AnotherOD

AIf there ever was a week to expect Indiana to come out and sleepwalk a bit, this would be it. Possibly the biggest regular season win in school history, distractions giving the head coach a huge raise, etc, etc. But I couldn't pull the trigger on that bet. With Childs being questionable and all the negative vibes surrounding their 3 game losing streak, I couldn't even recommend the -27.

I went back and watched the interception that sort of ended the game. There were over six minutes remaining and it was only 27-20. This play sort of summarizes the day for me. The Indiana DT plows into one of the B gaps and the DE loops around him stunting and fills the spot left by the DT. Harkey picks up the DT and shoves Luli back to pick up the looping DE. This should look pretty familiar to the Duck OL from practice (as the Duck D has been doing the same thing regularly this year). I'm not sure if the shove from Harkey is the usual way the OL trades rushers, but the shove is so hard it actually pushes Luli several steps and spins him (you can see he actually is all the way over to where the ball was snapped) and he is now facing Dante Moore instead of the Indiana rush. That leaves a big gap for the looping DE to run through untouched. Dante is looking for Dakorian sort of slanting in at about 8-10 yards, that might have been there without the free rushing DE. Moore almost has no way of not seeing the rusher -- if he isn't totally staring down the WR from the snap. The announcers say something like "I'm not sure who got their big paw up there on that"; but, it looks more like the defender throwing his arms up and knocking it high in the air because of a surprise reaction to a ball coming right at his chest or face. The previous 1st down play is almost as bad. WRs overloaded right, it looks like a bit of misdirection where the OL pushes all their DLs left and the play is to the right, which they all do except Harkey who gets turnstiled by his DE. Moore avoids him and steps up but as the whole OL has gone left, there is no pocket to step into. Moore gets sacked by four arriving Indiana defenders (two LB who just sit on the play, one DE who gets off a Sadiq block, and one DT who spins out of the block by the Duck RG). It looks like the WRs are there mostly to run off their defenders (and block downfield if the play gets there) and the pass is to the RB coming out of the backfield (from what I can tell); but, Harkey's man is on Moore so fast, there isn't even time for a throw (or even for the RB to get to where he is trying to go), nor anywhere for Moore to really go as Harkey's loose man prevents him from rolling or drifting right. I don't see any actual run option, and it doesn't seem like a deeper route as there is no pass protection. Misdirection, overload set, TE in motion, all for one option to try to get the RB in the flat out of the backfield? Maybe if someone else watches it they can tell me if it supposed to be something else (6:23). In the end there is an illegal shift penalty on the offense and the thing wouldn't have counted anyway. That is why I say microcosm of the day. Simple slow developing play with a lot of eye candy but not a lot of options, blown up by a missed OL block, that wouldn't have counted anyway, followed by an interception where the Duck OL "friendly fires" one of its own leaving a free rusher the QB fires the ball right at, while he is staring down a single WR.

I am going to climb out on a limb and suggest the Duck coaching staff knows this and have been trying to do it (Conerly Jr., Laloulu, maybe Luli). It just hasn't had the same success with OL as its had at other positions. It has filled in with some still reasonably rated talent but it appears the "hit rate" has been a bit low. It happens. I am pretty sure it would love it if guys like Wilson, Rogers, or Crader were so good they could play them meaningful rotation snaps right now. I am going to go out on a limb and say it has nothing to do with not understanding how important the OL is, nor not grasping what "big time" programs do, nor not trying to develop guys.

Yes, we can talk about Julian Sayin being "developed" by Ohio State, but how does that square with other recent highly rated tOSU QBs? Julian Fleming (five star #4 nationally), Kyle McCord (four star #49 nationally), Devin Brown (four star #44 nationally), Lincoln Kienholz (four star #138 nationally), Air Noland (four star #61 nationally)? If it is simply about coaching development, what went into deciding not to really develop these guys? Fleming transferred out and hasn't played and now has some legal trouble, Kyle McCord was pretty much ran out of town, Brown transferred to Cal and almost immediately lost the starting role to JKS, Kienholz is burried behind Sayin and likely will be out in January (St. Clair stays), and Noland is sitting behind LaNorris Sellers (a sophomore) at South Carolina? Shouldn't Fleming have been named starter at Penn State, McCord should never have left Ohio State, Brown should be starting at Cal, Noland at South Carolina (as Sellers is currently #48 in NCAA passing efficiency), and Kienholz really should be more "developed" than Sayin and thus their current starter? Not that you still don't want the best prospect as possible at QB; but, generally I see the position as still largely a crapshoot. With tOSU's defense looking dominant this year, Sayin may not be asked to do a lot most of the season. If indeed a game turns up where their offense needs some plays to win, I could see the possibility of of some freshman there. I guess we will see.

Former Duck and NFL OL Geoff Schwartz has said his review of the film doesn't show the giant mess on the OL that many people have purported (throw me in there too). I don't know anyone I've regularly read more qualified to break down OL film than Geoff (and while I like some of their stuff, that definitely includes Addicted to Quack). Sort of contributes a bit to a different narrative; but, it overall should be taken as a positive moving forward (and I can spoil the ending now, in a couple days ATQ will report huge error rates for the OL and pats on their backs about their "transfer portal OL effect". Obviously playing 3 younger OL who the coaches have barely trusted to put on the field this year was the stronger play). 🙄 From Schwartz: -Moore was routinely fooled by where the sim pressure was coming from. If he thought it was coming from the right it came from the left. Indiana was able to isolate their LBs on RBs in pass pro and it worked well. In previous games Moore/Stein adjusted protections but yesterday they did none of that. -Credit Indiana. Moore was never comfortable in the pocket even with plenty of clean pockets. Just never moved off his first read. Did not play well. -Not as many open guys as I expected. A few times but this is an issue against good zone defenses spanning a few seasons now (Rose Bowl). Indiana was dialed in. -OL was fine. -I know everyone is going to hate this but just the truth. Few individual breakdowns but 4 of the 6 sacks were on the RB/Moore. First play of the game OL didn't handle a twist + RT got beat late. Then on a designed rollout the RT got beat across his face. Plenty of clean pockets with chances for success. (I'll take that analysis over OL "error rates" which either intentionally or unintentionally are subject to confirmation bias from the grader, who is also writing the article)

Geoff Scwartz had some intetesting takes on X.

I see the point but in terms of this statement by McAfee? I am going to have to again say nope. His statement wasn't "against good teams Oregon's defense has allowed too many redzone trips and allows a very high conversion percentage." That probably would be an interesting stat to see. Somebody really wanting to make that argument, if they want to use it as evidence, should actually probably do the work and produce the stat. I'm curious too but I don't particularly want to do the work and look the number up right now either. What is a good team, 10 wins in a season? Since Lanning arrived: Georgia (22), Wash (22), Utah (22), Oregon State (22), Wash (23), Wash 2 (23), Liberty (23), Boise State (23), Ohio State (23), Illinois (23), Penn State (23), Ohio State 2 (23), and Indiana (24). So redzone trips per game allowed and scoring percentage from Oregon. Then do at least 3-5 other top teams and 10-15 games each against 10 win teams and produce a comparable number, and I think we have a great discussion. Instead it was something to the effect of, "I found a little stat, so far Oregon has allowed 100% of its redzone attempts to score, so I think that's a sign Oregon will lose." Well, Indiana had given the exact same number. So, pointing out Oregon is giving up 100% scoring in the redzone is smart and a huge key but Indiana giving up 100% scoring in the redzone isn't a key stat that matters? I see that as a very odd interpretation. It isn't even very logical. So far both team have kept team out of the redzone, but when both teams have allowed teams in there, they each have allowed 100% scoring, so one team will probably lose because of that but the other team is fine? The good news? Finally, after 6 games Indiana got its first (and still only) redzone stop of the season when Sappington doinked a short FG. So, based on a bad FG kick, we probably have a new point of data to suggest really anything about Indiana's defense? I'd like the point and if someone wants to do the work I am here for it. The way McAfee did it is the "I don't actually care enough" garage sale/low rent version of the same thing.

Indiana did a great job with pressure. OL was a concern and I don't this kind of game was outside the realm of possibility. First time I've noticed some flashes of UCLA from Dante. 41 yards of offense before garbage time in the second half? Seems like he was feeling pressure at the snap and well, looked a bit panicked. Gun shy yes, but worse. In the game thread I joked I blame Chip. Maybe I've gotten a bit spoiled with Nix and Gabriel? Got the pick 6 playing at home with momentum yet the game never shifted. I would have liked to have stuck with Davison at RB. Good thing Ohio State showed us a loss here doesn't mean too much. The OL though. It's a veteran group (and should be trending the other way).

A lot of empty seats at Michigan State trailing 38-13 to UCLA. They just added 6 (missed PAT) after UCLA put up 38 straight.

Old Miss not looking too excited about being #5. One has to think they pull away but WSU hanging around.

I always think about that horrible McAfee "trial" antivirus you have to immediately remove when cleaning up a "non tech savvy" family member or friend's pc: "Your pc is infected." "Did you know your pc is infected?" "Aren't you going to do something?" "C'mon man, can't you see you are infected!" "How many times do I need to tell you that you are infected?" 🙂

Immediately as well, I thought, wait, how many red zone trips have the Duck defense faced this year so far? Went to the NCAA site but the search query comes back "No stats available." So had to dig elsewhere. Probably some intern tasked with finding a stat for McAfee to look well informed, when the intern really didn't really have the full knowledge to interpret the number? McAfee didn't bother to look further either; but, you know, entertainer and all. Looking else where, you find: Redzone defense scoring conversions allowed: #127 (tie) Indiana 100% #127 (tie) Oregon 100% #127 (tie) Missouri 100% #127 (tie) Utah 100% #127 (tie) Utah State 100% #127 (tie) Oregon State 100% #127 (tie) Virginia Tech 100% #127 (tie) South Alabama 100% #127 (tie) Rice 100% #127 (tie) Charlotte 100% However, fewest redzone scoring attempts per game allowed: #1 Indiana: 0.8 #2 (tie) Oregon: 1.3 #2 (tie) Utah: 1.3 #4 Oklahoma 1.5 I would say this would be more the proper way to present this stat? I mean, why single out it as a negative for Oregon when Indiana has the exact same number and rating?

"Indiana did win its last game played against Oregon; Oregon's 24 to 30 loss to Indiana in 2004 was authored by Indiana coach Gerry DiNardo." That odd 2004 Indiana game (even through the 4-8 Helfrich cave in, Bellotti's 2004 "lost" season, and the 1996 "Stubler experiment") remains one of only two losses by Oregon in Autzen in the last 30 years to teams that finished with a losing record. 2004 Indiana (3-8): 24-30 1996 UCLA (5-6): 22-41 The Indiana story was primarily 7 Oregon turnovers. UCLA 1996 was right in the middle of five straight losses in the middle of the season as teams were running wild on the Duck D. UCLA outgained Oregon in rushing 303 yards to 45 yards (with Oregon missing starting RB Saladin McCullough that day).

Much like Conerly Jr. last year, Moore is young enough to return for another season and still only be 22 when drafted, so with NIL, arguably there doesn't need to be quite as big a rush to the NFL. Two old Pac-12 guys usually come up as "cautionary tales" though. 🤷‍♂️ RB Bryce Love after rushing for 2,100 yards and finishing second in the Heisman, returned to Stanford and had a pair of ACL injuries and fell to the forth round and never had an NFL carry. USC's Matt Barkley, who was thought to be a first round lock in 2011, returned to USC as a possible Heisman favorite and the team dropped to 7-5 and he got a shoulder injury and missed the ND game, Sun Bowl, and NFL combine. Fell to the forth round. Moved around as a backup QB through several NFL cities, playing in 20 games with 7 starts between 2013-2023.

The odd thing is they probably should be 3-3, with three very winnable games left in Sam Houston, Lafayette, and Tulsa. They scored with 1:19 left to lead Fresno State 27-26. They dominated the stats (528 yards to 318 and 30 first downs to 15). The game included six botched special team snaps that led in part to 2 missed PATs and a missed FG. Trailed App State 27-21 in the 4th. Threw an interception in the endzone, got the ball back and drove down to 1st and goal from the App State 3 with 1:58 left. Got stuffed on 4 straight runs (one run initially ruled a TD and reversed). Still got a safety and free kick which they drove down to the App State 25 before throwing a game sealing pick. OSU won the stats again (456 to 354 and 27 FDs to 18). Led Houston by 14 in the 4th quarter. Drove down for a long FG attempt to win with 0:05 on the clock and had it blocked, lost in OT. Won the stats again (though closer: 390 to 352 and 22 to 17). If they managed 3-3, their remaining schedule is (Sagarin): Wake Forest: #75 Layfayette: #188 WSU: #99 Sam Houston: #194 @ Tulsa: #160 @ WSU: #99 What should have been a pretty cozy walk to at least something like 7-5 may well end up something like 2-10.

Not to be a contrarian (and not super holding onto this); but, I'm sorta liking what we are seeing so far (staying mostly status quo). I don't see a huge need to rush Hill/Davison into a lead 20+ combined carries per game (currently they are getting about 10). Davison just needs to keep doing what he has been doing (and he does have like 7 carries of 6+ yards so it isn't all just the super situational short yardage runs). Hill has been amazing as a home run hitter, with a crazy explosive run rate (15 or more yards) of 27.5%. Out of his 26 carries, 9 have gone for 10+ (66, 28, 24, 24, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11). However 10 of his carries (38%) have gone for 3 or less yards (3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 0, 0, -1, -1, and -3). Giving him more carries likely won't increase his explosive rate (as it is about as high as you are going to get); and, we probably see at this stage of his young career more of the tougher yardage runs until he grows into that true #1. Let's say the Ducks play 15 games (we are going to win at least one playoff game this year!). If the rotation is tightened up just a bit, leaning maybe alittle more into Hill/Davidson; and, Hill ends up with a 700 yard season, 600 for Limar, 600 for Whittington, 300 for Davidson, Moore is on pace for at least 300, and the backs that get the rest of the carries (Harris, Riggs, what Hughes has already given, Moga, plus any WR or TE runs) total 400 (I think realistic), that's 2900 total rushing yards. The last 3 years Oregon has rushed for 2211 yards (14g in 2024), 2583 yards (14g in 2023), and 2805 yards (13g in 2022). Last year was down to 4.6 ypc. Stick with what the staff is doing (fresh legs) I could see it back to around 2023's 6.2 ypc. It currently at 6.3 ypc. Probably needs to be noted, while the NCAA team statistics are still working themselves out to closer to where they will finish due to wildly different OOC scheduling -- it still is interesting to see Oregon's 4 FBS opponents are averaging 88th in rush defense (Montana State is #13 FCS). Currently 6 out of Oregon's 7 remaining scheduled opponents are top 30 in rush defense. Hard to predict what exactly that means but I could see an argument for experienced backs helping.

Penn State was pretty crazy today. Thought about them a bit and I came to one major conclusion at least on offense, they really, really miss Tyler Warren. It's seems like stretch that a TE (who actually was replaced by what is considered a pretty good player) could mess up an offense that much; but, one of those loveable thing about the college game, sometimes one player (all the key drive saving plays, all the total production he provided and all the attention he demanded from defenses) can sometimes make that much of a difference. Took me back to Oregon and 1998. Oregon's offense was tearing it up. Rueben Droughns was averaging 7.4 ypc and 165 ypg. Oregon was 60/40 run/pass and scoring 48.5 ppg. In those first 6 games Oregon rushing as a whole was 256 carries for 1445 yards @ 5.64 ypc. After Droughns left, Oregon could no longer run the ball. Not really at all. I think Derien Latimer took over (as Ho-Ching checked out about the same time as RD and he was sitting at only 3.6 ypc). Oregon did try to continue to run the ball and it was just different. Three post-Drougns games were 32 carries for 64 yards, 32 carries for 61 yards, and 38 carries for 31 yards. Oregon eventually had to lean into the pass and turned into 49/51 run/pass. In the last 6 games Oregon managed to salvage 30.2 ppg; but, rushing those games was 219 carries for 494 yards @ 2.26 ypg). 1445 rushing yards in the first six games, 494 rushing yards in the last 6 games and 48.5 ppg to 30.2 ppg just switch out the RB. Not the same as the Penn State thing I know; but, it did make me think of that season.

Defense getting it done.

Odd choice there.

It seems about right I think? NFL betting obviously is known to give the home team 3. I have read home field in college is usually viewed different, with 3 being the baseline but the actual number being between 2 and 6 points. Way back in the day when I used to always grab it (maybe 1998-2008) Phil Steele on top of each team page put that number (if anyone had a good idea what that number actually was, it was probably Phil). Autzen was usually around a 6 point home edge. I'd imagine Penn State has a similar home field number. I haven't exactly read a number given to the development of teams traveling across the whole country for a regular conference game; but, consensus seems to be it's incorporated. Let's say an additional 2.0 points West to East and 1.5 points East to West. Maybe it is more a "situational factor" in pro lines; but, there has to be something greater recognizing Oregon or USC traveling to Penn State is just different than Rutgers or Maryland traveling to Penn State for college kids. So, you figure if both teams travel equal distances and play at a neutral field it would be Oregon maybe about -4.5 (currently PSU -3.5 favorite but without getting the 6 + 2 point bump). Maybe a funny way to look at it but Oregon does appear a neutral site favorite 🤷‍♂️

I have read in a couple places, the going rate to get a five star to visit is $10,000 (if the staff wants an in-person opportunity to steal them). I believe individual recruit's official visits are now unlimited as long as they remain one each per school. If a recruit visits and commits to a place (like Oregon) and shuts it down, he is most likely leaving some large bags on the table. Plus skipping out on several all-expenses paid lavish weekends (and the chance to see some games). 🤷‍♂️ It's good to be a five-star.

"The Ducks have been doing that and it might be just what they need. Adding a body but not committing a body." Seems like a work in progress? I see Theineman with 16 total tackles so far in 4 games. Mostly it seems like his tackles have been more in his traditional role rather than crashing the box (but I could be wrong, and I do think he has been very good). Singleton, Allen, and Allar had 29 carries for 283 yards and 2 TDs at 9.8 yards per carry. The Duck offense won the day; but, it put up 45 and I don't think PSU has ever given up 45 at home (so a repeat offensive performance would indeed be historical). I was thinking about another big body in the box and maybe sometimes a safety crashing. If the defense slows the run and makes Allar to complete 25+ passes and make maybe 8-10 tough throws (without Warren to throw to), and your offense isn't able to save the day, maybe you feel ok tipping your hat and thinking about a rematch?

In the regular season last year the Duck front was only described as being "pushed off the ball" a single time I saw, against Penn State. Penn State returns three of its best starters from that game, gets back a starting RT who was lost for the season in game 10 who is now a RG, in large because the guy who replaced him is returning at RT after being so good in the playoffs he won the spot. They also appear to have a strong blocker at TE and some OL depth. Plus, two future NFL RBs. Their OL pushed the Duck DL in part through effective use of double teams, and often got bodies comfortably into the LBs. If somebody with a more accomplished eye would like to comment that would be appreciated; but, at least to my eye, making moves to "load the box" has been a step the Duck D has largely been reluctant to regularly commit to. I'd like to think steps like "better run fits", "improved eye discipline", etc, etc fixes the gap from last year but don't know it will prove that simple. Overwhelming an opponent with really good players and taking an easy 4+ yards all day I won't say is undefeated (but goes a long way). Taking out a sack and a kneel down, I think 20 of PSU's 32 rushes last year went for 4 or more yards, including 10 plays of 10 or more yards

Beavs at 106 yards offense at just about 4.0 yards per play. 3 completions. Arguably didn't necessarly look super duper but fair results.

Back in the day when RBs were king, Willhite was thought to potentially be a Hershal Walker, Marcus Allen, Eric Dickerson level recruit. He was named the HS player of the year over the likes of Marcus Dupree and Bo Jackson. Some services, back in the Prepstar, Superprep, Parade days had him #1 not just at RB but overall. Shocked the college football world flipping to Oregon on signing day. He had run a 10.5 100 meter and 20.8 200 meter in high school and apparently had dreams of running in the 1984 Olympics in LA, planning to pursue both football and track. Track was not near as big at UW and apparently there was some question whether Don James would really allow Willhite out of Spring practice to fully participate. Stories go when there were rumors Willhite was wavering on his UW committment, the Huskies sent their top recruiter down to Sacramento to lock things up on LOI day (Al Roberts) and he arrived at 7am to a Duck assistant coach (Jim Skipper) already there. Roberts reported asked Skipper why he was there and Skipper told him "He never told me no". Anyway, the short version of the rest of the story is he badly injured his hamstring as a high school senior running track and reinjured it at the opening of his first camp. Couldn't run for months and missed both his freshman football and track season. From there, battled injuries, struggled with "conditioning", and the dreaded "attitude" questions. Never recovered his speed with a top 10.92 100 meter time before leaving track, and ended up a fullback at Oregon, playing more finally as a senior where Brooks himself remarked he "had become a pretty good fullback for our team". Ended up his Oregon career with 182 carries for 731 yards (4.0) and 2 TDs. I think I put Willhite at the top because it was during a period of Oregon football I guess is sometimes referred to as "the suffering" from about 1967 to the Independence Bowl in 1989. Oregon went 89-146-6 over the period and without a bowl. The decade prior they had gone 59-38-5 with a Sun and Liberty Bowl. Willhite in 1982 was supposed to be the level of recruit that was going to turn things around. Rich Brooks famously was quoted during a preseason press session in 1987 ending his period of questions with, "Today is the first time in six years I haven't had a Kevin Willhite question." (After the laughter apparently died down, Rich went on to say, "I'm here to tell you Kevin Willhite is a graduate of the University of Oregon and I'm proud of that. He was not a total failure like some writers have said in the past several years." The Willhite saga was a pretty huge deal.)