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Everything posted by AnotherOD
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Utah Beats USC 43-42! Game Thread
And Utah somehow climbs back into the game? I wouldn't bet them right now down a score, but if you watched USC in Corvallis .................
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Will The Ducks' Run of Dominance Over UCLA Continue?
As a Duck fan, I feel pretty good. Without GameDay, Autzen will be lathered up, with GameDay it will be approaching a boil. Overall, I'd say I think Chip and UCLA approaching the top of the conference this season. I'd be nearly shocked if Oregon shows up and plays at least "solid", it loses at home.
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Cristobal: Square Peg in a Round Hole
We can agree to disagree. Not having your high school OL commits being able to play and desperately regularly rolling the dice on JC kids very well may a definition of good recruiting and player development. It hasn't really been for the 30 or so years I have been following college football fairly closely, but maybe things have changed the last few years and I missed it? I am honestly NOT even totally against it; but, if you aspire to be Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Clemson, even places like Texas, Michigan, Oklahoma, LSU, and even USC, it just really isn't a big part of your plan. It's landing and developing kids, and occasionally being in need and finding the right circumstance to roll the dice on a strong JC prospect. Denis and Logan following MC to Miami isn't a red flag? Maybe or maybe not but the relative largely agreed upon opinion that both were miles away from being able to regularly see the field for the Ducks probably counts for something too. Experiencing player after player you bring into the program who you don't wanna ever play to me seems like a high degree of bad evaluation, and reaching into the JC ranks again and again and again and again is fine for Kansas State, Arizona State, Indiana, Mississippi State, and others. I guess we can agree to disagree about where the last nearly 30 year success plus investment in Oregon football have put Oregon closer to Georgia, Clemson, and Alabama or someone like Kansas State, MSU, or ASU (and which group of schools it needs to follow in it's program building design). I re-read my post and I think I give MC a fair amount of credit for the OL during his time here. I just think it is ** low hanging fruit ** for people who need to come up with such angles and wanna spend 15 minutes researching it to come up with a point that will make them seem ** smart ** - and isn't such a slam dunk argument - but 80% of college football fans will gobble it up as some sort of piece of information they need to know, without actually doing any work themselves, and trusting in the idea a guy in that spot MUST know what he is talking about. I'm not sure if I linked it here on OBD (possibly not) but google and article by Hythloday1 and Klemm - and his research into Klemm's player development and the amount of UR, two, three, and low 4 star kids at UCLA that he turned into guys with meaningful NFL careers during his run there. Not sure if you are familiar with the author, but I believe he says something to the effect of, "a degree of success at that level I've never come across in my research". That isn't to say MC didn't do respectable, just perspective on what others have shown in similar spots can be done. And I must disagree at least up until this point the idea that you expect a large portion of your lower rated kids to ever develop. Yes the "hit rate" on lower rated kids needs to be adjusted for expectations, but I just can't see how it can be that low. You gonna bring in a dozen kids with the hopes 1-2 might flash? I would hope it is more than one maybe two. Georgia, tOSU, Clemson, and even places like Michigan, LSU, Oklahoma, and Texas I doubt recruit that way. Should Oregon have such a lower standard? Maybe that is a topic for a different time?
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What is the Issue With Ty Thompson?
I think the "free play" was at about 8:33 in the 4th. The dangerous "almost pick" to the RB was at about 6:55 (pass to Duck RB James out of the backfield that UA DL #1 Harris almost gets).
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What is the Issue With Ty Thompson?
Not that I watch a lot of recruiting video (so take this all with a grain of sand); but, recall watching some of TT's and the sort of odd thing is that Mario and Moorhead likely would have little idea or success trying to play to Ty's strengths. Playing under Kenny Dillingham (and the adjustments KD likely would make to fit TT's strengths) in my mind makes at least a little more sense. I recall there being some interest at the time in Jackson-Powers Corner Canyon HS teammate QB Jackson Dart; but, Oregon seemed 110% behind one QB and it being TT. I remember even (foolishly) thinking, hmmm, maybe this move was a sign MC and JM were gonna take the reins off and move away from his pedestrian offense and maybe break out some more aggressive vertical passing concepts? If not, Dart might seem a better "fit" for whatever that mess MC and JM had cobbled together (and not that Dart didn't throw the ball well either). In h.s., from what I saw, TT was sort of a textbook "gunslinger", appeared to take 100% of snaps from the shotgun and throw 35-40 passes a game, a bunch of them downfield throws (and a good % of just bombs). He ran a bit, but mostly because, at 6-4 and a solid 200 pounds, in many highlights he looked like one of the bigger, more powerful kids on the field (even counting some of the linemen). He sat back and threw darts all over the field (and probably yes usually in a one read and throw situation). They moved him around a bit, but mostly to throw. At least in the clips I viewed, not exactly really the "dual threat" sort of thing MC and JM might be more after (and in his time at Oregon, Ty has appeared to never have an RPO where he wanted to choose run, or any real desire to take off with his feet on a pass play, or any real appearance enthusiasm for any QB designed run). Not that I want to see TT leave (and this is just an impression) but if somebody like Leach could drill in those air raid concepts, I could see TT really loving an offense where he took a shotgun snap and was able to throw 50 passes a game Garner Minshew style.
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Jahlil Florence Next Lockdown?
(Somebody with more knowledge might offer an opinion) but UA went after JF at least twice in the 3rd with down field shots on the sidelines with Singer, one a catch and one a miss (about 8:23 and again at 3:10). I thought JF played both well, Singer appears to have a sideline method while running - as the ball is in the air - to literally take his off arm and hold the DB about 2 feet away with an "arm bar". In one instance the ref either behind the play or trailing it threw a PI flag, completely missing the WR creating both contact and space for the catch with his outside arm. Sort of sneaky good by the WR if you can get away with it (which appears regularly with Pac-12 refs). It is hard for a DB not to get a bit "handsy" when the WR is trying to hold you two feet apart. Interested to see if anyone else saw it the same way.
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Cristobal: Square Peg in a Round Hole
The outside media certain love the "Mario Cristobal OL Guru" angle. I suppose we could start an over/under on how many more Duck broadcasts are going to pass before we have a complete game without it being referenced at least once? As to the point about credit, my thought would be: a bit of "yes" and a bit of "well maybe not quite so much". First thought is the OL really projected to be pretty good this season. It isn't often a power five program gets to open a season with 3 players in their sixth year of college football, one in his fifth, and one in his forth. All essentially returning starters (at the very least 5 of the top 6), with a lot of snaps under their belts. As to building an OL, there is a list of MC OL recruits who never sniffed a meaningful snap at Oregon. Happens everywhere but arguably the OL recruiting success "hit rate" was pretty average. Sewell was a grand slam commit, but there doesn't seem to be much debate he walked into his first year a guy ready to go. I believe Forsyth and Walk were inherited by MC, though certainly they developed under his watch. Bass and Aumavae-Laulu were highly rated JC OL, who also were chosen and developed under MC, which is solid feather in the cap, though dipping regularly into the JC ranks to fill holes and put together competent position groups in college football generally isn't held out as a preferred player developmental strategy (more finding yourself in trouble and rolling the dice and having the fortunate of a series of good rolls). Steven Jones was a top 250 kid and has been solid, Jaramillo has contributed, Laloula may still, and Harper probably MC's biggest developmental surprise; but, with those degrees of successes are names like: Randazzo, J. Johnson, Tauanu'u, Sagapolu, Denis, Jeffers, Smith, and Suamataia. Finally, to what degree has the OL play this season been dramatically improved by Klemm and the new Duck staff? Prior to this year, I've seen reasonable arguments OL play while generally solid, often was still a mixed bag? If one looks at Klemm's success with developing OL during his last college stay at UCLA, it compares favorably to the "OL Guru". Not to say there won't be bumps along the way but if Klemm sticks around I am not expecting a drop off without MC.
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GameDay Thread versus Arizona: Join Us!
Last time I saw the rule it still said something to the effect of "taking aim with the purpose of attacking and making forceable contact beyond what is necessary for a legal block or tackle" - presumably but not necessarily with the crown of the helmet - of which lowering the head is often an indication; or, something like that. Offensive players instinctively lower their heads anticipating contact all the time, as I see it, sometimes a defensive player will too; and, there will be contact with helmets. Not all helmet contact with a tackle appears to me to be lowering the head to attack with the intent to make more than a legal tackle. I saw a bang-bang sort of play where the receiver could not just stop and chill and wait to see if the pass was caught before he decided to tackle or not - because that's a huge advantage for the offense. Rules today already seem to favor the offense where playing defense is tough enough. Didn't really like the call.
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GameDay Thread versus Arizona: Join Us!
They said the call came not on the field but from the Pac-12 office. Anyone think that puts a lot of pressure on a ref to agree with his bosses calling him and telling him "Hey we think you screwed up so we are giving you a chance to (agree with us) and fix it?" Maybe not too crazy about faceless guys in an office 1,000s of miles away buzzing in an making calls. It introduces the potential for conflicts of interest - that may not even be there - but could definitely look as such.
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AP & Coaches Polls...Look at the Comparison
A bit crazy to think if Oregon opens with San Jose State, Colorado State, UNLV, or something similar, instead of Georgia, it probably sits at #4 and controls it's own destiny. Still rooting for some chaos (it is just is hard to see anyone taking out tOSU - not seeing a Michigan or Penn State upset - or a road opponent that might beat Clemson - as they never lose at home and look to be in good shape against whoever pulls out the Costal side). Been totally rooting against USC with extra enthusiasm so far this year but it probably helps for them to be an undefeated and highly ranked Pac-12 Championship opponent. A win there probably would be plenty against any other one loss opponents not named Alabama or Georgia. I know many find it strange but a playoff appearance, even if it doesn't go well THIS year, is going to be much > even winning a Rose Bowl after finishing the season as Pac-12 Champion but just outside the playoff. Playoff is just where it is at in college football these days. I know many will feel winning the Rose Bowl is good for this year and would be a springboard for many future playoff appearances, but I think you jump on that shot anytime it comes around as you just never know what might happen in the future. Crazy talk as Oregon even winning out I am sure wouldn't get a lot of bets nationally, but as fans we gotta keep dreaming.
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Stanford vs Ducks: Oregon Favored, But Cardinal Known for Duck Upsets
Just watching parts of two games, this isn't the Stanford of old. Even compared to last year, I'd say Stanford has dropped another tier this season to this point. I understand the concern, but I absolutely would be more concerned if say Arizona was coming to town. Colorado seems to be imploding and I don't know you automatically take Stanford over them right now (might depend on the points).
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Stanford vs Ducks: Oregon Favored, But Cardinal Known for Duck Upsets
I absolutely understand "Stanford angst" but I watched a bit of Stanford against USC and UW and I must say they appear to be far away from the teams that have given the Ducks trouble, and yes even compared to the meltdown last year where - Stanford pulled out a win. Chaos does happen but I'd say we would need to see a world where the college football world is absolutely turns upside down to see a close game. Stanford is just at a point one week turnarounds are just a massive deal.
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Wazoo Defense Showed Speed
Yes. Oregon hasn't had a ton of trouble to this point in the red zone heading into WSU. It somewhat natural to this point to suggest the OC is seeing things and making great calls all the time. Another explanation is he has some things he likes in those spots and to this point has largely "guessed correctly". My thought is WSU saw that and was prepared early in the game. 98% confidence first time play caller KD will catch on and be way better next time. He already did it with WSU loading the box and a flip to the TE later in the game. Totally owning the WSU smashes in the 1st half and making adjustments and generating a grand slam play call. It is natural to have confidence in what has succeed in prior spots. Adjustments and making plays is a sign of a real dude in that spot. KD deserves a credit!
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Wazoo Defense Showed Speed
Obviously there are exceptions, but my impression was whenever possible Mario looked for bigger athletes, especially in the back 60% of a recruiting class - arguably the guys looked at a bit more to be developed a bit more. DL seems to be looking a bit more for different traits for different positions. Long, lean, twitchy CBs, tall WRs, beefy DTs, maybe less emphasis on beef and more on feet on the OL (though this is a tough year for OL I understand so maybe not a year to draw too many conclusions), bigger yet still explosive RBs, and speedy athletic types as ends and LBs. Guys like Bassa, Conerly, Devon Jackson, Harrison Taggart, Florence and Tucker, Jordan James, Khamari Terrell, Kyler Kasper, Justice Lowe, Jurrion Dickey, Caleb Presley, Ashton Cozart, A'mauri Washington, Donte Dowdell (and a whole bunch of other guys!), seem to me to possibly suggest a subtle shift in some recruiting areas. Through most of the Chip/MH era, Oregon usually had enough guys to produce nearly two pretty impressive 4 x 100 teams (based on actual reported track or timed camp numbers); and, another handful of guys who also had very solid numbers (some names that pop to mind: LaMichael James, Dior Mathis, DAT, Tacoi Sumler, Byron Marshall, Thomas Tyner, Devon Allen, Tony Brooks-James, Charles Nelson, Taj Griffin, Kirk Merritt). Now, I don't know if it was completely accurate but (before the new group of recruits and transfers arrived) I read in more than one place 6-4 and 270 pound DJ Johnson was among the fasted guys on the squad. Certainly impressive if even partly true (as one would think at least a couple guys like Franklin and Hutson could challenge); but, I think in the coming years the staff is going to emphasize that aspect a bit more than the previous group.
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The FUSKIES Look Surprisingly Good
Penix looks healthy and really appears comfortable in that offense. If he stays healthy, as much as I don't like to say it, I think the Huskies are going to be hanging around all season.
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Running Back by Committee: Who Looks Best?
Looks like I'm the first one to sort of see it like the coaches so far. Irving appears to have that good initial burst (1-4 yards). He gets to holes and through holes quickly. I think the pass catching will improve (but I only see 8 catches last year at Minnesota so it will be something I'm sure people will be watching). Whittington similarly accelerates well and flashes some power, and seems to be the most comfortable pushing through piles and traffic. Dollars appears to be returning to form nicely from injury and had shown a nice playmaking ability. It won't surprise me if his role increases if he continues to be as productive. Cardwell, while not as big, reminds me a bit of Blount (or maybe Royce to a lesser extent) in that maybe it takes a few steps for his burst to arrive ( not meant as a put down as both were plenty successful). He certainly shows good vision and picking up his blocking. 6.84 ypc and 8 of his 61 carries going for 20+ last year certainly flashes some big play capability.
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The Georgia / Oregon Conundrum.
Sort of similar to Kentucky today catching Florida coming off their big Utah win last weekend, should be an advantage to Oregon at home catching BYU off a big, emotional double OT win tonight.
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Watching the UCF/Louisville Game...
From ESPN: UCF Drive Chart (yesterday) 10 plays 80 yards TD (3:30) 4 plays 24 yards PUNT (1:10) 8 plays 77 yards TD (2:43) 6 plays 14 yards PUNT (2:43) 8 plays 60 yards MISS FG (2:11) 3 plays 4 yards PUNT (2:26) 3 plays 1 yard PUNT (1:43) 5 plays 10 yards PUNT (2:20) 3 plays -3 yards PUNT (2:09) 4 plays 2 yards PUNT (2:46) 5 plays 20 yards PUNT (1:32) 9 plays 42 yards INT (2:49) 5 plays 20 yards DOWNS (0:32) One of the strangest box scores I've seen in a while - UCF didn't even lose its starting QB (Rhys Plumlee) that I can see. Not seeing the game, it worked, and then it didn't? 8 punts, an INT and a turnover on downs? When I see UCF it's hard to think anything beyond Gus Malzahn.
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Good News, Duck Fans: We’re Going to the Rose Bowl
College football has walked itself to this point; but, they at least seem to be doing something about it with the expanded playoff in the works. The Duck's goal needs to be win the Pac-12 and hope for a lot of carnage amongst the top 10. (Non playoff) New Year's six games are going the way of all the other bowls, mostly meaningless. Yes, even the Rose Bowl. Made for TV live sports events they want to sell to TV? Of course networks still try to hype it. Even try to sell tradition and the game matters maters. It isn't fooling too many college football fans anymore. It's either the playoffs - or a glorified scrimmage between teams who didn't get it done - in a random bowl. Telling fans it's a big deal isn't working anymore. Rose Bowl: Oregon versus Michigan? Oregon versus Penn State? From the collective world of college football it will be zzzzzzzzzs and mostly all but devoted fans and hardcore college football types will care. Top players likely sit. The trend with lower bowls is working it's way up. It's playoffs or bust, but at least we may have 12 teams, if not 16 teams (plus contenders), still playing meaningful games late in the year. Plus ALL the tourney games will not be exhibitions but will matter. Instead of 3 playoff games that matter we will see between 11 and 15 (depending on structure). Only downside is too many blow-outs. Don't get me wrong, I wish there was some great consolation prize for non play-off teams for football. It just hasn't materialized, and much like NCAA basketball tournament there is a reason there is no consolation set of events that generates much interest. Non-playoff New Year's bowls hung around as somewhat meaningful for a while based on long histories, but were destined to fall to the waste side. Most likely a few will be rolled into playoff sites.
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Clarification -Flowe's Hit
I think Flower played in a handful of special teams snaps as a freshman in one game. He played one game his next year. Which means he has basically had two games since high school. I don't think he had a particularly good game either, but when you look at the stats, he still had 10 tackles and the Duck's only TFL. If it takes him two or three games to get it worked out, I'd say that's progressing pretty well.
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We Have One Data Point!
It is a positive thought. Oregon does play in the Pac-12 and there is a lot of: WSU, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Cal, Colorado, Washington, OSU, so if Oregon goes 9-4 or 8-5 a lot of people are gonna be happy and say "coaching change" and "rebuilding year". Given the huge number of key guys likely leaving, 2023 most likely another 9-4 or 8-5 year and a lot of people are gonna be happy and say "still coaching change" and "rebuilding year", "five years to grow the bamboo". And that is fine. I just wonder if we are seeing signs of a program which spent a lot of time and resources getting to where to where it is at, losing ground? Both major roster composition stats have Oregon's roster between #7 and #9 nationally in talent level, and Oregon picked a new $5 million dollar coach and hired a lot of young coaches with some buzz. Oregon has spent maybe 3 decades now getting to the point it can make a legitimate argument most years it is somewhere between maybe 6 and 14 national program each year. The Utah, Utah, Oklahoma, and now Georgia games are NOT showing a program competing at this level right now. They aren't just losing. In those 4 games, while Oregon arguably was even in those games, the first half, Oregon has been outscored: 109 - 6 That's Vanderbilt numbers, that's Arizona numbers, that's Rice numbers, that's Rutgers territory. And that's fine. People will disagree about whether it is a blip or something more. I will say with mega conferences arriving (Oregon appearing to be on the outside right now), the Pac-12 continuing to decline, NIL, portal, huge disadvantages with TV money, continuing to be outside a major recruiting hotbeds, along with everything else... That we might not be seeing Oregon looking like it can AT LEAST compete - like a top 10 type program it has spent 30 years building toward - may be a cause for concern amongst those of us (who for whatever reason) care about such things? Not trying to be completely all "doom and gloom". I'd be happy to field positives.
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We Have One Data Point!
It's a positive thought. I don't want to speak for my fellow Duck fans but most of us aren't just seeing the program not really be able to compete against just Georgia. It's getting rolled by Utah, getting pounded by Utah two weeks later, getting handled easily (by a just as depleted) Oklahoma team, then looking like an FCS program against Utah. Losses? Ok, not good but ok. Not being able to meaningfully even stay in any of those game and compete? Something else.
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From a Long, Long, Time Duck...
I understand trying to find a nice spot to break in a young QB but JB is starting his third year in the program and TT had his break in with Stony Brook last year. That game was OVER. Georgia didn't at all appear to be out for blood, the second half for them looked a lot like they were playing a second Spring game. If you are that scared of throwing a young guy in at that point and somehow destroying some confidence (or whatnot), they likely aren't it.
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Suddenly, the Transfer Dilemma Rears Again
The big question about the portal for these guys is what exactly do they want to accomplish? Nix has said he plans to stay one season. If true, Oregon once again has a wide open QB spot. If you are a young QB still with the dream of being a power 5 starting QB, and you make a list of teams with an open QB battle, Oregon likely is going to be at or near the top of the list. Most places will have a returning guy, those that don't usually have a logical favored heir apparent, most of those don't still have 3 guys competing who were all rated highly. If you are a QB and happy here, Oregon is going to be about as good a P5 opportunity as any.
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Oregon Makes Official Decision On Quarterback Bo Nix: Fans React
I don't know, he also could be thinking I could come in and start and be off to the NFL in 3 seasons? As well, recruits rarely react to one game. I think Notre Dame was his #2? While they certainly looked much better against tOSU (scoring 10), I think tOSU held them to 253 yards of total offense and punted on their last 6 possessions (and their QB only completed 10 passes on the day). I guess Michigan was in there too? Harbaugh's not really known for throwing it around.