GeotechDuck

Is there anyone in the portal that can shoot 40% from three? If so, we should offer them the world.

I love Coach Altman and will support him for as long as he is at Oregon, but he is the guy that recruited all these players that are limited on the offensive side of the ball. You can't be surprised when support is down if you have a team that struggles to score 60 points a game, has the worst 3-point shooting percentage since 1999, and leads the Pac-12 in roster turnover each year. Especially when you have had the kind of success that Altman has had with this program over the past 10+ years. He can be upset all he wants, but he set the bar and is now failing to meet it. For the record, I am 100% on board with Altman staying for as long as he wants. He has earned it and I think he has the ability to fix this.

The point of bad offense and even worse shooting should not be overlooked. Did we really expect anything different this year, considering the last two recruiting cycles? Oregon has consistently brought in below average shooters at the guard and small forward position. Here is what our guard / small forward three point shooting percentages were before they joined Oregon: Guerrier was 26% at Syracuse, Soares was 34% at a junior college, Couisnard was 30% at South Carolina (and an even more tragic 37% from the floor), Barthelemy was 33% at Colorado, and Rigsby was 37% at a junior college. Williams was actually decent at 43%, but somehow he couldn't get on the floor all year. I have no idea how he hit that percentage, considering his shot has no arch and no rotation. Bottom line - We have a bunch of below average college shooters and need some significant turnover at the guard and small forward position if Oregon wants to try and make a run at the tournament next year. Tracey is a good start, shooting 43% from three.

Wow...that was unexpected. Nice job Ducks!

Serious question - why not? The BIG already got what they wanted...payday, access to LA recruiting, etc. What benefit does the BIG have to make things easier on USC and UCLA? I would almost argue the opposite. The more that USC and UCLA struggle, the bigger benefit to the existing BIG schools.

That was an interesting read. Thank you for sharing!

Oregon is 9-0 vs. the BIG since 2017 if you include the incoming LA schools in that group.

Football is tough enough as it is. Just look at USC's record when playing at Notre Dame in the eastern time zone. They have not won in South Bend in the past 12 years. Their last win in South Bend was in 2011. To your point, it is going to even more difficult for basketball and some Olympic sports may not even be sustainable. It was a HUGE mistake for UCLA and USC not to insist on having at least 4 teams to create a west coast pod and now they have lost all their leverage. Getting my popcorn ready.

That was a great article. Thank you for posting. This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I don't think the BIG invite will come for any of the remaining PAC-10 schools. I believe that Warren wanted to get to 20 teams, but the BIG school presidents saw an opportunity and they are not stupid. Getting the LA market and big pay days for their existing member schools was a no brainer for everyone (Warren, Presidents, FOX, etc). The BIG presidents know that adding those two teams without additional west coast travel partners is a HUGE benefit for all of the existing BIG member schools. What is their incentive to vote to add more west coast schools at this point? The more difficult you make the transition for USC and UCLA, the bigger benefit there is for each of the existing member schools. Take a look at the winning percentage of NFL teams on the west coast that travel to play east coast games. There is a clear disadvantage that has been documented for years. Now add in the fact that these are college kids (not professionals) with classes and the fact that the LA schools don't have a west coast conference like NFL teams do. Yikes! If Oregon was able to go into LA and dominate recruiting for the past 12 years, think about what tOSU, Michigan and Penn State are going to be able to do there. Now imagine that the transition is tough due increased travel on top of a a whole host of other issues. Teams like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State are going to be licking their chops. The existing BIG member schools want this transition to be as difficult as possible! Someone posted an article about yearly partnerships with UCLA, tOSU, Michigan, and USC. It makes perfect sense. Michigan and tOSU want to play in LA every other year so they can raid the LA recruiting grounds. The funny thing is that USC and UCLA got used and they don't even know it yet. What a terrible decision to make that jump without insisting on some west coast partners.

That seems like a smart idea.

@Tandaian - Nice update! So it looks like we are in good position for the 3-way tie as well. @Penn Duck - Thank you for all the information you post for us to read! I just got confused when I read the 247 article, which states "In short, Oregon needs to win out and see either ASU get swept by the LA schools or lose at UCLA." Why does Oregon need to win out? I am probably missing something, but here is what I am thinking: If Oregon splits and ASU gets swept, both team finish 11-9. The tie breaker is then record against the highest rated team, correct? Both would be 0-2 against UCLA, so it moves to AZ. Both are 1-1 against AZ, so it moves to USC. Oregon would be 1-0 and ASU would be 0-2 USC. Tie breaker goes to Oregon. Seems like Oregon would get the 4 seed with a split and ASU getting swept. Am I missing something?

If ASU gets swept by the LA schools and Oregon splits with Cal and Stanford, does Oregon not get the 4 seed? ASU and Oregon would both be 11-9 in that case. Oregon should have the tie breaker over ASU in that case with a win against USC. Am I missing something? Also, what happens in that case if Utah beats Colorado? Now you have three teams that are 11-9.

I was in the "do anything to save the conference" group, but I think I am moving more towards this way of thinking. I don't see how adding SMU, Fresno, Boise, UNLV, Tulane, and/or SDSU is a long-term solution. What happens when those schools are up for a full share in the next media rights window? Everyone in the conference is going to take a smaller piece of the pie and the PAC gets further behind? I am leaning towards a move to the Big-12 under the right circumstances. Would the Big-12 be willing to add Oregon and Washington with an escape clause in the GOR if the BIG comes calling? Without Oregon and Washington, the PAC-10 crumbles and the four corner schools all head to the Big-12. Now the Big-12 has was they want - the 4 corner school under a GOR, plus they get Oregon (national brand) and Washington (Seattle Market) until the BIG comes calling. If the BIG never comes calling, they have probably secured themselves as the 3rd best conference in football and the best conference in college basketball....by a mile.

It is amazing the amount of mistakes the conference has made in the last 13 years. I saw this timeline on social media. The conference had so many opportunities to take advantage and stay relevant. Any of these moves probably would have saved the conference. Jan 2010: The Conference of Champions, highly respected and in a position of power announces the formation of expansion committee Sept 2010: Narrowly miss on signing TX, OU, TX Tech, OK St, and A&M when A&M backs out at the 11th hour Sept 2011: Decline to accept TX into the Pac-12 due to LHN Sept 2011: Reject OU & OK State's application for admission w/o TX Aug 2021: Decline to extend invitations to TCU, Baylor, & TX Tech after the schools asked for a lifeline. June 2022: USC & UCLA announce they're leaving the Pac-12 and the conference is blindsided. Feb 2023: Dragging their feet but needing to invite G5s San Diego St & SMU to keep the conference alive for a few more years.

Altman just missed the past two years recruiting guards and this team is severely limited offensively. You can't put all the blame on Richardson when Barth, Rigsby, and Soares go 3 for 21 from the floor. Don't get me wrong, as I am not defending Richardson's play, but I understand what he was trying to do last night. He was getting the ball to his teammates at the soft spots in the zone and getting good looks for them. However, as a 5th year PG, you cannot site back and allow your teammates to just shoot you out of the game with the entire season on the line. At some point, you have to get more aggressive and take control of the game. On top of that, it is not like Oregon's guards are good shooters and just had a night off. This has been going on all season. I see a lot of people on social media calling for Richardson to be benched. Which one of these guards are you giving his minutes to? Rigsby shoots 39% from the floor and 27% from three Soares shoots 37% from the floor and 25% from three Williams has 14 total baskets in 131 minutes of playing time and shoots 0% from three Barthelemy is a little better at 41% from the floor and 35% from three, but is a liability on defense The fact is that Richardson and Cousinard are the only guards on the roster that have the ability to score the ball with some consistency while playing decent defense. If you are Altman, there is no option to bench them. Soares is incredibly limited on the offensive end, but is getting minutes because of his defense, his hustle and ability to actually make some FTs. It's not like you could run Soares out there with Rigsby and Williams and have any success in a 1/2 court offense.

I think the dollars would be there for Oregon (National) Washington (Seattle) and possibly the Arizona (Phoenix) schools. Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the country now. The Big-12 has an escalation cause in their new GOR that allows for further expansion. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Yeah...the longer this goes, the more likely that this thing falls apart. It is pretty clear that the dollars are not lining up right now, or this would have been done already. Now the conference is grasping at straws (SMU and SDSU) to try and get the numbers up into the ballpark of what Big-12 just signed. Maybe you can get a short term fix by adding those two schools (and possibly some others), giving them a partial share, and funneling some portion of the money to the existing members. However, that is a short-term solution that is likely going to create problems down the road when the new schools are up for full shares. This is my opinion and purely speculation, but my guess is that the current offer was around $25M per school and the conference is now looking at alternative ways to try and get that number closer to $32M, so they don't lose a bunch of schools to the Big-12. The problem is that they are not a lot of good options left when you are the last one at the table trying to make moves. Let's hope GK is creative and can find a way to keep this thing together for a few more years. Hopefully Oregon is continuing to weigh all their options because I don't see a favorable outcome in the long term.

Modifying my post as it appears you are correct. Teams can jump after the next media deal expires.

This is a good take and it is already happening. The PAC is going to allow USC and UCLA to stay in conference for a few sports, such as men's and women's beach volleyball. If I was the PAC-12 Commissioner, I would have told them to pound sand and to play their beach volleyball games in Piscataway, NJ in December, but that is probably why I am not in charge.

I agree and think it was a mistake by the two leagues to not look at merging these past 2 years. That was a huge missed opportunity. The BIG-12 GOR is $100M per school, outside of the media rights deal. IIRC, if you want out at any time, you now have to come up with $100M.

If UA or ASU jumped, it would be interesting to see if UO and UW would make a play for the BIG-12 or if they would try and stay put. That's a HUGE decision. Big-12 buyout is $100M now, so you are likely giving up the BIG dream. But if you stay and the BIG invite never comes.....Yikes!

I have seen this movie before. Remember when John Marinatto and the Big East issued a statement about the Big East members being "committed" right before the conference collapsed? Buckle up! Commissioner John Marinatto says schools committed to Big East WWW.ESPN.COM Big East commissioner John Marinatto says all the members of his conference are committed to staying together.

Yeah....you are probably right. I think I am just a little frustrated. There were so many opportunities to make this a premier conference over the past 10 years and the conference totally blew it. Now Oregon is left to suffer the consequences.

I am afraid the PAC-12 is past a point of no return. It has been one mistake after another: 1) Not closing the deal with Texas / OU in the first round of expansion. 2) Not getting a deal done with DirectTV for the PAC-12 channels. 3) In a position of power with the BIG-12 when Texas and OU announce their departure. Pac-12 sits on their hands and does nothing. 4) Blindsided by the LA schools' departure to the BIG. 5) Once again sit on their hands and let the BIG-12 jump the line on the media rights deal. Now they are looking at SMU to save the conference? LOL! SMU is ranked as the 5th most watched school in it's own TV market and isn't ranked in the Top 85 schools in the country for viewership. Too late! The Pac-12 had tons of options over the past 10 years and elected to sit and do nothing. I hate to be negative, but the Arizona schools are going to leave when they finally realize the dollars are going to be lower than the BIG-12 and that they are going to be stuck on a streaming platform. I fully expect this conference to collapse within the next six months.

Considering the Arizona schools are actually a better fit with the BIG-12 anyways, I think we are pretty close to the end of the line. ASU is already pissed off about having most of the content on streaming. Now the dollars are not coming in on top of it. If the PAC-12 cannot get a media deal that is on par with the current BIG-12 deal, I fully expect the two AZ teams to jump ship in the next month or two. The Pac-12 continues to make the same mistake over and over again. Sitting on your hands DOES NOT work.