Should Oregon Go It Alone?

[Dave23]

I know it's been discussed here before but as more details have come in should Oregon become an independent?

 

To start off I'm a big fan of the PAC 12 and would love to see it stay together and prosper. That being said if poor media deals or if teams moving to the Big 12 would Oregon be better off going their own way?

 

Oregon's brand is huge and according to recent studies it has the seventh largest fan base in college football. Notre Dame has successfully been independent and has built the second largest fan base  while maintaining the power to make their own schedule and media deals.

 

If the Duck could retain a lot of their rivalry games with Washington, Oregon State, Stanford plus add some of the other big programs to the mix such as Texas, Oklahoma, or one of the traitor LA schools. Could they still bring in $50 million media deal and not joint the Big 10 thus eliminating flying halfway across the country every other weekend.

 

I feel like I would prefer this over joining the Big, 10 but would it work?

[Tandaian]

Notre Dame is only Independent in football.

[Washington Waddler]

     Geographic position would most likely still play an important part in any lucrative independent media deal for the Ducks. What feeds Notre Dame’s contracts (and keeps them reasonably sane) are the attractive prime time match-ups with teams no more than one or two states away from Indiana. At this time, can the west coast provide the same attractive match-ups that the midwest, south and east can? 
 

     Oregon would most likely end-up doing as an independent the same thing USC and UCLA will be doing as members of the B1G, and for the same reason: putting in a lot of air hours for the $$.

[Dave23]

On 2/11/2023 at 11:55 AM, Washington Waddler said:

Oregon would most likely end-up doing as an independent the same thing USC and UCLA will be doing as members of the B1G

Maybe I should rephrase and say can Oregon avoid playing in the Midwest in November and December giving the home team an even bigger advantage.

 

ND only played four away games during the regular season in 22 and only 2 during November and December 1 at Syracuse and 1 USC. They regularly get teams with large media markets to play them at home. I would rather take on 1 cold weather game against a cupcake then take on 4 cold weather games against B1G opponent.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/11/2023 at 1:35 PM, Dave23 said:

I know it's been discussed here before but as more details have come in should Oregon become an independent?

 

To start off I'm a big fan of the PAC 12 and would love to see it stay together and prosper. That being said if poor media deals or if teams moving to the Big 12 would Oregon be better off going their own way?

 

Oregon's brand is huge and according to recent studies it has the seventh largest fan base in college football. Notre Dame has successfully been independent and has built the second largest fan base  while maintaining the power to make their own schedule and media deals.

 

If the Duck could retain a lot of their rivalry games with Washington, Oregon State, Stanford plus add some of the other big programs to the mix such as Texas, Oklahoma, or one of the traitor LA schools. Could they still bring in $50 million media deal and not joint the Big 10 thus eliminating flying halfway across the country every other weekend.

 

I feel like I would prefer this over joining the Big, 10 but would it work?

Well worth the thought Dave but it doesn't pencil out. Oregon even with a very strong brand will not get the CFB playoff love shown to ND. It will not have a playoff vote and under the format for the 2024/25 seasons would not have a chance at a conference championship and a 1st round bye. 

 

Also, I do not think the Ducks for its other sports could find a deal like Notre Dame has with the ACC. All sports other than football and hockey (B1G member for hockey) compete in the ACC and the football team is guaranteed 4 to 6 ACC games a year which makes CFB scheduling far easier. And Notre Dame football is covered exclusively by NBC for broadcast purposes but is also covered by the ESPN-owned ACC Network.

[noDucknewby]

BYU decided the B12 was better than being an independent and they have at least as much national following as the Ducks.  We need a conference to stay relevant IMHO, we have a hard enough time scheduling non-conference games as it is.

[Dave23]

On 2/11/2023 at 1:33 PM, noDucknewby said:

BYU decided the B12 was better than being an independent and they have at least as much national following as the Ducks. We need a conference to stay relevant IMHO, we have a hard enough time scheduling non-conference games as it is.

It's not even close the duck come in at 5.5 million fans BYU just under 1 million. We have no problem scheduling the big boys Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Ohio State ect. This is greatly to our detriment in most years making it hard to go undefeated which the playoff committee likes more than anything.

[Dave23]

On 2/11/2023 at 12:57 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Well worth the thought Dave but it doesn't pencil out. Oregon even with a very strong brand will not get the CFB playoff love shown to ND. It will not have a playoff vote and under the format for the 2024/25 seasons would not have a chance at a conference championship and a 1st round bye. 

 

Also, I do not think the Ducks for its other sports could find a deal like Notre Dame has with the ACC. All sports other than football and hockey (B1G member for hockey) compete in the ACC and the football team is guaranteed 4 to 6 ACC games a year which makes CFB scheduling far easier. And Notre Dame football is covered exclusively by NBC for broadcast purposes but is also covered by the ESPN-owned ACC Network.

If Oregon goes undefeated or loses one game they're in the playoffs. As far as basketball is concerned can't they like Notre Dame just stay in the PAC 12 I believe there's other schools that are in one conference in football and a different conference in basketball. Organs basketball program is also pretty strong.

[noDucknewby]

On 2/11/2023 at 12:41 PM, Dave23 said:

It's not even close the duck come in at 5.5 million fans BYU just under 1 million. We have no problem scheduling the big boys Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Ohio State ect. This is greatly to our detriment in most years making it hard to go undefeated which the playoff committee likes more than anything.

Can you cite your numbers?  

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/11/2023 at 3:43 PM, Dave23 said:

If Oregon goes undefeated or loses one game they're in the playoffs. As far as basketball is concerned can't they like Notre Dame just stay in the PAC 12 I believe there's other schools that are in one conference in football and a different conference in basketball. Organs basketball program is also pretty strong.

What would the incentive be for the remaining conference members to allow Oregon to do so?

 

In fact I would expect many of the remaining conference schools would refuse to schedule and independent Duck football team and other sports? 

 

I like the thought you have as part and parcel of 'everything' being on the table but I just do not believe being independent in CFB would work for Oregon. 

[Haywarduck]

It would take a big donor to buy a large jet custom built to transport football players, team. I know when I fly first class it is a different flight, and impact than when I fly cattle car class.

 

Can you imagine Oregon going it alone, and flying into locals with the Big Duck Jet? We blow away the rest with our facilities, how about our jet? 

 

The amount of money in college sports it just might pencil out. Talk about a recruiting advantage, tour the university, the facilities, and the Duck Jet!

[Dave23]

On 2/11/2023 at 1:44 PM, noDucknewby said:

Can you cite your numbers?  

I would prefer that the PAC stayed together but if the media contract comes in under the Big 12 there will be defectors making this a real scenario.

 

This is where I got my numbers from, note this is fan size not media market. I use fan sizes as the metric as Notre Dame's media market is quite small as well.

 

https://www.thesportscol.com/2022/07/size-matters-in-college-football-size-of-fan-base-that-is/#:~:text=Only two sustaining schools (members,bit over 1 million fans).

Edited February 11, 2023 by Dave23
Spelling

[Dave23]

On 2/11/2023 at 2:00 PM, Jon Joseph said:

What would the incentive be for the remaining conference members to allow Oregon to do so?

 

In fact I would expect many of the remaining conference schools would refuse to schedule and independent Duck football team and other sports? 

 

I like the thought you have as part and parcel of 'everything' being on the table but I just do not believe being independent in CFB would work for Oregon. 

The whole premise of my thought was if The pac-12 media contract is so poor that teams defect to The Big 12 leaving Oregon in the position to have to join a different conference to remain relevant. Kind of a mute point on whether Oregon could schedule games with ex pack 12 members. 

 

I don't believe Oregon has a very good chance of winning the Big 10 conference and getting an automatic bid to the playoffs as they would have Ohio State, Michigan, USC, and Penn State to get by every year. 

[Dave23]

On 2/11/2023 at 2:10 PM, Haywarduck said:

It would take a big donor to buy a large jet custom built to transport football players, team. I know when I fly first class it is a different flight, and impact than when I fly cattle car class.

 

Can you imagine Oregon going it alone, and flying into locals with the Big Duck Jet? We blow away the rest with our facilities, how about our jet? 

 

The amount of money in college sports it just might pencil out. Talk about a recruiting advantage, tour the university, the facilities, and the Duck Jet!

I like it it's all about the bling nowadays. And just think if we're like Notre Dame we may only use that jet four times a year. The more I look at Notre Dame the more I don't understand how they're not more successful.

[noDucknewby]

On 2/11/2023 at 1:10 PM, Dave23 said:

I would prefer that the PAC stayed together but if the media contract comes in under the Big 12 there will be defectors making this a real scenario.

 

This is where I got my numbers from, note this is fan size not media market. I use fan sizes as the metric as Notre Dame's media market is quite small as well.

 

https://www.thesportscol.com/2022/07/size-matters-in-college-football-size-of-fan-base-that-is/#:~:text=Only two sustaining schools (members,bit over 1 million fans).

I'm unfamiliar with that source, but for the sake of argument I'll concede those numbers.

 

That said we are currently guaranteed 9 Power 5 games a year and we almost always have at least 1 Power 5 non-conference opponent.  Sure we're able to play teams like Georgia and tOSU, but that's only 1 of 12 games.  We're currently playing 9-10 Power 5 opponents annually and just don't see how we match that as an independent.

 

Here's the current independents according to Fox Sport:

 

Independents (FBS) College Football Conference Standings

WWW.FOXSPORTS.COM

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View the Independents (FBS) NCAA college football conference Conference standings and conference rankings.

 

Other than ND there's no team there that has ever made the CFP or has much of  a chance to at that.  Some also are independent just for football as others have pointed out.  If we bailed on the P12, other than OSU how many P12 schools would still be willing to schedule us in football or other sports?  Are we anxious to schedule USC and UCLA now that they have bailed?  Sure some will because of proximity, but I think we'll have a difficult time coming up with the quality of opponents we currently have.

 

I think that one way or another we'll land on our feet in the expansion roulette, but IMHO it would be very difficult for us to be as relevant as an independent as in a conference.

Edited February 11, 2023 by noDucknewby

[AllOregon]

No.

If the math penciled out to be independent, it would have penciled out for the B1G to give an invite.

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/11/2023 at 4:15 PM, Dave23 said:

The whole premise of my thought was if The pac-12 media contract is so poor that teams defect to The Big 12 leaving Oregon in the position to have to join a different conference to remain relevant. Kind of a mute point on whether Oregon could schedule games with ex pack 12 members. 

 

I don't believe Oregon has a very good chance of winning the Big 10 conference and getting an automatic bid to the playoffs as they would have Ohio State, Michigan, USC, and Penn State to get by every year. 

Come 2024 you will not have to win your conference to be a playoff participant. There will be a 12-team field which I think is likely to expand to 16 come 2026. 

 

Being in a conference gives you 2 shots. Making the field as a conference champ or receiving an at-large bid. Notre Dame has 1 shot; receiving an at-large bid and being seeded no higher than 5 in a 12-team field.

 

The B1G E will likely disappear when SC/UCLA join and divisions disappear plus SC will make the B1G harder to win than the Pac-10 or whatever the number may be. 

 

But the B1G is top-heavy as is the SEC. In the B1G Oregon would not be playing OH ST, MI, Penn St, and SC every season. Oregon in football would be very competitive in the B1G. The last regular season ended with 6 Pac-12 and 3 B1G CFB teams ranked.

[2002duck]

On 2/11/2023 at 11:39 AM, Dave23 said:

cold weather game

Notre Dame home games are cold Midwestern games in late October, November, and December. Notre Dame is basically a Big 10 team. 

 

I'd like Oregon to go independent in a best case scenario, but what if nobody wants to play us? Schedules are already made for many years out.

[TXDuck]

I enjoy everyone’s thoughts and ideas on Oregon. Some are outside the box and that’s great because nothing is off the table. There may be items that have a close to 0% chance of happening but we never know where leaderships heads are. I like the idea of being independent but don’t see how it will work, so many have correctly pointed out geography is our hamstring. Also, is there a provider out there willing to pay 45-50 million a year for exclusive rights to Oregon football?  
 

ND’s days are numbered as an independent in football. While their fan base may not want to hear or admit to this, ND football is not what it was in the 90’s. As teams and conferences continue to realign ND will either join a conference or get left behind.

 

Unfortunately I see the  PAC-12 conference days being numbered as well (praying I’m wrong). There is power in numbers when negotiating and a PAC12 / Big12 merge would provide that power for negotiating quality TV deals. I also happen to agree with the folks out there saying we’re headed to 4 super conferences and a 16 team playoff.

 

Our last administration for the conference made decisions best for themselves and not the conference. Those garbage decisions led to the LA schools being bought off (running away), which has left us in a weak and powerless position as a conference.

 

Realignment moves are still be planned and made behind closed doors away from the public’s eyes and ears. What if any TV deal the PAC12 can muster is the lynch pin. Get a solid deal and we have time to get our conference in order. Don’t make a deal… will we stick together and merge with a conference or scatter to the wind?

 

These are just my thoughts and ramblings so take them with a grain of salt. 
 

Thanks for reading and Go Ducks.

[spartan2785]

Notre Dame has a deal with the ACC for football and is in the league in all other sports, it wouldn't Oregon, we can think we are a big deal, but the reality is that we would struggle to schedule meaningful games in the middle and back half of the schedule, do you really think we could attract good teams to play us in November?  Pac-12 schools would probably want nothing to do with us if we left to become an independent.   How would our other sports work?  It's just not a feasible idea in my opinion.  This is not even mentioning that we would not being able to attract the sort of media money that would make this even enticing.

 

The faster we eventually get into the Big10 the better, it sucks, but I see it as the way forward with a pod of 5 others from the west coast..

[Charles Fischer]

On 2/13/2023 at 7:48 AM, TXDuck said:

ND’s days are numbered as an independent in football.

Many astute ND fans would disagree; they have an independent media contract that is about to be renewed and will be bigger than anything the rest of us get.

 

They also have religious dictates they have to follow, and do not want to get tied into a conference and required by contract to be a part of something they don't morally agree with.  (Something in the future)

 

A BIG ND fan explained all this to me and was posted here in the forum in the past.  I do not believe ND is joining any conference; they are doing fine on their own between five ACC games a year, and the rest of their schedule.

 

And they are back in the top 25, thus have the eyeballs.

 

I am not in favor of going independent, as scheduling would be difficult.

[Jon Joseph]

Notre Dame football joining full-time would be a boon to the ACC that could then re-work its lousy media agreement.

 

Notre Dame has an open invitation to join the B1G. 

 

But as Charles so notes Notre Dame dearly values its independence in football. Its AD is treated the same as a conference commissioner at the playoff table. It has a perfect relationship with the ACC for all other sports other than hockey where it plays in the B1G. It is guaranteed 4 to 6 ACC games yearly, which makes scheduling far easier. 

 

NBC is staying with Notre Dame and will also be broadcasting a B1G game every weekend. 

 

Unless the conference commissioners in 2026 demote Notre Dame from its status as a voting playoff committee member it has no reason to abandon its football independence.

 

Oregon as an independent would not get the 'most favored nation' treatment as does Notre Dame and as Charles and others so correctly point out scheduling would be a witch. The B12 would not give Oregon the same treatment as the ACC gives Notre Dame. So, where would Oregon go for its other sports? The Mountain West? That's a G5 non-starter.

 

Be of good cheer. With its brand Oregon will find a place for Puddles to play.

[OregonDucks]

With the expanded college football playoff, my preference would be for Oregon to remain in the Pac. 

 

However, if the revenues are lower than the B1G and SEC, as expected, Oregon may have to look to make up the difference with private donations or cut non-profitable sports to remain competitive.

 

If the revenues are significantly lower than the Big XII, then there will be risk of some defectors (the Arizona schools?).  At that point, the Pac would likely not be worth saving.  Perhaps the B1G looks to poach the remaining attractive Pac schools (e.g., Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal), if reports are correct that they did not want to be the ones responsible for breaking up the Pac (note: they would have all of the leverage and could offer the remaining Pac schools a lower share of the TV revenues for a period of time)?  If not, Oregon would have to explore all remaining options, including (holding my nose) joining the Big 12.

[Dave23]

On 2/12/2023 at 2:08 AM, 2002duck said:

Notre Dame home games are cold Midwestern games in late October, November, and December. Notre Dame is basically a Big 10 team. 

 

I'd like Oregon to go independent in a best case scenario, but what if nobody wants to play us? Schedules are already made for many years out.

The key is that it's there home field and they practice in the cold and live in the cold.

 

The fear that no one would schedule Oregon is overblown. Oregon has over 5 million fans when you play them your viewership goes through the roof. Why does anyone's schedule Notre Dame? 

 

Oregon's Brand is the biggest of any team not in the SEC, B1G or Notre Dame and is 7th biggest in college football. Media market is in my opinion going to count for very little soon, UCLA is losing so much money on sports but is in the second biggest market in the nation. How dose Fox make money on UCLA games when only a few thousand people are even willing to show up to the game.

 

The metric that will come to the for front will be viewership. Advertising on the Internet is all based on clicks and views not potential market size. This is why going the Internet route might be best for Oregon as they have 5.5 million fans but the networks only want to pay then for the greater Portland media market of a little over a million.

 

Most teams could not get away with going independent but if anyone could of Oregon.

[Dave23]

On 2/13/2023 at 10:42 AM, Charles Fischer said:

I am not in favor of going independent, as scheduling would be difficult.

Why do teams schedule Notre Dame?

 

Do you think Washington would stop scheduling the Ducks or Oregon State? Those games are guaranteed high viewership every year, even in down years. For that matter Oregon had the best viewership of any PAC 12 team. Do teams not want to schedule games with high viewship? 

 

I just don't think spite will overpower the almighty dollar. 

[GeotechDuck]

On 2/14/2023 at 2:54 PM, Dave23 said:

I just don't think spite will overpower the almighty dollar. 

 

This is a good take and it is already happening.  The PAC is going to allow USC and UCLA to stay in conference for a few sports, such as men's and women's beach volleyball.  If I was the PAC-12 Commissioner, I would have told them to pound sand and to play their beach volleyball games in Piscataway, NJ in December, but that is probably why I am not in charge.  

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/14/2023 at 6:36 PM, GeotechDuck said:

 

This is a good take and it is already happening.  The PAC is going to allow USC and UCLA to stay in conference for a few sports, such as men's and women's beach volleyball.  If I was the PAC-12 Commissioner, I would have told them to pound sand and to play their beach volleyball games in Piscataway, NJ in December, but that is probably why I am not in charge.  

But probably should be?

[2002duck]

On 2/14/2023 at 2:54 PM, Dave23 said:

Do you think Washington would stop scheduling the Ducks or Oregon State?

Yes. Why would they schedule the Ducks? They only have three non-conference games, and they're generally not going to schedule someone they might lose to. Also, spite is 100% a thing. No Pac 10 team should *ever* schedule USC or UCLA for a non-conference game in the future. The same thing would go for an independent Oregon. If you want to play OSU and UW, you might as well stay in the Pac 10.

[duck023]

I'm for whatever will make Oregon's schedule easier. Oregon year in and year out have a tougher gauntlet of games than Alabama and I actually respect Alabama's schedule. It's not as easy as Clemson's at least but I'm for Oregon having a Clemson like schedule.

[Dave23]

On 2/14/2023 at 6:18 PM, 2002duck said:

Yes. Why would they schedule the Ducks?

For the viewership which = money.

 

There's also tradition and if you read my original post this is based off the premised the pac-12 collapses due to poor media contract. So Washington will only continue to play Oregon if they follow them to whatever conference the Puppies prefer.

 

I'm not saying I want them to leave the PAC I hope the conference lives on forever. But if it comes down to the Big 12 or B1G I think the Duck would have a good chance of making it as an independent.

[2002duck]

I see. Well, I hope Oregon goes to the B1G tomorrow. I don't want any Duck games to be stream-only. 

 

If the conference collapses Oregon could join the Big 12 for a few years for a reduced payout (because we would not sign a long-term contract), or we could go Independent with UW. Then it would make sense to play UW or any other independents. I just don't see any former Pac 10 team scheduling us if they were in the Big-12 unless OSU I suppose. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/14/2023 at 10:36 PM, duck023 said:

I'm for whatever will make Oregon's schedule easier. Oregon year in and year out have a tougher gauntlet of games than Alabama and I actually respect Alabama's schedule. It's not as easy as Clemson's at least but I'm for Oregon having a Clemson like schedule.

BAMA - LSU, TX A+M, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miss State, Arkansas. I do not see the Ducks 'usual' conference schedule being more difficult than this. 

 

And in 2023 the Tide hosts Texas while Oregon plays at Texas Tech.

[Dave23]

On 2/14/2023 at 10:59 PM, 2002duck said:

I hope Oregon goes to the B1G tomorrow. I don't want any Duck games to be stream-only. 

If the B1G wants Oregon but due to the relatively small media market they may not want them.

 

I'm having a hard time finding out exactly the size of the Ducks media market. A Reddit post, which I don't entirely trust, has the ducks at 126, meanwhile they were the 7th most watched team in the nation last year. 

 

Oregon is set to make less money than all of the SEC, B1G, Big 12, and Notre Dame. That's almost 40 teams ahead of them when they are the 7th most watched team in the nation. How do they get paid in accordance with their viewership? 

 

Would CBS, ESPN,  or NBC want to broadcast Oregon games that average 2.2 million viewers last year? I would think so. What they don't want is to have to air ASU games that average 314k last year.

 

I've read a few articles on media markets versus viewership and old school broadcasters like Fox still use media market numbers hence them going after USC and UCLA.

 

 

[duck023]

On 2/15/2023 at 11:06 AM, Jon Joseph said:

BAMA - LSU, TX A+M, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miss State, Arkansas. I do not see the Ducks 'usual' conference schedule being more difficult than this. 

 

And in 2023 the Tide hosts Texas while Oregon plays at Texas Tech.

Other than Alabama and LSU those teams don't worry me anymore than the Arizona teams(especially on the road), Stanford, Washington St and Oregon St. Also, Oregon has lost that 2nd to last game a bunch of times while Alabama plays an out of conference team that has almost zero chance of winning. Speaking of which Alabama plays only 8 conference games while Oregon plays 9. Lastly, Oregon has an equal amount of home and away games while Alabama usually has twice as many home games as away games. Don't even get me started on Clemson who is similar to Alabama's schedule but with Moutain West level teams besides maybe North Carolina.