Finish your profile right here and directions for adding your Profile Picture (which appears when you post) is right here.

Everything posted by AnotherOD
-
Malik Benson Needs His Own Discussion.
Benson certainly could be a huge wild card, that might pay unexpected dividends this year (and possibly even next if he gets his second JUCO season back). Lily Crane even wrote an article for SI.com called: "Oregon Duck's Malik Benson: One of College Football's Most Overlooked Players?" For those unfamiliar, Benson played every game for two season for JUCO powerhouse Hutchinson CC in Kansas. He caught 97 passes for 2,152 yards and 21 TDs there, and emerged as the #1 overall JUCO recruit and a mid four star committing to Alabama. His first year there he played in all 14 games but only ended up with 13 catches for 162 yards and 1 TD in a role as sometimes WR3. He transferred to FSU, presumably looking for a bigger role, then hurt his foot in their Spring game. From there he played in all 12 games of FSU's unhappy 2-10 campaign. He was their second leading WR with 25 catches for 311 yards and 1 TD (with the highest per target success rate, second highest yards per target, and second highest explosiveness rate among their WRs). As Solar points out, he ran a blazing 10.4 in high school and I've found a couple places giving him praise for "polished route running". Other reports have used: "explosive", "a slippery open field runner", "good balance and the ability to break tackles", and "a special athlete with major big-play ability". His somewhat limited impact so far at the FBS level? Described as being behind Jermaine Burton (Cincinnati) and Isiah Bond (Cleveland) at Alabama (and possibly not the best fit for the offense Alabama was running for Milroe); and, just being caught up in everything going wrong at FSU. I also found one note from FSU in 2024 (for whatever it is worth), similar to what was sometimes expressed in regards to Evan Stewart last year, that he often appeared on film to break open in the deep field, but for whatever reason, seldom received a target.
-
General Comments on Ducks & College Football
I just read over on Yahoo Sport's Misery index (Dan Wolken) describe DeBoer's huge 2023 season at Washington as: (an) "Entire season played on the knife’s edge with a series of Houdini-esque escapes thanks to the brilliance of quarterback Michael Penix."
-
General Comments on Ducks & College Football
"How wonderful to see Bama go down. I’m still flummoxed as to why DeBoer is struggling there." Could it be as simple as Penix? The right guy in the right system at the right time? Some success with Haener in 2021 and McMaryon in 2018 but not quite like Penix. I was a bit surprised to see DeBoer go with Simpson (an Alabama recruit) rather than Mack (from UW) or Keelon Russell (five star and national Gatorade player of the year and DeBoer recruit). If he is gonna go down, he might as well do so with one of his guys running his system. I guess Simpson was not terrible but a bit of a "mixed bag" in the FSU game.
-
GameDay Thread: Oregon vs. Montana State...Let's Discuss!
Taco Dowler quietly having a good day. Up to 7 catches for 59 (8.4 ypc).
-
GameDay Thread: Oregon vs. Montana State...Let's Discuss!
Bedford (#77) banged up? Edit: he was in that drive.
-
Prediction Contest vs. Montana State: First One of the Year!
Oregon 38-12 1 4 288
-
Under Construction…CEMENT…Week 4 Fall Camp
A unnecessary guide to the three minutes from the last scrimmage (starting about the 4:00 minute mark) shown in the video, for those of us looking for any bit of information to pour over from fall camp: • Dante Moore (#5) runs out to start the scrimmage • Dante Moore (#5) with what looks like about a 30+ yard strike down the sideline to Dakorien Moore (#1) covered tightly by Ify (#9) • Jordon Davison (#0) punches in a short TD run • Novosad (#16) throws a deep ball to Kasper (#3) that is knocked away in tight coverage by Finney (#4) • Novosad (#16) with a first down pass to Cooper Perry (#17). Somomon Davis (#15) in on the tackle • TD run in the corner by Jay Harris (#22) • Novosad (#16) to Kasper (#3) tackle by Offord (#14) for what looks like about 10 yards • "Mater Dei tackles Mater Dei", Davison (#0) tackled by Aydin Breland (#42) • Theineman (#31) tackles Kasper (#3) on a short pass, knocking ball away • Nifty screen to Dierre Hill (#23) for a TD • What looks like maybe a TE screen to Jamari Johnson (#9) who rumbles for what looks like a big gain. Douglas Utu (#55) out ahead blocking. Moore (#5) and Ponch (#72) excited on the sideline. Finney (#4) makes the final stop • LB Jerry Mixon (#54) makes a stop • Limar (#27) gets stopped for no gain then gets caught behind the line by (#55) Matthew Johnson right after getting the hand-off • Moore (#5) completes about a 10 yard pass to McClellan (#11) • Moore (#5) completes about a 10 yard TD to Bryant (#2) who toe-taps in the back of the endzone • Novosad (#16) completes what looks like about a 20 yard completion to J.Johnson (#9) who makes a great grab staying in-bounds • Novosad (#16) completes about a 10 yard TD pass to Kasper (#3) over being blanked by Offord (#14) right on the endzone sideline • Aaron Flowers (#21) blankets then knocks away a Moore (#5) pass to Sadiq (#18) in the endzone in single covetage • Moore (#5) comes back to Sadiq (#18) for the TD fitting a pass between 3 Duck defenders in Ify (#7), Mixon (#54), and I think Mothudi (#33) • Lanning and Pregnon (#75) end the scrimmage with some positive words
-
Week 1 - Thursday Night Games Chat (Spoilers)
Did not realize Oregon's opening opponent (Montana State) beat UT Martin (Oklahoma State's opening opponent) in the second round of the FCS playoffs last year 49-17 (gave me a small "wait what?" kind of moment). It looks like 27-7 just going final. Early returns seem to be Oklahoma State "has not looked great tonight" and been "kinda meh". 360 yards of offense from Oklahoma State (232 passing, 128 rushing, 5.0 yards per play, 20 first downs, 0 turnovers, 225 yards allowed on defense).
-
Stat Geeks Will Love This OLine Review
"There are a lot of reasons to suspect that the 2025 Oregon Ducks offensive line will not be as effective as recent units. There are some reasons for optimism though. The staff has shown that if a combination on the line isn’t working, they are willing to make changes. I would not be surprised if we see three transfers play against Montana state, but that they re-shuffle to play only one or two by the time they head to Penn State" This is the kind of stuff that I'm not crazy about. It pretty much says, "Well, I guess we don't know as much as the coaches, but, well, we probably do, so at least when they realize we were correct, at least they have shown the willingness to be flexible to do what we knew was best." Not a huge fan, especially when one side is two guys relying on spreadsheets and the other a highly paid, experienced group of coaches who see the players practice daily. 🫤
-
Stat Geeks Will Love This OLine Review
Overall, I tend to enjoy the detail from the two guys over at ATQ. First of all, they tend to provide video to support their observations; and, that allows one to decide for themselves their level of agreement. Second, they seem to take care in collecting data and comparing it with historical numbers and trends. However, I sometimes feel they get a bit too into their own data and how they apply it. They have been pretty pessimistic about the 2025 Duck OL (and World in particular). I think in another recent article they suggested the best possible use of World (this single year the Ducks have him) would be for him to sit out the season and use it to get additional time learning the Duck system (to lessen their "transfer effect"), and adding more muscle (his "anchoring issues"), and to instead have him start playing in late December for the playoffs. Instead they suggest using rSO Genorris Wilson at LT (who I had hoped we would have heard more about in fall camp but that has been pretty quiet), who has I guess graded out ok so far; but, with only 50 career (mostly) garbage time snaps since high school, what does that really mean? The article even suggests it might be fair to pencil him in as "about an average FBS LT if thrown in this year" Wait, we know that exactly how? Did the coaches know that when they went out and got two portal OT? I appreciate having the guts to throw out such predictions if one really believes it (who knows maybe the OL will be the huge topic of conversation the first month of the season or longer); but, I'll have to go with the coaches and their evaluations on this one -- which by almost all accounts seem to an OL plan they are cautiously optimistic about that includes World -- rather than ATQ data. Geoff Schwartz also did a pretty deep film dive on World and seemed to think most of the problems that ATQ dinged World for were correctable. I am comfortable saying Geoff knows some OL. Further, I'm willing to give World a bump for not having to play for a Nevada team, 7-30 during his time there (getting regularly blasted in the Mountain West by the likes of Air Force, Utah State, and Hawaii). It wouldn't surprise me to see a guy lose a bit of focus, have a few bad reps, and be at times possibly a bit frustrated in that environment. The 4-8 Ducks squad in 2016 likely had some good guys put up some at times not so great reps on film getting blasted all season.
-
Jim Leavitt: Oregon D-Coordinator of 2017-18 Was Arrested
Not related to Leavitt except maybe as "bad news for former Ducks", a list of players released today on NFL cut down day: Pharaoh Brown - Miami Thomas Graham - Chicago Chase Cota - Cleveland Brandon Johnson - Philadelphia Casey Rogers - Buffalo Stephen Jones - Pittsburg Patrick Herbert - Jacksonville Jabbar Muhammed - Jacksonville Traeshon Holden - Dallas Royce Freeman - Chicago Tysheem Johnson - Chicago Jake Hanson - Atlanta Dontae Manning - Atlanta Shane Lemieux - NO Trikweze Bridges - Carolina Kristian Williams - Denver Kahlef Hailassie - Minneaota Bradyn Swinson - NE
-
The Bobcats are an FCS Team, But ...
Sagarin last year rated the top FCS teams at: #37 South Dakota State #45 Montana State #68 South Dakota #91 UC Davis #112 Montana #117 Idaho Do I see this as maybe a bit high, especially if they had to play a full FBS schedule? Possibly. However, the top FCS programs somewhere between maybe 50 to 80? I certainly would listen to an argument. If Montana State ends up a top 4 FCS team this year, arguably they rate as an opponent competitive with the likes of the 2024 versions of: Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Cal, Syracuse, etc. Certainly show up and play poorly, they likely will hang around. Hang around long enough and catch a few breaks, possibly a real problem. It should be fine, I don't think Oregon has ever lost to an FCS opponent at Autzen, even in the down years. However, if one wanted to pull up the 2004 loss opening the season at Autzen to 3-8 Indiana? That was a Duck squad with some dudes: Haloti Ngata, Devan Long, Anthony Trucks, Kellen Clemens, Demetrius Williams, Tim Day, Adam Snyder, Enoka Lucas, Terrence Whitehead, and others. That Indiana team didn't have a single NFL draft pick that year (and had one, a WR in the third round, the next year).
-
Jurrion Dickey Suspension?
Ryan Pellum lands at Deleware State. I had forgotten DeSean Jackson taking over as HC there.
-
Jurrion Dickey Suspension?
I've read in a couple places the last couple days something to the effect of "another Oregon 5 star bust"; and, wondering where exactly this is coming from? I think Oregon has done pretty well with 5 stars? Leaving out Dickey, in the "recruiting ratings era", I count 13 "consensus" 5 stars. As referenced above, a little over 50% get drafted? I'm seeing 62% at Oregon (with perhaps one * of course). Out of the 13, I'd say 7 were very good or better players who were drafted. Haloti Ngata Johnathan Stewart Arik Armstead Josh Conerly Jr. Kayvon Thibodeaux DAT Noah Sewell Number 8 is the * Lache Seastrunk I'd say most say "bust" and I get it; but, he of course was in the middle of the Lyles thing while at Oregon (which kind of ended it before it started). After transferring to Baylor, in two seasons went 289 carries for 2,189 yards and 18 TDs at 7.6 yards per carry. Left a season early and was drafted in the 6th round by Washington. The next 3 likely go down as "busts" given their ranking. Cameron Colvin: injuries of course, though seemed to finally be on track his last year at Oregon before the ankle injury at WSU, but I get it Thomas Tyner: I've always thought had some very solid contributions at Oregon prior to the shoulder injury but for a 5 star I get it Dontae Manning: became a solid contributor at Oregon but I'd imagine most would say closer to "bust" for a 5 star never breaking through. Manning actually played in 52 games at Oregon with 1,161 snaps. Draft Buzz reported a 65.5 QB rating when targeted as a junior and 64.9 as a senior, which actually is pretty good. Tore off a 4.26 forty at his Pro Day with a 39.5 in vertical and 10.06 broad jump and signed a UFA contract with Atlanta Not much to add for the final 2. Canton Kaumatule Justin Flowe 13 guys, 8 NFL draft picks, one solid contributor and UFA, two pulled down at least in part to injuries, and only 2 clear "busts"? Seems solid.
-
Do NEW Metrics Support the FanDuel Odds for CFB ’25 Champ?
Interesting RP hasn't been adjusted to the portal era? Not exactly sure how it is adjusted; but, if you look at RP for the Duck OL you see 1 player with 15 career starts However, the projected unit has 138 FBS starts and a collective 21 years inside college football programs. Over 100 career starts and an average of over 4 years of experience per starter are both very positive numbers. Hughes has 523 carries and 2,779 yards the last two years at Tulane. Jordan James finished his career at Oregon with 386 carries. Dillon Theineman had 210 tackles and 6 ints his last 2 years at Purdue. Theran Johnson 25 starts at NW. Oregon is going to be running a lot of young guy out there but an RP of 5 seems wildly off, even if technically accurate.
-
Oregon Lose Five-Star Freshman to Brutal Leg Injury During Training Camp
It has only been out there for an hour or two. Possibly my post should be deleted until better confirmed. I did see the McNutt stuff out there yesterday, so that proved accurate, but maybe jumping the gun 😐
-
Would Dan Lanning Have Recruited These Guys?
I don't want to ruffle any feathers here (small pun intended); but, regarding Bear, I can see an argument about "past on the field" issues (chasing playing time, moving around 8 schools in 9 years); but, any behavior "off the field" that has caused any alarm? OP's question seems to be about recruits with possible "bad actor" pasts, haven't seen that apply to Bear? A guy who wants more snaps to me is maybe in a different category than DUII (Carrington), heroin and cocaine and assault (Lyerla), meth (Maloata), theft and criminal mischief (Leiato), SA (Wallace), indecent exposure (Merrit), or murder (Prevot). The Brandon Austin (SA) situation from the basketball program probably best fits. I don't think Dan is giving Austin a shot. I would guess the fan argument would be a guy who jumps around a lot would be a bit of a "me first" type of player (and trouble in the locker room)? It doesn't necessarily mean "bad locker room" guy automatically (I'm sure there are always guys who want to play more). Haven't seen any real reports of it, other than perhaps some angry USC fans talking about effort and commitment, which is pretty standard these portal situations.
-
Would Dan Lanning Have Recruited These Guys?
Always interesting reflections on Colt. At the time, I think he was considered a physical outlier for the position, and worth the risk. Today, I think Oregon usually has several TE prospects that fit that mold, so it is less a huge selling point? So the calculus might be a bit different? Now, I believe Colt had left the program about five months before the combine and a couple months even further from his pro day workout at Portland State. So, maybe over that time he hadn't got himself in the best shape, I don't know? But for comparison, look at his (2014) RAS (relative athletic score) compared to Terrence Ferguson (2025), Ed Dickson (2010), and Johnny Mundt (2017): Ferguson: 9.32 out of 10 Height: 6-5.3 Weight: 247 Arm: 32.88 Hand: 9.25 Bench: 15 40: 4.63 20: 2.67 10: 1.61 Vertical: 39.00 Broad: 10.02 Lyerla: 8.51 out of 10 Height: 6-3.7 Weight: 242 ARM: 32.75 Hand: 10.25 Bench: 15 40: 4.61 20: 2.67 10: 1.61 Vertical: 39.00 Broad: 10.08 Ed Dickson: 7.51 out of 10 Height: 6-4.2 Weight: 249 Arm: 33.0 Hand: 10.75 Bench: 23 40: 4.67 20: 2.74 10: 1. 65 Vertical: 34.0 Broad: 9.07 Johnny Mundt: 6.68 out of 10 Height: 6-4.2 Weight: 243 Arm: 32.38 Hand: 9.63 Bench: 21 40: 4.61 20: 2.67 10: 1.61 Vertical: 30.0 Broad: 9.05 My suspicion is both Kenyon Sadiq and Jabari Johnson will be close to Ferguson's score (if Sadiq were about an inch taller I would say it would be a near lock); and, I'm not sure Ferguson was even thought of as a huge physical outlier for the TE position at Oregon? Some more Colt stuff. Seems like the NFL found him to be a poor route runner and largely disinterested blocker (Ryan McCrystal); but, did appreciate his athletic traits. Athleticism is elite, but measurables are below average for the position. He's shorter than most pass-catching tight ends (just under 6'4") and has relatively short arms. Routes are sloppy. He doesn't run straight routes, even when unimpeded by the defense, and his cuts are frequently rounded off. Surprisingly ineffective at fighting through linebackers trying to throw him off his route. Doesn't show great balance and sometimes lacks the awareness to even anticipate the hit. Extremely inconsistent effort as a blocker. Has moments when he gets intense and fights hard as a blocker, but also has moments when he barely even feigns interest and easily gets tossed aside. Frequently loses balance and slides off his blocks. Also tends to lunge and often whiffs on linebackers at the second level. Impressive athlete with a nice blend of size, speed and agility for the position. Has enough speed to stretch the field in certain matchups. Quick off the snap and builds speed quickly, which will give certain linebackers and safeties issues in man coverage. A matchup nightmare who can give linebackers issues with his speed, but can cause trouble for defensive backs due to his size. Demonstrates great body control and an ability to adjust to poorly placed passes. Impressive leaping ability helps to make up for his modest height and makes him a threat in jump-ball situations. A very smooth athlete who moves well and is capable of making crisp, explosive cuts, giving him elite potential as a route-runner. Elite ability after the catch, both in terms of pure speed as well as an ability to make guys miss in the open field and occasionally break some tackles. I guess the point, back around 2010, if you could find an athletic TE at Oregon with an 8.5 level RAS, it probably was more worth the gamble than today, where most TE recruits considering Oregon will be in that profile range? Take a look at 6-7 and 250 pound TE recruit Kendre Harrison, with a 6-11 wingspan and 10.5 hands might look with 4 years of strength and conditioning under his belt.
-
How Should Duck Fans Remember Willie Taggart?
One of the interesting side notes to the Taggart saga was that of the 9 December decommits that were directly tied to his leaving -- 8 four stars (7/8 ranked inside the top 260) and 1 three star -- a big portion of why the class had been ranked so highly, pretty much all ended up being very underwhelming at best and in most cases busts (given their ranking). 4 stars #114 Tre'Shaun Harrison: followed WT to FSU and was ok the two Taggart seasons for a young player, catching 37 passes in 24 games for 355 yards and 3 TDs. Returned to the NW to Oregon State where in 3 seasons and 28 games caught 90 passes for 1147 yards and 8 TDs. Many probably remember his time at OSU as a sort of roll receiver #119 Colson Yankoff: recollection he was thought of as a huge loss to the class, and possibly underrated as the #5 QB recruit in the nation. Went to the UW and washed out then to UCLA where he dabbled a bit at RB and WR, producing 303 yards of total offense in 3 seasons #150 Braden Lenzy: flipped to Notre Dame and played in 9, 7, 13, and 13 games over four years totalling 74 catches for 976 yards and 9 TDs (32 for 350 and 3 TDs as a junior being his best year). He did rush 13 times for 200 yards and 2 TDs as a rFR then only got 10 more carries for 76 yards and 0 TDs the next 3 years #157 Warren Thompson: followed WT to FSU and redshirted and caught 11 passes the next 2 years then transferred to Arkansas where he caught 31 passes over 2 years, then ended up at TCU for 19 for 246 and 2 TDs in his 6th season #222 Malcolm Lamar: spent a single redshirt year at DE at Florida State before disappearing for a couple years then surfacing at Florida Atlantic as an OL. Finally became a starter as a senior last year for the Owls #231 Isaiah Bolden: redshirted and then started one game for FSU at CB before transfering to Jackson State. Became a starter as a senior. #260 Michael Ezeike: flipped to UCLA, spent 5 years at TE, totalling 35 catches for 407 yards and 7 TDs #330 Myles Battle: spent his first two years at Old Miss at WR and had 4 catches. Switched to CB and started 4 games over two years then transfered to Utah where he started 2 games and played in all 13 Three Star #733 Johnathan King: flipped to Indiana and redshirted then had one start in 3 years. Finished his career at Alabama A&M Class also had 4 decommits after December in Devin Culp, Eli'jah Winston, Muhamed Diallo, and Teagan Quitoriano. Plus at least 7 other Taggart commits who we know washed out (Elliott, Cunningham, Jackson, A. Johnson, Randazzo, Jaramillo, J. Johnson). So, if WT stays, that's 20 right there who don't end up doing much to anything. Class could have ended "all sizzle (mostly) no steak."
-
Hmm, Looking for a Punter?
The Ducks only punted 46 times in 14 games; or, about 3.3 times per game. With likely 1.3 of those attempts being attempts to pin an opponent inside the 10, we are looking at about 2 full punts per game. Give me a guy with some experience who can get some hang time and average 42-44 ypp and all should be good. Ferguson-Robinson should be great. Getting into the weeds of JFR, the numbers are a bit interesting. 2022 63 punts 41.8 ypp (83rd) 7 punts 50+ 2023 55 punts 49.7 ypp (2nd ) 29 punts 50+ 2024 43 punts 43.5 ypp (51st) 3 punts 50+ % inside 20: 2022 3% 2023 2% 2024 37% (Went from 2 kicks inside the 20, to 1 kick, to 16 last year)
-
Your Thoughts? Which Game Will Be Tougher?
I'd pick Iowa over Washington. Iowa with a new OC seems to have found a pulse last year offensively. They jumped 60 spots in offensive F+. It only brought them to middle of the pack status; but, they actually rushed the ball pretty well last year. Their passing game only improved modestly; but, they are bringing in a QB in Mark Gronowski who won back-to-back FCS titles (and one FCS player of the year award). Obviously it is a wait and see how the jump to FBS goes; but, with over 10,000 career passing yards, he will bring experience and one might expect at least a higher floor. On defense Iowa finished #9 in defensive F+, after finishing #3 the year prior. They will be replacing 7 starters; but, their early depth chart shows 9 seniors and two juniors (all who were a part of the program last year). They have a history of usually being solid there (they haven't allowed 30 points to an opponent at home for 56 straight games dating back to early 2016. It's a bit of an apples-to-oranges kind of comparison given how the two teams play but, just for reference, Oregon over the same stretch gave up 30+ at Autzen 12 times). I'll go ahead and take the USC over Indiana. Always liked Mendoza at Cal and expect Indiana will be good again; but, Oregon should have a significant talent advantage on paper (both UI's losses last year were to top 10 blue-chip rosters in Ohio State and Notre Dame). Plus, they will be coming into Autzen. I think 30 years ago was their only visit. USC will be visiting as well; but, its a trip they have made regularly since before Autzen opened. Should be less a factor.
-
B1G Playoff Contender Schedules vs. Actual Odds?
I know, typing that scenario didn't seem quite right. How about "Oregon loses at Penn State, at Iowa, and to Minnesota" instead? Will fix it. I would be a bit surprised to see Oregon losing at Autzen in 2025. If throwing out a 9-3 regular season, at UW would seem a higher probability than at Northwestern or at Rutgers or at home to Minnesota (or to USC). UW has been pretty tough at home recently. In the last 10 UO/UW games, it looks like 5-5 (though 3-2 at Husky Stadium, 2-2 at Autzen, 0-1 neutral site). As ugly as this stat is, over the last 10 contests, Oregon has been outscored 288-330 (allowing 33 points per game yuck). Absolutely that was bad energy and needed fixed!
-
B1G Playoff Contender Schedules vs. Actual Odds?
Starting to ease into the previews; but, taking an early look I think the B1G is in for a very competitive year, with a lot of teams beating each other up. I do see as many as 11 teams who could be pretty decent and win at least 8 in the regular season. I'm thinking maybe the conference champion at 10-2, which means about 5 teams at 9-3 and another 5 at 8-4. A real wild and competitive roller coaster (with a strong OOC for the B1G, I think the math works). Not much of a gambler, but grabbed some win totals from one of the major books. Penn State 10.5 tOSU 10.5 UO 10.5 Michigan 9.5 Illinois 8.5 Indiana 8.5 Iowa 7.5 Nebraska 7.5 USC 7.5 UW 7.5 Minnesota 6.5 Wisconsin 5.5 Rutgers 5.5 UCLA 5.5 Michigan State 5.5 Maryland 4.5 Northwestern 3.5 Purdue 3.5 I am thinking I would take the UNDER for all four of the top predicted teams: Penn State, tOSU, Oregon, and Michigan. I would also add the UNDER for: UCLA and Purdue. The only OVERS that jump out are: Minnesota, Iowa, and maybe Northwestern. The other 9 teams I'd say look about right on the number. I could see something like: Penn State (10-2), Oregon (9-3), tOSU (9-3), Illinois (9-3), Indiana (9-3), Iowa (9-3). Who goes and who misses the playoff? ( For example: Penn State loses at Iowa and at Ohio State -- tOSU loses to Texas, at Michigan, and at UW or to Minnesota -- Oregon loses at Penn State, at Iowa, and to Minnesota -- Iowa loses to Minnesota, at USC, and to end the regular season at Nebraska or early at Iowa State -- Indiana loses at Penn State, at Oregon, and at Iowa -- Illinois loses at Indiana, to USC, and to tOSU)
-
How Should Duck Fans Remember Mark Helfrich?
I've always been one to argue recruiting decline sort of gets a bit exaggerated under MH. It's there but I don't put "straightforward decline in recruiting" as a top reason for MH's decline. He got a lot of kids that a lot of top programs were offering. He also had fair numbers with kids rated outside the top 400 (the more "developmental" portion of the classes) turn out ok. What I think was poor under MH was an unusually high percentage of "busts" at the very important top of his classes (Canton Kaumatule, Taj Griffin, Kirk Merrit, Malik Lovette, Jalen Brown, Tyrell Robinson, Travis Jonsen, Thomas Tyner -- for those who want to go there); and, probably an unusually high amount of "bad apples" brought in (Kirk Merrit, Tristen Wallace, Austin Maloata, Fotu Leiato, Torrodney Prevot, Darren Carrington). It could also be argued his last class (2016) was unusually poor, probably poor enough to be marked as concerning. 19 kids and 2 JCs. It only had 3 high school "four stars", Dillon Mitchell of course was very good, the highest rated commit Bryon Young didn't really impact until his senior year, and Tristen Wallace, a guy who managed to get expelled twice before completing his first year at Oregon. Other than Herbert, Dye, and possibly Breeze, not a bunch else. What I remember hearing over the MH era, was he got stuck with sort of a tough hand in recruiting with a pretty old and established staff, who no longer were willing to do much traveling and/or recruiting (traveling being more important for recruiting back then). Greatwood always got his guys; but, beyond that I had heard that Erik Chinander and at times Helf himself were forced to do much of the legwork. To the point of letting Helf go, just one year of 4-8 while giving up 41.4 points per game (126 out of 128) arguably was enough. The defensive highlight of the season was probably holding Utah to 28 points. Allowed 70 to UW, 52 to Cal, 52 to Stanford, 51 to WSU, 45 to USC, 41 to Colorado. That is after finishing 116 out of 128 the year prior. That is not so much a disturbing trend, as it is fall off a cliff. The first MH and Aliotti year (2013) was fine: 20.5 ppg allowed (I recall it was agreed after Chip left NA only wanted to hang around one more year, but wasn't he only like 60 when he left?). My last recollection is one that usually provides some bit of controversy, the name Todd Orlando. 42 year old Todd Orlando had just completed his first season at Utah State finishing #7 in the country giving up 17.1 ppg (replacing Dave Aranda who had moved to Wisconsin). That was after two solid seasons as DC at not exactly football powerhouse Florida International (actually under then HC Mario Cristobal). Orlando was considered a hot name very interested in the Oregon job. Rumors were a belief Orlando would have been a poor fit with Oregon's veteran defensive staff (among others). Now Orlando is controversial because he is most known for eventually flaming out at DC at Texas then USC. However, back then he was a rising name. His defense was strong the next year at Utah State, he moved to Houston where he had a couple good years, then had a good first year at Texas in 2017, before thing started slipping (57th in ppg in 2018 and 65th in 2019 before being fired). He was also known then to run a defense similar to what NA was running in 2013, so the switch wouldn't have been dramatic. Evidence maybe it wouldn't have been a huge "grand slam" hire; but, arguably much better than the 23.6 ppg, 37.5 ppg, and 41.4 ppg slide under DP and Hoke (not even mentioning the 296 yards and 5 TDs rushing and 538 total yards and 42 points given up in the 2015 NC game). Might have even saved MH's job.
-
Penn St Listed as a 4.5 Point Favorite Over Ducks.
Yikes, let's hope not. Since the current Beaver Stadium at Penn State was built in 1960 (in part out of reassembled remains from the old Beaver Stadium built in 1909), Penn State has never given up 45 points at home. Actually, in Penn State's 129 year football history, it has never given up 45 points to an opponent while playing at home. And I am being a bit silly. Penn State has given up 44 at home twice in its history, both recently (Nebraska in 2017 and tOSU in 2022). 🙂 Still, over 40 points may be a tough ask at Penn State. I believe in 30 out of the last 50 seasons, no opponents scored over 30 points in Beaver Stadium all season. I count 5 opponents over 40 since 1960.