Huge Eyeball Test Today For the Ducks

[David Marsh]

I am aware I am posting this before game day... So the three of you who read this before Saturday, I apologize. For everyone else you're reading this on one of the biggest days of the season for the Ducks. 

 

I am feeling good about a Ducks win but they do face a big eyeball test, at least a score board eyeball test. It's a pac-12 after dark game which means the majority of the East Coast is going to bed and they'll only look at the box scores in the morning. 

 

And this game's box scores against USC is going to be huge because our biggest competition right now are those darned Huskies and they just played USC last week. 

 

Now if Oregon can beat USC by a wider margin and potentially score more points, I'm hoping for 60, that will go a long way to showing those on the east coast that the Ducks are currentlu the better team. 

 

Additionally, Washington plays Utah today as well. I anticipate Washington winning this one, it's also at Washington, but if the Huskies are in a close(r) game it will go a long way to showing just how much better our Ducks are. After all, the Ducks put Utah away so thoroughly that Utah looked like an unranked team. 

 

Can Washington keep Utah to below 10 points? Unlikely. Will they score more than 35, that's a possibility but Oregon put Utah away and just ran out the clock against them. The Ducks didn't need to score more points. 

 

So for the box scores eyeballs... Let's hope that the Ducks run up the score and that Utah makes Washington look a bit more mortal. 

 

I'm torn as to if I want Washington to lose or not. I always want them to lose but I'm conflicted in that I am unsure how it will or will not help us. I think Washington is a top 10 team but not top 5 and they've been very lucky to date. 

 

Oregon has impressed the committee in how they are putting away opponets like Georgia, Alabama and Clemson all did on their title runs... Leaving no doubt whose the better team. 

 

And Oregon should get another shot at Washington regardless ... Unless there is a major disaster somewhere. 

 

So go Ducks! 

[Dave23]

Georgia is in a big game today with Old Miss what happens to the rankings if Georgia loses? Two 9-1 SEC teams with a win over the Dogs Old Miss would more than likely be the top of the one loss teams. 

 

The more one loss teams the crazier this thing is going to get. If Washington loses they're going to drop back to 9 or further. Michigan could get bounced out of the top 10 if they lose badly to Penn. Then there's a 9-1 Penn State in the mix but they probably will not jump in front of the ducks in the polls.

 

hold on to your hats gentlemen. It's just starting to get fun!

 

 

[DUCKED]

On 11/10/2023 at 11:26 PM, David Marsh said:

I am aware I am posting this before game day... So the three of you who read this before Saturday, I apologize. For everyone else you're reading this on one of the biggest days of the season for the Ducks. 

 

I am feeling good about a Ducks win but they do face a big eyeball test, at least a score board eyeball test. It's a pac-12 after dark game which means the majority of the East Coast is going to bed and they'll only look at the box scores in the morning. 

 

And this game's box scores against USC is going to be huge because our biggest competition right now are those darned Huskies and they just played USC last week. 

 

Now if Oregon can beat USC by a wider margin and potentially score more points, I'm hoping for 60, that will go a long way to showing those on the east coast that the Ducks are currentlu the better team. 

 

Additionally, Washington plays Utah today as well. I anticipate Washington winning this one, it's also at Washington, but if the Huskies are in a close(r) game it will go a long way to showing just how much better our Ducks are. After all, the Ducks put Utah away so thoroughly that Utah looked like an unranked team. 

 

Can Washington keep Utah to below 10 points? Unlikely. Will they score more than 35, that's a possibility but Oregon put Utah away and just ran out the clock against them. The Ducks didn't need to score more points. 

 

So for the box scores eyeballs... Let's hope that the Ducks run up the score and that Utah makes Washington look a bit more mortal. 

 

I'm torn as to if I want Washington to lose or not. I always want them to lose but I'm conflicted in that I am unsure how it will or will not help us. I think Washington is a top 10 team but not top 5 and they've been very lucky to date. 

 

Oregon has impressed the committee in how they are putting away opponets like Georgia, Alabama and Clemson all did on their title runs... Leaving no doubt whose the better team. 

 

And Oregon should get another shot at Washington regardless ... Unless there is a major disaster somewhere. 

 

So go Ducks! 

A close Husky win benefits Oregon the most, providing the Ducks win out AND beat Washington in the PAC-12 championship game.

[AnotherOD]

On 11/10/2023 at 11:26 PM, David Marsh said:

 

I'm torn as to if I want Washington to lose or not. I always want them to lose but I'm conflicted in that I am unsure how it will or will not help us.

 

I can't root for Washington. I want them to lose to Utah, lose to Oregon State, and lose to WSU.

 

I don't expect it; but, I can pull for it.

 

I find it easiest to root against UW and root for chaos. I can't see Old Miss beating Georgia, need Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game, Texas to drop a game, maybe somehow Florida State drop a game (and Michigan and tOSU can drop as many as possible as well).

 

 

[Haywarduck]

MariØ is the gift that keeps giving, so you never know.

 

He was able to beat the nuts on their field so crazier things have happened. Go MariØ Go, I have no problem saying that!

 

Bring on the chaos, on defense for Oregon, and within the top 10 football rankings.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Hate and i should emphasize, i absolutely hate having to root for a putrid husky victory.

 

Yet, I ask myself, what would potentially keep a 12-1 OBD's from making the CFP?

 

SOS and lack of glamour/style points.......

 

The Ducks have handed out some epic beatdowns to opponents this year. Beatdowns against usc, asu and the beavers are a must down the stretch. Style points matter because the eye test cannot be discounted......

 

As for SOS? To remain the top one loss team requires a SOS that trumps 1 loss Alabama/Texas/Penn State and soon to be Michigan

 

This will be difficult....

 

To this point the Ducks have one top 25 win (Utah) and the epic game (lets snatch a defeat from the jaws of victory) loss against uw to slightly help with SOS......

 

The Ducks SOS improves some with games against usc and the beavers. But IMHO it will be a revenge game victory over an undefeated Top 5 husky team that vaults the Ducks into the Top 4.

 

A victory over a 1 loss husky team may not be enough for our Ducks to sell the committee on a Duck invite.

 

The huskies need to eke out close wins against the utes and beavs so the utes and beavs dont fall out of top 25. History shows that the committee will not vault a one loss team over an undefeated team.

 

The Ducks should put 60 plus on the board in each of their last 3 games. Then avenge their 1 loss in the PAC title game and be invited to CFP.

 

Avoid the chaos that Haywarduck is rooting for is about to happen in the next 3 weeks and OBD's improve their CFP chances.

 

However, none of this matters unless the east coast biased ones (former bama qb) wake up Sunday morning to a 70-24 Duck victory.

 

Go Ducks beat usc......

[Mic]

On 11/11/2023 at 12:15 AM, DUCKED said:

A close Husky win benefits Oregon the most, providing the Ducks win out AND beat Washington in the PAC-12 championship game.

Wouldn't it better for UW to win big vs. Utah (like Oregon did) and THEN lose to O in the Championship game?   The higher the ranking for O's opponents, the better the win for O.  Of course, there's a lot of assumptions here that both UW & O will be able to win out and that's far from certain even now.  

 

Even today, I'd have O on upset alert because it certainly could happen.  USC is most dangerous in just the area O is the most vulnerable, imo.

[Steven A]

I am rooting for ewe dub.  My rationalization . . .

 

If they win out till the rematch, WHEN we beat them in the CShip game, that will be a much bigger pill for them to swallow with us being the team that spoiled their undefeated season AND kept them out of the playoffs AND put us in the playoffs.

 

It doesn't get any sweeter than that. 

[Log Haulin]

On 11/11/2023 at 6:52 AM, Mic said:

USC is most dangerous in just the area O is the most vulnerable, imo.

What area of vulnerability is that? I think USC has an elite offense and we will see what their D brings. They really have nothing to lose and that makes this game much more interesting. 

 

But Oregon really has no defensive weakness. The most vulnerable is the passing D. Ducks have went up against some good passing teams and they rank inside the top 30 nationally. Thats not really a weakness.

 

USC needs to keep Oregon and Nix off the field. That will require long sustained drives ending in TDs. I think USC loses if they fail to do that. 

 

I think USC has to run, run and run some more. But that isn't Riley style with arguably one of the best college QBs in the country. 

 

Ducks are 13th or so in run D so I like Oregons chances at stopping Loyd and Caleb from gashing the Ducks. 

 

If Caleb runs the ball? Bad medicine. Just ask Penix and that dude from last week, forgot the guys name. Oregon knocks dudes out.

 

Just a few of my thoughts and opinions. 

[Mic]

On 11/11/2023 at 7:50 AM, Log Haulin said:

What area of vulnerability is that? 

 

The most vulnerable is the passing D. Ducks have went up against some good passing teams and they rank inside the top 30 nationally. Thats not really a weakness.

That.  I didn't mean to say Oregon was "weak" because clearly they are not.  But passing D, imo, is the one area that is the weakest. Let's say "least strong".

[Jon Joseph]

Thanks, David. Great pre-game post and comments.

 

Eye test for certain. One comparison CT members will be making after today's and tonight's (sigh) slate of games will be to compare the Ducks/SC game with the thrashing #20 Notre Dame put on Troy in South Bend. 

 

As most of us expected, the Pac-12, especially with a 9-game conference schedule (FSU plays North Alabama next Saturday instead of playing UNC or Louisville, and Bama plays Chattanooga) is devouring its own.

 

3-loss Arizona is ranked, but once ranked CU, UCLA, USC, and WSU are out of the top 25. The only top 25 that matters is the one the CT comes with on 12/3. But I don't see any of these 4 teams working their way back in or another conference team joining Arizona.

 

Before today's games, Oregon's SOS is 63. Bama 8, Texas 10. Both 1-loss Bama and 1-loss Texas have better wins on their schedule than Oregon's terrific win in Salt Lake. Texas defeated #8 Bama in Tuscaloosa, and Bama has top 25 wins over Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU.

 

The only justification for Oregon being the highest-ranked 1-loss team is the Eye Test.

 

FSU is likely to go 13-0. Ditto Ohio State/Michigan. UGA is likely to go 13-0 unless Bama defeats UGA in the SEC champ game with both finishing 12-1. Texas, with Quinn Ewers back at QB, is odds on to finish 12-1.

 

13-0 teams are in. Potential 12-1 UGA/Bama, Ohio State/Michigan, Texas, and Oregon if it wins out, will all be in the mix for say, 3 spots with undefeated FSU in. What team and conference gets the weenier?

 

Spot On David! Oregon has to do all it can to win every game impressively, especially with next week's game at ASU also likely to be late-night viewing without the cache of the SC brand, and for Washington to do the same.

 

Again, great take, and Go Ducks! Stomp SC!

 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[The Kamikaze Kid]

According to ESPN stats, UO sits at #37 in passing defense at 204yards per game. This includes eight BIG teams ahead of the Ducks. I think that is mostly due to the lack of passing offense in the BIG than great defense. I highly doubt that teams like Indiana and Northwestern have better passing D than UO.

 

Also of the seven games played (not counting PSU), four have been against top 10 passing QBs: #1  Fuskies, #3 CU, #6 WSU, #7 Hawaii. In that context, I'd say UO's passing D has been spectacular.

[Just Ducky]

 Game day, Dez said the Ducks would cover and Lou said the Ducks are playing better than anyone. Getting some respect from the big boys this morning. Love that.

 

 Go s

[Jon Joseph]

My Bad - Only 1 of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State can finish 13-0. All 3 have a shot before today's PSU/MI game is concluded, to finish 12-1.

 

Here is the Easy Peasey Scenario for the CT. -

 

13-0 1. UGA

 

13-0 2. MI/OH ST

 

13-0 3. UW

 

13-0 4. FSU

 

This is a scenario I hope we do not see but since 2014, the CT has had it easy picking the top 4 except when PSU defeated OH ST, won the B1G title, but finished 11-2. 

 

The CT opted for 11-1 OH ST. The Buckeyes lost to Clemson in the semis, 30-0. PSU lost in the Rose Bowl to USC.

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/11/2023 at 6:41 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Hate and i should emphasize, i absolutely hate having to root for a putrid husky victory.

FishDuck Fact: "It can be honorable to cheer for Washington....but only when it will help Our Beloved Ducks."

 

[Just Ducky]

 One thing is for sure, lots of big games left to play. We have 3 plus the p? Championship if we win our next 3.
 

 If we win out and Mich looses to Ohio state I like our chances. the eye test would probably favor the Ducks.

 

 Mich. will only play 2 quality teams that are ranked and the Ducks have already played 3 ranked teams at game time so they could easily drop back behind us. The Ducks will play 2 more ranked teams if the Beavs keep winning. 

 The mutts could be in the top 4 when and if we get to play them again, but looking at their schedule they have a tough road ahead of them also. The Beavs get a good game out of their QB they could knock them off and their game with the Utes and Cougs won’t be cake walks either.

 

 I like our our chances but it won’t be a gimmie.

 

 Won’t be an easy closing argument for sure.  
 

 Oh! and I could never root for the Mutts.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Just Ducky

[Desert Duck]

We definitely failed the eyeball test tonight. Fortunately we did get the W.

 

But I feel like that's about all we got. And we really needed a statement win.

[Mic]

I'd have to say Oregon didn't pass the eye test with this win.  Over 20 penalties, failed to cover the spread and never put USC away til the very end.  I'm afraid they've given ammunition to their critics and as I feared last week, Texas is the dark horse that could displace Oregon in the #6 slot.

 

Plus, if O doesn't get the penalties cleaned up and play better, the Beavers are going to take Oregon to the mat.  The Beavers are flat out scary.

[Just Ducky]

Eye test! I had to cover mine. Thank gosh for Bo Nix.

[MikeJ]

Ugly win indeed. 

 

The bad:  lackluster performance, at Autzen, with too many penalties (although I thought we drew some ticky-tack calls), and the offense managed to score fewer points against SC than Colorado, Cal, Arizona, Washington, ND.  Some genuinely weird play-calling as well. 

 

The good:  if you're going to have a sloppy, flat, under-performing game, doing it in a win is good.  And Bucky is OK (big scare there).  Clearly Lanning and Nix weren't happy with the performance, so maybe a good reminder/wake-up call approaching the Civil War. 

[kirklandduck]

Defense passed the eye test. Offense passed in the 1st half only. Special teams did not pass, Camden Lewis needs to lose his starting spot.

[ElPatoUO]

On 11/11/2023 at 11:28 PM, kirklandduck said:

Camden Lewis needs to lose his starting spot.

To who?

[kirklandduck]

On 11/12/2023 at 2:31 AM, ElPatoUO said:

To who?

He's not the only kicker on the roster. Time to give someone else a shot and see what happens 

[David Marsh]

Some great highlight reel stuff is the biggest win from this one. 

 

And Oregon did hold USC to their second lowest scoring of the season. 

 

Oregon's defense needs to confirm to find ways to getting pressure on the QB and lock down those receivers a bit more for our rematch with Washington. 

[QuackyQuack]

On 11/12/2023 at 11:26 AM, kirklandduck said:

He's not the only kicker on the roster. Time to give someone else a shot and see what happens 

I don’t agree with that. DL has faith in him, and with the kicker position you don’t just give it to someone else and see what happens. If the coaches start doubting Camden then his confidence will be affected even more than it already is if we need to call his number again. 
 

He is a seasoned kicker and just going through some mental roadblocks. Raise this kid up and boost his confidence is the only option at this point in the season. 

[kirklandduck]

On 11/12/2023 at 12:52 PM, QuackyQuack said:

I don’t agree with that. DL has faith in him, and with the kicker position you don’t just give it to someone else and see what happens. If the coaches start doubting Camden then his confidence will be affected even more than it already is if we need to call his number again. 
 

He is a seasoned kicker and just going through some mental roadblocks. Raise this kid up and boost his confidence is the only option at this point in the season. 

A seasoned kicker with multiple instances of these mental roadblocks over his career and is making only 64% of his field goals so far this season.  We're 10 games in, DL's probably done as much raising up as he can probably do at this point.  If anything, losing his starting spot and earning it back might bring back that confidence.  Right now is the time to go a different direction since the next game is against ASU, perfect opponent to allow a new kicker to show you what he can do.

[Mic]

On 11/12/2023 at 12:52 PM, QuackyQuack said:

I don’t agree with that. DL has faith in him, and with the kicker position you don’t just give it to someone else and see what happens. If the coaches start doubting Camden then his confidence will be affected even more than it already is if we need to call his number again. 

I'm not certain this is still true and it may be reflected in Dan's decisions to go for all these 4th downs when in FG range.  Nothing, of course, can explain Dan's willingness to go for 4th downs in Duck territory, but that can probably be summed up by his large set of kahunnas or his total disregard for danger! 

[Jon Joseph]

David, this was such a great post with great comments.

 

Tuesday night, if the PO Ct does not jump UW over FSU then something is very wrong. (Rankings at 9 Eastern, or thereabout, Tuesday between basketball games so ESPN can make more money. I just love amateur athletics.)

 

UW will have 3 victories over the Top 25 teams when the next rankings come out. Arizona, Oregon (sigh,) and Utah, and a win over bowl-eligible USC. A beat down of Michigan State, similar to what Ohio State put on Sparty in Columbus Saturday and not on the road. 2 of the wins against ranked teams came on the road. 

 

FSU has 1 win against a ranked team, 3-loss LSU. Clemson? Clemson is now 6-4 and not ranked. This FSU team and the conference it plays in are a charade. FSU plays NO. Alabama Saturday while UW trips to Week 12 AP #10 Oregon State.

 

UW needs to get respect for what it has done on the field and the Ducks need UW to be ranked in the top 4 when Oregon (knockwood) plays UW in Vegas.

 

But the PO Ct makes it up as it goes along so who knows?