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Everything posted by Tandaian
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The company/entity that is paying the money decides if the morality clause is violated. I'm guessing with young men/women, they are designed to be easily violated. Why pay when you can save money if things don't turn out?
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Ohio State cancels their 2024/2025 games with Washington because it sounds like they will play either at USC or UCLA in 2024. They don't want two west coast trips in the same season. Are you kidding me? USC and UCLA will have to make the Midwest trip at least 4 times a year. USC and UCLA, I hope you like your money because you aren't going to get an equal schedule.
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Pac 12 schools hopping to B12 isn't as simple as people may think. The new B12 deal brings each school 31.7 million. I'm not going to assume every Pac 12 school will bring that to the table solo or in combination with a partner school. There is diminishing returns when adding more schools. Essentially, each TV station can have up to 4 football games on any given Saturday. More schools does equal more inventory and more possible combinations of good games, but there does become a time there is too much and they can't do anything with the inventory. Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA are considered "blue blood" schools in football or basketball. It helps USC and UCLA also have the LA TV market. Those 4 schools made sense to add to a conference. I don't feel like any of the remaining Pac 12 or Big 12 schools can be considered in that category.
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Menacing, unlawful use of a weapon and coercion are the charges. I'm not sure somebody can explain away all those charges.
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7. USC Trojans Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4 Initial SP+ rank: 10 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 19% Biggest variable: Duh -- defense. In six seasons as a head coach, Lincoln Riley has never produced an offensive SP+ ranking worse than fifth. He also has produced only one defensive SP+ ranking better than 63rd. (In 2022, the Trojans were first and 87th, respectively.) With Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams and what appears to be another good skill corps returning, it's safe to say USC will again be elite offensively. But Riley and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch bear a significant burden of proof when it comes to stopping opponents. Can experience and a truckload of transfers reverse a dreadful defensive reputation? 9. Oregon Ducks Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 8-4 Initial SP+ rank: 8 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 23% Biggest variable: Offensive line. Bo Nix was one of the stories of 2022, throwing for nearly 3,600 yards and 30 touchdowns after his transfer from Auburn. With most of his skill corps returning, and with an iffy defense returning enough experience to project improvement, there's a lot to like about the Ducks as a contender in a suddenly loaded Pac-12. But Nix will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Will Stein, formerly of UTSA), and he'll be protected by an offensive line replacing four starters. If it holds up, Oregon is a top-10 team. But what if it doesn't? 11. Washington Huskies Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5 Initial SP+ rank: 16 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 13% Biggest variable: Defensive efficiency. The third of six potential Pac-12 contenders on the list, the Huskies surged from 4-8 to 11-2 in Kalen DeBoer's first season as head coach. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 4,641 yards and 31 touchdowns and elected to return to Seattle to once again pair up with the dynamite receiver duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. The defense was merely solid, however, attempting a bend-don't-break approach but bending way too much. Playmakers like Bralen Trice and Tuli Letuligasenoa do return, but the Huskies need to do much better at knocking opponents off schedule. 13. Utah Utes Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 7-5 Initial SP+ rank: 13 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 7% Biggest variable: Big plays (same as always). The announced return of quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe, among others, gave Kyle Whittingham's Utes a shot in the arm in their pursuit for a third straight conference title. But your margin for error is always iffy when you lose the big-play battle, and that has long been an issue for Utah. They ranked 104th in marginal explosiveness on offense and 131st on defense. They're as physical and efficient as ever, but in a loaded conference race, now would be a great time to gain control over the gashes. 17. Oregon State Beavers Ceiling: 10-2 | Floor: 6-6 Initial SP+ rank: 31 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 4% Biggest variable: DJ U. Jonathan Smith's Beavers leaped from 89th to 16th in defensive SP+ (and, consequently, from 7-6 to 10-3) last year and should have the pieces to at least threaten another top-30 performance on that side of the ball. But injuries and iffy play at quarterback held them back -- they averaged just 17 points per game with eight interceptions and no TD passes in three losses. Will Clemson quarterback transfer DJ Uiagalelei turn around both his career and OSU's offensive trajectory with a move out west? If so, this might be a five-team Pac-12 title race. 23. Texas Tech Red Raiders Ceiling: 9-3 | Floor: 5-7 Initial SP+ rank: 35 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 1% Biggest variable: Defense, as always. In the past 13 years, Texas Tech has never finished in the defensive SP+ top 60 and has only once topped 78th. Last year: 82nd. Joey McGuire's first season in charge was exciting -- Tech beat both Texas and Oklahoma on the way to its first eight-win season in nine years -- and we're seeing some "sleeper Big 12 contender?" buzz after a solid batch of super seniors (including quarterback Tyler Shough) announced their returns. The defense is experienced, but unless experience translates into a top-50ish performance, the buzz will likely be for naught. UCLA Bruins Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5 Initial SP+ rank: 21 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 12% Biggest variable: Newbies. The Bruins won 17 games in 2021-22, but we seem to be writing them off a bit in 2023 after the departures of seven offensive starters, including QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet. But Chip Kelly has worked the transfer portal aggressively in 2023, bringing in seven potential starters on offense, plus a few on defense as well. This will be a new but experienced team this fall, and if the chemistry experiment succeeds, they have more than enough talent to make this a ... five-way Pac-12 race? Six-way? Eight-way? What number are we up to now?
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The era of QBs sitting in the pocket and not rushing is pretty much over. However, QBs have to be smart when they do run. I didn't bother trying to see if these were scrambles or designed runs, but as you can see the quarterbacks below were running no less than 3 times per game and up to 9 times per game. With Oregon's offense, Nix has to run a few times a game, so it has the appearance he will run, and the defense has to account for it. Remember when Herbert was playing and he never ran the ball, but Oregon was still running the zone read? The defense keyed on the RB every time. Justin Fields Lamar Jackson Josh Allen Jalen Hurts Daniel Jones Marcus Mariota Kyler Murray Geno Smith Patrick Mahomes Justin Herbert Rushes 160 112 124 165 120 85 67 68 61 57 Yards 1143 764 762 760 708 438 418 366 358 147 YPC 7.1 6.8 6.1 4.6 5.9 5.2 6.2 5.4 5.9 2.7
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Utah has 25,000 undergraduate students. SMU has 7,000. I guess, SMU and Colorado can be travel partners and Utah and SDSU could be travel partners. If Amazon and ESPN say we need SMU, whatever they are the school that screwed with the travel. I'm not a fan of adding them, but if it is a must from the TV partners....
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Notre Dame is only Independent in football.
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Streaming Games: Rough Waters or Gently Down the Stream?
Tandaian replied to Jon Joseph's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
3 of 4 corner teams come from bigger TV markets than half the new B12, so it could pencil out they could bring in on average 37 mil. However, actual eyes watching football games, they are below almost all of the B12. ASU/Phx TV market 11th Arizona/Tuscon TV market 64th Colorado/Denver TV market 16th Utah/SLC TV market 30th TCU/Dallas 5th Houston 8th UCF/Orlando 17th Kansas/Kansas City 23rd BYU/SLC 30th Cincinnati 36th -
We'd need a ton of extra money from Amazon and ESPN. Bringing in 6 new schools means we need to bring in an additional 210 million (6 X 35 mil) when those 6 schools would become full members of the Pac 12. No school is going to join the Pac conference and continually be paid less. It wasn't until year 3 Utah got a full share of the media rights. I'm all for grabbing schools, but if Amazon and ESPN don't average the pay as much as the B12, does it make sense? TV markets/Stadium size/Undergraduate Dallas Fort Worth #5 32,000/expanding to 45,000 6,908 San Diego #27 35,000 33,708 San Antonio #31 36,582/Can be 64,000 29,801 Las Vegas #40 36,000 25,869 New Orleans #50 30,000 14,669 That doesn't really excite me.
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Streaming Games: Rough Waters or Gently Down the Stream?
Tandaian replied to Jon Joseph's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Streaming sports is not speculative, it is nearly the norm. ESPN/ABC, FOX/Foxsports, and CBS/TNT/TBS/CBS Sports all stream live sporting events. A few years ago, me and some buddies rented a house in Lincoln City for the first week of March Madness and we had 2 TVs and 2 laptops all showing different games all because of streaming. I wouldn't go 100% for streaming, but I would be willing to go 60% cable and 40% streaming to bring in more money to the Pac conference media deal. If you are a good team, people will seek out to watch you. Is it going to suck for CAL football, absolutely. I would definitely rather be the 1st with Amazon, so we have that relationship. -
How does SMU, with undergraduate class of under 7000, have a large alumni base? The TV networks don't only look at the media market, they also look at actual TV numbers. SMU doesn't have the TV numbers. Could they, if they moved up to a P5 conference, I suppose, but can you count on it? I wouldn't count on it. My opinion is bring in only San Diego St. They hardly currently pan out financial wise, but they are close enough to LA and they do seem to want to spend money to be relevant. Move them to the Pac conference and give them 5 years like Utah and I think they will be on par with the rest of the league in football and basketball, which are the sports the TV deals care about.
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What Are Your REALISTIC Expectations for Next Year?
Tandaian replied to a topic in Our Beloved Ducks
I think the Pac 12 is returning a lot of talented QBs, but maybe only Williams will last past their NFL rookie contract. If Risen, Nix and Penix were for sure NFL caliber QBs, they would have left for the NFL. Yes, there are some QBs with for sure NFL talent that come back when they could go, but it isn't those 3 QBs. Maybe, I'm wrong and all three play 10+ years in the NFL. -
BREAKING: Adrian Klemm Leaves Ducks For New England Patriots
Tandaian replied to Babyjesus615's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
I didn't think about it at the time, but it usually is odd for coach to make a lateral move from the NFL to college. Klemm was the offensive line coach for the Steelers in 2021. -
Mario Lost His OC, and now his Defensive Coordinator Too?
Tandaian replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
A 10-year 80 mil contract will make it hard for Miami to walk away this early. I'm not sure if there is a buyout or if it was 100% guaranteed. I feel like Miami is on the hook for the full 80 mil. -
Streaming Games: Rough Waters or Gently Down the Stream?
Tandaian replied to Jon Joseph's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Remember, TV people are not in business to bring in people over the age of 40. They want young viewers. 99% of the people under age 40 will know how to find games on Amazon Prime. They also have the internet to support streaming without buffering. -
Did you watch any Liberty games last year? Crystal Dangerfield played a ton of PG for the Liberty and Sabrina was the SG. Everything worked out fine for Sabrina. I think Sabrina, Vandersloot, Stewart and Jones will figure it out. Will there be growing pains, absolutely. Do I think it is a lock they are in the finals, not this season. However, I think if all 4 remain healthy they will be in the finals every year after.
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USC Fans Are....a Little Salty Over Pleasant
Tandaian replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
I like how there is a lot of mention how Oregon is pulling kids because of NIL deals. I'm sure that is partially true, however out of the top 10 classes on On3, the Ducks are 9th at 50K average. ND is averaging 48K for the lowest of the top 10 classes. On3 says USC's NIL average is 145K. -
Live Updates: Nyckoles Harbor to South Carolina
Tandaian replied to NJDuck's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
The Oregon Ducks are routinely at the Cross Country, In-Door and Out-Door Track Championships as a team every year. South Carolina hasn't made it as a team since 2015. They are nearly the worst team in the SEC as a track team. He didn't choose South Carolina for track reasons. The last South Carolina Olympian was 2012. The Ducks have had 9 different Olympians since 2012. -
Live Updates: Nyckoles Harbor to South Carolina
Tandaian replied to NJDuck's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Yep, track and Olympics must not have been as a high as a priority as he mentioned. South Carolina track and field team is not good. -
New Updates: 5-Star Nyckoles Harbor Recruitment...Whew!
Tandaian replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
As another thread mentioned, he is going to South Carolina. I guess track and the Olympics isn't as important as I thought. -
Live Updates: Nyckoles Harbor to South Carolina
Tandaian replied to NJDuck's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
According to ESPN recruiting rankings. Pac-12 is only behind the SEC with 6 teams in the top 30. Conference rankings ACC: 1. Miami (5) 2. Clemson (10) 3. Florida State (18) 4. North Carolina (29) 5. Louisville (33) 6. NC State (39) 7. Pittsburgh (47) 8. Boston College (49) 9. Wake Forest (51) 10. Duke (52) 11. Virginia Tech (53) 12. Georgia Tech (55) 13. Virginia (68) 14. Syracuse (unranked) Big 12: 1. Texas (3) 2. Oklahoma (4) 3. TCU (19) 4. Texas Tech (24) 5. Baylor (35) 6. Kansas State (40) 7. Iowa State (42) 8. West Virginia (43) 9. Oklahoma State (61) 10. Kansas (69) Big Ten: 1. Ohio State (8) 2. Penn State (13) 3. Michigan (17) 4. Nebraska (25) 5. Michigan State (26) 6. Maryland (34) 7. Illinois (41) 8. Iowa (44) 9. Northwestern (46) 10. Wisconsin (48) 11. Minnesota (54) 12. Rutgers (57) 13. Purdue (63) 14. Indiana (74) Pac-12: 1. Oregon (9) 2. USC (14) 3. Utah (20) 4. Colorado (23) 5. Washington (28) 6. UCLA (30) 7. Stanford (33) 8. Arizona (36) 9. Oregon State (58) 10. Arizona State (59) 11. Washington State (66) 12. California (75) SEC: 1. Alabama (1) 2. Georgia (2) 3. LSU (6) 4. Florida (11) 5. Texas A&M (12) 6. Tennessee (15) 7. South Carolina (16) 8. Auburn (21) 9. Arkansas (22) 10. Mississippi State (27) 11. Ole Miss (30) 12. Kentucky (37) 13. Missouri (38) 14. Vanderbilt (50)