Oregon’s Strange Red Zone Problem

[FishDuck Article]

Down the stretch this season, Oregon’s offense has been on an absolute tear. Heisman hopeful Bo Nix has put up ridiculous numbers. Perhaps the most telling is his 78-percent completion rate, which is the best in college football history. However, Oregon does have a strange problem in the red zone — and it isn’t the kicking game. When the Ducks ...

 

Oregon's Strange Red Zone Problem

FISHDUCK.COM

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Down the stretch this season, Oregon's offense has been on an absolute tear. Heisman hopeful Bo Nix has put up ridiculous numbers. Perhaps...

 

[Log Haulin]

The QB is not a threat this year either. Defenses know Bo isn't running it. Thats a major weapon thats no longer utilized.

[kirklandduck]

Also, having a big bruising back like a Royce Freeman type would pick up more yards.

[Haywarduck]

And with the dawgs are good at understanding our tendencies it will be even harder to score in those positions unless Coach Stein comes up with some effective answers.

 

I like what Gary Bryant brings at receiver, but was also impressed when Holden came in. Holden gives us an extra 30lbs and 4 more inches. Maybe Holden should be part of the bigs package in that zone.

 

The other method is the tush push, and maybe pulling all 340lbs of Steven Jones to shove our RB into the end zone.

 

I do agree doing the same thing that isn't working too well won't work against the dawgs, or anyone going forward, great article!

[Grandpa Duck]

Maybe find a “Fridge” with good hands to bull his way in.

[David Marsh]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:03 AM, Log Haulin said:

The QB is not a threat this year either. Defenses know Bo isn't running it. Thats a major weapon thats no longer utilized.

Nix kept the ball and scored against OSU on a run from 6ish yards out. So that is an effective answer but don't really want to send him in too much.

 

But a few more QB designed runs might help loosen things up in general. 

[Annie]

Is the Tush Push legal in college football these days?

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:03 AM, David Marsh said:

Nix kept the ball and scored against OSU on a run from 6ish yards out. So that is an effective answer but don't really want to send him in too much.

For everyone: that TD by Nix was NOT a called play. It was a classic Inside Zone Read from the Chip Kelly days, that in this instance-the backside defensive end being “read” did not sit in the gap, but crashed to the running back.

 

Nix saw that and the correct read is to pull the ball as he did. It rarely happens these days, but when it does, it is a good and safe run for him on the backside of the defense.

[JDuck]

A couple games back we got a hold, and then a 15 yd penalty, and I think it was 2nd and goal from the 39?  Nix threw a 39 yard TD.  Stein definitely needs to get more creative in tight.  Watch what other teams do in that situation, I see it and wonder why we keep trying to Cristbal it up the middle.  I know we have one of the best O-lines, but the D knows what's coming.

Edited November 27, 2023 by JDuck

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:05 AM, Annie said:

Is the Tush Push legal in college football these days?

Yes, and this is new.  You can PUSH a running back forward, but you cannot PULL him.

[Charles Fischer]

Great observation and research David, and THANKS for the article!

[Canvasback]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:03 AM, David Marsh said:

But a few more QB designed runs might help loosen things up in general.

There hasn't been much need for Nix to run up to this point. Keeping him healthy was important. With a lot of chips on the table, I suspect that Friday night we may see him run more by design. If he does get dinged up a little, he will have a month to recover before the next game.

[OregonDucks]

I think that it's the same issue that we see on 4th and short.  Lack of creative play-calling in short yardage situations.

 

Will Stein should look at some of the plays that other teams run on short yardage situations that scheme players WIDE OPEN and/or give the QB a RPO option.  

 

USC used to run a QB bootleg play with two "receivers" running in the same direction as the QB downfield - one short and one intermediate option.  The QB could also run the ball, if a defender chose to cover the short passing option.  It was darn near impossible to stop.

 

Kenny Dilligham used to "borrow" plays that he saw others run.  Kyle Shanahan is an offensive genius and uses play-action and motion to confuse defenses, and scheme players wide open. Stein should watch some 49ers games.

 

 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

Fergie was forked. 

 

Friday night it is all systems GO for RPO plays utilizing Bo's running ability if needed. 

[Drake]

Red Zone scoring is much more important if you are rarely in the red zone over the course of a season. 
 

What is interesting to note is that Oregon State and Colorado both lead Oregon statistically in red zone scoring percentage. OSU has 42 red zone attempts and have scored 41 times, while Colorado has 38 attempts with 37 scores. 
 

So far this year Oregon has had 63 red zone attempts with 55 scores. 48 touchdowns, 7 field goals, and 8 times came away without a score. 

Washington has 58 attempts and scored 49 times. 41 touchdowns, 8 field goals, and 9 times did not score. 

I say let’s get into the red zone and let Nix do his job, and when necessary, kick the field goal.

[Mic]

The solution to this dilemma is simple: take a 5-yard penalty on 1st down.  If that doesn't help, take another on 2nd down.  From 20 yards out Oregon is lethal. If need be, make sure to move the ball to the mid-field point.  Cam's better straight-on than angled, imo.

 

(U guys know I'm speaking facetiously, right?)

[David Marsh]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:55 AM, Mic said:

The solution to this dilemma is simple: take a 5-yard penalty on 1st down.  If that doesn't help, take another on 2nd down.  From 20 yards out Oregon is lethal. If need be, make sure to move the ball to the mid-field point.  Cam's better straight-on than angled, imo.

 

(U guys know I'm speaking facetiously, right?)

It does feel a little bit like the Ducks should just take the field goal and not bother trying for a touchdown at times in this situtation. 

 

I remember the Mariota era where that offense was in a short yard situation at the goal line and sometimes for them getting a false start seemed to make scoring easier because they had just a little more space to operate the offense. 

 

This offense's problem is the opposite sooooo.. yeah. 

 

But we also seem to have far more penalties around the 10 yard line than anywhere else. 

[Desert Duck]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:03 AM, David Marsh said:

But a few more QB designed runs might help loosen things up in general. 

 

 

I kind of hate this idea, but I also think I love it. 

 

I hate it because I fear the greater chance of injury.

 

But then I think back to the last two games of the 2020 season when Mario finally freed Justin, to be Justin... and he ran all over Utah & Wisconsin. 

 

We potentially have three games left. So, to your comment, I'm afraid that I agree... Let Bo run when the opportunity is there.

 

[Mic]

On 11/27/2023 at 11:12 AM, Desert Duck said:

We potentially have three games left. So, to your comment, I'm afraid that I agree... Let Bo run when the opportunity is there.

I don't think there's ever been anything stopping him from running except himself.  From what I've seen, he has just about total free reign to run whatever play he thinks will work (from within the Stein scheme).  But I think he knows his getting injured would be fatal for Oregon's chances to win the Championship - and he's right.  He's probably discussed this in-depth with Lanning & Stein throughout the season.  

 

He's thinking more and more like an assistant coach and less and less like he has to carry all the load on his back.  Another reason, imo, he should be a no-brainer for the Heisman.  

[David Marsh]

On 11/27/2023 at 11:12 AM, Desert Duck said:

 

I kind of hate this idea, but I also think I love it. 

 

I hate it because I fear the greater chance of injury.

 

But then I think back to the last two games of the 2020 season when Mario finally freed Justin, to be Justin... and he ran all over Utah & Wisconsin. 

 

We potentially have three games left. So, to your comment, I'm afraid that I agree... Let Bo run when the opportunity is there.

 

Zone read runs as part of a RPO are reletively safe for a QB. 

 

Nix was injured last year in one of Dilly's absolute WORST play calls of the entire season. Nix was in an empty set (no runningback) in a fairly obvious running situation against Washington. I want to say it was 3rd and 6(ish). They run the play, or partially run the play before a timeout is called and the Huskies see its a QB run play. Then the Ducks line up and do the same play again! 

 

By this point in the game Washington had put a spy on Nix to try and slow his run game. Without a runningback in the backfield with Nix there isn't even a fake hand-off to try and confuse the defense it's just a QB run right after snap. Then in typcial Washington fashion the defender leads with his head into Nix's leg and injures him. 

 

But this injury could have been avoided if they at least put a runningback with Nix and based the play off some sort of zone read rather than just auto running the quarterback. They could have also passed the ball, T-Ferg is an absolute beast and could have caught a ball for 6 yards and a first down. 

 

So I'm less afraid of running a quarterback if the play call around that call is right and it puts a quarterback in a position to protect themselves in the process with either a slide in the open field or just running out of bounds. But a QB run without even a runningback in the backfield is frankly poor judgement. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by David Marsh

[Desert Duck]

Great comments and breakdown of that terrible run play that Oregon called for Nix against UW last year. 

 

You have relieved my fears a bit regarding Bo running a little more. Plus, when I combine that with Bo's exceptional QB mental processing speed, I feel even better about it. 

[Solar]

I was heartened to see them go back to putting James in for the short yardage specialty. He's so good at picking up a few yards like a bowling ball breaking through legs like pins.

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:07 AM, Charles Fischer said:

For everyone: that TD by Nix was NOT a called play. It was a classic Inside Zone Read from the Chip Kelly days,

Spot on, Charles. Really interesting that TFerg was so well positioned on the motion making me think that the play had a probability baked in that the LB/Edge would bite on the inside RB fake. The meld on the fake was so fast that it looked to me like Bucky knew he wasn't getting the ball. Masterful play call.

 

While I don't want to see Bo run if he doesn't have to, those zone reads and three pronged RPOs keep a defense guessing about if and when Bo will take off. Justin's runs the last two games of 2019-20 were something DCs hadn't planned on and they were very successful. They put Oregon in the Rose Bowl and then carried them to victory. 

 

So if the read is there, Go, Bo, Go!

 

 

[Solar]

You'd have to think that short yardage/finishing drives is the biggest focus for the offense this week. Players and coaches. UW defense rises to the occasion, we need to too.

 

Isn't it great we get one more day to prepare than UW?