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Everything posted by noDucknewby
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Expanded CFB Playoff in Three Years? Massive Details...
noDucknewby replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Holy cow, money makes the world go around! We all knew (or suspected) that we were headed for an NFL model at some point, I'm just a little surprised it's happening so soon. It's amusing too me that the chancellors that will actually collect the money went over the heads of the bickering conference commissioners and ADs to push this forward. So what does this mean for Oregon? Being stuck in the new P-10 (or whatever) doesn't sound quite so devastating with a playoff spot pretty much reserved for the conference champ (assuming they're top 6) and possibly a second at-large bid. That said the new TV deal will still be less than half what the B1G members are getting and consequently I fear the talent gap will only get worse. I still think we have to bail if invited to the B1G but our fallback is looking a lot better. -
Thoughts About the Georgia Game (Now That Some Time Has Passed)
noDucknewby replied to a topic in Our Beloved Ducks
If this was a "measuring stick" game then we know we're no where near a top-tier SEC team in either talent or execution. Sure there are mitigating factors, but you really can't sugar-coat that kind of beat down. I really thought our defense would keep it close for at least the first half, so my biggest disappointment was just how bad they looked. This is a bit of a head-scratcher since DL is a defensive coach and we are paying TL a ton of money as a coordinator, you'd think we perform better. I guess the good news is that there's nowhere to go but up defensively. Sans Bo's picks, I liked how our offense looked but yards and first downs don't win games unless drives get finished with points. Sometimes football just boils down to blocking and tackling and this is a classic example. We didn't get badly out-schemed, they blocked really well so their offense was unstoppable and their efficient tackling kept us out of the end zone. Game over. Small silver lining, no major injuries last year's tOSU game wound up being a bit of a Pyrrhic victory. And it's one game, time to flush this one and move on. -
As my moniker suggests, this isn't my first rodeo as a Duck fan. We've had some painful losses in the past (Nebraska 63-0 comes to mind), but also glorious wins (Oregon 59-FSU 20 in the inaugural CFP). I guess this one hurts a lot more because we all thought we were past this kind of beat down. Well for now (obviously) we're not. That said our expectations were probably too high for a first time head coach in a hostile environment against the defending national champions, who BTW look like they might be even better than last year's team. Other first-time HCs promoted from coordinator jobs inherited a system and long-time coaching staff. Chip was given the keys to a Ferrari and to his credit he tore off with it (of course after a rough start at Boise). Prior to that Bellotti inherited a program on the rise with a solid staff as well. Slick Willie came in and decimated a quarter century of progress in one fell swoop. Mario inherited what was left and IMHO did a pretty good job (we all know his weaknesses, nonetheless two P12 championships and Rose Bowl wins). DL comes in as first time HC with no carry over in coaching staff or team culture. Don't get me wrong I love our guys, but the team leaders have seen a lot during their careers, been told a lot of different things and seem a little bit shell-shocked. Then their first test is against Georgia, not exactly a recipe for morale building. Perspective says it's one game, move on, sometimes easier said than done. More than one knowledgeable analyst has predicted a 1-2 start because of a brutal September schedule. Our most important game is the next one, we just have to get right and beat EWU before we worry about BYU and then go from there.
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No way we're top 20. This is a reality check right out of the gate. Georgia is really good. Really, really good. Our defense is terrible right now. Brady Hoke bad. Offense looks interesting but obviously a work in progress. The good news is this is by far the best defense we'll face all year. Thought our punter looked good though. It's one game, still a really bad start for DL. That said remember Chip's first game at Boise St.? September is a tough, hopefully we can shake this one off and move on.
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I agree with what you're saying in the sense that if we win the P12 we're in. That's a lot more achievable than going undefeated or even 12-1. I should have worded my statement a little differently in that it really doesn't change our "strategy" rather than "the equation". Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but I just see the $ gap translating to a talent gap that gets wider each year and is reinforced by Power 2 championships. For us it just makes it progressively harder to stay relevant as a member of the P12. Don't' get me wrong, I'm thrilled in the short-term but long-term I feel our situation remains relatively unchanged.
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Yes, great for the P12 champ but I don't see how it changes the equation in the long run. The at-large bids are going to be dominated by the Power 2. I'm figuring the B!G/SEC each put 3 at-large teams in, ergo a 4th place finish in those conferences is better than a second place finish in the P12. Plus our conference champ would have to be in the top 4 to get that first critical first-round bye. This is a huge improvement no doubt, but for us the best chance to stay relevant long term remains B!G membership.
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Ohio State Impeding Further B1G Expansion?
noDucknewby replied to GatOrlando's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Again thanks for the perspective, airspace. Interesting to note that although USC will most certainly be opposed to Oregon's addition, they don't have a say just yet. That just adds to the sense of urgency, and I'm guessing that as you suggest these talks may be a lot further along than they appear. Personally I think it happens and that makes me both sad and excited. There have been some amazing P12/B1G matchups in the Rose Bowl over the years, and granted we'll get more of those in the regular season, but the Rose Bowl will never be the same. That said B1G membership would bring financial stability and a seat at the big table. We're headed for a Power 2 that controls the CFP and anyone outside those conferences is really going to have a difficult time being relevant. -
Ohio State Impeding Further B1G Expansion?
noDucknewby replied to GatOrlando's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
All about the bottom line here IMHO, if the numbers are right I'm guessing their opposition goes away. The conspiracist in me wonders if it is a ploy to get new potential members to accept an unequal share. -
I don't have issues with Frost, taking the UCF job was an ideal career move for him. He wasn't really a serious candidate for the Oregon HC job and there was no guarantee he was going to be retained as OC. IMHO he probably should have acknowledged his mentorship under Chip and Helfie and the opportunities he got while at Oregon. He came in as a relatively unproven receivers coach and left as one of the hottest commodities as a first-time HC, so it's understandable that his comments come across as disrespectful to Duck fans. Whatever, he's moved on and he's still a product of the Oregon coaching tree so his success or failure still reflects his time here.
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I think that's the easy part. Leave the current 7-team divisions as is and add a Pacific Division with 6 teams. Play everybody in your division and 2 or 3 crossover games. Throw in an annual rivalry game and 2-3 non-conference games and it should work great. The hard part to me would be how to decide who plays for the conference championship. Top 2? Top 2 division winners? 4-team playoff?
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Don't see any way to stay relevant and have a shot at the CFP than to join the B1G. I don't like it much, but the writing is on the wall. P12 toast, 4 conferences (for now), Power 2. Slight disagreement with Sir Charles, I don't I think the other sports go away but they're certainly going to have to take some hits to survive.
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What B1G Football Road Game Would You Like?
noDucknewby replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Let's see, we've already played at the Big House, the Shoe, Sparty and Camp Randall in the upper echelon of the B1G. Don't believe we've ever been to Happy Valley? That would be my pick. -
Is Lanning Taking Secrecy TOO FAR?
noDucknewby replied to Charles Fischer's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
OK let's be real we have seen enough projected two-deeps to get a pretty good idea of who's starting on Sept. 3 and so has KS, so I don't think any official announcement really matters much. To me what the offense is going to do schematically is the biggest question and I really don't think that's going to change much regardless of who the starters are. The one advantage we have over Georgia is film (or lack of). It is a small advantage to be sure, but we need a lot of things to fall into place to come away with a win. Besides, this advantage is the most relevant when the team has yet to take a snap and diminishes with each game as the data set gets larger. In short, now's the best time to do this. Of course we want to gobble up all Duck data bits or we probably wouldn't be here in the first place, but I'm fine with waiting until Sept. 3 to see what DL has in store for us, just builds the anticipation. -
Should Fans Feel Compelled to Contribute to NIL?
noDucknewby replied to FishDuck Article's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
I'm "compelled" to donate to the DAF so I can have the privelege of giving them more money for my season tickets. Probably wouldn't otherwise, the tickets, travel, etc. are expensive and my finances are working class. I'm generally averse to this kind of crowd funding because I have doubts that donated money will actually be used as intended. That said, the players deserve to be compensated and have for a long time. Should that compensation fall on the backs of bread-and-butter fans? As long as it's voluntary I have no issue with it. I'd rather see grass roots funding than a few sketchy boosters. -
Interesting read. It seems to me that if they're negotiating specific numbers for their escalation clause, then further expansion is more likely than not. It's possible that Warren is just making sure he's covered for all the potential "what ifs", but that sure seems like a lot of effort for something that may not happen. This guy's an alpha negotiating beast. If further expansion does indeed occur, I can't imagine he won't use his leverage to get new schools at a discounted rate (except ND) so that the per school rate for full members is not impacted as much. Good news/bad news, we're probably on the short list but the P12 is toast.
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You've got to hand it to Warren, the B1G is in fat city for the next TV cycle. For the LA schools, no more night games, hadn't thought about that aspect. Just another reason I doubt UCLA gets pulled back in. What I find interesting is that the B1G contract has built-in flexibility for expansion. Obviously this is geared towards ND (probably not happening), but I can't help but think that Cal/Stanford is looking pretty attractive all of a sudden (or maybe all along for that matter). This would solve the regents hurt feelings and give the B1G the Bay Area as well. Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but I just don't see anything here that bodes well for the Ducks or the Pac.
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Oregon’s Two-Quarterback Solution
noDucknewby replied to FishDuck Article's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Fair point Charles, but live reps even in a dumbed-down offense still have value. But I agree that you have to give the backup QBs meaningful reps by running the regular offense, even if it does in the short term risk some bone-headed mistakes. If there's an injury one of them will be thrown into the fire anyway. -
Oregon’s Two-Quarterback Solution
noDucknewby replied to FishDuck Article's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
The best way to utilize multiple QBs is to keep the pedal to the metal and put inferior teams away early. I know, easier said than done, but MM hardly played in the 4th quarter the year he won the Heisman. Let's get rid of the ugly grind it out, sit on a lead strategy MC used. It always used to drive me crazy when we intentionally conceded momentum to lesser opponents. Sure burn some time off the clock, but don't just run it up the middle every play. -
Mario Cristobal--When the Knives Come Out
noDucknewby replied to FishDuck Article's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Being a mediocre coach is not a character flaw. Agree with others, he just didn't have a Plan B if his power running game wasn't working. Why his game plan for Utah.2 was exactly the same as Utah.1 is beyond me. Breakups are never pretty, but nearly everyone in the workforce explores other options at one time or another. Doesn't mean disloyalty, business is business. Throw in the powerful draw of home and family (not to mention a boat load of money), how many of us would have done differently? MC took over a program in dire straits and left it in much better shape than he inherited. Am I disappointed with blowing our chances at the CFP twice under his tenure? You bet. That said, we're landing on our feet; for me it's just time to move on and I wish him the best at Miami. -
First USA Today Coaches Poll, Ducks Just Miss Top 10
noDucknewby replied to Pennsylvania Duck's topic in Our Beloved Ducks
Notre Dame and USC overrated as usual I see. I would put us in the 10-15 range pre-season, of course I think our ceiling is much higher than that.