhouse" style collapse in a single season doesn't appear to have been impossible. 🫤

Nice to see Kwame Evans rebound from 2 points, 4 rebounds, and 0 assists in 20 minutes versus Utah to 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists in 26 minutes versus Stanford. It would be helpful if Evans, former composite five star (#15 nationally), now a junior, could become a reliable 12/8/4 guy this year to go along with Bittle and Shelstad. Former Duke/Ohio State PF Sean Stewart (also a 2023 composite five star and #17 nationally) had a nice game with 15 on 6-8 from the floor to go along with 4 boards. Seems like Texas transfer SF Devon Pryor (who pulled himself out of the NBA draft but was worked out by the Blazers in May) is off to a slow start, 5 points in 27 minutes against Utah and 0 points in 26 minutes against Stanford. Altman should have both a fair degree of talent and upperclassmen in 2025 (plus a pair of international additions). It seems like a tournament bid, with no more major injuries, should about be the floor? Way off?

Oregon's biggest nightmare? • How about "Dan Lanning Hired by Penn State"? • How about "Phil Knight Embraces Scientology?" • How about "Dakorian Moore, Jordan Davison portal to Ohio State"? • How about "Huskies beat Oregon by FG, Join Playoff, Oregon to Play Houston in Alamo Bowl"? Maybe my nightmares are worse than others? In seriousness though: "If Indiana (or any other 'outside' program) does win a national championship before the Ducks, Oregon fans will be left slack-jawed and misty-eyed, crying, 'That should have been us!'." If Indiana, or Vanderbilt, or Texas Tech wins it all, good for them. It would be fine quite possibly enjoyable to see Indiana beat Alabama or Vanderbilt beat Ohio State. It wouldn't have that much to do with Oregon. Oregon would have had its chances and not got it done. It happens. The system has now significantly changed. Someone else adapting faster and getting there first? Sure. Absolutely possible. Good for them. As a Duck fan I have never felt Oregon was inherently owed to be the next "breakthrough National Champion". You have to win it or what's the point? No crying. 🙂

How about $200,000 cash in a McDonald's bag to cast aside your lifelong Duck allegiance and transform Mike Parker style into a huge Beaver fan? You must watch all their games on TV and actually root for them, visit Reeser for at least one game per season, wear their gear out at least once per week (year-round), and regularly talk up Beaver baseball to all your friends and family. You must keep a John Canzano subscription and must bad mouth Nike whenever possible, and only refer to Oregon as the 'ucks?

"Can you imagine where Oregon would be if it fired Coach Brooks before the Rose Bowl?" One of my favorite topics from Duck history that isn't discussed too frequently anymore. Not so much about not firing Brooks, just the many "what ifs/what could have beens" that sort of sank the Duck program in the early 1970s; and, the story of the AD who arguably took an ok program and led it to a decade of futility (35-82-4) followed by ten years of mediocrity (58-56) before the 1994 Rose Bowl season breakthrough. Sort of maybe fits in with the topic of coaching searches, hirings, and firings too. It starts in 1972. The previous 50 years Oregon had been a fair 242-216-28 (with only one losing decade). Jerry Frei, a member of Oregon's staff for 17 years and 5th year head coach, had gone 22-29-2 (but had shown an upward trajectory in 70-71 going 11-10-1 behind the likes of Fouts and Moore) resigned rather than follow the direction of 2nd year AD Norv Ritchey (following pressure from boosters over five consecutive losses to the Beavers) to fire several of his assistants (a story at the time reported in the Register Guard and later confirmed by Fouts). At the time, the Oregon staff included, John Robinson who would go on to win a National Championship at USC and become a member of the college football hall-of-fame, George Siefert who went on to coach the NFL 49s and Panthers (retired with a top 5 career winning percentage among NFL coaches with 100+ wins), Gunther Cunningham who went on to coach 35 years in the NFL including head coach at KC, John Marshall who went on to coach 30 years in the NFL including DC stops with 5 teams, and Bruce Snyder future head coach at Utah State, Cal, and ASU. At the time, the Oregon job wasn't at all viewed as the bottom of college football world, but rather as stuck in mediocrity but a viable opportunity. Oregon had beaten USC in 70-71 and had otherwise been genetally competitive outside a couple paycheck games. Frei had recruited well, and Autzen wasn't even 5 years old. One name that had popped up in the early coaching search (which included over a dozen candidates) was then San Diego State head coach Don Coryell (who of course went on to revolutionize NFL offenses). AD Ritchey had apparently wanted Oregon assistant coach Dick Enright all along, a young former SoCal high school coach with exactly two seasons of college coaching experience (Enright, at 37, was the same age as Dan Lanning was when he arrived at Oregon). Ritchey eventually got his way and Enright was hired. Oregon went 6-16 the next two years and Enright reportedly learned about his firing from a phone call by a reporter. Ritchey then hired Don Read from Enright's staff, whose primary experience had been going 39-52-1 at Portland State from 68-71. He goes 9-24 in three seasons. Oregon' top target in 1977 to replace Don Read was none other than Bill Walsh. The story goes Walsh wanted to be a head coach in the NFL but after getting passed over for the Cincinnatti job, he took the OC job in SD for a season where he learned he had been essentially "blackballed" around the NFL by then legendary but ill-tempered coach Paul Brown. Walsh moved to the college game and picked the Stanford opening over Oregon. The second choice was UW DC Jim Mora, the eventual 15 year NFL head coach, probably most well known for his stay with the Saints (and his "Playoffs? We are just trying to win a game and you are talking playoffs?" rant). Mora was interested but eventually took his name out of the running. Brooks, who had been Oregon State DC in 1973, DB coach for the SF 49s for two seasons, and LB coach at UCLA under first year head coach Terry Donahue in 1976, got the job. Brooks goes 24-49-4 his first 7 seasons at Oregon trying to dig out of the Ritchey, Enright, and Read hole (not helped by the scandal plagued early 1980s), yielding a 12 year run of 38-89-4. Brooks finally goes 28-28 in the five year run up to the 1989 Independence Bowl. John Robinson, George Siefert, Gunther, Cuningham, John Marshall, Don Coryell, Bill Walsh, and Jim Mora coulda been. Or, just stick with Frei and let that staff cook. Instead Oregon got AD Ritchey directing 38-89-4.