AnotherOD

It may be wrong (won't be the first time); but, if healthy (here on March 1st, 2021), I'm gonna suggest AB is going to surprise some people. Maybe not Mariota or Herbert surprise some people, but exceed the (limited) expectations (many) seem to be placing upon him. Gonna' be interesting...

It does seem like MC is still at a stage where he wants to have his fingerprints on most everything, rather than be more of a CEO type coach. I'd agree MC seems well suited as a CEO (and OL co-coach if he wishes); but, I'm not really seeing any special indication he is a huge "plus influence" as either essentially a co-OC or co-DC. The whole "SEC style football" thing was an ok narrative to turn the page on the past, but it doesn't appear to describe much of what we seeing (other than maybe an unnecessary - and possibly limiting - risk adversion streak permanating the staff). And this is at a time when those programs who actually were decent at the whole "SEC style thing" have been abandoning it (because it was leaving them further behind). Most everybody wants to be physical, play fast and fundamental, and beat people up, talking about it endlessly doesn't seem to do much to make it happen. Oregon didn't appear to be especially tough or physical in 2020. Not bad, just no different than 90% of college football. When Oregon was best in 2020, it was when it's athletes were allowed to make plays in space and it played fast (and a bit reckless). With another 1-2 recruiting classes, on paper Oregon might enter into the very top tier of the "blue chip" ratio, conceivably just under the big 3 of Alabama, tOSU, and Georgia, and right in there (if not even slightly ahead) of the likes of Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, and others. Let JM fully bring in what will be a modern cutting edge college offense and let TDR do what he does (install a fundamentally sound and aggressive defense) with great talent. Win with that talent, effort, and execution (rather than trying to "fit" some older ideas/philosophy onto today's game - creating limits in the process).

I think he could still be there in 2023 when a (should be loaded) Ducks team is scheduled to travel to Lubbock. Crazy.

Once again, surprised so many negative views on Anthony Brown after 23 passes. Not only 23 passes, but 23 passes - after not playing football in over a year (leg injury) - in a new system after not playing a snap all season. That then finally being thrown into the middle of a close Pac-12 Championship game - then into the middle of the Fiesta Bowl mess. No Portland State, Wyoming, or Fresno State to bump off the rust (not even some WSU or OSU). Given that, 15-23 (65%) for 164 with 2-0 TD/INT and 40 more rushing yards with 2 more TDs seems pretty good...

For the number 882 national recruit, a home run. Didn't have a great senior year, but as mentioned, an FWAA Freshman AA, started 37 of 38 games as a sophomore and junior playing over 1,000 snaps, receiving all Pac-12 HM honors both years. Oregon gave up 179 yards rushing in 2015 and 247 yards rushing in 2016 and then JS arrived in the middle and the next three seasons were: 128, 147, and 110. Personally feel pretty good about Popo and Williams being ready to step in for 2021, but I don't know if there were a lot of game ready options at that spot over the last 3-4 seasons if not for JS? At probably under 6-1, I don't know if he ever has been a slam dunk NFL prospect (despite taking a look at the draft prior to last season). Big guys who gobble up space still at a premium; but, I don't know if he ever has been seen as a impact guy on passing downs (even in high school). By all accounts he has worked on it, just hasn't seemed to translate.

I understand young QBs want to play, but Jay Butterfield just got here. I see suggestions one foot might be out the door (but with the "COVID do-over") JB is essentially going to be a true freshman again, the same as Ty Thompson. JB was 247's #5 PRO QB in 2020 and TT was #247's #4 PRO QB in 2021, I imagine if he went to any top 25 or better type program, he knew there was going to be some competition, why not hang around a bit and see how things shake out? (I guess the suggestion is TT is going to go all Slovis and lock the thing down as a true, but, that is far from determined). My guess is JB spends most of 2021 as #2 QB and competes for 2022. If TT wins, JB waits again as #2 in 2022, and if p.t. still looks unlikely, he graduates in 3 years and transfers with 3 years still to play with no penalty (of course that could all be wrong). I see a lot of optimism for 2022, but I could see a possible set of circumstances where the Ducks again face essentially 5 new starters on the OL along with KT leaving early for 2022. Georgia in Atlanta too. That's a lot for a NC run. 2023 looks more like it to me (Portland State, Texas Tech, Hawaii and 5 conference home games listed) with TT/JB hitting his QB stride, that young 2020 and 2021 OL group with more time under their belts, and maybe even a pair of guys like JTT and Cyrus Moss leading the way up front (ok that's a huge "what if" but that's kinda how you get there, no?).

Since Ashford enrolled and is playing baseball, I think he can't be drafted back into baseball until he is 21 or a junior? Of course he could leave to play elsewhere in both sports, but if baseball is going well, I could see him less likely to chase QB playing time elsewhere (of course that could be wrong).

In today's college football, QBs are gonna leave. The better the prospect, the faster the trigger it seems. While all different situations, Oregon is hardly unique (some that immediately pop to mind: JT Daniels, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, even the UW might have liked to keep Jake Haener around a bit longer). Even the likes of Alabama, tOSU, and Georgia haven't been able to keep everyone happy. It probably was NOT the best plan to invite a replay of a QB 1A and a QB 1B for the offense into 2021. Maybe the "two QB system" made some sense in 2020 and maybe it didn't? However, I'd say it absolutely makes NO sense to possibly run a repeat in 2021. There doesn't appear to be the same need for "QB insurance" in 2021 as in 2020 that brought in a grad transfer in the first place, and there now appears to be a natural QB progressions set in place from 2021 through 2024 (with several Brown/Thompson/Butterfield/Ashford permutations). The QB room looks ordered - and areas for competition established over a reasonably expected time frame. It also makes for a slightly more appealing situation for one QB commit in 2022. Obviously, ever program would love to have about six 5 and 4 star QBs where no one worries if they play, and everyone is happy to stick around to the end to just compete, with no internal staff/locker room/fan disharmony, but that seems increasingly unrealistic.

Different programs, different teams, different players, different coaches, different schemes. If one wants to make as close a direct comparison from basic statistics, it would probably be TS in 7 games as a sophomore and AB in 6 games as a junior: Shough: 106-167 (63%) for 1559 at 9.3 Y/A with 13/6 TD/INT for 160 pass rating. 271 rush yards at 4.1 ypc and 2 TDs Brown: 81-137 (59%) for 1250 at 9.1 Y/A with 9/2 TD/INT for 155 pass rating. 128 rush yards at 3.9 ypc and 2 TDs That's probably the best simple stats apples-to-apples comparison - beyond direct eyeball opinion on USC and Iowa State in 2020 (in that comparison, TS threw one INT every 27 passes, AB one INT every 68 passes). Accounting for different offensive schemes (if not just beyond one team regularly throwing the ball down field more than the other) and it appears at least a push; or, at the very least not too strong a case the numbers show AB is some how a career low ceiling guy, significantly different than TS. One was a RS sophomore and the other a RS junior, but it's not like there aren't numerous examples of 3 year starters whose worst statistical year out of the 3 was as a junior (so statistical improvement cannot just be assumed, only possible).

I guess I just don't understand the general lack of enthusiasm for AB. Do people realize to this point he has thrown 23 passes as a Duck (at 63%)? That isn't even a single game. That and 7 rushes at 5.7 yards per carry and 2 TDs. It wasn't even against South Dakota, Nicholls State, or Wyoming at home, but USC in the Pac-12 Championship game and against a top 10 Iowa State team in the Fiesta Bowl. Games he didn't even start or get to run the ones by himself as the starter. Is it because he overthrew a guy in the Fiesta Bowl and missed a TD? Well, it seems like we all watched Herbert make 2-4 head scratchers a game pretty much all four seasons? He turned out ok. Maybe AB can be allowed at least 3-4 such passes before we jump all over him? It isn't like he hadn't thrown a nice ball for a touchdown THE VERY PREVIOUS PLAY, called back for a hold. He later fumbled? Well, it was a very close play, and an obvious effort play (all several replays could confirm was it was very close, and you couldn't see anything to clearly change the original call. Different original call and the Ducks quite possibly keep the ball). Is it Boston College? Well, BC in terms of recent results and talent level (based on recruiting) has a lot more in common with teams like Colorado, Oregon State, Arizona, or Cal than anyone else in the Pac-12. He redshirted, started as a rFR, and battled through two major leg injuries. He played (over the relevant time frame) in a tradition run oriented, play action (pocket passing), pro style offense, with a future NFL back being the focus of the offense. His stats were pretty in-line with a developmental rated high school prospect, playing in an old school offense, that went 57-69 from 2010-2019 with a few Pinstripe and Quick Lane bowl type appearances, on teams with recruiting ratings somewhere between 55-65 nationally. He didn't come in and win the job at Oregon, but with COVID cancelling the season, then a rush to throw it all together, and an arguably pretty strong momentum generally in favor of TS, one wonders if the competition ever really got going - beyond AB coming back off injury and shaking off rust in the run up. JM was a couple months on staff when AB was brought in. Probably some evidence JM felt pretty good about the 4 years he saw on tape...

I don't think the (relatively straightforward) grading system is necessarily that hard to do, or necessarily introduces a ton of bias over the course of 100s of snaps (unless of course somehow it is intentional). I understand people may disagree. Their website does provide detail on exactly how they are doing it, for each position: PFF Player Grades Quarterback Play The most effective quarterback evaluation out there

Simple stats will always exist in sports (with limitations long recognized). Technology plus the growth in popularity of the sport has produced a whole wealth of "advanced metrics" which have become very popular (at least among those who wish to dive in). PFF, while still not perfect, has gone a long way to tie accurate numbers to the "eyeball test". Simple described as evaluating between -2 and 2 in 0.5 increments a single player's role in the success or failure of a play (given their role in the play). Sitting in the pocket and dropping a pass into a tight window to a WR streaking 30 yards downfield actually produces a better number than a 5 yard flip to a TE who rumbles those same 30 yards. Tradition stats capture each 30 yards play as identical, but "eyeballs" tell us one is "elite" while the other is basically "completing a lay-up". All QBs will have "should have been picked" passes dropped by the defense. Traditional stats will reflect having 1 or 6 of those per game as basically the same, PFF captures the difference. Grading QB success or failure per play, rather than just totaling up raw results, allows for accurately compiling a measure/grade of things such as accuracy to all levels of the field, completions under pressure, ability to create outside the pocket, decision making, sacks taken, turnover worthy plays, ability to make difficult throws, and so on, against one's contemporaries. PFF graded TS as 11th out of the 12 starting Pac-12 QBs in their 2020 Pac-12 wrap up. Essentially matching more of what [many] of us have argued seeing on the field. I'd argue as well creating a number accurately reflecting the amount of offense that was "left on the table" due to the plays being available - only not often enough made - due to low rated QB execution. Doesn't mean it can't get better, only what did happen in 2020.

Until somebody breaks through (LSU notwithstanding), it probably is hard to argue against just recycling the same teams at the top of college football - as absolutely unappealing (to many) as that might be. Odds must be pretty good taking Alabama, Clemson, and tOSU over the rest of the college football field in 2021? What has it been the last 7 years? 20 Alabama 19 LSU 18 Clemson 17 Alabama 16 Clemson 15 Alabama 14 Ohio State It wasn't even crazy long ago where we saw a 10 year run without a single repeat champion, and all P5 conferences with at least one. 04 USC 03 LSU 02 Ohio State 01 Miami 00 Oklahoma 99 Florida State 98 Tennessee 97 Michigan 96 Florida 95 Nebraska Although still "household names" at the top of college football recently, even a Georgia or Oklahoma breakthrough (in 2021) would be encouraging for the sport.

It does look like a pretty simple formula to possibly maximize views to a national audience?: 1. Predicted Best SEC Team 2. Predicted Best ACC Team 3. Predicted Best Big 10 Team 4. Predicted Best Big 12 Team 5. Predicted Best Pac-12 Team 6. Predicted Second Best SEC Team 7. Predicted Second Best Big 12 Team 8. Predicted Second Best ACC Team 9. Predicted Second Best Big 10 Team I guess the only "upset" would be not having the Second Best Predicted Pac-12 Team (presumably USC) at number 10 and instead having NC (some intern must have screwed that one up). I would guess the "usual" probably would generate less views nationally - and will wait until closer to the season? 1. Best SEC Team 2. Best ACC Team 3. Best Big 10 Team 4. Second Best SEC Team 5. Best Big 12 Team 6. Third Best SEC Team 7. Notre Dame 8. Second Best ACC Team 9. Second Best Big 10 Team 10. Fourth Best SEC Team Ok maybe a bit cynical. It actually will be interesting to see Alabama, Clemson, and tOSU all (basically) breaking in a new starting QBs. All have highly rated next guys, but given how college football sometimes goes, there might be some vulnerability to each in the early part of the season: Alabama has Miami and @Florida in its first 3, tOSU opens up @Minnesota then Oregon, and Clemson has Georgia in Charlotte NC in their opener.

I'm far from wanting to get overly wrapped up on TOP; but, the top 25 teams in TOP were 145-70 and the bottom 25 teams in TOP were 71-134. So, it's suggestive of something. I guess my point was something along the lines, if you are gonna play "field position, conservative, smash mouth" football, you probably aren't succeeding regularly if your opponents are out TOP you 34-26 and running 15+ more plays per game than you are.

I'd have to agree with Charles. If one wanted to argue Oregon's reputation of "coaching up" players has taken a bit of a hit the last 3 seasons, I'd at least listen; but, under Bellotti and Chip (and even Helfrich), I'd suggests it is hard to support.

I've been critical as well, but if you look at yards per play according to Sports ReferenceCFStats: 2. Alabama: 7.8 7. Ohio State: 7.3 13. Clemson: 6.7 34. ND: 6.2 12. Oregon: 6.8 That's with a hurt starting RB and a QB sliding into the tank (5.4 yards per play last 3 games according to Team rankings.com). So, some signs of life? It seemed to be: quick drive for a score, 3 and out, or a turnover, all year. "Bend but don't break" rarely got itself off the field. TOP was #119 out of #127. Few love TOP; but, the bottom 20 teams in TOP had two teams with (barely) winning records (Oregon and Central Florida), one 6-4 and one 4-3. I'd be all in for a shift to a new, more interesting and aggressive offensive approach (and hand the keys over to JM), but from what we have seen, that just appears somewhat unlikely. If MC loosens it up just a bit, the team just needs to be BETTER at the 50% of the offense MC is likely gonna do. That and get off the field more on defense, not turn the ball over, and get better QB play. I imagine that will be the emphasis, rather than any kind of overhaul. If you are gonna' wanna play like Wisconsin (#1 TOP), Utah (#16 TOP), or Stanford (#23 TOP), you better figure out how to actually do, what you are trying to do.

Looking back, I'm honestly not sure what to make of the offense in 2020. It seems like it couldn't stay on the field and the defense couldn't get off the field. It seemed like the offense would either score pretty quickly, go 3 and out, or turn the ball over. 61 offensive snaps per game in this age of college football is pretty low. I guess one could argue it was "smash mouth, field position, ball control" football, but our opponents averaged 76 snaps. In the final five games, Oregon gave up something like 17 drives of 10 or more plays, and only had like 5 such drives themselves. In the old favorite, time-of-possession stat, Oregon ranked #118 out of #127 teams listed. For reference, the 9 teams that finished lower than Oregon in TOP finished a combined 15-45 (all with losing records). Teams that fit the way MC has expressed he appears to want to play like? Maybe Wisconsin? Stanford? UW? They finished #1, #27, and #26 in TOP. I think I mentioned in another thread, it possibly hasn't just been the philosophy of the offense, it's perhaps just as much, that the team has been relatively poor at it. It might work, if the team gets a whole lot better at it. It might be much easier actually just to embrace something a little different (that is, based on the results so far, if the offense is to improve, it just might be much easier to become something Penn State 2016-2017-like than to continue to try to become something Wisconsin-like).

I would tend to agree, only trying to take off my "duck colored glasses" and look at it from an outsiders perspective. QB, schedule, and, well, losing to OSU, Cal, and a dud of a bowl effort ... I guess I could see someone making the argument. Not agreeing, just throwing it out there. Of the three points, the schedule would seem the strongest (if FBSchedules has it right, the Duck schedule isn't especially favorable).

Not to jump into the "hot take" category, I'd pick Oregon too, but, I could see an argument. Regardless of future trajectory, Washington should be decent next year, solid on defense, safe on offense. As for Oregon, I could see the argument, "until you have a QB, you don't have a QB". A QB at least that's going to lead the team through a 12 game schedule. From the outside, I could see the argument depending on a freshman QB is a lower percentage choice, and on paper it is set up for another Brown/Shough dance. Also, at least according to FBSchedules, Washington has a more favorable 5 game home schedule, with a number of their tougher games at home (Oregon, ASU, UCLA, Cal who they recently have struggled with). They also miss USC and Utah. Oregon has the 4 home game schedule and appears to have more difficult road games (at Utah, at UW, at Stanford, at UCLA). They do miss USC and ASU though.

I don't know. 247 at the bottom of the year-by-year commit page, has a top 25 all-time recruiting rating (since 1999): Everyone has their busts, but Oregon has done pretty well by their best commits. For comparison, USC has done pretty well, but some major flops, UW/UCLA top 25 is pretty hit-or-miss. Stanford, pretty well. Very recently, Oregon has done right by KT and Sewell (both look to be in place for a wonderful career and about $100 million dollars). Among the 25 highest rated commits since 1999, based on careers versus expectations, excluding guys who it is too early to evaluate, an eyeball look at it shows "success versus bust" rates of (roughly): Stanford: 71% Oregon: 67% USC: 58% UCLA: 36% UW: 32% Its subjective but applying a pretty loose standard: expectations based on rankings versus career.

Everyone looks good in a highlight tape but boy do TooToo's look good as both a true freshman and sophomore (against good competition). Just a play diagnosing, in the box, QB pressuring, space eating, run stuffing machine. Dye has great highlights too, some in the box but a lot of moving and play making in space. A Duck great. HTT is just a killer, vacuum cleaner, and impact guy in and around the LOS. Thinking back over the last 25 years as a Duck fan, not a lot to compare him to? Maybe a bit of Alonso, a bit of Simon, a bit of Mitchell, a bit of Ernest Jones? When he hit the portal, everyone at the top of college wanted him and it makes sense. One of the announcers suggests, "Shot out of a cannon". Linked his true freshman year highlights earlier, here is 2020.

I would agree that there probably isn't a ton of difference between maybe 3-8 in the final rankings. I tend to look at recruiting a bit less on absolute numbers and a bit more just on the general perception of what the staff's top targets appear to have been, and what percentage were landed. I don't really have a way to rate that, so depend upon a service like 247 or Rivals, to determine that for me. A secondary goal would be filling gaps, meeting needs, and managing the roster; but, to this point, the staff seems to be doing that pretty well (for example, it doesn't have 40 WR/DB types and no OL). Getting a high percentage of the top guys - who appears there was a good shot with - is IMO success. First one to throw out crazy, random grades? I probably don't follow it closely enough to do this, but just for fun: QB: A It appears TT was the top choice and the goal was one QB this cycle. RB: A Not a lot of RB offers this year by the Ducks. Offers are generally reported by kids - and its sometimes debatable which ones are immediately convertable and which ones conditional. I'd guess only about 6 offers were the former, and 3 were top national flyer offers (Shipley, Pryor, Edwards) that would have been automatic takes (regardless of the depth chart). After those, the Ducks got 2 of 3. It looks like RB wasn't a heavy priority, and will be next cycle (when the West region appears more loaded). WR: A- It was always likely going to be Franklin or Egbuka at the top. The Hudson-Ware decommit is notable (but its maybe interesting it doesn't appear the staff used that spot to go after another WR). Xavier Worthy sticking with Michigan probably goes as a notable "miss". TE: A Mataveo and Ferguson were top targets and 2-2. OL: A Foster at OG might go as a "miss". I'm not sure if Miller and Simmons were an "either/or", but landed one. Suamataiai, Walden, and Light appear to be 3 very top targets and the four together represent an elite group. DL/Edge: C Any season where you have 2 of the top 5 players nationally as west coast edge prospects considering Oregon, its hard to consider it a high grade if you go 0-2 (if JTT goes elsewhere, with him its a re-grade). Burkhalter decommitted, but there is an indication that was mutual. A spot were the staff probably had 30+ convertable offers out. One wonders a bit, with a new possible emphasis on a NT, if CA prospects like Toia or Vaka might have been more emphasized? Not sure where Armitage (Stanford) fell, Tilmon is an interesting athletic profile for sure, as well as Keanu Williams. LB: B The local kid Brown appears to be the big fish. It will be interesting to see where guys like Flowe, McNeill, and Buckner eventually fit in (all very highly rated kids by Oregon historical standards). I am not sure there were going to be more than about 3-4 LB taken, after the group last year. Guys like Davis, Calvert, and Simon were all offered early but there never seemed to be much momentum. DB: B- A bit thin at CB currently. I still see Dickerson as still petty big (and a re-grade with him). Personally, not quite as jazzed about filling up with nickel S types (an Avalos preference?). Amongst Davies, Barkins, and (hopefully) Dickerson, it will be pretty important a couple turn into quality Pac-12 corners (and soon). I've seen some different opinions on JC Perkins, but he sure seemed to blow up as a recruit, and probably goes as a "miss". There appear to have been 20+ legit CB offers out. CA kids Wright and Brown appear to have been top targets but never appeared close. Two S appeared the goal (and added two). Beavers was an early target and decommit, so that might qualify as a "miss".

No way that hypothetical Duck team is trailing the Huskies!