What if it Ends up Working Out for Mario at Miami?

[Quietduck]

I have an honest question?  I'm not trying to accuse anyone of anything and I agree with much of what you have said about Mario.  So the question is what if Mario gets his new school to the playoff before we make it in?  I would really hate to see that but with the talent base in the area even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.  I would love to hear your logic and evidence rather than just "won't happen"

 

Quietduck

[Just Ducky]

The key is can he get a good enough QB to get that job done. We will see.

[Viking Duck]

I don't think there is really an easy answer to that? Obviously people who are predicting he will fail at this point will be disappointed, but other than that not sure what other effect there would be.

 

Until the playoffs change, it would essentially mean that Miami would have to run the table, 12-0 or 11-1, and knock of Clemson in the championship game for the ACC as far as I know. More or less similar to Oregon in the Pac-12, except they tend to play a slightly easier schedule since there are fewer conference games.

 

He would need to get that talent base in the program, which should be easier for him there, and then use it effectively to get that type of record. I'd say for our experience, the Rose Bowl year was as close as we got, derailed by just one game.

[webfootfan]

If MC can grow into realizing he is not a great game day coach,  and have someone else either take that over, if he can let the offensive coordinator handle the offense, then i think there is a great chance for him to take them to the playoffs.  I just have no reason to believe that will happen.  

[Steven A]

On 1/29/2022 at 12:57 PM, webfootfan said:

If MC can grow into realizing he is not a great game day coach,  and have someone else either take that over, if he can let the offensive coordinator handle the offense, then

"If, and, if, then", then I agree.  He will attract the talent but will need backboned OC.  Didn't he go thru 3 in his four years at Oregon.  The only hold over being Moorehead who, like everyone else, got the Mulligan covid year.

[Charles Fischer]

If he gets Miami to the Playoff, then that will mean that he changed enormously from his time at Oregon and he will have deserved it.

 

But remember...he meddled with his coordinators, and while we do not have absolute proof, it is easy to connect the dots as we've done many times in this forum.  Had he stayed at Oregon, he would have received a massive raise to seven million a year, and he settled with eight million a year from Miami.

 

This means, (in his mind) that he did it right at Oregon, and he was being rewarded for the prior decisions and behaviors.  Heck at eight million a year--ANYBODY would think they did it the right way.  Why would you change when you have just been massively reinforced for prior decisions?

 

So, if he does not change--he will not be in the Playoffs, and I think betting against both is a prettay, prettay safe bet.

 

It's easy to follow the dots with Mario...

 

 

[HappyToBeADuck]

I believe that Mario is at a crossroads in his career as a HC. MC is at the beginning of his 11th season as a head coach. Not at the beginning as Coach Lanning is but ELEVENTH season.

 

As for evidence, that MC will or will not get to a CFP appearnce, well I have none. But I do have eyes and a thought process that can assimilate what I see. 

 

1. Did not see any change or improvement per in game management from his first game at Oregon to his last. 

 

2. Did not see him turning over the reigns to his OC or DC. Everything became predictable. If the fans could see that, well other coaches could. (Wittingham, Shaw, Smith)

 

3. Did not see the team, under MC, stop losing the games they were supposed to win. (ASU, Stanford (twice), OSU). Cannot make the CFP if you lose games you are supposed to win.

 

4. To me, the Ducks finished 20 and 21 on losing notes. Once Shough lost his confidence the 20 season went down hill. In 21, losing 3 out of your last 4 games is telling. My eyes saw players who were tired, not motivated who had lost the will to win. The best recruits in Duck history and MC could not get them over the finish line.

 

From what my eyes saw, my brain tells me that unless MC is willing to change, he will not get to the CFP. If he does, even with 5* Florida talent, he will get out coached.

[Jon Joseph]

HUH? If it does work out it will be at least a small miracle.

[kirklandduck]

If he continues to strangle the offense into his myopic view of what he thinks it should be then he'll never make the playoff. In face he'd be booted out of Miami in less than 3 years like Slick Willie at FSU.

[EzDucksIt]

He did his best to destroy Oregon, recruited all that window dressing while he let the talent starve.  Let him get sunburnt, feel the salt water and let us move on.  Let Willie 2.0 go, just let out a big sigh of relief and remain calm.

[Log Haulin]

Pitman left in the middle of the season. That single event tells you all you need to know about Oregon's locker room under MC. Players were frustrated and discontented.  They have not made a public outcry, but the Pitman transfer tells you all you need to know. Mario was the cancer that ultimately resulted in the Utah debacle. 

[olcodgerduck]

On 1/29/2022 at 12:55 PM, Just Ducky said:

The key is can he get a good enough QB to get that job done. We will see.

After watching the last 4 years, I don't believe he can evaluate QB talent so he'll never know if he has a good QB or not.  As we have all seen, the apparent requirements to be his starting QB seem to be the ability to accomplish a 2 yard toss into traffic, a 2 yard plunge into traffic, and/or a hand off to the running back for, you guessed it, a 2 yard plunge into traffic.

 

At Oregon, he had a QB room with at least 3 talented players, all with varying strong suits.  He was never curious enough to find out they would work out, so they just sat there while we watched the above performance game after game after....

 

As a person, I wish him well as he will always have been a member of the Oregon family.  However, his departure really doesn't hurt since I am finding Coach Lanning to be a huge upgrade so far and am anticipating tremendous accomplishments from Our Beloved Ducks.

 

Go Ducks!!

[OhioDuck]

I don't think it's impossible for him to accomplish getting to the playoffs at Miami, but Miami is a mess right now and it's going to take some time. Oregon is way ahead of Miami at this point. The portal might make it easier to get experienced players quickly, but changing a culture takes time. Being in the ACC could help, if he can get the kind of talent he brought to Oregon. Then he may be able to pull off an undefeated or one loss season, an upset of Clemson maybe and make it. But even that is a long shot for a while.

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[JDuck]

Must be a slow Saturday, why didn't you guys ski?  I don't think MC will ever win the ACC, he may recruit enough to win the division (if they can beat Pitt) but he can't even get a DC or an OC.  I see some 7-5 on the Miami horizon, 7-6 after they lose their bowls to Middle Tennessee State or Western Michigan or some team like that

[Haywarduck]

If he gets generational talent to go to Miami that wants to do it his way, then he may just do it, TIMEOUT!

 

He won't get the next Derrick Henry, and it isn't going to happen. Mario is sitting on the a one legged stool. The other two legs are development and scheme and he doesn't have those abilities to keep his stool standing. 

[David Marsh]

On 1/29/2022 at 1:37 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Had he stayed at Oregon, he would have received a massive raise to seven million a year

You know... I've been thinkng about that lately... He turned it down from Uncle Phil and Uncle Phil just walked away from that proposal. 

 

Now... I have zero evidence but assuming he was not in contact with Miami (at least not serious) and negotiations had certainly not started yet... 

 

But what if... What IF Uncle Phil had some stuff on that contract proposal that would have taken some of MC's power away and forced him to let his coordinators do their jobs? 

 

Again... No evidence... But that was some big money and Cristobal is a big recruiter but I'm not convinced Uncle Phil would have been willing to give out that much money without some assurances that he was going to get a team that could put opponents away. The on field results were not satisfactory, though it was a 10 win season, but it was a messy 10 wins for the most part and it was a messy pac-12.championship the year before. 

 

Would uncle Phil just give out that size of a contract without ensuring Oregon would actually improve on the field? 

 

I'm not so sure. Something to ponder anyways. Cristobal certainly wouldn't have liked losing power in some way that's for sure. 

[Just Ducky]

On 1/29/2022 at 5:00 PM, JDuck said:

Must be a slow Saturday, why didn't you guys ski?  I don't think MC will ever win the ACC, he may recruit enough to win the division (if they can beat Pitt) but he can't even get a DC or an OC.  I see some 7-5 on the Miami horizon, 7-6 after they lose their bowls to Middle Tennessee State or Western Michigan or some team like that

In my day if you got caught skiing or motorcycle riding you were kicked off the team. Period.

[JDuck]

Nobody on this forum is on the team...I'm talking about us! 

[1Ducker1]

Miami is for thugs

[Duck 1972]

Ouch.