Should Oregon Air the Ball Out?

[Duck 1972]

I believe the strength of this team is the OL/TEs. I believe their strength is the run game, not as much pass blocking. Also the "D". We have adequate RBs

 

With a new QB and WRs I believe we should take advantage of the run game this season. I believe it should look like it has the past couple of years. The team and current players have played this way for 4 years.

 

I know this is a minority opinion. But hear me me out. We should have a great defense this year. With that being so I posit we run a time management offense.

 

This means leaning heavy on the run with occasionally taking shots downfield to keep defense honest

 

We control the clock thereby giving the opposing team fewer chances. Which then helps our defense pin their ears back and get after the opposing team. 

 

I believe big time this is how I would run our offense that gives us a chance at an CFB PO. this upcoming season. We can change next year with a new direction....

[Steven A]

Just win baby, win.

[30Duck]

On 2/24/2022 at 5:59 PM, Steven A said:

Just win baby, win.

This is also where I land. I'm still understanding that establishing a running game is the key component unless you're running an air raid. But Alabama since Saban's awakening has gone with whatever works.

[Charles Fischer]

I think most of us would like to see a higher scoring offense, and your post certainly illuminates why you liked Mario's approach. (Which is fine) In my view, that strategy worked before the days of high-flying offenses, and now you must score a ton to win in the Playoffs.  Nick Saban agrees as you will see here...

 

And with that, I am not promoting a pass-heavy offense, but one that is balanced as we have the players to pull it off.

 

Like the old days!

                                            Beating USC in 2015...

[Smith72]

Air Raid or Ground and Pound?  Neither!

Successful offenses can do both.  They have to be able to do both.

 

Balance and being unpredictable is the best.  Keeping the defense confused, and scheming for mismatches preferred.

 

Please no more "prevent offense"!

[David Marsh]

The pass opens up the run and vice versa... Really need both to be truly successful. 

 

Oregon got away with being one dimensional last season for ten wins because no one besides Utah could truly stop Oregon's run game .... Well I guess UCLA did sorta but their pass defense was awful. 

 

Once Utah sold out to stop the run and covered the short passes it made Brown super flustered and easy to defend. 

 

If Brown could have hit some of those passes over the middle or deeper balls those games could have been very different because Oregon may have gotten their run game started. 

[Viking Duck]

Many years ago I read a book about military strategy, and the author loved the idiom of 'on the horns of a dilemma' and showed how time and again in history, the great military leaders were good (or lucky enough) to put their opponent on those horns. The basic idea is that an opponent has two clear options, such as move the forces to defend the capitol or move the forces to defend the important port city, but there are not enough forces to do both at the same time.

 

I thought at the time (and still do!) that the whole idea translated over very well to football. Whether it's a very heavily run-based offense (thinking the triple wishbone of decades ago or the modified version run by the service academies now) or very heavily pass-based offense like the old BYU Lavell Edwards offense, or the more modern air-raid. And of course the RPO offenses that seem so common now are the same.

 

The offensive coordinator is trying to put the opponent on the horns of a dilemma and once their hand has been tipped - such as reading an outside linebacker's reaction to the start of the play - the offense is able to move in the opposite direction of the defense and take advantage of superior forces in that area, before the defense can send reinforcements.

 

With all that, sorry if I am being too philosophical

 

My point for this topic is that I think that once the coaches evaluate the players and what they are capable of, they should put in a set of plays in the offense that fit the strengths of the players and try to maximize that dilemma for the defense. IMO I feel a balanced run/pass offense is the very best for this, but if it has to be weighted one way or the other, even in that case there should be a 'dilemma' given to the defense.

 

I think that was where much of the criticism of the offense came from with MC. Thinking of the Auburn game where everyone knew they were going between tackles and they did, and got stuffed.

 

The Ohio State game was a good counter example; even if it was mostly runs (or quick toss passes that might as well have been runs) the Ducks worked the dilemma of are they going up the middle or hitting the edge. OSU got burned four times as I recall, once up the gut and three times on the edge.

 

So back to @Duck 1972 I think the first thing is whether the coaches do the evaluation and decide that you are right, they are much stronger in the run / short passing game. And if they decide that, they need to make sure they are building in those options and actually use them, to keep the opposing teams guessing.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Viking Duck

[Drake]

The strength of our new offense might be somewhat difficult to determine. We do have talent throughout the offense, and should be capable of stretching opposing defenses. 
 

Last year we were not capable of stretching defenses and suffered against teams that could stop our running game, and short passing attack.

 

QB1 is the wildcard that ultimately determines the success of this years team. Our receivers, and TEs are both solid, and if QB1 plays big boy football…..well….we will find out this fall how far they can go. 

[Flyin Vee]

Find their weakness and pound it until they stop you. Game plan, adjustments. Pretty simple, not so easy but simple.

[Mike West]

Here's my take of the QB room.  I'll start by saying this is more hunch based on film I've seen of all three QBs.  

 

Butterfield is the more accurate of the three (most especially the deep ball).  I think he struggles with the short to mid range game.  Overall, I believe over the course of a game, he provides the most accuracy- but he isn't efficient enough to start.

 

Thompson throws the most effective deep ball.  He really struggles with the middle of the field ( accuracy and reading defenses).  He would kill the deep game with last year's freshman group. I also believe he is not efficient enough yet to start.

 

Nix has struggled throwing deep.  But he is amazing at " grinding down the field".  He has enough arm strength to throw deep, he just isn't effective enough at it.  His weaknesses is consistency.  But he also faced coordinators that were effective at adjusting mid game.  

 

Nix also provided the most versatility when it comes to mixing up plays.  He is a very effective runner.  He fits with an RPO type offense very well.  Nix is a more complete QB( thanks MC and crew).  

 

If I'm Dan Lanning, I'm having my training coach ( who is the only coach that can work with the team in the off-season) develop all three players to the max.  I'd especially get Nix some serious muscle memory with the speedsters.

 

I'd  give Thompson some massive midrange looks until he is seriously effective at it ( late summer and fall he can work on his deep game).

 

Since Butterfield is the least mobile, I'd work on developing his entire game until he is awesome as a pass only threat.

 

We're going to lose Butterfield or Thompson.  So I'd promise to fully develop their game all year if they promise to stay the entire year.  We've seen what injuries do, so depth and development of this group is critical.  

 

By the way, I'd go with scoring as quickly as possible in order to get both Butterfield and Thompson plenty of game reps.  That means Nix absolutely needs to develop his deep game ( we saw what AB did with the speedsters, so it's a matter of figuring timing for Nix- he has to throw the ball at the right time to complete those deep balls ).  

 

I do believe Lanning wants to score lots of points.  His staff has six months to figure out out.  

[Haywarduck]

Confuse the defense, while taking advantage of what they are weak at and aren't ready for. I think you have to have all elements of the offense ready to go. The key will be if the OC and staff can have all parts of the offense ready to take what the defense gives us.

 

The weakness of our offense in the recent past was we were predictable number one. The other weakness was we didn't have a complete repertoire   to take advantage of and exploit all teams. It is no longer possible to be a predictable offense and dominate an opposing team, when you play elite competition.

 

While Alabama has gone to the passing game, they still have a very good running game. We need to have an effective passing game and a running game that uses the whole field, not just the A gap, with an occasional B gap call. I want to see the jet sweep along with the kitchen sink called to take advantage of what the defense is doing.

 

I can see one week we have a run heavy offense and the next pass heavy. That is what will drive opposing defenses nuts. Driving opposing defenses nuts again is what I want to see. We need opposing defenses playing whack a mole, and our offense to quit playing whack the same hole!

[Charles Fischer]

On 2/26/2022 at 7:39 AM, cartm25 said:

Those teams were so far ahead that backups got valuable, in-game experience and development.

Well.....not really.  Chip was smart and knew that once you had a big lead--the objective is to limit the number of possessions the other team has so that they cannot possibly come back on you.  Thus we saw Chip go into what I called, "Turtle-Time," to burn the clock and yes, a back-up QB was in the game, but they would get up there to the LOS, appear to about to snap the ball, then stop and look at the sideline.

 

They would burn up the full 30 seconds each time--and then run another Inside Zone.  At the time, I don't know if you recall how we were all complaining about how the backup QBs were not getting any real game action.

 

"Let them run the full offense," we said.  But he would not.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/24/2022 at 8:59 PM, Steven A said:

Just win baby, win.

Steven, no criticism of the above POV is directed at you. I used to be 100% down with this saying; one that is oft attributed to Al Davis. But it's 1 thing to just win a game in the NFL and another thing to keep a team like Stony Brook in the game.

 

I think in CFB where rosters are so disparate, that you have to go for the kill shot and not get a small lead and attempt to hold onto same by playing 'small ball?" I think Mario's 'prevent offense' was killing the Oregon brand. Am I in favor of an air raid O? Heck no. Ne air raid team has won a playoff title. But I am certainly in favor of a 'modern offense' that attacks on the ground and through the air and does not stop attacking. One that is designed to provide good angles for guys on O to set up blocks, instead of just expecting the OL to smash mouth guys.

 

As to the quality of the 2022 D? If Flowe stays healthy, Oregon likely has the best LB corps in the conference and one of the top corps in CFB. But, will the DL hold up against UGA, BYU, Utah? Can the DBs handle the air raid circus in Pullman? Is 1 spring and 'summer' practice enough for the D coaches to get their system installed and fully communicated? 

 

Intuitively and production wise historically, I see the LB corps as the strength of the 2022 team. To me, everything else is unknown and that includes an OL that for any # of reasons has yet to play up to the collective recruiting rankings.

 

2022? Be patient. It is a brutal schedule for young group of coaches, a still young group of players and an 'unknown' at staring QB. Is there another team in the country that plays 3 OOC games, playing the defending national champ, a team that will be ranked no lower than No. 3 and another top 20 team OOC? Then, add in 5 conference road games plus drawing the defending conference champion in a cross division, home game.

 

PS- Regarding the Ohio State comments above. 2021 was the season to 'get' the Buckeyes. A team playing by OH ST standards, historically bad D. A continuing trend from the 2020 season when the Buckeyes D was exposed in conference leading to close OH ST wins and by Bama in the champ game. This is why Ryan Day is bringing in the DC from OK ST and lots of other new coaches on D, to Columbus. (Also, why Derek Mason, for less $, left Auburn and is now the DC at OK ST.)

 

But Steven, again, please make no mistake, in general I agree with you Sir. At the end of the day all that matters is the W and not an L.

 

 

 

 

[Viking Duck]

On 2/26/2022 at 8:28 AM, Charles Fischer said:

we saw Chip go into what I called, "Turtle-Time," to burn the clock

 

On 2/26/2022 at 9:08 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I think Mario's 'prevent offense' was killing the Oregon brand.

Although not expressed as well, when I saw the pandemic year PAC 12 championship game against USC on TV, I thought the second half was a great example of both burning the clock AND not falling into the trap of running the pistol plunge up the gut so often that offensive momentum was lost.

 

Get up to the line, pause and look at the sideline, but then the play call was creative and took advantage of what the D showed. No doubt why OBD won the game and did not become another victim of USC's miracle come back wins during that year; they were dangerous if you left them time on the clock to get some 'free-style' points by throwing down to their excellent receivers.

 

That was one of those games after which I thought 'Well, maybe MC is letting his highly paid OC run the offense in a smart way.' Unfortunately, it ended up being the exception rather than the rule.

 

Whether it's more run-based or pass-based, in important or difficult games it's important to be able to balance scoring vs. game management, but it doesn't mean you have to just run the ball straight up the gut every time if you are trying to burn clock.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Duck1972, great question and ponder point. The thread has some excellent and diverse opinions and comments.

 

As a fan, I would hope the new coaching staff will and can assess the strengths and weaknesses of the players. Then teach, train and coach the player weaknesses into strengths. The previous staff may have tried to focus on player development.  However the QB talent must have missed many practice sessions.

 

Or the talent is/was unable to be developed. So many facets to player development, especially for the QB position. Should we air it out? With a diverse, well balanced offense, led by a confident, prepared QB then yes.

 

Question is do we have that QB in the room? Can that QB be developed to lead a well balanced offense?

 

Spring ball will tell us alot.

 

Personally the other side of the coin is more concerning. Can the coaches teach this talent? How will they handle in game adjustments?

 

More questions, few answers. So much fun to ponder. Answers coming soon, just not soon enough.

[Steven A]

On 2/26/2022 at 9:08 AM, Jon Joseph said:

and another thing to keep a team like Stony Brook in the game.

No offense taken.  I agree with you.  I want an exciting dominating O.  A Stoney Brook should be out of it by the half (at the latest) and the 3's and 4's should keep it that way getting many reps.  If the 3's and 4's allow them back in, then we don't care about the final score.

[Just Ducky]

Balance Balance Balance. Move the ball every way you can. The whole game.

[Mike West]

On 2/26/2022 at 9:08 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

As to the quality of the 2022 D? If Flowe stays healthy, Oregon likely has the best LB corps in the conference and one of the top corps in CFB. But, will the DL hold up against UGA, BYU, Utah? Can the DBs handle the air raid circus in Pullman? Is 1 spring and 'summer' practice enough for the D coaches to get their system installed and fully communicated? 

 

I actually think the DL is strong enough to handle those three ( remember it was totally decimated by the time they got to Utah).  Remember, they stopped a pretty good OSU run game.  

 

UGA will be the biggest challenge, thus a devastating LB crew will help there ( not really concerned with BYU even though they get all 11 back- they just won't be effective against our healthy defense). 

 

This is where Lanning and his strategy will assist. He needs to get pressure on the QB to disrupt effective passing teams ( UGA is better than people realize).  

 

Again, the Spring Game will explain what we can expect strategically, even if they don't show much ( they will show how they're going to use specific players- which is what I'm looking for).

 

What bothered me most about MC last year was the defense was capable of stopping everybody they played.  All 12 of them.  He let teams hang around when he should've tightened the noose.  

 

This defense should be world class this year, even with an "average" defensive line.  Again, time will tell, but from what I saw last year, this unit can be a wrecking crew ( they held tOSU to SEVEN first half points- some of that was frosh QB Stroud, most of it was very good defense).  

[DrJacksPlaidPants]

It all depends on QB play. The Ducks have great WR’s, but if the QB has a habit of throwing to the other team then they may need to lean on the run.

[OhioDuck]

We better be able to do both run and pass. If the offense is working well, some will say the run is setting up the pass and some will say the pass is setting up the run. 

 

If one is stressed over the other good defenses will adjust and shut it down. Even great defenses have trouble stopping great offenses when they don't know what the offense is going to do. There should be no tendencies, I think this is what doomed MC's offense to mediocrity.