mrspenney No. 1 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Assuming a TV deal could be reached that would be around 10M less than they'd get in the B1G, and in my opinion the Ducks and Duck fans would be better off where we are. Look at the overall B1G conference in the last 20 years. Ohio State has won 10 conference football championships and tied for 2 more. Michigan has won 1 and tied for 2, Penn St. won 2 tied for 1, Wisconsin 2 & 1, However in the last 10 years for the most part it's Ohio State. Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers have been also rans for the last 20 years and will continue to be. Oregon and Washington would dominate the Pac 12, ala Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12. How happy do you think the fans at Oklahoma and Texas are going to be with a conference dominated by Alabama and Georgia? I'm old enough to remember when the conference was dominated by SC and UCLA, and it was considered to be a great season if the Ducks won 5 games. In my opinion, which I've articulated in the past, collegiate football is on a path of destruction led by the hand by TV. TV (money), NIL, and transfer rules are moving the sport into a two super conference mode, which will be the beginning of the end as we now know it. It's really too bad. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
debbieduck No. 2 Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) I believe 2 teams from both the SEC and BIG will be in playoffs. Then the PAC-12 champs, Big 12 champs, ACC champs, and 1 at large Oregon would be in playoffs 3 out of ever 4 seasons if we stay put. If there is a PAC 12 in the future Edited October 12, 2022 by debbieduck 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nevada Dawg No. 3 Share Posted October 13, 2022 The biggest problem with being in the B1G is that the state with the abundance of high school talent is Ohio and Ohio State "owns" it recruiting-wise. That being the case, they will continue to dominate the B1G. A 12-team playoff field means that Oregon in the PAC-whatever will reach the playoffs more often but...3 out of every 4 seasons seems to be excessive to me. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaps2 No. 4 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 10/12/2022 at 11:25 PM, Nevada Dawg said: The biggest problem with being in the B1G is that the state with the abundance of high school talent is Ohio and Ohio State "owns" it recruiting-wise. That being the case, they will continue to dominate the B1G. A 12-team playoff field means that Oregon in the PAC-whatever will reach the playoffs more often but...3 out of every 4 seasons seems to be excessive to me. Without the SoCal schools on Oregon's schedule that pipeline of prep talent will eventually dry up the same way Nebraska's pipeline into Texas did. Zero Texas schools on the schedule will do that. Staying in conference with the SoCal schools keeps them in the fold. The Big10 is the future. Not next year but 5 years from now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirklandduck Moderator No. 5 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 10/13/2022 at 1:29 AM, Flaps2 said: Without the SoCal schools on Oregon's schedule that pipeline of prep talent will eventually dry up the same way Nebraska's pipeline into Texas did. Zero Texas schools on the schedule will do that. Staying in conference with the SoCal schools keeps them in the fold. The Big10 is the future. Not next year but 5 years from now. Makes it even more important to pull in SDSU to keep game exposure in Southern Cali open. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDuck No. 6 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Keep in mind that Oregon recruits nationally. A quick glance at the two deep roster shows over 30% are from outside the Pac-12 footprint + Hawaii. The same holds true for the 2023 recruiting class commitments as it now stands. While it is an advantage to have scheduled games to an area it isn't the end of the world if we don't. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 7 Share Posted October 13, 2022 You can bet on one thing: If the B1G wants USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington then the B1G sees profit for themselves in it. If it means the death of the Pac-12 what would they care about that? 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 8 Share Posted October 13, 2022 I truly believe that if the pack can’t find a way to hang together then our beloved Ducks sports will take a huge hit. Our only hope to the championship we most want will be to come out of the pack. Our playoff chances would diminish considerably if we were to go on a bunch of road games back in the midwest every season. Our history of road losses confirms this. As far as recruiting out of LA I think there are a lot of kids down there eager to get out of that town. If you have been there then you know what a nightmare it is. Oregon is still close to home and recruiting LA can still be manageable. Whatever happens with expansion, I agree, needs to happen soon. I hope our new commish has the proper adjustments in place to make this happen but there are very few sighs that it is happening. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lownslowav8r No. 9 Share Posted October 13, 2022 With the money from the 12 team national championship Oregon will do well to stay. No way will they get a full cut if they move. Better culture match. Better travel for students. Less already entrenched competition. I’ll miss Oregon beating media darlings and arrogant USC but that is the only downside to staying. Without USC administration backstabbing the PAC-10 the conference will be stronger. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
debbieduck No. 10 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 10/12/2022 at 10:25 PM, Nevada Dawg said: The biggest problem with being in the B1G is that the state with the abundance of high school talent is Ohio and Ohio State "owns" it recruiting-wise. That being the case, they will continue to dominate the B1G. A 12-team playoff field means that Oregon in the PAC-whatever will reach the playoffs more often but...3 out of every 4 seasons seems to be excessive to me. Who’s going to compete with Oregon? Washington? If we keep getting ten times more talent, then we should dominate the pac Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kamikaze Kid Moderator No. 11 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Houston, BYU, UNLV and SD St would create a great little SW grouping added with the four corners schools. Owning the West coast outside of LA, the Mountain West and South West is about as big of picture that the Pac can realistically paint. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tandaian No. 12 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Unfortunately, we aren't talking about the Pac 12 getting 10 million less per year than the B1G TEN or SEC. The B1G TEN signed a 7 year 8.4 billion dollar contract. I'm not sure how the people creating the articles say each school will get between 80-100 mil, when 1.2 billion divided by 16 equals 75 mil. SEC signed a 10 year 3 billion dollar contract for only their old CBS games. This is above and beyond their current ESPN contract. As far as I can tell the SEC will be #2 behind the B1G Ten, let's say 70 mil per school. Pac 12 was hoping to get 500 mil per season, but that was with USC and UCLA. The number I heard thrown around is USC and UCLA are worth 30% of the TV revenue. That brings the contract down to 350 mil per year. If the Pac 12 stays at 10 schools, that is 35 mil per school per year. Pac 12 is going to fall behind by 35-40 mil per school per year. The CFP is supposedly worth 450 mil. However, we don't know how they are going to divide that money. It likely will be like March Madness and each conference gets a "point" based on number of games played. If that is true, the expanded CFP will not help get the Pac 12, ACC or Big 12 more money to catch up with the SEC and B1G TEN. It will actually give the SEC and B1G TEN more money over the other conferences. If Oregon wants to be on equal footing making money, they have to move to the B1G TEN, but they have to go with UW, Stanford and Cal. I truly think USC and UCLA are going to lose Olympic sport athletes once it is shown flying 2,000 miles for all away games sucks. Fanbase_Sizes-DRAFTv1.pdf - Google Drive DRIVE.GOOGLE.COM B1G TEN TV market, TV fanbase Rutgers (1) NY, 1.18 mil Illinois/Northwestern (3) Chicago 1.36 mil, 0.82 mil Penn State (4) Philly 6.36 mil Minnesota (14) Minneapolis 1.26 mil Michigan/MSU (15) Detroit 6.26 mil, 3.07 mil Indiana/Purdue (25) Indianapolis 0.61 mil Maryland (28) Baltimore 1.91 mil tOSU (33) Columbus 11.26 mil Iowa (68) Des Moines 2.36 mil Nebraska (72) Omaha 2.55 mil Wisconsin (81) Madison 4.57 mil Pac 12 TV Market, TV fanbase Cal/Stanford (6) SF 1.14 mil, 0.89 mil ASU (11) Phoenix 1.95 mil Washington (12) Seattle 2.46 mil Oregon (21) Portland 5.54 mil Colorado (16) Denver 0.95 mil Utah (30) SLC 1.09 mil Arizona (64) Tuscon 1.04 mil OSU 0.79 mil WSU 0.85 mil So, market size Oregon, UW, Cal/Stanford are bigger than half of the B1G TEN. TV fanbase Oregon and Washington have bigger numbers than half of the B1G TEN. Stanford can have big TV numbers when they are playing well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GODUCKS15 No. 13 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 10/13/2022 at 9:05 AM, Just Ducky said: I truly believe that if the pack can’t find a way to hang together then our beloved Ducks sports will take a huge hit. Our only hope to the championship we most want will be to come out of the pack. Our playoff chances would diminish considerably if we were to go on a bunch of road games back in the midwest every season. Our history of road losses confirms this. As far as recruiting out of LA I think there are a lot of kids down there eager to get out of that town. If you have been there then you know what a nightmare it is. Oregon is still close to home and recruiting LA can still be manageable. Whatever happens with expansion, I agree, needs to happen soon. I hope our new commish has the proper adjustments in place to make this happen but there are very few sighs that it is happening. Not sure it would be a bunch of road games out to the midwest. Assuming (Yeah I know what that means:)) that there's 6 teams from the P12 total going to the BG1 and it's still 9 conference games a season with 3 OOC games it could playout like this. With USC, UCLA, WA, OR, Stanford and Cal as the teams leaving the Pac that would mean 5 west coast games out of 9 conference games. If the remaining 4 games are split home and away that means only 2 games are travel to the midwest games. OOC games would still be as usual. Reduce the 6 teams to 4 and yeah it would be more road trips which I wouldn't be in favor of. Still so much unknown at this point. Agree that staying in the Pac when the CFP is expanded to 12 would favor the Ducks big time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noDucknewby No. 14 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Still not enough information in my book. We don't know what kind of TV/streaming deal we're getting. Indications are it'll be maybe half of what the B1G members are getting. That big of an income gap eventually becomes a talent gap, I just don't see any way around that. Can GK pull it off? I'm certainly rooting for him and I would like nothing more than for the Pac-? to remain viable, but realistically if the B1G comes calling we have to go. Don't like it, sad but true IMHO. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeotechDuck No. 15 Share Posted October 13, 2022 The only concern with staying in the Pac-10, as others have pointed out, is the discrepancy in revenue, which will be roughly $30M a year. When revenue sharing starts with the players, things will fall off quickly for schools not in the BIG or SEC and the gap will continue to widen. What good is it making the BCS/playoff, if you just get run off the field every time like Notre Dame? I want Oregon to stay in the Pac-10, but the conference has to come up with a creative plan to close that revenue gap, or the entire conference is toast IMO. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDuck No. 16 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noDucknewby No. 17 Share Posted October 13, 2022 (edited) Kevin Warren would kill the Pac-12 off in heartbeat. He may have already. What the presidents don't have an appetite for is sharing any of their newfound wealth. Can't say I blame them there, if you were Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers or Maryland would you want Oregon and Washington to come in and bump you further down the ladder while giving up revenue in the process? Wilner is usually pretty insightful and well-connected, but all I read here is that there's no hurry. They could offer Oregon and Washington membership tomorrow or in five years and they almost certainly would be accept. Warren knows this, he's holding all the cards waiting for the best time to go all in. Edited October 13, 2022 by noDucknewby Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 18 Share Posted October 13, 2022 I will never believe the Big 10 gives a rat's arse what happens to the Pac-12. Ever. Unless raiding it means they get to cop USC and UCLA for themselves (into their $ market). What? Are we supposed to suddenly believe the Big-10 has higher, more altruistic values than just $$$ and prestige on their minds? Seriously? If you believe that well ... I know a bridge on the McKenzie Pass by-way, just south of Dee Wright for sale. Send your money to Charles Fischer and tell him it's for Mic. I'll see you get a deed to the bridge. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus No. 19 Share Posted October 13, 2022 "Unfortunately, we aren't talking about the Pac 12 getting 10 million less per year than the B1G TEN or SEC. The B1G TEN signed a 7 year 8.4 billion dollar contract. I'm not sure how the people creating the articles say each school will get between 80-100 mil, when 1.2 billion divided by 16 equals 75 mil. " Because the 75 million is only the media rights part of the revenue. It does not include BTN revenue, for example. Big Ten Network revenue dwarfs PAC 12 Network revenue. Also, the media rights agreement is for seven years, but it is back loaded. The first year will make the least amount of money, which is when the B1G will not include USC and UCLA. They join in year 2 of the media rights agreement. Also, CBS isn't paying as much in year one because they will be in the final year of their SEC agreement. CBS will not show as many B1G games in 2023 as they will starting in 2024 when the SEC contract is finished. Towards the end of the agreement, each school will be making upwards of 100 million from the media rights agreement alone. Also, keep in mind that while the playoffs have expanded, the method of payout to conferences has not been announced. I don't think the B1G and SEC expanded the playoffs out of good will. While the P5 all make equal amounts of revenue from the 4 team playoff, that is going to change. I've read reports that said the B1G and SEC could command 50% of total 12 team CFP revenue. Everyone else would split the other 50% in some capacity. The PAC 12, Big 12 and ACC would get more than the G5 conferences, but they will not get as much as the B1G and SEC like they currently do. The revenue gaps are only going to widen further. When it comes to money, it's going to be the B1G and SEC and then everybody else. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 20 Share Posted October 14, 2022 (edited) On 10/13/2022 at 4:55 PM, Rufus said: The revenue gaps are only going to widen further. When it comes to money, it's going to be the B1G and SEC and then everybody else. To hear all this one would think $$ is all the B1G is thinking of! What, no higher motive like, maybe, Altruism? Fairness & equality? 'All-for-one-and-one-for-all', that sort of thing? How dare you ever think the B1G is driven by a profit motive! (psssst: good post). Edited October 14, 2022 by Mic Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittDuck No. 21 Share Posted October 14, 2022 On 10/12/2022 at 12:14 PM, mrspenney said: I'm old enough to remember when the conference was dominated by SC and UCLA, and it was considered to be a great season if the Ducks won 5 games. I too remember when a good season was winning more than 4, and a great season meant a Bowl Game. (Those we’re the days when a Bowl Game was a Bowl Game, and there were no “bottom-feeder”.bowls.) I am delighted to know that Oregon’s dominance over the LA schools since the turn of the century, is what caused them to look to leave the Conference of Champions! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
