A Super Fast, Way Too Early Prediction for 2022

[FishDuck Article]

The 2021 season wrapped up last night, which makes today officially the first day of the off-season. During the next eight months, we will all no doubt experience analysis paralysis of what to expect from our 2022 Oregon Ducks. There will be recruiting and transfer portal updates, getting familiar with the new coaching staff, spring football, and the hype, excitement ...

 

Read the full article here...

[Mike West]

Quick question Darren: was it too unrealistic to expect an undefeated season after the victory in Columbus? 

 

The talent was there. We saw what happened in the Alamo Bowl.  The was some extremely bad decision-making this year in my opinion. 

 

Moving forward, is there any shot at another September surprise in your opinion?  Do we have enough defense to keep the game close?  I see SO Much talent in that side of the ball.  

 

Can't wait till the Spring Game!

[MaiTaiDuck]

On 1/11/2022 at 2:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

The 2021 season wrapped up last night, which makes today officially the first day of the off-season. During the next eight months, we will all no doubt experience analysis paralysis of what to expect from our 2022 Oregon Ducks. There will be recruiting and transfer portal updates, getting familiar with the new coaching staff, spring football, and the hype, excitement ...

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Read the full article here...

I agree Darren and I also believe the Ducks schedule sets them up for 11-1. YAYYYYYYY.

[MaiTaiDuck]

On 1/11/2022 at 2:45 AM, Mike West said:

Quick question Darren: was it too unrealistic to expect an undefeated season after the victory in Columbus? 

 

The talent was there. We saw what happened in the Alamo Bowl.  The was some extremely bad decision-making this year in my opinion. 

 

Moving forward, is there any shot at another September surprise in your opinion?  Do we have enough defense to keep the game close?  I see SO Much talent in that side of the ball.  

 

Can't wait till the Spring Game!

Mike yes you would have thought after that great win and first win against OS. It should have ended that way and in the playoff's. This was all on Mario and that's just my opinion.

[Duck 1972]

I believe the injuries were the biggest factor in the weirdness of how last year played out.

 

We lost over 10 starters to season ending injuries. It was to much to overcome.

 

I doubt if any team could have. Look at Alabama with just missing some WR last night. Not good.

[UtahDuck]

I don't know if I am ready to give Oregon a 9-0 in conference record. The pac is bad, but honestly no team has run the table in conference so it is hard for me to see it happening with a first year head coach.

 

Teams oregon should run over. UW, Stan, CAL, COL, UCLA, and OSU,

 

Teams I have Questions about. WSU,  and AZ.

 

Hard fought games. UT.

 

I think as a whole the P12 north is really bad, I don't see CAL getting any better. OSU needs to prove a lot more otherwise I can't expect them of being +/- a game within .500. UW has a mess to clean up and with all of the defections and the fact the staff plans to keep the current exclusive recruiting plan i'm stoked.

 

The only north team I have questions on is WSU. following Rolo's firing WSU went 3-3. The three losses included a 2 point loss to byu a 14 point loss to Oregon and a 3 point loss Central Michigan. They beat ASU, AZ and UW. So my first part is they didn't really beat anyone during this but they also kept some close games and finished out well and make a bowl game. This was all done while running an offense that no coach had called before because Rolo ran the Run & Shoot.

 

To also follow up, with WSU, I think they are upgrading at QB. Cameron ward is transfering from Incarnate Word as a 4 star player Cameron through 4648 Yards 47 TD and 10 INT's completing 65% of his passes. He will in my opinion be the most accomplished QB in the pac 12 north next season. While Jackson JR at WSU is gone they still have very accomplished Harris contemplating a return and Stribling to catch balls. This team has a good chance to improve upon their 7-6 record in 2022.

 

The other team I have questions on is AZ. Look AZ has been bad for years but with that they currently have the number 2 class in the pac 12 in recruiting(247) and while some of that may be due to the size of their class, they still have the number 6 class per average recruit. What makes me have questions about AZ is primarily at WR. AZ has added UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing who is really good and their best recruit is the Wide receiver who flipped from Oregon Tetiaroa McMillan. Elite Wide receivers can make up for a lot of deficiencies in the game. AZ also had the worst luck at QB in 2021 with 3 making starts. I think Jordon McCloud should be a decent to above average QB when given the time. 

 

If I were a betting man(most days i'm not). I would think one of these games has the greatest potential to be an upset. Both are away games, both are earlyish games in the season(week 4-WSU, Week 6-AZ) for a brand new coaching staff. I also honestly think both teams are better than their 2021 record and both have made key player improvements in the offseason. 

[1Ducker1]

11-1 sounds just about right to me.

[Haywarduck]

12-0 until I see something to indicate otherwise!

[30Duck]

Darren, complete homer perhaps, but an L to Georgia is reasonable. Could Oregon finally become the first Pac-12 team to run the table? In the North DeLaura leaves, but it hasn't mattered who they have at QB, he'll be good. OSU at Corvallis this time, with the bulldozers pushed to the side for games. Cal, Stanford and that other team can't see any reason to predict an L in any of those games. 

 

Down South, DTR is back at QB, will Chip be back at Coach? AZ is improving, most of it on offense, and still has a steep climb to get to good. Utah at home this time looks to be the biggest test, 

[idontrollonshobbas]

On 1/11/2022 at 9:03 AM, UtahDuck said:

I don't know if I am ready to give Oregon a 9-0 in conference record. The pac is bad, but honestly no team has run the table in conference so it is hard for me to see it happening with a first year head coach.

 

Teams oregon should run over. UW, Stan, CAL, COL, UCLA, and OSU,

 

Teams I have Questions about. WSU,  and AZ.

 

Hard fought games. UT.

 

I think as a whole the P12 north is really bad, I don't see CAL getting any better. OSU needs to prove a lot more otherwise I can't expect them of being +/- a game within .500. UW has a mess to clean up and with all of the defections and the fact the staff plans to keep the current exclusive recruiting plan i'm stoked.

 

The only north team I have questions on is WSU. following Rolo's firing WSU went 3-3. The three losses included a 2 point loss to byu a 14 point loss to Oregon and a 3 point loss Central Michigan. They beat ASU, AZ and UW. So my first part is they didn't really beat anyone during this but they also kept some close games and finished out well and make a bowl game. This was all done while running an offense that no coach had called before because Rolo ran the Run & Shoot.

 

To also follow up, with WSU, I think they are upgrading at QB. Cameron ward is transfering from Incarnate Word as a 4 star player Cameron through 4648 Yards 47 TD and 10 INT's completing 65% of his passes. He will in my opinion be the most accomplished QB in the pac 12 north next season. While Jackson JR at WSU is gone they still have very accomplished Harris contemplating a return and Stribling to catch balls. This team has a good chance to improve upon their 7-6 record in 2022.

 

The other team I have questions on is AZ. Look AZ has been bad for years but with that they currently have the number 2 class in the pac 12 in recruiting(247) and while some of that may be due to the size of their class, they still have the number 6 class per average recruit. What makes me have questions about AZ is primarily at WR. AZ has added UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing who is really good and their best recruit is the Wide receiver who flipped from Oregon Tetiaroa McMillan. Elite Wide receivers can make up for a lot of deficiencies in the game. AZ also had the worst luck at QB in 2021 with 3 making starts. I think Jordon McCloud should be a decent to above average QB when given the time. 

 

If I were a betting man(most days i'm not). I would think one of these games has the greatest potential to be an upset. Both are away games, both are earlyish games in the season(week 4-WSU, Week 6-AZ) for a brand new coaching staff. I also honestly think both teams are better than their 2021 record and both have made key player improvements in the offseason. 

Plus, De Laura is going to UA now.  

 

Through the years and coaches, these are the teams that always beat us when they shouldn't:

 

1. Stanford.  Home or Away, they love to be our lone North division loss.  

2. WSU: see above.

3. Away in the Desert late in the season: whether UA or the Fork, they play like the Steelers when we come to town.  Often includes a starting QB season-ending injury as well.

 

I usually reject mono-causal explanations, but this board convinced me that CMC was a game day weakness most Saturdays.  Goofy scheme,  rigid play-calling, poor clock management.   Injuries clearly played a role, but you have to expect attrition every season.....so roster management may be a piece of the problem in 2021?

 

I frankly wonder about the "talent composition score" or whatever it is that the recruiting sites tout as the holy grail of championship team construction.  Sure, the past NC's have had stacked rosters.  But, those sites hype recruiting for subscriptions.  They get more excited about recruiting than the games half of the time.  

 

I think the ratings are less accurate the further down the list of top guys you go.  Maybe the top 100 are pretty easy to spot and the Blue Bloods take 95% of them.  But, I feel that ranking recruits number 101-500 is pure mysticism that the sites posit as rocket science.  For example, I will take any southern 2-star over a 4-star West Coast recruit.  I think especially OR and WA recruits are overrated. 

 

So, did the Ducks underperform this year because of Mario, AB, injuries or was the roster talent overrated?  To predict an 11-1 season next year indicates to me that one thinks the problem was mostly MC.  While I have come around to his deficiencies as a coach, I wonder if his recruiting prowess was, in part, a fallacy of the rankings and chasing top 10 classes rather than proper evaluation?  

 

If so, Lanning has even more work to do than better schemes, game plans and clock management.  He has to maximize a roster that may have a lot of bloat on it. Plus, he has to overcome the monkey on our backs of that list above...the teams that slay dreams.

 

I thought 11-1 was possible this season.   Not so sure I have that confidence going into 2022, despite Darren's convincing arguments.   If I am betting the ranch (it would have to be with a gun to my head), I say the O/U wins is 8.  Definite losses: Georgia, Utah.   Possible losses: BYU, Stanford (always), WSU, UA, OSU

[Darren Perkins]

On 1/11/2022 at 2:45 AM, Mike West said:

Quick question Darren: was it too unrealistic to expect an undefeated season after the victory in Columbus? 

 

The talent was there. We saw what happened in the Alamo Bowl.  The was some extremely bad decision-making this year in my opinion. 

 

Moving forward, is there any shot at another September surprise in your opinion?  Do we have enough defense to keep the game close?  I see SO Much talent in that side of the ball.  

 

Can't wait till the Spring Game!

 

Completely not too unrealistic. Georgia should be very good, but could have at least a slight drop off on both sides of the ball, Bo Nix could have a magical game, the Ducks have a puncher's chance. But, if  i was going to put money on it ....

 

Going into 2021, the 11-1 prediction was mostly based on a loss in Columbus and then run the table. But, of course it didn't work out that, but it was only the meltdown in Palo Alto that cost the Ducks 11-1. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 1/11/2022 at 3:10 AM, MaiTaiDuck said:

I agree Darren and I also believe the Ducks schedule sets them up for 11-1. YAYYYYYYY.

 

Just gotta avoid the "Stanford Surprise" type of games, i'm thinking the new coaching staff won't let that happen. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 1/11/2022 at 3:13 AM, MaiTaiDuck said:

Mike yes you would have thought after that great win and first win against OS. It should have ended that way and in the playoff's. This was all on Mario and that's just my opinion.

 

If we had lost a close game at Utah, we could have lived with that, but the Stanford loss AND the no-show "Assault in Salt Lake" were inexcusable.

[Darren Perkins]

On 1/11/2022 at 8:51 AM, Duck 1972 said:

I believe the injuries were the biggest factor in the weirdness of how last year played out.

 

We lost over 10 starters to season ending injuries. It was to much to overcome.

 

I doubt if any team could have. Look at Alabama with just missing some WR last night. Not good.

 

Yup, injuries certainly added up, but the loss to Stanford and the no-shows against Utah were dumbfounding. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 1/11/2022 at 9:03 AM, UtahDuck said:

I don't know if I am ready to give Oregon a 9-0 in conference record. The pac is bad, but honestly no team has run the table in conference so it is hard for me to see it happening with a first year head coach.

 

Teams oregon should run over. UW, Stan, CAL, COL, UCLA, and OSU,

 

Teams I have Questions about. WSU,  and AZ.

 

Hard fought games. UT.

 

I think as a whole the P12 north is really bad, I don't see CAL getting any better. OSU needs to prove a lot more otherwise I can't expect them of being +/- a game within .500. UW has a mess to clean up and with all of the defections and the fact the staff plans to keep the current exclusive recruiting plan i'm stoked.

 

The only north team I have questions on is WSU. following Rolo's firing WSU went 3-3. The three losses included a 2 point loss to byu a 14 point loss to Oregon and a 3 point loss Central Michigan. They beat ASU, AZ and UW. So my first part is they didn't really beat anyone during this but they also kept some close games and finished out well and make a bowl game. This was all done while running an offense that no coach had called before because Rolo ran the Run & Shoot.

 

To also follow up, with WSU, I think they are upgrading at QB. Cameron ward is transfering from Incarnate Word as a 4 star player Cameron through 4648 Yards 47 TD and 10 INT's completing 65% of his passes. He will in my opinion be the most accomplished QB in the pac 12 north next season. While Jackson JR at WSU is gone they still have very accomplished Harris contemplating a return and Stribling to catch balls. This team has a good chance to improve upon their 7-6 record in 2022.

 

The other team I have questions on is AZ. Look AZ has been bad for years but with that they currently have the number 2 class in the pac 12 in recruiting(247) and while some of that may be due to the size of their class, they still have the number 6 class per average recruit. What makes me have questions about AZ is primarily at WR. AZ has added UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing who is really good and their best recruit is the Wide receiver who flipped from Oregon Tetiaroa McMillan. Elite Wide receivers can make up for a lot of deficiencies in the game. AZ also had the worst luck at QB in 2021 with 3 making starts. I think Jordon McCloud should be a decent to above average QB when given the time. 

 

If I were a betting man(most days i'm not). I would think one of these games has the greatest potential to be an upset. Both are away games, both are earlyish games in the season(week 4-WSU, Week 6-AZ) for a brand new coaching staff. I also honestly think both teams are better than their 2021 record and both have made key player improvements in the offseason. 

 

Thanks for the post, had to look up Incarnate Word , so there is my learning something new everyday for today. Yeah, it's very hard to run the table, even the 2000's Trojans had a hard time doing that and were usually tripped up by a less talented team. 10-2 might be a little more realistic, but dang it, 11-1, let's just do it. 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Lanning’s D held #2 MU and #1 Bama to less combined points in two playoff games than Mario held Utah to in just one game. 
 

I’ll take the Fighting Lannings going 11-1. 

[UtahDuck]

On 1/11/2022 at 9:37 AM, idontrollonshobbas said:

I usually reject mono-causal explanations, but this board convinced me that CMC was a game day weakness most Saturdays.  Goofy scheme,  rigid play-calling, poor clock management.   Injuries clearly played a role, but you have to expect attrition every season.....so roster management may be a piece of the problem in 2021?

 

I frankly wonder about the "talent composition score" or whatever it is that the recruiting sites tout as the holy grail of championship team construction.  Sure, the past NC's have had stacked rosters.  But, those sites hype recruiting for subscriptions.  They get more excited about recruiting than the games half of the time.  

 

I think the ratings are less accurate the further down the list of top guys you go.  Maybe the top 100 are pretty easy to spot and the Blue Bloods take 95% of them.  But, I feel that ranking recruits number 101-500 is pure mysticism that the sites posit as rocket science.  For example, I will take any southern 2-star over a 4-star West Coast recruit.  I think especially OR and WA recruits are overrated. 

 

So, did the Ducks underperform this year because of Mario, AB, injuries or was the roster talent overrated?  To predict an 11-1 season next year indicates to me that one thinks the problem was mostly MC.  While I have come around to his deficiencies as a coach, I wonder if his recruiting prowess was, in part, a fallacy of the rankings and chasing top 10 classes rather than proper evaluation?  

 

If so, Lanning has even more work to do than better schemes, game plans and clock management.  He has to maximize a roster that may have a lot of bloat on it. Plus, he has to overcome the monkey on our backs of that list above...the teams that slay dreams.

 

I thought 11-1 was possible this season.   Not so sure I have that confidence going into 2022, despite Darren's convincing arguments.   If I am betting the ranch (it would have to be with a gun to my head), I say the O/U wins is 8.  Definite losses: Georgia, Utah.   Possible losses: BYU, Stanford (always), WSU, UA, OSU

 

You have a lot to unpack here so i will try and keep this simple because i disagree with a lot of what you said.

 

I do believe Cristobal held us back with a lot of what you said(playcalling, clock management, and scheme). This isn't to say that injuries didn't play a roll. I look specifically at ILB where for a good portion of the season we were down to 1 starter, 1 safety converted to ILB and Walk ons. There's a reason we got passed all over in the middle of the field... We had 3-5 guys injured in this depth. 

 

Recruiting, Yes, Rivals, 247 and on3 make a living projecting recruiting. but to dictate that a SEC 2 star across the board is better than a west 4 star is not something I agree with. If these rating systems actually projected an Southern 2 star to be better than an oregon 4 star they would be ranked as such because I can promise they make more money of southern subscribers than they do PNW. 

 

With rankings in general you need to take it with a bit of salt anyway. I think it's a good baseline but it isn't the end all be all final answer. It's also why you need to look at how many schools have offered a player and what schools are offering the player. Would you take a player that is a three star that has offers from 10 SEC schools, 9 Big 10 schools, and 11 Pac 12 or a 4 star that has three Pac 12 offers... 

 

To top off recruiting, no system is perfect, players will get over evaluated, players will get under evaluated, walk ons will earn scholarships and players will be dropped from the team. it's the nature of college athletics. But you could say the same about the NFL, Tua, Trevor Lawrence both got better evaluations than herbert yet everybody would pick herbert today.

 

With that I don't think the Oregon teams recruited by Cristobal were/are overrated. their are inevitably players that are overrated and underrated. And to understand this go to the 247 and you can quickly view the players that signed and how many other offers those players had. Oregon was frequently beating out SEC teams including alabama for players. If anything I would say this team had an issue at developing talent. Especially at key areas like QB.

 

As a final note, I think 8 wins is a bad season for oregon next year and the O/U should be at 10. I would say UGA is a sure loss. after that I think you have a lot wiggle room. BYU is a meh team that took advantage of some really bad teams in the pac last year. at best this game is a 50/50 game to date. depending on how the QB shakes out in spring this game moves to 75/25 Oregon. WSU is probably 65/35 or 60/40 game. Stanford is bad, and clock management and playcalling alone should fix that game. 90/10.

 

OSU is losing way more than they are gaining. Oregon should have an easy time with them. 75/25. UA will be interesting especially in the desert. The game should be 80/20 but to me it feels more 60/40 or 55/45. as for UT I think they should get the benefit of the doubt and be 40/60 or 30/70 unless but as it is another late season game oregon could close that gap to 50/50 if they make the right improvements. 

 

All in all oregon should be a minimum 9-3 for 2022. I mean oregon suffered a ton of injuries had horrid play calling and clock management and had brown starting this season and we went 10-2 during the regular season. If some of that is fixed oregon is easily 11-1. 

[idontrollonshobbas]

On 1/11/2022 at 10:22 AM, UtahDuck said:

You have a lot to unpack here so i will try and keep this simple because i disagree with a lot of what you said.

 

I do believe Cristobal held us back with a lot of what you said(playcalling, clock management, and scheme). This isn't to say that injuries didn't play a roll. I look specifically at ILB where for a good portion of the season we were down to 1 starter, 1 safety converted to ILB and Walk ons. There's a reason we got passed all over in the middle of the field... We had 3-5 guys injured in this depth. 

 

Recruiting, Yes, Rivals, 247 and on3 make a living projecting recruiting. but to dictate that a SEC 2 star across the board is better than a west 4 star is just silly. If these rating systems actually projected an Southern 2 star to be better than an oregon 4 star they would be ranked as such because I can promise they make more money of southern subscribers than they do PNW. 

 

With rankings in general you need to take it with a bit of salt anyway. I think it's a good baseline but it isn't the end all be all final answer. It's also why you need to look at how many schools have offered a player and what schools are offering the player. Would you take a player that is a three star that has offers from 10 SEC schools, 9 Big 10 schools, and 11 Pac 12 or a 4 star that has three Pac 12 offers... 

 

To top off recruiting, no system is perfect, players will get over evaluated, players will get under evaluated, walk ons will earn scholarships and players will be dropped from the team. it's the nature of college athletics. But you could say the same about the NFL, Tua, Trevor Lawrence both got better evaluations than herbert yet everybody would pick herbert today.

 

With that I don't think the Oregon teams recruited by Cristobal were/are overrated. their are inevitably players that are overrated and underrated. And to understand this go to the 247 and you can quickly view the players that signed and how many other offers those players had. Oregon was frequently beating out SEC teams including alabama for players. If anything I would say this team had an issue at developing talent. Especially at key areas like QB.

 

As a final note, I think 8 wins is a bad season for oregon next year and the O/U should be at 10. I would say UGA is a sure loss. after that I think you have a lot wiggle room. BYU is a meh team that took advantage of some really bad teams in the pac last year. at best this game is a 50/50 game to date. depending on how the QB shakes out in spring this game moves to 75/25 Oregon. WSU is probably 65/35 or 60/40 game. Stanford is bad, and clock management and playcalling alone should fix that game. 90/10. OSU is losing way more than they are gaining. Oregon should have an easy time with them. 75/25. UA will be interesting especially in the desert. The game should be 80/20 but to me it feels more 60/40 or 55/45. as for UT I think they should get the benefit of the doubt and be 40/60 or 30/70 unless but as it is another late season game oregon could close that gap to 50/50 if they make the right improvements. 

 

All in all oregon should be a minimum 9-3 for 2022. I mean oregon suffered a ton of injuries had horrid play calling and clock management and had brown starting this season and we went 10-2 during the regular season. If some of that is fixed oregon is easily 11-1. 

Thanks, Utah....I am back off the ledge now.  I appreciate the thoughtful pushback.  

 

I can go with the narrative that the problem with the roster isn't talent, but development.  Plus scheme played a role in dampening enthusiasm some I am guessing.

 

As for recruiting rankings.....perhaps I am guilty of oversimplification.  I wish there was a look-back at recruiting ranking efficiency. I have to operate off of my memory and anecdtoe.  But, the number of PNW 4 and 5 star talent that has not lived up to potential that I remember is not small.  Most of them beat out by the 2 and 3 star players on our roster.  We know that in the past, site moderator did rankings (poorly, I might add) which colors my judgment as well.

 

Maybe the problem with the rankings for me is scale.  Not all 5 stars are alike.  KT was probably worth 7 stars for example.  In the 3 star category the range is huge.....a high 3 star is degrees above a low 3 star it seems.

 

In any event, I hope you are right and the sky is the limit next year.....I thought the same thing last year too.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/11/2022 at 6:10 AM, MaiTaiDuck said:

I agree Darren and I also believe the Ducks schedule sets them up for 11-1. YAYYYYYYY.

 

The Ducks open 'at' #1 Georgia without a game to help break in a new QB and a new O and a new D.  BYU finished 19 in the final AP. (Oregon 22.) BYU was without its starting QB in its bowl game. The Ducks play 5 conference road games. Since CU and Utah joined the conference no school has gone undefeated in conference play.

 

Utah brings back much of the team that twice embarrassed the Ducks and signed a LB out of the portal who was Florida's leading tackler in 2021. The Utes best RB who could have gone pro is back. Starting QB Rising is back. DTR Is returning for another season at UCLA.

 

Love the optimism but I'm looking at 9-3 or 8/4 in 2022.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Jon Joseph

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/11/2022 at 11:51 AM, Duck 1972 said:

I believe the injuries were the biggest factor in the weirdness of how last year played out.

 

We lost over 10 starters to season ending injuries. It was to much to overcome.

 

I doubt if any team could have. Look at Alabama with just missing some WR last night. Not good.

 

1 1st round WR Metchie did not play for Bama in the game. 1st road WR Williamson went down early on. The younger Bama wideouts could not replace these guys. At least 1 TD was dropped by a Bama receiver.

[Darren Perkins]

On 1/11/2022 at 9:37 AM, idontrollonshobbas said:

Plus, De Laura is going to UA now.  

 

Through the years and coaches, these are the teams that always beat us when they shouldn't:

 

1. Stanford.  Home or Away, they love to be our lone North division loss.  

2. WSU: see above.

3. Away in the Desert late in the season: whether UA or the Fork, they play like the Steelers when we come to town.  Often includes a starting QB season-ending injury as well.

 

I usually reject mono-causal explanations, but this board convinced me that CMC was a game day weakness most Saturdays.  Goofy scheme,  rigid play-calling, poor clock management.   Injuries clearly played a role, but you have to expect attrition every season.....so roster management may be a piece of the problem in 2021?

 

I frankly wonder about the "talent composition score" or whatever it is that the recruiting sites tout as the holy grail of championship team construction.  Sure, the past NC's have had stacked rosters.  But, those sites hype recruiting for subscriptions.  They get more excited about recruiting than the games half of the time.  

 

I think the ratings are less accurate the further down the list of top guys you go.  Maybe the top 100 are pretty easy to spot and the Blue Bloods take 95% of them.  But, I feel that ranking recruits number 101-500 is pure mysticism that the sites posit as rocket science.  For example, I will take any southern 2-star over a 4-star West Coast recruit.  I think especially OR and WA recruits are overrated. 

 

So, did the Ducks underperform this year because of Mario, AB, injuries or was the roster talent overrated?  To predict an 11-1 season next year indicates to me that one thinks the problem was mostly MC.  While I have come around to his deficiencies as a coach, I wonder if his recruiting prowess was, in part, a fallacy of the rankings and chasing top 10 classes rather than proper evaluation?  

 

If so, Lanning has even more work to do than better schemes, game plans and clock management.  He has to maximize a roster that may have a lot of bloat on it. Plus, he has to overcome the monkey on our backs of that list above...the teams that slay dreams.

 

I thought 11-1 was possible this season.   Not so sure I have that confidence going into 2022, despite Darren's convincing arguments.   If I am betting the ranch (it would have to be with a gun to my head), I say the O/U wins is 8.  Definite losses: Georgia, Utah.   Possible losses: BYU, Stanford (always), WSU, UA, OSU

 

There is a direct correlation between success and having a highly rated class by the two big big recruiting sites, Rivals and 247. It's a numbers games, you amass talent, of course many highly rated guys don't live up to expectations, but many do. So the more high-rated guys you have, you simply increase your odds of producing top-notch talent on the field. 

 

The Ducks did go 10-2 this year, and I'm certainly not seeing a drop in talent, in fact, Oregon was a very young team this past season and now those guys have more experience, and Bo Nix may well prove to be a solid upgrade over Brown. Before this season, many people on this site were thinking that the Ducks were a year away, and that in 2021 they would win 8-9 games, but got to 10, they had their unexplainable slip up to Stanford. And sure, Oregon could get upset by the likes of the Cougs, but those type of games are ones we should definitely win. 

[Washington Waddler]

On 1/11/2022 at 2:45 AM, Mike West said:

Quick question Darren: was it too unrealistic to expect an undefeated season after the victory in Columbus? 

     Don’t mean to dismiss our effort in Columbus;  it was everything and more that’s been said about it. However, comparing to how the tree nuts played in that game to the rest of there season tells me we caught them on a very very good day. 
 

     Based on that notion, it brings me back around to inexperienced head coaching, and MC not knowing how to balance his natural inclination to applaud great effort with bringing his team back to earth by reminding them how dumb luck always plays a part in beating teams like tosu.
 

     The idea of course is not to dismiss a win, but to balance the highs and lows, and maintain focused effort going into the next game — a mind set I don’t think we managed very well. 
 

     Can’t call it a prediction, but one thing I’d like to see in 2022 is our inexperienced head coach relying on his veteran assistants to help keep the team focused.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/11/2022 at 2:05 PM, Washington Waddler said:

     Don’t mean to dismiss our effort in Columbus;  it was everything and more that’s been said about it. However, comparing to how the tree nuts played in that game to the rest of there season tells me we caught them on a very very good day. 
 

     Based on that notion, it brings me back around to inexperienced head coaching, and MC not knowing how to balance his natural inclination to applaud great effort with bringing his team back to earth by reminding them how dumb luck always plays a part in beating teams like tosu.
 

     The idea of course is not to dismiss a win, but to balance the highs and lows, and maintain focused effort going into the next game — a mind set I don’t think we managed very well. 
 

     Can’t call it a prediction, but one thing I’d like to see in 2022 is our inexperienced head coach relying on his veteran assistants to help keep the team focused.

 

tOSU's D by tOSU standards was not good all season long. including in the Rose Bowl. Why Ryan Day paid big money to poach the OK ST DC. 

[Darren Perkins]

On 1/11/2022 at 10:38 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

The Ducks open 'at' #1 Georgia without a game to help break in a new QB and a new O and a new D.  BYU finished 19 in the final AP. (Oregon 22.) BYU was without its starting QB in its bowl game. The Ducks play 5 conference road games. Since CU and Utah joined the conference no school has gone undefeated in conference play.

 

Utah brings back much of the team that twice embarrassed the Ducks and signed a LB out of the portal who was Florida's leading tackler in 2021. The Utes best RB who could have gone pro is back. Starting QB Rising is back. DTR Is returning for another season at UCLA.

 

Love the optimism but I'm looking at 9-3 or 8/4 in 2022.

 

8 or 9 wins is perfectly reasonable, I could meet you halfway though at 10 wins. 

 

I'm not afraid at all of BYU at home though, we'll see the real BYU this year against better competition and they won't look as good. The 5-0 against the PAc-12 was against a parade of the poor to mediocre (Utah before they got good). I'm so over the Chip "might do something this year, " thinking, he's not, especially since he floundered away last season after the LSU (who turned out to be not so good) win, so no fear there. 

 

Almost every team has a dangerous player or presents some sort of a challenge that gives them a chance to beat the Ducks, but the Ducks went 10-2 this year with poor coaching, i'm betting they'll have good coaching this year. Good coaches make sure their teams beats less talented teams, i'm banking we've made the right hire. 

[Charles Fischer]

Fun article, especially after what we saw a defense can do last night.  A defense 70% as good would shut-down the Pac-12 in games, and give us more than enough slack to outscore the other team.

 

While I think your 11-1 is plausible, it is still too early for me to give my prediction yet.  But I am feeling a lot better about it than I did a few weeks ago!

[noDucknewby]

Non-conference prediction 2-1, but could go 1-2.

 

Conference 8-1, but could go 7-2 or even 6-3.  Don't see us going 9-0, since it hasn't happened yet in the P12 and we have new staff/systems to learn.

 

We should win the north regardless, it's just a train-wreck.  P12 championship against Utah or USC (most likely in my book) a toss-up.

 

I put over/under on wins at 9 not counting the P12 championship.

[Steven A]

On 1/11/2022 at 9:27 AM, Haywarduck said:

12-0 until I see something to indicate otherwise!

Now there is a glass 1/2 full x's 2.

[WolfDuck]

I'm with Charles on this one -- too early for me to be firm on my prediction! But here are the thoughts swirling in my head...

 

It all starts on the lines. The OL coming back nearly in its entirety is huge. Ducks should have one of the best OLs in the country imo. Having Popo, Ware-Hudson, Dorlus, and Swinson back on the defensive side is big. Truth be told, we will need to recruit bigger, better D Linemen if we are going to look anything like the defense we saw last night. But for next year, this is an incredibly talented, tested group that can set the tone for stability in the season.

 

Linebackers are ready to feast. Do you not simply salivate at the thought of Flowe + Sewell + Funa with Brown + Jackson in relief? I watched the blitzing scheme last night and couldn't help but imagine that our incredibly talented LB corps must be itching to get on the field. I just listed two former 5* and three former 4* recruits! My bold prediction is, if they stay healthy are coached up by Lanning and Co., this is among the top LB corps in the nation and Sewell and Flowe are game-wreckers.

 

A Nix floor is manageable -- with a potential Thompson ceiling within reach. I hear the concern. And I feel it too. But this is shrewd roster management. Setting the QB floor for a new coaching staff at a former 5* recruit who is familiar with the system, cut his teeth on SEC defenses and can make plays is wise. Then you go out and let the others compete to beat him out. Either way, with strong line play and a very talented group of skill players around him...I think Nix will be fine. And if Thompson beats him, that means he's ready -- and likely darn good.

 

With all that said, my VERY VERY early guess is...

 

10-3. A loss to GA is to be expected (but, as I'll be headed up to the game, competitive would be nice!). I'm going to give BYU the edge right now as that feels like a space where a coaching staff and offense still jelling may struggle. And then dropping a conference game along the way -- maybe it's Utah at home as they barrel toward a playoff berth? Maybe Arizona sneaks up and bites us in the desert? Either way, I see us winning the North and avenging our 2021 loss by taking the Pac-12 title and heading to the Rose Bowl.

 

Is it September yet?!

[Charles Fischer]

WolfDuck....that is a GREAT post.  Glad to have you posting often and your thoughts about the trenches in 2022 are right-on!

[LADuck]

Will go 10 - 2 this upcoming year followed by 11 - 1 and playoff appearance in 2023!

 

Good things coming for the Ducks. Really going to be fun watching the recruiting results pick up.

[MaiTaiDuck]

On 1/11/2022 at 2:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

The 2021 season wrapped up last night, which makes today officially the first day of the off-season. During the next eight months, we will all no doubt experience analysis paralysis of what to expect from our 2022 Oregon Ducks. There will be recruiting and transfer portal updates, getting familiar with the new coaching staff, spring football, and the hype, excitement ...

 

Read the full article here...

Love it and thank you! Can we dream of something that can dominate Pac 12 offenses.

[MaiTaiDuck]

On 1/11/2022 at 10:38 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

The Ducks open 'at' #1 Georgia without a game to help break in a new QB and a new O and a new D.  BYU finished 19 in the final AP. (Oregon 22.) BYU was without its starting QB in its bowl game. The Ducks play 5 conference road games. Since CU and Utah joined the conference no school has gone undefeated in conference play.

 

Utah bringWe hads back much of the team that twice embarrassed the Ducks and signed a LB out of the portal who was Florida's leading tackler in 2021. The Utes best RB who could have gone pro is back. Starting QB Rising is back. DTR Is returning for another season at UCLA.

 

Love the optimism but I'm looking at 9-3 or 8/4 in 2022.

If we get the right QB whether it's Nix or Thompson all bets are off and I can think these guy's will be coached up for success and that means taking back the conference and there's just way to much talent right now for this to not be a 11-1 team. We had Hebert and because of Mario's infinite wisdom not could have under the right coaching been the number 1 QB. So talent's there I know now it's up to Dillingham to work his method's into both QBs.