DazeNconfused

You're welcome and I'm very glad you liked the article. Charles and I have covered lots of ground from preseason until now about the Ducks defense. We both expected more havoc with lots of sacks and tackles for loss with the loaded talent on defense along the front seven. Boy did we miss on that! Charles and I were the first Oregon Duck writers to break that Lanning was running a Bend-Don't-Break-Redux - a Cover-2 with a four-man rush using simulated pressures as the base defense. The other Oregon Duck writers across other sites still aren't on top of this story. When you read one of them lament the lack of sacks or the amount of passing yards the Ducks give up - the FishDuck readers know the reason why! And they have known for six weeks. Charles took the FishDuck readers even farther explaining how Dillingham's offense that's so efficient scoring each possession is along Lanning's Bend-But-Don't break to working shorten the game. This article today takes the FishDuck readers into what to look for if we are going to see Lanning possibly break out some new things down the stretch of the season. It could be that we don't see them, I've been wrong before. Regardless I think the article is a fun read and I hope it provokes some of the FishDck Crew as they watch the game to pay attention to our set's pre-snap. I even hope some of you are telling your family or friends things like - since they are nearing the RedZone we should go Cover-1 here and takeaway the short slant or cross on this third and six. That's part of the fun of the game for me. Watching it and thinking how I'd defend the play and then seeing what the coaches run.

I think as long as Bo Nix keeps playing at the level he is the Ducks are going to be hard to beat for the rest of the season. UW and Penix present the biggest passing threat we have faced this so far this year. We will have a Thursday article looking at some of the things we may see Lanning break out to defend Penix and the UW passing game.

There was Gonzo in a Cover-1 man-to-man on an island and he made the pick. We are trusting Gonzo man-to-man with no deep help the safety was a long way from helping him out on that play.

No. We were in a Cover-1 and Stephens was the lone deep safety in the middle. The Corner who I thought was Manning had man-to-man coverage playing outside leverage. He let the WR go right by him and acted like he was in a Cover-2 with safety over the top playing his side deep. The corner played it like a high low bracket - but with one safety in the middle of the field he wasn't able to get over to cover the WR the Corner let run loose. The announcers said it was Gonzo who busted ( I thought it was Manning live ) FYI- in a Cover-2 the safeties are on the hash marks and can get over to the WR deep - but Stephens in Cover -1 was in the middle... that's why the Corner has man-to-man in Cover-1. I don't know why up 21 with a third and 10 we were in Cover-1 deep in their end of the field. Maybe we are getting some Cover-1 reps in preparation of Penix next week? It was a bad bust by us and I also saw us in a questionable set that left the same WR with no defender but the deep safety on 3rd down and was a easy conversion.

I was wrong we are eight games into the Lanning Era. Mel Trucker got MSU off to good start and they got overrated in the Top 4 of the first CFP rankings. Then Sparty got all knee jerk and paid him 80 million for 10 years. Sparty finished out of the Top ten last year if I recall right and are 3-5 this year. Mario has the Canes at 4-4 with his garbage offensive scheme that couldn't score a TD last week with Top 100 QB Jake Garcia the backup starting. Lanning's out preforming them this year with a more talented roster - does that get him a raise from a six-year 30 million deal to a ten year 80 million deal? I say heck no, let's not follow MSU and the Cane down that rabbit hole

We are only eight games into the Dal Lanning Era. I think he is doing a great job and might end up deserving a raise but it's a little early to be held hostage by his agent. Let alone start talking about paying him 8 figures per year! Especially over the Auburn job. Harsin's contract is apples to apples to Lanning's - they are just around 2 million dollars difference over six years. They both make under 5 million a year and barely over that in the last year. Granted Auburn might have to go up in what it's paying - Lane Kiffin is getting just over 7 million with his last extension at Ole Miss. But I don't even know if they have the money to pay any coach 10 million. My understanding is you can count on one hand the coaches getting eight figures or $10 plus million. Saban, Riley, Kelly at LSU, and Dabo. The SEC schools in general aren't paying what Mel Trucker and Mario are getting in the $8 million a year range I doubt Auburn is going to go after a head coach like Lanning with 8 games under his belt and offer him Lane Kiffin type money - let alone Mel or Mario money. Another factor is that Oregon has the #7 team talent and Auburn the #18 according to 247 sports. Laning currently has the #11 class here for 2023 with a 5-star QB who some think is the best in the class. Auburns 2023 class sits at #55 - Lanning would be making a roster down grade and taking on a class he would have to save. Plus, he would be in the SEC West with Bama, LSU, who are way ahead of Auburn in talent and Ole Miss who is right there with Kiffin a proven coach. If I'm Oregon AD and Lanning's agent tries to leverage me this year, I'm going to tell him to go fly a kite. I paid your guy what I was paying Mario before he left and gave him more staff money than Mario had. I'll tell him I'm impressed with what Lanning has done, but until he does it again in year #2, we won't be giving him a sizable raise and extension.

Ok, that's a real good point you make. You'd think Georgia would have the team chemistry and coaching leadership to overcome the adversity of losing a player like Smith. If they lose, I doubt they will use not having him as an excuse. I really have no idea who is going to win this game. Georgia is the team to beat until someone does, but they have had some not to impressive performance's this year, were the Dawgs not up for those games? UT has looked really, really good so far - I'm pulling for the Dawgs as them wining is better for the Ducks. If the Dawgs end up pound UT it makes the Ducks loss to UGA not so bad. I'll watch more of this game than the Ducks game as this is akin to a quarterfinal type of matchup.

I beg to differ. UGA isn't playing Tulane in a gimmie game. I think you're setting the bar awful high here. They are playing a UT team with a dynamic offense and a QB who is going to NY for the Heisman award ceremony. UT beat Bama - they have proven they are one of the top teams in the country. It's not a lock UGA would beat UT with Smith healthy. A loss to UT doesn't make UGA not playoff worthy caliber team. The SEC top teams are cream of the crop. UGA lost to Bama in the SEC Championship game and came back to win the title last year.

The only player they could lose and effect the team more would be the starting QB. Smith was the #1 player in the 2019 class. He was a pre-season All-American and projected 1st round pick. He is the leader of the UGA defense and is the team's best pass rusher. This is a huge story for Ducks fans. UT has one of the top offenses in FBS and now UGA plays them without the anchor of their defense. The winner of this game will win the SEC east and go to the SEC championship game. If UGA loses this game the path to the playoffs is close to shut for the Ducks. The Ducks would need Clemson and TCU to lose, and UT to beat Bama again in the SEC Championship. The Ducks could be a 1 loss Pac-12 Champ and I don't see them getting in over a 1 loss Georgia even if they didn't make the SEC title game. There is no way the Ducks get in over UGA given the week one beat down by 46 points to the Dawgs.

This is a huge loss for the Dawgs as they have their toughest game on the year this weekend with Tennessee It's comparable to us losing KT last year for the Ohio St game. Sources: Georgia LB Nolan Smith (torn pec) out for season WWW.ESPN.COM Georgia linebacker Nolan Smith will miss the remainder of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, sources confirmed to ESPN on Tuesday.

EDIT.. I want to acknowledge I come off as unsympathetic to Seven and any personal turmoil he may be going through that led to his transfer. I could be possibly jumping to conclusions without knowing the whole story. I guess I'm just the type that feel there is no legitimate reason to quit on your commitment to the team no matter how unhappy you are. This may come off as harsh to some, I understand that. I wish the Seven the best of luck, but I can still be disappointed in him. Quitting on his team mid-season 5 games before the Portal opens, "chaps my backside". Seven took a Scholly some other kid would have been happy to have and be a role player, or run on the scout team offense, and be working to get better. Quitting like this makes me even wonder how committed Seven is about working to get better? I coached a HS prep baseball team with a selected 12 player roster limit and had a player take a double length spring break vacation. The fact he and his family took a roster spot and then wanted to have less of a commitment to the team than the others was enough for me to want to send the kid back down to another level. On the flip I'd show up early to work with one of my worse players who would work his tail off and at one point moved up to the 3 -4 spot in the order from the bottom of the order. Call me old school but commitment to your team and improving your skills still carries huge weight to me. I like these new Portal rules and I think coaches are going to take a real hard look at the kids who didn't stick the year out with the team.

The Portal doesn't open until after the Bowl Selections, Thats FIVE MORE GAMES if the Ducks make the Pac-12 Championship. So, Seven quit in his teammates! What if Hutson goes down with an injury? Well Seven won't be there to step up and help the team. Moving forward with the Portal if I was a head coach - players who quit their teams before the season would be a red flag for me to take as a transfer. If you quit on your last team, then I don't want you.

Where is Seven? Behind fellow blue-chip Kris Hutson on the depth chart. I've seen Seven get some returns and a few passes, but he isn't having an impact. I did see during the UCLA that Nix was chewing him out after a third down play. Seven doesn't have the experience blocking out on the edges at the WR spot, or reading if he should break off a route and sit down in the soft spot of a zone, or running all types of routes that Hutson does. Seven is also three inches shorter than Hutson and a few pounds heavier. So, Hutson is the longer player with bigger catch radius in the slot. All those things add up and it's obvious Seven can't jump Hutson.

The UGA game Dilly showed lots of pre-snap shifts and motion and I liked what he was doing with that. What's even better is a QB who can change the play at the line according to the pre-snap look the defense is giving you. It's a numbers game and you want an extra man at the point of attack if you're the offense. It's obvious Bo and Dilly have gone through game film and Bo has built a trust with Dilly. Bo understands Dilly's scheme and how Dilly wants to attack. It probably started as simple early in the year as Dilly asking Bo if you watch film of this play, and could make a pre-snap check to another play what would you run? It's progressed from there to Bo having a good grasp of what Dilly would switch the play to at the pre-snap read. For Dilly when your QB can get you out of a play pre-snap into a play that gives you numbers, then you're loving it. Maybe it's not the play you would choose to run, but if it's still a better play if get you numbers at the point of attack, you take it. If you pay attention now you can see at times Bo goes to the line and the end of line and calls out the WRs. Bo's even waving his arms and points to the WRs. where they need to go. You will then see a pre-snap shift to a new formation - that's Bo changing the play. We might do another pre-snap shift or motion before the snap - but that's just part of the new play Bo got us into. I expect as the season goes on and Bo keeps building trust with Dilly, we will see more of Bo checking to different plays. It's not hard to imagine post game film of Dilly saying that play check was good and safe, it put us in a higher probability of a positive play, and we got one. But I'd like to see you consider being more aggressive and trying to burn them for a big play. Think about how Peyton Manning played QB. Each play he came to the line and checked the defense trying to make sure he felt he was going to run the best play he could for what he saw. I'm not saying we are going to see Bo at that level, but Dilly don't want him running plays into the defense where they have the numbers. Another big factor with Bo is the OL gives him the time to stay in the pocket and set his feet in his throws. Something Bo didn't have consistently before. You are seeing Bo driving the ball with some zip at times and making some big-time throws. Yes, Bo has floated some deep balls. He was outside the pocket against Cal and could have set his feet on a ball he bounced to the WR in the first quarter. But for the most part Bo has been setting his feet and driving the ball down the field on the throws he needs to, something he didn't do as well before. Bo is also throwing the ball away more than he used to and coming back the next play to attack the defense. Lastly, Bo really understands this offense, the plays and WR routes. More than a few times he has broken out of the pocket under pressure and was looking like he was going to run. I've seen defenders coming up because they thought he was running and Bo at the last-minute find an open WR. Bo is really good knowing when he is flushed where is WRs routes are and has made that play on the run just before he crosses the line of scrimmage on the run. I've seen Bo make this play plenty of times. He could have run for a gain, but he found the WR for a better gain. That's knowing the routes and great vison - and it makes him even more dangerous than his already is on the run and throwing off platform. So, in conclusion. Bo is checking pre-snap into better plays. He is staying in the pocket without happy feet and driving the ball with zip better. He is throwing the ball away and not forcing it as much. He has uncanny running ability and off platform throwing ability and is even better with his vison finding the open WR. Bo has improved his weak spots and his strengths

This is a great article, Charles. I don't see any other sites yet really grasp what we saw and wrote about over a month ago with the Bend-But-Don't-Break Redux article you helped me with. We saw great examples of this with just three plays against UCLA. Jamal Hill and Bennett Williams had double coverage and broke up an early pass in the endzone, Gonzo defended a deep pass and had the interception if he held the ball to the ground. Addison came over from deep safety to help cover the deepest WR on the route and had the endzone interception. Those were three game changing plays that were defended by the backend of the defense. Gonzo was turned loose man-to-man and the other two the deep safety got over to help defend. We just aren't seeing WRs getting behind our defense for big plays when teams try to force the ball deep. We are giving the bubble screen, slants, crosses and WR wheel routes our LBs have been beat on for TDs up all day long, but you have to force the ball if you go deep on us. We forced three FGs and had an interception - so we limited the scoring of UCLA on four drives. Of a potential 28 points on those drives they scored 9. I think fans are reading too much into the Ducks defense by where they rate in total defense. Lanning isn't employing an aggressive havoc scheme to limit total yards - so total defense isn't the matrix to judge the Ducks defense by. The matrix to judge the Ducks defense by are four things. Rush yards per game by a defense that plays mostly two deep safeties. Oregon protects against the deep ball while still having a good run D. Explosion plays allowed. Points allowed per possession. Total team wins. Fans should also note the Ducks have a top 4 SEC defense talent wise and the No. 1 in the Pac-12. The Ducks this year face tons of good passing QBs in the Pac, out of conference, and in the Pac-12 Championship. DTR, Rising, Penix, Ward, Jayden De Laura, Stenson Bennett, Jalen Hall and possibly Caleb Williams in the Pac-12 title game. Now ask yourself what are the strengths of the Ducks defense? No explosion passing plays, run defense (with two deep safeties), getting pressure on the QB rushing four with simulated pressures, and getting coverage sacks when teams try to run deep routes and not take the underneath passes we are giving them. Seems like Lanning had a plan first year for the defense talent he inherited and the QBs they would face. I'd also say Lanning knew he would have offense that makes games a track meet and found a way to use that to his advantage. Circa 2012: Lanning Replicates Bend-But-Don’t-Break Defense FISHDUCK.COM Duck fans, sometimes two heads are better than one, and amazing minds tend to think alike. It appears Oregon’s head coach Dan Lanning has concluded that the...

No not everyone gets NIL. If you're a lowly 3-star who plays in the 3rd and long passing down Dime defense package you're not to marketable or much of an impact player. The QBs have value in being marketable and as an impact player. Booster's collective will pay them the most. But if you're a 5-star DL you can get paid for being an impact player - they just say the money is for your Name-Image-Likeness. The loophole here the booster's collectives can pay the best players to play for their team to load up on talent. They get away with it by saying the money isn't paying them to play - it's for the NIL. They can hold an event at a car lot the players attended and sign autographs for 5 people and pay them $50K or whatever for that. There is no declared matrix of market values that defines what player is worth and if they are being overpaid for their Name-Image-Likeness. So, it comes down to how much money do we have to spend on the roster? The ones with the most to spend get the best teams

NIL is not to be used as an inducement to recruit players by the school - doing so at any time is a violation. The problem is the collectives operate independent of the school. If a player did set up a sting on another school, would he have evidence to prove the school was involved? How is the NCAA going to punish the institution for what a booster's collective did independently? The NIL is a mess, and the NCAA needs to move fast to figure out a way to regulate it as best they can. It's empowered booster collectives to recruit HS kids and offer them a NIL deal they will get when they sign the letter of intent. They can also contact a family member or friend and let them know if a player transfers, they will get a NIL deal. The school and coaching staffs can play stupid and say we had no idea what our boosters were doing, while claiming other schools are trying to induce their players into the portal. it's a circle of stupidity

Tell that to Nick Saban who won four natty with QBs like JaMarcus TheBust Russel, McElroy, AJ McCarron and the last guy I can't remember. One of them had the pretty GF they showed on TV over and over. Les Miles who won a Natty with matt Flynn -- QBs don't make great coaches

The older I get some things just slip my mind or are hard to make an instant recall. This was one of the gripes about Helf. If I remember correctly.. Tua let his grades drop some early in his HS career and Helf left him with a let's see you get your grades up and show you want to play college football.

This is a great post Charles, and it could get me to go off on a rant about Hoke and Pellum's LBs he was coaching. I'll leave it as it appeared we didn't watch any game film and correct mistakes all season -- we saw the same saw busts on D all year long. over and over and over To your second point of Helf not being a leader - I agree. Helf was a nice guy, but he was soft. He wasn't the type of pf guy to jump down Hoke's throat, chew his butt out and hold him accountable. He demoted Pellum from DC and moved him back to LB coach - should have just fired him and moved on. Why bring the bad blood of a 30 plus year coach who had been demoted back? Helf was soft and teams take on the persona of the coach. Chip wasn't soft, Mario wasn't soft, Lanning isn't soft. Clay Helton was soft and had his buddies on his coaching staff - the AD had to make him fire them as part of keeping Helton. Helf should have fired Hoke mid-season when it was apparent the coaching the players were getting was sub-standard. Kids now call that having some DOG in you - Helf had no DOG in him and no bite. That was also a good article you wrote back in the day. The only thing I'd dispute is if Morgan Mahalak should have been playing. He was a one-year starter in HS football - he was Jared Goffs WR his junior year. My take is Mahalak was an entitled little twat who was bad for the locker room and felt he was due the next man up after MM left. With one year starting in HS and one redshirt season there was no way he was close to the level of VA who came in day 1 and was Elite. Mahalak should have been realistic that he was going to have to bide his time and develop in college to make up for the game experience he missed in HS. Instead of sticking around for his third year and competing with Prokup - the entitled twat took off to Towson. Check Mahalaks stats at Towson - he was never the guy there. Maybe if he stayed in Helfs system for year three he beats out Prokup or is QB2 and ends up taking over? Or maybe Herbs beats him out too? Mahalak is one of my least favorite Duck transfers and you can pick up the vibe why I think that's so. Herbs played in a spread offense at Sheldon and had lots of game experience in HS - he came in and got through his progressions better than Terry Wilson and Travis Jonsen from day 1. In the period of the 9 years that the Ducks had 8 years combined of MM-VA-Herbs, the only Transfer QB that had any success was Terry Wilson who ended up as the starter at Kentucky in the SEC. Even then he was average at best. In that same 9-year period how many teams had two 1st round QB picks come out of the program and a third who was as good as VA?

My biggest gripe is the kickoff return defense. It seems every game we let one return out to the 40-yard line.

I'm still going to disagree with what you said in the OP regarding Helf and his QBs. I'm not going to get into the weeds all things Helf, I was responding to his QBs. Transfers happened in Helf's Era and even got more high profile. Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Joe Burrow all were transfers - did their coaches fail for not keeping their recruits? Last year we saw tons of QB transfers. Slovis, Dart, Penix, Spencer Rattler, Quinn Ewers, Dillion Gaberial, Cam ward, Daniels to LSU, Bo Nix, JT Daniles, jaden De Laura, Max Jonhson, Plummer to Cal. If you're setting the bar that Helf had to have two 1st round NFL QB picks and VA - plus he had to keep his recruits and develop them into prime time QBs then I guess that's your take. it is what it is, we disagree on what Helf did with his QBs - no biggie I've had this disagreement about Helf before.

I respectfully disagree. His last year he won the Pat Tillman, 1st team All-Pac, 1st team All-American. He was the best defender in the Pac IMO. Talo going in fifth round was on the NFL scouts not USC. He had a history of two broken collar bones and ran a bad 40 time at the combine. His USC film didn't show him lacking speed and his instincts were elite. The USC defense took a huge nosedive the next year without him. My uncle is a USC alum and was stoked when they got him. Huff and Troy Palo are the two Oregon Poly safeties that got away.

I've answered this idea that Helfrich didn't recruit or develop QBs before here on the Forum. Bryan Bennett was a 4-star who transferred out because of MM. Bennett showed on the field he was not a bust and would have been a great Duck QB if not for MM. Helf was Bennett's primary recruiter the year before MM, then Helf got MM the next year. Then the year after we got Jake Rodrigues who was a 4-star. MM causes two 4-star QBs to leave the program, plus he scared away any good QB signings in 2013. 2014 saw us get Morgan Mahalak a 4-star during MM's last year. 2015 saw us land VA as a Grad Transfer and he was AWESOME - plus we signed 4-star Travis Jonsen. 2016 The Ducks got Grad Transfer Dakoata Prukop and Morgan Mahalak left the team. In fall camp Justin Herbert, a 3-star came in and as a true frosh beat out Travis Jonsen and he left the program. In conclusion Helf got plenty of talented QB recruits - including four who were 4-stars and two who were 3-stars and ended up as 1st round draft picks. What more did any Duck fan want from Helf? Bennett, Rodrigues, Mahalak and Jonsen all cut bait and ran. Mahalak couldn't beat out VA so that's not a strike on Helf. Mahalak bailed and didn't compete with Prokup - who was no VA for sure. Helf got 7 years starting QB play out of MM and Herbs, and for good measure he got a year out of VA that if he didn't get hurt, we probably are in the playoffs and VA is in NY as a Heisman finalist. Here is what people are complaining about with Helf... In 2015 when VA got hurt, he didn't have good backup, well two 4-stars had bailed because MM and Mahalak was just a 2nd year guy. In 2016 we didn't have a HS recruited QB developed and got Prukop - again the Rodrigues and Mahalak had bailed out. But Herbs emerged over 2nd year Jonsen. In 2017 when Herbs got hurt there wasn't a good backup QB for Taggart - well 4-stars Mahalak and Jonsen had bailed. I don't know where some Duck fans have got the mantra Helf screwed up the QB recruiting and development. The man brought us two 1st round picks and VA as Grad Transfer. Thats eight seasons out of nine that Helfs dudes were kicking butt at QB for the Ducks. I would think going forward anyone who reads this post would lose the idea Helf failed. EDIT: look at the QBs transferred out because of Herbs. Jonsen, Terry Wilson, Burmeister. That makes six QBs who left the program from MM's 1st starting year until Herbs last - five of them were 4-stars.

It's going to be interesting to see what Lanning does. I'd say we were in Cover-2 defense 90% of the time at WAZZU. We seemed to do that less last week at Arizona. Will we be that heavy Cover-2 team all year, that is bend dont break?