FishDuck Article Administrator No. 1 Share Posted February 21, 2022 While it was a fun beginning to learn how Dan Lanning plans to coach in my previous article, this next installment brings new football information for Oregon fans on the defensive side. If we want to understand how Coach Lanning will create a unique defense, then we first need to immerse ourselves in a stat called the “Havoc Rate,” as ... Read the full article here... 1 5 Two Sites: FishDuck and the Our Beloved Ducks forum, The only "Forum with Decorum!" And All-Volunteer? What a wonderful community of Duck fans! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Rambis No. 2 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Love this. There are SO many small things to master that add up to great play. I've always loved watching guys like Tim Duncan and Karl Malone who do all the little things right and constantly improve. There are a lot of flashy players who don't. I'd rather have a WR who can consistently move the chains with an 8-yard out, never runs the wrong route, and blocks like a demon (see: Ward, Hines) than the guy who will weave through traffic for a 60-yard TD on one play, then drop two passes, run the wrong route resulting in a pick, and doesn't block. Maybe that's why my favorite basketball player of all time is Kurt Rambis. Guy was too small, slow, and athletically limited to even realistically make an NBA roster - but he played a key role in multiple NBA title teams because he played really smart and did all the little things like diving for loose balls, playing D, and setting picks to let the superstars succeed. NO DIVAS! 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 1972 No. 3 Share Posted February 21, 2022 NO DIVAS! TEAM FIRST! RELEASE THE DOGS OF WAR AND CREATE HAVOC! WOE TO MY ENEMY! THEY SHALL FEAR ME! 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smith72 Moderator No. 4 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Attacking not reacting. Quick explosive not catching blocks. Creating havoc not playing soft waiting for an offense to eventually make a mistake! Sounds like a philosophy that our young guns will love to play! I will be excited to see this development in Spring drills! Thanks for introducing us to the concept Charles! 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 1972 No. 5 Share Posted February 21, 2022 In the limited games I watched UGA play what impressed me the most was how many batted down balls there were by the front 7. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck No. 6 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Going from a prevent defense to a havoc rate driven defense is an amazing step. I can only imagine selling student athletes on coming to play under that guidance is a much easier sell than the previous focus. A defender is hard wired to want to stop, destroy, dismantle, ruin the opposing offense. Being given license to create havoc with a definition and metrics has to fire up the players. I can only imagine being told to go out there and prevent, or go out there and create havoc. The new Oregon defense is going to be rockin, and players are going to be lined up to perform and take part in taking apart opposing offenses! Great article and something completely new to ponder as the season approaches. Now if we can only get rid of the prevent offense. I am sure that is on tap too. Maybe havoc rate on defense and explosion rate on offense? 5 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseKwacker No. 7 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Wow, Charles, another stellar article. Thank you for piecemealing this great info to us, bit-by-bit. Your strategy allows my old brain to expand slowly without just exploding. The only downside is that none of my hats fit any more. You're creating HAVOC on my hat shelf. I know I'm gonna love me some Dan Lanning. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kamikaze Kid Moderator No. 8 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Excellent article. I'll take real talk of havoc rate over empty words on physicality any day! 1 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 9 Share Posted February 21, 2022 My FishDuck Friends, below was written this morning by a Georgia fan, meansonny, about the Havoc-Rate questions I presented to their forum... "When I think of havoc, I think of all of those small things a defender does that add up to opportunities over the course of a season. Eric Stokes (3 star CB) was long and fast. He was coached up to play the receiver's hands. You see him getting his arm or his hand in on passes (even completions) ripping down in an attempt to dislodge the ball. Players at UGA seem to be coached to their strengths. You see zone defenders cracking on the ball to separate the receiver from the pass. You see defensive linemen squeezing the pocket but keeping one hand free to contain a scramble or bat down a pass. The technique matters, but it may also he tailored to the player's strengths and natural athleticism. When a running back gets hit, you see 10 other bodies flying to the ball. You see ball-carriers being stood up with extra defenders ripping like lions for the ball. For the players who buy-in, it is a batting average. The more chances you create, the more success you have accumulated over the year. But you have to create those at-bats. It isn't baseball where the batting lineup gives you those chances. The most impressive view in our 2021 defense was defensive linemen on the hoof. Having depth helps a ton. But seeing Travon Walker rush upfield towards a QB and then turn around and get in on the tackle against a wheel route (not his man) 30 yards downfield may be one of the most awe-inspiring hustle plays (that hardly anyone notices away from a board like this). We constantly see Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, or Devonte Wyatt running down the line of scrimmage and either making the play with their strain or being the beneficiary of a cut-back when an edge player does their job, too. We are going to see an impressive amount of defensive players drafted this year. Non-starters may be going in rounds 2 and 3. From afar, the football IQ of these players is sky high (see awareness for havoc plays). Conditioning and effort have been elite as well." 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 10 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 7:32 AM, Haywarduck said: Going from a prevent defense to a havoc rate driven defense is an amazing step. Something that came up in my research surprised me, and it is how this approach will make you take a step back in some statistics, but it creates a larger margin of victory or a better chance at winning. For example, if we have more explosion plays on offense that creates short TOP (time of possession) of a number of drives...then the opposing offense will have more TOP than usual and more possessions during the game to score with. (This is crucial for us to understand) A Havoc-Defense can add to that....create short fields for the easy offensive scoring from turnovers, as well as the occasional fumble returned for a TD, or a pick-six generated from blitzing pressure which forces a bad throw by the opposing QB. *****Thus, the opposing offense could actually end up scoring MORE than on a prevent-defense because of the extra possessions, but the winning margin is much bigger for the victor with the game not being in doubt in the second half. This is a concept I did not "get" for a long time, and one that most Oregon fans are not aware of either. 2 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 11 Share Posted February 21, 2022 It was nice to see that Havoc isn't just up to the front seven. It would be great to see the corners up at the line of scrimmage and distrusting routes before they start this year... Rather then letting receivers run free underneath. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioDuck No. 12 Share Posted February 21, 2022 This sounds great! But don't try to trademark it. As a VCU basketball fan I will tell you, we own the trademark. I love this though. The idea that defense is about disrupting what the offense wants to do, to make the offense not work the way it's supposed to is exactly what I'm hoping for. We VCU basketball fans will tell you that not only works, but it's exciting to watch! This is going to be fun! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 13 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Great article. Cry havoc and release the hounds! Or in this case, release the Ducks D! Bill Connelly's SP+ stuff is among the best CFB computer model prediction programs. However, I don't like SP+ ranking Oregon 32nd in the preseason rankings. Hopefully, Danno will make this ranking look like havoc happened in Bill's algorithm. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 14 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 8:54 AM, Duck 1972 said: NO DIVAS! TEAM FIRST! RELEASE THE DOGS OF WAR AND CREATE HAVOC! WOE TO MY ENEMY! THEY SHALL FEAR ME! Great comment. You beat me to it! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake Moderator No. 15 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Our linebackers will be among the best in the country. If they stay healthy I expect to see balls dislodged, inaccurate passes, sacks, and opposing QB’s trying to figure out where pressure Is coming from next. The havoc meter should be pretty active. Having an explosive offense that puts pressure on an opposing team to score is also important to allow the defense to be aggressive. I would love to watch the havoc meter constantly ticking upward because teams are forced to keep pace with us on offense. This is the type of football that I want to watch. 5 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 16 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 10:43 AM, David Marsh said: It was nice to see that Havoc isn't just up to the front seven This is what is so exciting for me. It was great watching Chip's offense. But I can hardly wait to see Oregon D wreaking Havoc on the field now. Three play drives. Now we'll have 3 and outs. The defenses used to have "injuries" to slow down the blur. What can they do to stop this? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittDuck No. 17 Share Posted February 21, 2022 OMG! We are going to tell Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe to create more havoc than they already do? This is gonna be fun to watch! Release the DUCKS of WAR to rain HAVOC early and often, upon their (soon to be dazed and confused) opponents. Can hardly wait til September! Go Ducks! 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 18 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 2:47 PM, Drake said: Our linebackers will be among the best in the country. If they stay healthy I expect to see balls dislodged, inaccurate passes, sacks, and opposing QB’s trying to figure out where pressure Is coming from next. The havoc meter should be pretty active. Having an explosive offense that puts pressure on an opposing team to score is also important to allow the defense to be aggressive. I would love to watch the havoc meter constantly ticking upward because teams are forced to keep pace with us on offense. This is the type of football that I want to watch. Best position group on the team. Please let Flowe stay healthy + play ball. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 19 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 3:30 PM, 30Duck said: This is what is so exciting for me. It was great watching Chip's offense. But I can hardly wait to see Oregon D wreaking Havoc on the field now. Three play drives. Now we'll have 3 and outs. The defenses used to have "injuries" to slow down the blur. What can they do to stop this? The 'phantom' injuries are under review by the competition committee. So tough because you do not want to incent a truly injured player to play on. One rule change under consideration is that if go down with an injury you have to sit out the remainder of the series on O and D. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 20 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 12:32 PM, PittDuck said: the DUCKS of WAR OK...now I like that expression much better than the "dogs" of war.... 2 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 21 Share Posted February 21, 2022 CAT HAVOC? Only DUCK HAVOC could be better! Made me laugh...thanks man. Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 22 Share Posted February 21, 2022 That is GREAT! Trapped by Ducks.... Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 23 Share Posted February 21, 2022 What I would like to see is when we do get into position we make the tackle, which our last 4 defenses have struggled mightily with. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Duck No. 24 Share Posted February 21, 2022 When you watch Georgia's D, they are just lethal! You can't play on your heels on D and expect to strike fear into your opponents and Lanning's D fly to the ball in swarms and makes you feel their difference. That Bulldog D took over the 4th quarter of the national championship game and put Bama DOWN! Now if Dan can bring even 3/4's of that to Oregon and we can get some legit space crushing SEC sized DT's, we'll own the PAC. USC will quit, before they'll get hit the way Lanning's D's at Georgia punish. That I can promise you! It took Georgia a handful of years to find an offense and that may have been what cost them a couple national titles. Let's hope Dillingham is the next Lane Kiffin, because I don't think there's anyway our D wont be very good! 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 25 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 2:31 PM, Southern Duck said: USC will quit, before they'll get hit the way Lanning's D's at Georgia punish. That I can promise you! Fight On < Fight Off Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 26 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 2:31 PM, Southern Duck said: Now if Dan can bring even 3/4's of that to Oregon This "Havoc-Rate" stat has been around a few years and most coaches are aware of it, especially now with Georgia's success. But trying to implement it is another thing and only one man knows best in how to do it, because he's done it.... And we got-him! 4 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 27 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 5:39 PM, 30Duck said: Fight On < Fight Off Maybe? I'm concerned that SC will leave the Pac-12? An NBC Notre dame-like deal could be in the works for USC? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Moderator No. 28 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 7:37 PM, Jon Joseph said: An NBC Notre dame-like deal could be in the works for USC? This seems very plausible, and the only thing worse for Oregon in the Pac-12 with USC would be Oregon in a Pac-12 without USC. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 29 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) On 2/21/2022 at 2:27 PM, Jon Joseph said: Great comment. You beat me to it! Marc Antony, from the play 'Julius Caesar.' I'm embarrassed I had to look this up? Thought is was a line from Hank 5? "Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war," was a line from Antony's funeral oration for Julius Caesar in the play, Julius Caesar, writ by The Bard. A better line than Antony's finish and eventual loss to Octavian. Antony and friend Cleopatra was the rest of CFB versus Octavian's SEC, Edited February 22, 2022 by Jon Joseph 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmithRiverDuck No. 30 Share Posted February 22, 2022 On 2/21/2022 at 9:49 AM, Charles Fischer said: Something that came up in my research surprised me, and it is how this approach will make you take a step back in some statistics, but it creates a larger margin of victory or a better chance at winning. For example, if we have more explosion plays on offense that creates short TOP (time of possession) of a number of drives...then the opposing offense will have more TOP than usual and more possessions during the game to score with. (This is crucial for us to understand) A Havoc-Defense can add to that....create short fields for the easy offensive scoring from turnovers, as well as the occasional fumble returned for a TD, or a pick-six generated from blitzing pressure which forces a bad throw by the opposing QB. *****Thus, the opposing offense could actually end up scoring MORE than on a prevent-defense because of the extra possessions, but the winning margin is much bigger for the victor with the game not being in doubt in the second half. This is a concept I did not "get" for a long time, and one that most Oregon fans are not aware of either. I think you're correct, Charles, in saying, "Most fans." But for those of us who've been more than just casually invested over these many years, I believe it's not a difficult concept to grasp. We've been exposed to it before. While Chip's offenses were scoring every minute and thirty seconds, we knew that the D was spending more time on the field than before and therefore was bound to give up a few more points along the way. This was the first time Oregon employed actual depth, instead of the 2's always being on the bench, only playing because of injury or very brief rests for the starters. It's the heart of the golden age, so far, of Oregon Football. For a brief few years we we're (very often) so far ahead of the competition that the young guys (especially on defense) got to play significant minutes and get ready for their future starting assignments. I'm still impressed how Nick Aliotti adapted to the blur offense. It's one thing to have to deal with it as an opposing DC. But Aliotti had to live with it in his own house. The idea of not worrying about total yardage given up, but to clamp down like a vise in the red zone paid so many dividends for Oregon. I don't think many Oregon fans appreciated that until Nick was gone. 6 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
toketeeman No. 31 Share Posted February 24, 2022 "Havoc" makes the old term "smashmouth" sound so pedestrian and antiquated. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
