Michigan vs. Washington CFP Championship Pre-game Discussion

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

This thread is for discussions, analysis, predictions, etc. 

 

Washington has not faced a defense like Michigan’s all season. Texas had a strong DL, but their secondary has been pretty bad all season. The only good passing QB’s that Texas faced all year beat them.

 

My guess is that this game will end up like the Oregon/OSU national championship game in 2015. Washington will hang with Michigan for a while, but the Wolverines running game and defense will grind them down late in the game. Michigan by two scores.

[GODUCKS15]

If Dillon Johnson's not playing this will be a tough win for WA. And even then he's dinged up pretty good so he's not at full strength. I don't see WA pulling off a win with just Penix. 

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

On 1/2/2024 at 1:00 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

If Dillon Johnson's not playing this will be a tough win for WA. And even then he's dinged up pretty good so he's not at full strength. I don't see WA pulling off a win with just Penix. 

That’s the thing about Michigan’s D-Line. They can stuff the run and get to the QB without putting extra men in the box.

[Jon Joseph]

Thank you, Doctor.

 

Michigan opens -4.5 vs. UW. Some of the margin can likely be attributed to UW's Dillon, the leading rusher in CFB from November 1st on, going down late. One of the most untimely injuries in CFB history that along with an interfering with the TX punt returner correct call, gave the Horns the chance to pull out the victory.

 

I'm betting on Penix. 14-0, The last 5 wins have come in one possession games. The 3 top teams I watched yesterday were UW, Texas and Oregon. I think all 3 with all hands on deck, Troy Franklin among Ducks opt outs plays as does the Rimington Award winner, and I think all 3 would have defeated Michigan or Bama.  

 

I am so happy that both Bama and Texas went down to shut up the ESPN SEC hype machine. How disengenous to say that FSU could have been in a playoff if the ACC, B1G and Pac-12 had not delayed the 12 team field with no mention of SEC Commish Greg Sankey working to take OK and TX out of the B12, while working with B12 Commish Bowlsby, in structuring a new PO format. The B1G goes first with SC and UCLA and the SEC would have been fine with this? Right?

 

And I am so sick of Herbie et al telling us about all of the great SEC games we will be blessed to witness on ABC and ESPN come 2024. Hey, Herbie, how about these games: Texas at Michigan; Oregon at Michigan; USC at Michigan; Michigan at UW; Ohio State at Oregon; UW at Oregon; Oregon at Wisconsin; Penn State at USC, and 2023's most watched regular season game will again be played when Michigan visits your alma mammy. 

 

After watching the Sugar Bowl I came up with a great idea! Maybe, CFB should wait to hand the CFB MVP Award until after the biggest games of the season are played? The ESPN/SEC hype machine went to work and a guy who finished 2-3 vs, teams with winning records won the Heisman over a guy who just threw for 430 yards, 4500+ for the season, went 14-0 to date, and defeated 7 bowl eligible teams including Oregon twice. And in the process, played 9 and not 8 conference games. If Penix had played in the SEC do you think he might have won the Heisman? 

 

Michigan's D is absolutely legit. But Michigan did all it could yesterday to choke with a missed FG, 2 fumbled punts, and an O that disappeared in the 2nd half before a great late drive to tie the game. Michigan with 6 sacks and 4 Bama QB Milroe fumbles almost found a way to lose the game. 

 

I like the Dawgs, Penix, the UW OL, and a D that comes through when it has to, to win back-to-back games in Dixie and take home the final Final 4 title.

 

But no matter which team wins, it will be a B1G win. Cue Paul Finebaum? If Paul doesn't opt out he's on at 3 PM Eastern today to tell us Michigan should have been disqualified from the post-season and why Harbaugh should be in CFB jail. Hey, Paul, what's the old SEC rubric: If You Ain't Cheatin' You Ain't Tryin'. 

 

Of course there is the 2024 season to be played but UW at Oregon in the final regular season game in 2024 could be right up there with Michigan at Ohio State.

 

GO! (GULP!) Dawgs!

Edited January 2 by Jon Joseph

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/2/2024 at 1:00 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

If Dillon Johnson's not playing this will be a tough win for WA. And even then he's dinged up pretty good so he's not at full strength. I don't see WA pulling off a win with just Penix. 

I humbly disagree. I don't think that Michigan has the fire power to hang with UW's O and I very much doubt that the UW OL will give up 6 sacks like the Bama OL did yesterday, that the UW center will play bocce ball with his snaps, or that Penix will fumble or otherwise turn the ball over 4 times. 

 

The Rose Bowl was an exciting game but it was a error-filled with both teams stumbling and bumbling.

[criticalduck]

I will be rooting for Michigan! The Fuskies and their fans are already insufferable.

[mikethehiker]

Interesting that Washington beat Michigan to finish the 1991 season and win their co-national championship.  The Pac-12 got their first playoff win since the very first playoff game when Mariota and co. creamed Florida St. in the Rose Bowl.

 

I'm intrigued to see what DeBoer and the staff come up with, especially if Dillon Johnson is hurt.  Washington has some real special playmakers on offense and Trice is having one of the best defensive seasons I've seen in the Pac in a very long time.

 

What Michigan accomplished against Alabama seems really impressive.  However, this is the same Alabama team that can beat Georgia, but also lose at home to Texas by 10 and should have lost to Auburn.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/2/2024 at 1:43 PM, mikethehiker said:

Interesting that Washington beat Michigan to finish the 1991 season and win their co-national championship.  The Pac-12 got their first playoff win since the very first playoff game when Mariota and co. creamed Florida St. in the Rose Bowl.

 

I'm intrigued to see what DeBoer and the staff come up with, especially if Dillon Johnson is hurt.  Washington has some real special playmakers on offense and Trice is having one of the best defensive seasons I've seen in the Pac in a very long time.

 

What Michigan accomplished against Alabama seems really impressive.  However, this is the same Alabama team that can beat Georgia, but also lose at home to Texas by 10 and should have lost to Auburn.

Mike, great take. UW played a more difficult schedule than Michigan. Michigan's B1G wins, and yes there were opt outs, came against bowl favorites and bowl losers, Ohio State and Penn State.

 

UW's best wins. Twice, sigh, over Oregon bowl winner Oregon and a win onthe road vs. No. 14 Arizona that defeated No. 12 Oklahoma and a road win at a NR SC that just pasted the No. 15 team in the land.

 

The Pac-12 conference in 2023 than was deeper than the ACC, B1G, B12 and even the SEC. I thought this would play out last night. And I think it will play out in Houston.

[Jon Joseph]

At least one if not 2 PO records will fall when UW faces Michigan.

 

For the 1st time a team that played 9 conference games will win a championship.

 

No team without a Blue Chip Roster, more than 50% of the roster made up of 5 and 4* recruits (BCR) has won the BCS or Playoff. 

 

UW does not have a BCR. 16 teams came into 2023 with a BCR. Michigan at 54% was 14 out of the 16 BCR teams. If UW wins, another record will fall. 

[noDucknewby]

On 1/2/2024 at 10:41 AM, criticalduck said:

I will be rooting for Michigan! The Fuskies and their fans are already insufferable.

Yeah that.  Never ever ever root for the fuskies unless a win somehow benefits us.  In this case it clearly doesn't.

 

Sure I feel a little bile coming up pulling for a cheater like Harbaugh, but not nearly as much as a fusky fanbase with a real natty under their belt.

Edited January 2 by noDucknewby

[Dave23]

Dose Michigan have 3 NFL ready DBs? I don't think so, good luck stopping Penix and his NFL level WRs. With Penix pinpoint throws and the talent WRs a 50-50 ball is more like 96% ball. 

 

Hate to say this but Penix is the real deal and the best pure passer in all of college ball. 

[VegasDuck]

Bet UW +4 and over 55

[Jon Joseph]

5 early thoughts ahead of Washington vs. Michigan in the College Football Playoff National Championship

SATURDAYOUTWEST.COM

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Let's spin it forward to next week's College Football Playoff National Championship showdown between Michigan and Washington in Houston.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 1/2/2024 at 10:30 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Hey, Herbie, how about these games: Texas at Michigan; Oregon at Michigan; USC at Michigan; Michigan at UW; Ohio State at Oregon; UW at Oregon; Oregon at Wisconsin; Penn State at USC, and 2023's most watched regular season game will again be played when Michigan visits your alma mammy. 

 

Jon, you bring up a point that I have been pondering as well.  So much of the upcoming B1G games will be incredibly compelling, so much more interesting to watch...especially if Oregon and Washington stir things up with quite a bit more offense than they are used to.  I know I will be all tied up trying to keep track of all the interesting games on fall Saturdays in my new conference.

 

To me...I think the points made about Michigan are absolutely true, and normally I would agree with them concerning a normal great team.  But I am certain that bastard, Kalen DeBoer, will pull something new out of the hat and throw off Michigan enough to pull out the win.  Michigan will emphasize their toughness difference, and Washington will pull all the stops out to score.

 

He is a damn good coach...

[Annie]

On 1/2/2024 at 10:30 AM, Jon Joseph said:

...

 

I am so happy that both Bama and Texas went down to shut up the ESPN SEC hype machine. ...

 

 

[Duckhart2]

Just like way back when big10 played pac 8&10 in the RB every year. The high octane run & passing games were always a problem for the b10 winner.

[Jon Joseph]

Michael Penix Jr. serves as unlikely final villain to Michigan’s title hopes

SATURDAYTRADITION.COM

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Michael Penix Jr. is all that stands between Michigan and a national title, and he's a familiar if unlikely foe for the Wolverines.

 

[Dr Hilarius]

I am not an expert, and I have only watched MI play 3 games this year: PS, tOSU, and AL.

 

What struck me about all of them was the opponents’ offensive ineptitude.

 

Of course, you can say that’s bc MI’s defense is so disruptive, but it wasn’t like the offenses were making great plays and the D was making better plays.

 

The D just played fundamental football and the Os did not.

 

And yes, “fundamental football” is easier said than done, but I know that OBD and the Fuskies do play fundamental football.

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Michigan is 3rd nationally in passing defense (16 int’s vs. 7 TD’s allowed) and 8th in rushing defense. Those numbers look favorable for Michigan, but these rankings are always skewed because of the conferences these teams play in. The best passing defense Washington has played so far is Oregon (13th). The best rushing defense they played was Texas (3rd). 
 

Michigan is the most physical team Washington will face all year, while Washington will be the most dynamic team Michigan will face. In this case I will take brute force over finesse (see 2010 Auburn), although I am somewhat weary of my take because Washington hasn’t lost indoors with Penix. It’s only been 3 games, but Penix loves a climate controlled environment.

[Charles Fischer]

What stunned me from Washington as well were seeing designed quarterback runs!  And Penix ran pretty fast, got good yardage and has no indication of the prior injuries.  This is a BIG element in this game, as a running quarterback (on occasion) can really stress a defense. 

 

As fragile as Penix is?  I was stunned to see it, thus they must have pretty good confidence in his health, and judgment to run downfield and at the right moment---make like an Oregon fan and...

 

Duck!

[tee duke]

Penix combines accuracy with what may be the quickest release among the top teams. Plus great receivers. That will decide the game.

[Jon Joseph]

Picking up on Charles take in regard to the offspring of unmarried parents, Kalen De Boer, UW has not lost a football game in the last 450 days.

 

The winning streak of 21 games is the tops in CFB. Last 10 wins have been by 10 or fewer points. Last 5 wins by one score. That's some darn fine coaching and the wins have not come against a carton of cupcakes. Penix 1st QB with 4500+ yards in back-to-back seasons since some guy named Mahomes did this in 2015/16 at Texas Tech. As Charles notes, 31 rush yards and no sacks was icing on the Husky Texas victory cake. 

 

The UW O will be by far the best O Michigan has played against this season with a far better OL than Bama brought to the Rose Bowl. No QB Michigan has faced has anywhere near the talent of Penix helped out by CFB's best group of WR's and a TE who can catch the football. 

 

How in the heck did Bama beat the Right Coast Dawgs? I guess it's a Saint Nick/Kirby thing? Kirby did win one huge game vs. Nick, but Nick is 5-1 against Smart's UGA teams. 

[OhioDuck]

On 1/2/2024 at 9:41 PM, tee duke said:

Penix combines accuracy with what may be the quickest release among the top teams. Plus great receivers. That will decide the game.

Agreed, everyone is saying, UW hasn't faced a team like Michigan this year. Well turn that around, I live in B1G Slow and Ugly territory here and Michigan hasn't faced a team like UW either.

 

OSU had one great receiver and a few good ones and an adequate QB. That was maybe the best passing offense in the B1G. Washington goes 3 great receivers, a really good tight end and, in my opinion anyway, the best passer in college football. Michigan hasn't come close to facing that this year. 

 

If Penix gets any time to throw at all (and he will at least some of the time) we'll see if Michigan's pass coverage is really that good. 

 

And remember this game is not like the semifinals, they only have one week to prepare. I think advantage pooches on that one. 

 

Michigan's advantage may be in their running game. If I was Washington, I'd load the box and try to make Michigan be a passing team. I think UW has the DBs to cover Michigan's receivers. Where they'll get caught in the passing game is if Michigan gets the run going and then goes play action. That's their game.

 

I'm going out on a limb here, but Mongrels by 10-12. 

[Chas Man]

I expect UW to have their 21 game winning streak come to an end in the same manor as FSU’s 29 game streak in 2014. 59 to 20 sounds about right. 
 

 

 

 

[spartan2785]

While Michigan hasn't seen a QB this year as good as Penix, they did face a great one last year in Stroud, they've matched up against receivers cores as good as UW's, Washington though has not seen a defense as good as Michigan's.  Oregon is probably the most talented defense they've face, and Michigan's on another level compared to us right now. 

 

I think we'll see some actual pressure on Penix.  We've seen that when you can hit Penix he can begin to struggle a bit, we saw it in the second half against Oregon in the first game.  Michigan will stifle the run game, and then get just enough pressure to not allow the long shots to materialize. 

 

Biggest thing that I've seen from UW is the ability to hold up in protection to allow those long developing pass plays the time to get open.  If Michigan can just get enough pressure to speed those throws up, then I think they'll be able to get enough stops to win the game.  

 

I'll go Michigan 31-24

 

 

[Nevada Dawg]

On 1/2/2024 at 3:07 PM, Annie said:

 

I am so happy that both Bama and Texas went down to shut up the ESPN SEC hype machine. ...

I fully understand SEC fatigue in other fan bases. Enjoy the down year but...the South will rise again...and often

[Nevada Dawg]

Interestingly, tonight's discussion of the Natty on the main Dawg site with all the coaches on it comes down fairly clear on the side of the Seattle Dawgs hoisting the trophy next Monday night. Michigan's defense is good, but the argument was that Alabama was by far the most offensively challenged team in the playoffs,.
 

Michigan has not faced an offense, they say, even close to that of Washington, and that Penix and company are going to expose the Michigan secondary big time.  They also have noted that the Washington offensive line is badly underrated (this coming from multiple sources who regularly break down film on trench monsters)

and that Michigan will not be able to stunt and blitz like thy did against Alabama because Penix and the receivers will make them pay dearly if they do.

 

Posters favoring Washington in this one also suspect that Deboer's defensive strategy will likely be to stack the box against the run and force J.J. McCarthy to beat them with his arm, which they don't believe McCarthy can do--at least not to the extent that Penix can put up points against the Wolverines.

 

Having said this, I have to add that one of the posters whose comments I respect most also did say that he had expected Michigan to come up short a few times this year, either outright or against the spread, and been burned by a team that still has a zero in the loss column. So who knows. The bettors think they do, and so far the bigger bettors are going Huskies.

[Charles Fischer]

On 1/2/2024 at 10:08 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

I fully understand SEC fatigue in other fan bases. Enjoy the down year but...the South will rise again...and often

My friend, you are going to have some great competition from the new B1G over the years.

[Just Ducky]

To add what Nevada Dog said about the mutts OLine which plowed over the Ducks. Their D line is also very good.

[Chas Man]

On 1/2/2024 at 10:52 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Mike, great take. UW played a more difficult schedule than Michigan. Michigan's B1G wins, and yes there were opt outs, came against bowl favorites and bowl losers, Ohio State and Penn State.

 

UW's best wins. Twice, sigh, over Oregon bowl winner Oregon and a win onthe road vs. No. 14 Arizona that defeated No. 12 Oklahoma and a road win at a NR SC that just pasted the No. 15 team in the land.

 

The Pac-12 conference in 2023 then was deeper than the ACC, B1G, B12 and even the SEC. I thought this would play out last night. And I think it will play out in Houston.

UW also should have lost to a horrible ASU team at home, but for a travesty no call on an obvious game ending pass interference call, and miraculously escaped a simarly anemic WSU team at home. They are not invincible by any means and could be embarrassed by a much more physical Michigan squad. Just sayin.

[Charles Fischer]

 

[Nevada Dawg]

Michigan's senior experience and leadership is the one factor that keeps me from placing a meaningful  bet on the fuskies this week.  Yet I still expect them to win.

 

My comment about the South rising again was a bit tongue in cheek. But I will caution that simply adding more teams to a conference doesn't necessarily make that conference better, and that goes for all conferences in my opinion. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/3/2024 at 1:31 AM, Nevada Dawg said:

Interestingly, tonight's discussion of the Natty on the main Dawg site with all the coaches on it comes down fairly clear on the side of the Seattle Dawgs hoisting the trophy next Monday night. Michigan's defense is good, but the argument was that Alabama was by far the most offensively challenged team in the playoffs,.
 

Michigan has not faced an offense, they say, even close to that of Washington, and that Penix and company are going to expose the Michigan secondary big time.  They also have noted that the Washington offensive line is badly underrated (this coming from multiple sources who regularly break down film on trench monsters)

and that Michigan will not be able to stunt and blitz like thy did against Alabama because Penix and the receivers will make them pay dearly if they do.

 

Posters favoring Washington in this one also suspect that Deboer's defensive strategy will likely be to stack the box against the run and force J.J. McCarthy to beat them with his arm, which they don't believe McCarthy can do--at least not to the extent that Penix can put up points against the Wolverines.

 

Having said this, I have to add that one of the posters whose comments I respect most also did say that he had expected Michigan to come up short a few times this year, either outright or against the spread, and been burned by a team that still has a zero in the loss column. So who knows. The bettors think they do, and so far the bigger bettors are going Huskies.

Would any Joe Moore trophy winning OL be underrated if it played anywhere but on the Left Coast?

 

Would Penix have lost the Heisman to a guy who went 2-3 against teams with a winning record if he played anywhere other than the Left Coast? BTW, before the Heisman winner arrived in the SEC he wasn't all that on the Left Coast. He was surrounded by better players at LSU. 

 

The 'experts' for some reason believed Texas was going to crush the UW guys because Texas defeated Bama, before Saint Nick kind of righted the ship, and was bigger than UW. 

 

The bias beat lives on. Let's see how Left Coast teams are viewed playing in the B1G that was much weaker than the Pac-12 in 2023. In 2023, especially with having to play 9 conference games, the imploding Pac-12 was the toughest of the P5 conferences. 

 

I note there is criticism above for UW playing a tight game against ASU. With an 8 game conference schedule, UW could have boarded the Chattanooga Choo-Choo instead. 

[Jon Joseph]

Stars matter. Transfers matter. But coaching the game still matters.

 

247 Team Composite Roster Rankings (recruits and transfers) before the start of the 2023 season.

 

No. 1. Alabama / No. 6. Texas/ No. 14. Michigan/ No. 26 Washington - OREGON No.10 

 

Washington's Joe Moore Award winning OL is made up of 5 recruits from high school and no transfers. None of these recruits was ranked higher than No. 170 coming out of high school. UW twice defeated No. 10 ranked OREGON (sigh) and also defeated No. 8 ranked USC before defeating No. 6 Texas in the Sugar Bowl. 

 

Win the champ game and UW will be the first team without a Blue Chip Roster and without a Blue Chip Composite Roster to win a BCS or Playoff champioship.

 

Win the champ game and Michigan will be the first team without a Super Roster, in the top 10 Composite ranking to win a championship. 

 

That's coaching.

[Chas Man]

Texas ranked 116 against the pass this year. One would expect Penix would have put up Bo Nix like numbers.

 

While some would diminish Michigan’s  #1 ranked defense and #2 against the pass statistics “because they didn’t play a passing attack like Penix and company” you would have to agree the windows will be tighter and the task more difficult than vs Texas’ porous secondary. 
 

Also noteworthy:

 

The top rated passing defense Penix faced this year was Oregon at number 54. The rest of the teams all ranked around 100 or worse, with Stanford topping the crappy list at 133. 
 

Judging by the stats, Penix has not faced a good pass defense all year. That will change Monday night.

Edited January 3 by Chas Man

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/3/2024 at 4:59 PM, Chas Man said:

Texas ranked 116 against the pass this year. One would expect Penix would have put up Bo Nix like numbers.

 

While some would diminish Michigan’s  #1 ranked defense and #2 against the pass statistics “because they didn’t play a passing attack like Penix and company” you would have to agree the windows will be tighter and the task more difficult than vs Texas’ porous secondary. 
 

Also noteworthy:

 

The top rated passing defense Penix faced this year was Oregon at number 54. The rest of the teams all ranked around 100 or worse, with Stanford topping the crappy list at 133. 
 

Judging by the stats, Penix has not faced a good pass defense all year. That will change Monday night.

And the O's Michigan faced? The Pac-12 was deeper and better than the B1G this season. Michigan played O-neutered teams Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State in its toughest games. Taulia Tag with some help from his run game would have taken Michigan down.

 

To be plain: The Pac opposition this season was far better than UM played against in the B1G. Far better. And but for Saint Nick mostly owning Kirby Smart, UGA would have defeated Michigan in a 1st round game. Texas is a better team than Michigan with more weapons on O. Why Sark gave up on the ground game?

 

HOWEVER, Sean McDonough had one of the great comments ever in the Sugar Bowl when another Irish guy, Greg McElroy, noted that Quinn Ewerts would have had a first down if he hadn't tripped over his own feet.

 

"Kind of like our crew on Bourbon Street last night."

 

Washington IMO will win the champ game by 10 or more points. McCarthy is a good CFB. UW QB, Penix is a great CFB QB. With far better receivers and playing behind a better OL, by far, than the Bama OL. This is another 'Rose Bowl' matchup with the B1G team coming in overrated. Ask Warren Moon.

Edited January 4 by Jon Joseph

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

Washington says their RB is good to go for next Monday. I saw how he needed help getting off the field. If he plays he will be ineffective. Especially in pass protection.

 

If Washington is one-dimensional the Wolverines will tee off on Penix. They have 8 dudes that they cycle through on their D-Line and all of them are big and nasty. Their defense has no PAC 12 comparison.

[OhioDuck]

Again observing from the heartland, B1G Country, Buckeye Nation.

 

Lots of okay pass defense teams look really good against not so okay passing teams. The B1G was filled with not so okay passing teams this year. Name one top flight passing offense in the B1G... I'll wait... still waiting... OSU, good receiver and inconsistent QB, Penn St. potentially good QB (live arm) but never really put it together (see their play calling)... Wisconsin was play action, had to run first... MSU train wreck... and Minn. and Neb. ugly, just ugly. 

 

PAC defenses are not rated as high, well because 2/3 of the starting QBs in the PAC will be in the NFL soon. 

 

The worst passing offenses in the PAC were at least in the middle of the B1G, maybe higher.

 

PAC offenses were also way more innovative. 

 

Bottom line is PAC was better all around than the B1G this year. It wasn't really that close either.

 

Washington, with a few close calls, ran the table in the PAC, Michigan, with a few close calls, ran the table in the B1G. 

 

Advantage Dogs.

[Just Ducky]

 The difference could be in the mutts o-line. 
 

 Quite possible the best in all the ncaa. 
 

 Also the mutts d- line improvement since the first time we played them.

 

 Although I hate to admit it but Penix is really good and easily should have won the H.

 

 I wouldn’t bet the farm on the Blue team.

 

 Biggest question for me is Johnson healthy?

Edited January 4 by Just Ducky

[Charles Fischer]

 

[Duckluv]

On 1/2/2024 at 9:50 AM, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

This thread is for discussions, analysis, predictions, etc. 

 

Washington has not faced a defense like Michigan’s all season. Texas had a strong DL, but their secondary has been pretty bad all season. The only good passing QB’s that Texas faced all year beat them.

 

My guess is that this game will end up like the Oregon/OSU national championship game in 2015. Washington will hang with Michigan for a while, but the Wolverines running game and defense will grind them down late in the game. Michigan by two scores.

I'm not sure i can root for Washington. Penix/Deboar seem like good classy dudes but it's Washington. I say 28-31 Washington wins. I also say huck the fuskies. Forgive me if I'm not supposed to say that it's my first post.  Least we get to face em both next year! Go Ducks

[Jon Joseph]

I just finished the fast forward replays of The Fiesta Bowl, Rose and Sugar Bowls. Oregon will not be ranked in the final AP Poll top 4 but should be, And Bo? Take a well deserved bow Son.

 

I watched an entire season of CFB. The conference with the best OOC record? And the conference with the best bowl record? The Pac-12. The best team in CFB that eviscerated FSU in its bowl game? Probably Georgia. But Nick except for one time always beats Kirby.

 

Michigan plays bully ball. But Michigan as well as Bama did not play their best ball in the Rose Bowl. Michigan's B1G wins came against 2 teams that failed in the post-season.

 

Michigan will play gutty ball versus Washington, But UW has the better QB and the far better offense in the game Monday night. And Michigan is about to play against the best O it has faced this season by far, including playing Bama and its let's go bowling center in the champ game.

 

This upcoming game reminds me of the game when heavily favored Michigan played under-Dawg UW and QB Warren Moon in the Rose Bowl way back in 1978. Moon, a guy who paved the way for African-American QBs, helped UW win the game by 7 points. 

 

I see another for UW, close game in the champ game. But the Pac-12 (RIP) was the deepest and best conference this season. And UW accomplished something I never thought that I would see. Going 13-0 in the Pac-12 for the first time since Utah and CU signed up. And the UW coach, all-be-it at much lower level of CFB, has won titles. Jim Harbaugh?

 

Can Michigan maul UW? Perhaps? But I think that for Left Coast reasons the UW OL is not as respected (ask Sark) as it should be. And UW just defeated a team that also, earlier in the season, defeated Bama. The QB play and O play improved for Bama over the course of the season after the loss to Texas, but the same D was there against Texas. Six sacks for Michigan vs. Bama, I don't see this against quick release Penix.

 

IMO, Texas is a better team than this Michigan team and Michigan swallowed 3 cup cakes OOC and played B1G dog meat for the most part in the regular season It's Michigan that everyone calls the grittier team. I think the team with equal grit and far more power on O and with the better QB, which matters on all levels of football, will win the game come Monday night.

 

Stats are decieving in CFB. Michigan's D stats? Against what kind of opposition? And the Wolverines O hit the brakes when it played, finally, better opponents. UW had a more difficult SOS and it will win the champ game by 7 or less points and put an exclaimation point on how badly the Pac-12 powers that be screwed up.

 

And next season? If Gabriel stays upright the Ducks win the B1G title and have a great shot at being the 2024/25 champion.

 

Go Purple! Beat Blue! And pave the way for the Pac-4 not having to adjust to the B1G but for the B1G having to adjust to modern CFB.

Edited January 4 by Jon Joseph

[The Grateful Duck]

"(Michigan's) defense has no PAC 12 comparison."

 

And Washington's offense has no B1G comparison.

 

So which is better?

 

UM's offense or UDub's defense? Well, if the Dawgs' defense plays like they played versus OBD (Vegas version) or Texas... Advantage Dawgs.

 

 

Plus, special teams? Advantage Dawgs IF UM performs like they did versus Alabama. They were downright atrocious.

 

And one thing the Ducks and Longhorns learned: the Huskies LOVE playing the disrespected under-dawg card!

 

 

[1Ducker1]

Good D doesnt allow more than 21 points.

[Nevada Dawg]

On 1/3/2024 at 6:38 PM, Just Ducky said:

 The difference could be in the mutts o-line. 
 

 Quite possible the best in all the ncaa. 
 

 Also the mutts d- line improvement since the first time we played them.

 

 Although I hate to admit it but Penix is really good and easily should have won the H.

 

 I wouldn’t bet the farm on the Blue team.

 

 Biggest question for me is Johnson healthy?

I pretty much concur with every line of this post, especially with Penix and the Heisman. And Penix does have that full stable of quality wide receivers. As a group they are better, in my humble opinion, than the bunch in Columbus, OH and certainly better than any of the other playoff entrants.

[Jon Joseph]

Friend The Grateful, UW and Michigan both played Michigan State this season. Both games were played in E. Lansing. 

 

UW 41 - MSU 7 - UW's 3rd win of the season.

 

Michigan 49 - MSU 0 - Michigan's 8th win of the season.

 

Not much to choose from here and best of luck J. Smith.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/3/2024 at 9:50 PM, Charles Fischer said:

 

I don't think Jimbo wants to stick around and deal with the NCAA. If he stays at Michigan he has a big rebuild coming in 2024. Especially if McCarthy goes to the NFL. And Michigan also plays a real opponent OOC, Texas and draws Oregon, USC, UW and of course, Ohio State. 

 

Win Monday and he'll accomplish what he set out to do at his alma mater. I think the Super Bowl loss to his brother still bothers Jim.

 

Next up in Ann Arbor? Brian Kelly? Big buyout but the word is Brian wants to return to the midwest. 

[Solar]

I've been mulling this one over a bit.

 

Texas was a bully ball type of team like Michigan. They don't have as good of a pass defense per stats, but let's be honest, the coverage a saw from Texas in the Sugar Bowl was crazy tight, but it didn't matter. And Texas pash rush is statistically pretty good but they got no sacks and the hurries were innefective.

 

The thing that stuck out to me most was Texas consistently getting 7-12 yards per run, but kept trying to pass. I think UW were giving them the run and Texas was too stupid to take it.

 

BUT I do think the key to this games is how well UM runs the ball. If the running game is working for Michigan they will be more than happy not to throw a single pass and be unstoppable every possession, even if they are down a couple of scores in the first half.

 

I think this the reason UM is -4 on the spread, and I will go with that too with full realization that the game is nearly a toss up.

Edited January 4 by Solar

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

The vast majority of this Michigan’s  defense played in the Ohio State game last year when Stroud was QB and MH Jr. and Egbuka were 1K yard receivers. I know it was 2022, but Michigan only lost one DB from that team, so they know what it’s like to see a high powered passing attack that nearly beat UGA last year. They also have two all-Americans at CB this year.

 

Some of you will say last year doesn’t matter, but I think it helps Michigan with how they will prepare. It might also help Michigan that Washington has a hobbled 220 lb RB who they rely heavily on for TD’s in the red zone and who is tremendous at blitz pick-up’s. Michigan has also held every team they’ve played under their PPG average.

 

Washington’s advantage is they don’t have to play in the elements which is where Penix struggles. I think their disadvantage is their run defense which plays into Michigan’s strength. I think Michigan slows the game and doesn’t let Penix get into a rhythm. The Wolverines kneel on the ball to end the game.