Oregon, Washington B1G Consideration After April 17th

[Rufus]

Conference realignment: Oregon, Washington Big Ten consideration unlikely before mid-April, per report

247SPORTS.COM

Looks like the door may be open to a move to the B1G, but not until a new B1G commissioner is in place. 

[Charles Fischer]

I doubt all of it...

 

And Dodd has lost a ton of my respect in the last couple of months. 

 

[woundedknees]

If it sounds like bs, looks like bs... RIiight!

 

'I'll buy that for a dollar!"

[GODUCKS15]

He lost me at this;

 

Feldman explained on The Rich Eisen Show. “Right now, they’re in a league that feels like, I don’t want to say it’s fallen apart into nonexistence, but it is on such shaky ground. It is so diminished from where it was (initially). It’s not sensible for them to stay if they have other choices.”

[Jon Joseph]

Where will the money come from to add Oregon and UW?

 

FOX after tying up LA is not bidding for the new Pac-10 media rights. If FOX doesn't approve further expansion it will not happen without a streaming component for west coast games. FOX does not want ESPN anywhere near LA.

 

ESPN is bidding for Pac-10 rights but ESPN's parent Disney is cost-cutting. And with Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC a year earlier than expected, in 2024, not 2025, ESPN will have to come up with an additional $140M a year earlier than planned. 

 

What share will Oregon and UW receive from the B1G? The schools would likely be offered more than they will earn from the Pac-10 deal but will not be receiving a full share as will USC, UCLA, Northwestern, and Rutgers among other B1G members. Will it be enough to entice Oregon and UW to leave behind Oregon State and Washington State and to subject its athletes to travel akin to what pro teams on the west coast face? 

 

With the CFB playoff expanding to 12 teams in 2024 and with the 6 highest ranked conference champions in the field if GK can come with money equal to or above the B12 money and bigger revenue shares for success in the CFB and CBB tournaments does it behoove Oregon competition wise to join the B1G?  (It is also rumored that the field for the NCAA CBB tournament is going to expand.)

 

On average, 35% of athletic revenue is generated by media deals. Oregon athletics brought in over $100M last season with a comparatively crummy media deal and playing on a crummy network. I'm not sure it is a slam dunk that if offered a spot in the B1G that Oregon will automatically accept.

Edited March 10, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/10/2023 at 12:30 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

He lost me at this;

 

Feldman explained on The Rich Eisen Show. “Right now, they’re in a league that feels like, I don’t want to say it’s fallen apart into nonexistence, but it is on such shaky ground. It is so diminished from where it was (initially). It’s not sensible for them to stay if they have other choices.”

More idle speculation which we will hear until the details of the Pac-10 deal are released.

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/10/2023 at 9:10 AM, Rufus said:

Conference realignment: Oregon, Washington Big Ten consideration unlikely before mid-April, per report

247SPORTS.COM

Looks like the door may be open to a move to the B1G, but not until a new B1G commissioner is in place. 

The unsourced spin beats on.

[Charles Fischer]

On 3/10/2023 at 9:31 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Oregon athletics brought in over $100M last season with a comparatively crummy media deal and playing on a crummy network. I'm not sure it is a slam dunk that offered a spot in the B1G that Oregon will automatically accept?

Especially if Oregon can negotiate a surplus amount compared to the OSUs, and WSUs of the world to reflect our bigger audience and market.  If the Pac-12 can give us more than an equal share, and we can make the playoffs easier in the Pac-12 and thus make LOTS more money from that, (and national exposure that elevates the brand)...does it make sense to leave under those circumstances?

[Tandaian]

I'm not sure getting more money from March Madness or CFP will be anywhere near as much as Oregon needs to keep up with the B1G and SEC.

 

The pac 12 got 18 mil from March Madness in 2022, so 1.5 mil per school.  I doubt the Pac 12 will give 50% to any team.  Let's say the Ducks get 4 mil.

Pac 12 will bring in around 260 mil when it moves to 12 teams.  That means 26 mil per team, but the SEC will bringing in 28 mil per team when they go to 12 teams.  Maybe, the Ducks get an extra 20%, so their cut would be around 31 mil.

 

So, if they do performance based payments, Ducks get an extra 9 or 10 mil a year.  That is still 30 mil less a year than every B1G and SEC school.  Performance based payments isn't going to be nearly enough, unless it is so ruthless they don't give any money to the crappy teams.

 

 

How NCAA units turn the Pac-12's March Madness wins into big paydays

WWW.LATIMES.COM

---

With UCLA in the Final Four, the Pac-12 is having its most profitable March Madness run. Here's a look at the system that turns wins into money in the bank.

 

How Much Money Can An Expanded College Football Playoff Generate?

ATHLETICDIRECTORU.COM

---

AthleticDirectorU and Navigate present financial projections for an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP).

 

[McDuck]

On 3/10/2023 at 8:46 AM, Charles Fischer said:

And Dodd has lost a ton of my respect in the last couple of months. 

The Utah AD agrees.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/10/2023 at 1:14 PM, Tandaian said:

I'm not sure getting more money from March Madness or CFP will be anywhere near as much as Oregon needs to keep up with the B1G and SEC.

 

The pac 12 got 18 mil from March Madness in 2022, so 1.5 mil per school.  I doubt the Pac 12 will give 50% to any team.  Let's say the Ducks get 4 mil.

Pac 12 will bring in around 260 mil when it moves to 12 teams.  That means 26 mil per team, but the SEC will bringing in 28 mil per team when they go to 12 teams.  Maybe, the Ducks get an extra 20%, so their cut would be around 31 mil.

 

So, if they do performance based payments, Ducks get an extra 9 or 10 mil a year.  That is still 30 mil less a year than every B1G and SEC school.  Performance based payments isn't going to be nearly enough, unless it is so ruthless they don't give any money to the crappy teams.

 

 

How NCAA units turn the Pac-12's March Madness wins into big paydays

WWW.LATIMES.COM

---

With UCLA in the Final Four, the Pac-12 is having its most profitable March Madness run. Here's a look at the system that turns wins into money in the bank.

 

How Much Money Can An Expanded College Football Playoff Generate?

ATHLETICDIRECTORU.COM

---

AthleticDirectorU and Navigate present financial projections for an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP).

 

Great take and I certainly agree with the math but Oregon and UW would not be joining the B1G at a full revenue share. I expect if an offer is extended that the media money will be somewhat north of the Pac-10 new media deal but not close to a full share. So, out of the gate, Oregon would be competing in a conference as a 'junior member.'

 

Without a full media share can the Ducks finish higher than Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and USC? In a 12-team football playoff with 6 highest ranked champs in the field, I do not see the B1G/SEC getting more than 3 AL teams in the field.

 

Had we had a 12-team playoff seeded like the field will be in 2024, Utah would have been in the top 4 and would have received a first round bye.

 

We'll see what kind of media deal the Pac-10 puts on the table but I am not that convinced, especially with a lesser share and much increased travel expenses, that the grass will be that much greener in the B1G.

Edited March 10, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[Washington Waddler]

     Pro-conference pundits are a hopelessly provincial lot; as they should be. You look at the names, then at where they were born, live and went to school, and 99.9% of the time that will tell you all you need to know as to whether or not they are for or against PAC 12 survival.  
 

     What provokes them is the same energy and passion they feel when their team is driving into an opponent’s side of the field: destroying your opponent with more yards + bigger score = winning. In a game, this makes perfect sense, but does this same logic hold when applied to the bigger picture of destroying conferences in order to grow your own?

 

     What fuels the passion for football is the over-coming of your enemies in order to have a chance at grasping the brass ring. But, when you can no longer tell friend from foe because you’ve absorbed your traditional enemy into your conference, you begin to resemble something like the Roman Empire (which was partially undone by those same folk they thought they’d conquered).

 

     Unlike real life, games don’t lead to the possible gain of your enemy’s territory. You win or lose, and still go home. But many of war’s destructive principles still apply, primarily survivalism’s faceless immorality of ‘business as usual’ for the purpose of financial gain. That’s what destroys the game.

 

     But, it is also what leads me to the understanding that money and getting bigger can’t hold a candle to the power of territorialism. That same provincial force that drives the pundits is what - in the end - will likely at some point bring the PAC 12 back together again, and better than ever. It’s only a matter of time.

[Steven A]

On 3/10/2023 at 8:14 AM, Tandaian said:

I'm not sure getting more money from March Madness or CFP will be anywhere near as much as Oregon needs to keep up with the B1G and SEC.

I'll disagree in that we don't need that source do to two words . . . Uncle Phil

[David Marsh]

It's the continuation of the notion that the west coast (without the LA schools) has no value. 

 

Will the new PAC deal be equal to the B1G deal? No it won't... But if it's good enough then buying into a B1G deal that will require more travel and thus more expenses for a harder path to the playoff doesn't inherently make sense. 

[Tandaian]

Only Oregon and UW joining the B1G Ten wouldn't be enough to make the jump for me.  There would need to be at least 2 more teams, preferably 4 for a total of 8.  Oregon and UW would eventually become full members after some amount of time.  Oregon and UW are better brands than half the B1G TEN.  They would never join as a lesser member forever, unless the PAC 12 is gone.  Even then, they would probably go somewhere else.

 

Uncle Phil is 85 and I have no idea what he has set up for his fortune.  Does he setup a trust worth billions for UO?  Does his kids have the same love for UO, if they hold the money instead of a trust?  I'm not putting my hopes and dreams on Uncle Phil letting the UO survive in sports without a good Media deal.

[Mike West]

On 3/10/2023 at 11:38 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Great take and I certainly agree with the math but Oregon and UW would not be joining the B1G at a full revenue share. I expect if an offer is extended that the media money will be somewhat north of the Pac-10 new media deal but not close to a full share. So, out of the gate, Oregon would be competing in a conference as a 'junior member.'

 

Without a full media share can the Ducks finish higher than Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and USC? In a 12-team football playoff with 6 highest ranked champs in the field, I do not see the B1G/SEC getting more than 3 AL teams in the field.

 

Had we had a 12-team playoff seeded like the field will be in 2024, Utah would have been in the top 4 and would have received a first round bye.

 

We'll see what kind of media deal the Pac-10 puts on the table but I am not that convinced, especially with a lesser share and much increased travel expenses, that the grass will be that much greener in the B1G.

It sure would be nice to add teams like SMU and SDSU.  My reservations are how the heck are we going to draw $50-60M like we should given our brand.

 

That was going to be tough WITH USC AND UCLA in the conference.  Are we really going to continue yielding $100M plus when the dust settles next year?  

 

This really is about money.  No money no life as they say, and it will certainly effect recruiting long term.  Not to mention Utah and UW are not going to lay down for us and give us easy titles.  

 

We're assuming quite a bit expecting easy titles in a very, very diminished conference.  I'd take my chances having better access to recruiting in The Big- even against the likes of tOSU and Michigan (the only teams I feel are high caliber enough we'd always face the prospects of losing on a regular basis).

 

Where's the 50-60 million?  That's my question.  We can Garner that AND compete for playoffs in the BIG.  Why risk "sitting on the beach" in our own conference when we can certainly compete in recruiting AND playing in the money conference?

 

Show me the money.  Especially the way Tom Cruise said it. LOL.

[Jon Sousa]

On 3/10/2023 at 9:44 AM, Charles Fischer said:

...does it make sense to leave under those circumstances?

It absolutely does not.

 

Are we going to deny everything that we have said about how the long commutes, especially for the "minor sports", are going to be very hard on the student athletes???

 

Are we going to spit vitriol at the "traitors" and then become one???

[Duck 1972]

How many FB games would we have to play back East every year if we were to join the B1G?  If it were to be more than 1 then that would put us at a disadvantage.

 

As has been stated many times; in the pros it's a disadvantage to play back East, with it not being so for them to play out here. So I just can't see how it will help us just like we've been saying about the la traitors.

 

Please JK get us a deal even if it's only streaming and close in $ to the Big 12, so we can stay on the West Coast for all but maybe 1 game a year including ooc. To me that is in our best interest to getting to the playoffs, bar none.

 

I ask you a question; did we get to where we are by taking the safe route or by taking chances and being on the cutting edge and innovative? I know what the answer is for me. Go Ducks!

[Rufus]

Here is something to consider - The revenue gap between the B1G and the SEC vs. everyone else is only going to grow larger with time.  The PAC is going to become the Mountain West even if it continues to be called the PAC. Just like The American was essentially Conference USA.  
 

I bet Uncle Phil is working tirelessly behind the scenes to get Oregon into the B1G out of fear his investments will go to waste. And to be clear, if Oregon gets into the B1G, it will be thanks to Uncle Phil’s investments over the years.   He built this brand.  Oregon’s brand has outgrown its stadium. I can’t think of another brand with this much clout that plays in a 54,000 seat stadium. Oregon’s brand has outgrown its research too. While a member of the AAU, Oregon’s research output would be dead last in the B1G. Nebraska is currently in that spot, yet Nebraska’s research is three times the size of Oregon’s research.   Small stadium.  Low level research. Yet the B1G seems to be interested in Oregon. This is thanks to the Duck brand, the Duck ratings and the vast amount of investments made by Uncle Phil over the years.  
 

Given that both Oregon and Washington applied to join the B1G immediately after USC and UCLA joined, I don’t see either school turning down the offer if it comes.  But let’s assume for a second Oregon says no.  So the B1G takes Washington and Stanford. The Big 12 takes the 4 corner schools.  Is this PAC Mountain worth dying on?  Oregon becomes the next Boise State in that scenario.
 

And there have been plenty of champions from the West Coast in the professional sports.  California is home to many champions in the major sports. Location does not dictate championships in professional sports. 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Rufus

[Rufus]

This article says Oregon and Washington would enter the B1G around $40 million per year.  Keep in mind that would only be the first year. The amount would increase over time until becoming equal partners.  I’m guessing it will be a 7 year buy in. That’s what Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland were offered. Coincidentally, that will be the duration of the next B1G contract.  
 

Maryland and Rutgers still aren’t receiving a full share today only because they took out loans from the B1G in the early years and are still paying back those loans.  
 

 

Big Ten Expansion Reportedly Gets Huge Timeline Update – OutKick

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

---

Big Ten expansion might really start cooking in late April once Kevin Warren leaves. Will Oregon and Washington...

 

[HappyToBeADuck]

For discussion's sake let's say that the BIG begins negotiations for Oregon and Washington.......

 

Why not invite Stanford and Cal, too? This reduces teams traveling east for both the BIG and FOX's prize, the sacred cow that is usc.

 

This creates  a more diverse After Dark Friday and Satutday football games for FOX to offer.

 

This move would shut out ESPN, the world wide leader in sports from west coast sports. FOX would control the LA, Bay Area, Portland and Seattle media markets. Shutting out and damaging a rival? This fits FOX And USC's mission statement perfectly.

 

Now potentially, ESPN would have to raise their offer to the PAC into the $50 million per school range. Or vacate big time west coast sports.

 

Then ESPN could broadcast the revised MWC for way less money. Maybe in the $10 million per school range. This fits the new ESPN/ABC mission statement, too. Cheap, get them cheap.

 

There will be only one winner in all of this mess, FOX/BIG.

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/11/2023 at 8:48 AM, Rufus said:

Here is something to consider - The revenue gap between the B1G and the SEC vs. everyone else is only going to grow larger with time.  The PAC is going to become the Mountain West even if it continues to be called the PAC. Just like The American was essentially Conference USA.  
 

I bet Uncle Phil is working tirelessly behind the scenes to get Oregon into the B1G out of fear his investments will go to waste. And to be clear, if Oregon gets into the B1G, it will be thanks to Uncle Phil’s investments over the years.   He built this brand.  Oregon’s brand has outgrown its stadium. I can’t think of another brand with this much clout that plays in a 54,000 seat stadium. Oregon’s brand has outgrown its research too. While a member of the AAU, Oregon’s research output would be dead last in the B1G. Nebraska is currently in that spot, yet Nebraska’s research is three times the size of Oregon’s research.   Small stadium.  Low level research. Yet the B1G seems to be interested in Oregon. This is thanks to the Duck brand, the Duck ratings and the vast amount of investments made by Uncle Phil over the years.  
 

Given that both Oregon and Washington applied to join the B1G immediately after USC and UCLA joined, I don’t see either school turning down the offer if it comes.  But let’s assume for a second Oregon says no.  So the B1G takes Washington and Stanford. The Big 12 takes the 4 corner schools.  Is this PAC Mountain worth dying on?  Oregon becomes the next Boise State in that scenario.
 

And there have been plenty of champions from the West Coast in the professional sports.  California is home to many champions in the major sports. Location does not dictate championships in professional sports. 

Great take. Link to applying for admission?

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/11/2023 at 10:29 AM, Rufus said:

This article says Oregon and Washington would enter the B1G around $40 million per year.  Keep in mind that would only be the first year. The amount would increase over time until becoming equal partners.  I’m guessing it will be a 7 year buy in. That’s what Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland were offered. Coincidentally, that will be the duration of the next B1G contract.  
 

Maryland and Rutgers still aren’t receiving a full share today only because they took out loans from the B1G in the early years and are still paying back those loans.  
 

 

Big Ten Expansion Reportedly Gets Huge Timeline Update – OutKick

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

---

Big Ten expansion might really start cooking in late April once Kevin Warren leaves. Will Oregon and Washington...

 

Would the revenue share amount go up as it did with the 3 schools you mentioned? This would be up to FOX and not the B1G. Perhaps CBS/NBC could be cajoled to come up with more money?

 

Is $40M enough to make a move that means horrendous travel for CBB and the non-revenue sports?

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/10/2023 at 5:29 PM, Steven A said:

I'll disagree in that we don't need that source do to two words . . . Uncle Phil

86?

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/10/2023 at 8:22 PM, Mike West said:

It sure would be nice to add teams like SMU and SDSU.  My reservations are how the heck are we going to draw $50-60M like we should given our brand.

 

That was going to be tough WITH USC AND UCLA in the conference.  Are we really going to continue yielding $100M plus when the dust settles next year?  

 

This really is about money.  No money no life as they say, and it will certainly effect recruiting long term.  Not to mention Utah and UW are not going to lay down for us and give us easy titles.  

 

We're assuming quite a bit expecting easy titles in a very, very diminished conference.  I'd take my chances having better access to recruiting in The Big- even against the likes of tOSU and Michigan (the only teams I feel are high caliber enough we'd always face the prospects of losing on a regular basis).

 

Where's the 50-60 million?  That's my question.  We can Garner that AND compete for playoffs in the BIG.  Why risk "sitting on the beach" in our own conference when we can certainly compete in recruiting AND playing in the money conference?

 

Show me the money.  Especially the way Tom Cruise said it. LOL.

Wasn't that Cruise's client? Nevertheless, great post. To show the movie is great but dated I believe the client ended up with a $3M deal.

[Rufus]

On 3/11/2023 at 12:27 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Great take. Link to applying for admission?

I’m trying to find an old article, but haven’t had much luck. I remember reading this right after USC and UCLA joined last summer.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Rufus

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/11/2023 at 1:31 PM, Rufus said:

I’m trying to find an old article, but haven’t had much luck. I remember reading this right after USC and UCLA joined last summer.

I think that if you are not invited there is no sense in applying. However, I have no doubt that PK back-channel reached out to the B1G and is still doing so today.

 

But B1G expansion has as much or more to do with FOX than it does B1G leaders.

[lownslowav8r]

Who would you rather play against to get to the CFP?  Ohio State and Michigan (after a strenuous trip to the East) or Washington and Utah?  
 

There is a reason West Coast teams rarely get one of the blue bloods to play us at home. They are too likely to lose due to travel and our home field advantage. 
 

We ain’t joining another conference this go around no matter what the paid for spinmeisters are saying. Why would anyone want to join with schools and people that are trying to destroy you?

Edited March 11, 2023 by lownslowav8r

[GODUCKS15]

On 3/11/2023 at 1:26 PM, lownslowav8r said:

Who would you rather play against to get to the CFP?  Ohio State and Michigan (after a strenuous trip to the East) or Washington and Utah?  
 

There is a reason West Coast teams rarely get one of the blue bloods to play us at home. They are too likely to lose due to travel and our home field advantage. 
 

We ain’t joining another conference this go around no matter what the paid for spinmeisters are saying. Why would anyone want to join with schools and people that are trying to destroy you?

$$$$$$$$$$$

[McDuck]

On 3/11/2023 at 3:04 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

$$$$$$$$$$$

Prior to adding Colorado and Utah in 2010 the Pac-10 distributed media revenue 55% to the participants, 45% split 10 ways among conference members.  It isn't unreasonable a similar arrangement would be arranged for post season appearances in the new Pac-?.   

 

This years playoff netted $6 million for the conference of each participant.  Revenue projections for the expanded playoff format reach as high as $1.6 billion.  Distribution hasn't yet been determined but rest assured it will be many multiples of the $6 million payout this year.  

 

Hypothetical:  The playoff distribution rises to $20 million per participant for the first round. ($250 million total).  A 55% share is a tidy $11 million to Oregon should they qualify with more available if they advance.  Staying in the Pac with that potential payout combined with avoiding the projected additional $10 million in travel costs the LA traitors may incur goes a very long way to offsetting any additional revenue from joining the B1G.

[Rufus]

On 3/11/2023 at 4:36 PM, McDuck said:

 Hypothetical:  The playoff distribution rises to $20 million per participant for the first round. ($250 million total).  A 55% share is a tidy $11 million to Oregon should they qualify with more available if they advance.  Staying in the Pac with that potential payout combined with avoiding the projected additional $10 million in travel costs the LA traitors may incur goes a very long way to offsetting any additional revenue from joining the B1G.

The B1G and SEC will both be making playoff money too, so that won’t let the PAC or anyone else catch up to them.  Also, this 12 team playoff is only for the next two years.  Since the original contract was modified, all conferences and Notre Dame had to agree to it for the change to happen.
 

After these two years, all bets are off and I’m sure the B1G and SEC will throw their weight around to make sure they get theirs in the next CFP contract.  Extending the playoffs to 16 teams, for example, guarantees 4-5 B1G and SEC teams are in every year.  Everyone else will have 1 team, maybe 2 in a good year.  

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/11/2023 at 4:26 PM, lownslowav8r said:

Who would you rather play against to get to the CFP?  Ohio State and Michigan (after a strenuous trip to the East) or Washington and Utah?  
 

There is a reason West Coast teams rarely get one of the blue bloods to play us at home. They are too likely to lose due to travel and our home field advantage. 
 

We ain’t joining another conference this go around no matter what the paid for spinmeisters are saying. Why would anyone want to join with schools and people that are trying to destroy you?

To get to the playoff I'd rather play teams that are not historically difficult opponents.

[lownslowav8r]

On 3/11/2023 at 3:04 PM, GODUCKS15 said:

$$$$$$$$$$$

However after taking a reduced share (since we don’t bring as much media profits as the bluebloods) and having additional costs such as travel plus not making the CFP nearly as often (if at all) $$$$$$$$$$$ turns into $.