Linear Broadcasting

[Wrathis]

Just figured I'd drop this in here and see what everyone thinks. This is the 4th story I've seen in the last 2 days regarding linear vs streaming and I'm wondering how all of you see this playing out in regards to OBD.  Granted, I feel like we speculativly beat this horse to death, but I continue seeing more stories and coverage about how linear television advertising is dying more quickly than a Mari Cristbal offense. While it is true that I expected this would be the case 5 years down the road, I'm awfully surprised to see these articles coming out before ink is even dry on the parchment. What say you all, were we too rash in judging the Apple+ deal or was jumping ship 100% the right move?

 

Traditional TV 'past the point of no return' as viewership hits record low

WWW.YAHOO.COM

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Traditional TV viewing is falling off a cliff as media companies scramble to reset strategies.

 

[Charles Fischer]

Can't go all-streaming either, with so many negative components to that.  It will be gradual, thus you need both.

 

I should have written that months ago...

 

[DUCKED]

The Ducks chose the known over the unknown. Time will tell if it ends up being the best decision.

 

But, in my opinion, it was the right decision, especially given the choices available.

[Jon Joseph]

1. Come 2031, OREGON and UW will be full-share members of the B1G. Estimates for media revenue go as high as $90M for each team per annum. 

 

2. As of 2021, the B1G Network had 54.3M subscribers. The Pac-12 Network, @13M subscribers.

 

3. Media.com - Ranking of 131 P5/G5 teams avergae number of viwers in 2022.

 

B1G -

 

1. Ohio State - 5.8M

 

3. Michigan

 

9. Penn State

 

16. Nebraska

 

17. Michigan State

 

19. Maryland

 

26. Wisconsin

 

27. Iowa

 

31. Indiana

 

32. Illinois

 

35. Northwestern

 

37. Minnesota

 

44. Purdue

 

58. Rutgers

 

3 in the Top 10 and 13 in the Top 50.

 

Pac-12 -

 

1. OREGON - 2.210M

 

14. USC

 

25. UCLA

 

33. Utah

 

34. UW

 

41. Washington State

 

45. Cal

 

47. Stanford

 

57. Oregon State

 

61. Arizona

 

66. Colorado

 

70. ASU

 

0 Top 10. 8 Top 50.

 

4. IMO, it will be easier as a B1G member to make the 12-team playoff field than staying in the Pac-10 and adding number 82 most watched San Diego State and 71 most watched SMU. 

 

Come 2024 and Oregon will be the beneficiary of East Coast Bias and will be covered by the B1G Network that is certain to grow subscriptions with Oregon, UCLA, USC, and UW coming on board.

 

To do anything other than accept the B1G offer would have been gross financial negligence. Something Puddles has seen enough of for 12+ years. None of the salient numbers justify second thoughts about Puddles flying to B1G country.

[David Marsh]

Things will start to shif to being easily available on both platforms. 

 

I do think streaming is going to undergo a few major growing pains. I remember when Netflix and Hulu were basically the only two big streaming platforms, and that had changed a ton in the last decade. 

 

Right now we are in the proliferation of streaming. There really do feel like there are too many streaming services right now and if you were to have them all then you'd be paying for cable. Most don't have all of them but like 3ish I'd guess. 

 

I know my wife and I have like 3 maybe 4 right now. We also have logins for a few others from family members. 

 

I noticed that paramount plus is raising their price. I suspect it's because they aren't making their goals... In part because it is too expensive to have of you don't use it enough. 

 

Prices will need to come down on these streaming services if they expect us to have more of them. 

[jrw]

Well, the major streaming players - HBO, DIsney, Peacock, Hulu, - are losing money hand over fist, so I wouldn't bet against linear tv just yet. Amazon and Apple are different, because they can lose tens of millions a year (sofa cushion money) for on streaming sports if they think it will pay off in the future.

 

The entire media/entertainment business is in crisis, as pretty much everybody is losing money and has no idea what to do about it. Who knows how things will shake out.

 

But, as long as live sports are on linear tv, people will watch them (what choice do they have?) and advertisers will follow, as live sports are the only thing that people can't or won't time shift.

Edited August 16, 2023 by jrw

[AnotherOD]

I point I don't see discussed too much, it appears through cable packages A LOT of people who aren't college football (or even really big sports) fans and still pushing in a portion of their monthly bill that ends up at places like ESPN.

 

Like, all the people with cable in NYC likely are throwing in a fee for the B12 Network; and, likely a lot of them would likely opt out if given a choice by their cable 

 

If cable eventually disappears, what impact do these "lost" dollars mean to the ever growing college football bottom line?

Edited August 16, 2023 by AnotherOD

[David Marsh]

On 8/15/2023 at 5:29 PM, AnotherOD said:

I point I don't see discussed too much, it appears through cable packages A LOT of people who aren't college football (or even really big sports) fans and still pushing in a portion of their monthly bill that ends up at places like ESPN.

I brought this up in anothwr tread a while ago. 

 

 

I know back in the 2000's that ESPN took at least 10-15 dollars right out of everyone's cable bill. 

 

The big thing happening with streaming too is that when people stop watching they unsubscribe (not everyone) so there needs to be a constant stream of content (pun intended) that people want to watch. 

 

Oddly enough old shows play a big role in this as people live their old favorites. I'm holding onto paramount because I like Strange New Worlds (finished season 2 now) but I still love some "reruns" of the rest of star trek as well. 

[Jon Joseph]

The B1G network (BTN) does have a streaming entity, B1G+, I believe, that carries many sports not shown on linear TV. 

 

If you do not have BTN, I strongly suggest any Ducks fan subscribe to BTN. The coverage of the conference is fantastic as has been the coverage of Oregon and UW joining the conference. Ducks football and all other sports will no longer be buried on the Pac-12 Network. BTN also does a great job of pregame and postgame coverage.

[Jon Joseph]

On 8/15/2023 at 7:53 PM, Jon Joseph said:

1. Come 2031, OREGON and UW will be full-share members of the B1G. Estimates for media revenue go as high as $90M for each team per annum. 

 

2. As of 2021, the B1G Network had 54.3M subscribers. The Pac-12 Network, @13M subscribers.

 

3. Media.com - Ranking of 131 P5/G5 teams avergae number of viwers in 2022.

 

B1G -

 

1. Ohio State - 5.8M

 

3. Michigan

 

9. Penn State

 

16. Nebraska

 

17. Michigan State

 

19. Maryland

 

26. Wisconsin

 

27. Iowa

 

31. Indiana

 

32. Illinois

 

35. Northwestern

 

37. Minnesota

 

44. Purdue

 

58. Rutgers

 

3 in the Top 10 and 13 in the Top 50.

 

Pac-12 -

 

1. OREGON - 2.210M

 

14. USC

 

25. UCLA

 

33. Utah

 

34. UW

 

41. Washington State

 

45. Cal

 

47. Stanford

 

57. Oregon State

 

61. Arizona

 

66. Colorado

 

70. ASU

 

0 Top 10. 8 Top 50.

 

4. IMO, it will be easier as a B1G member to make the 12-team playoff field than staying in the Pac-10 and adding number 82 most watched San Diego State and 71 most watched SMU. 

 

Come 2024 and Oregon will be the beneficiary of East Coast Bias and will be covered by the B1G Network that is certain to grow subscriptions with Oregon, UCLA, USC, and UW coming on board.

 

To do anything other than accept the B1G offer would have been gross financial negligence. Something Puddles has seen enough of for 12+ years. None of the salient numbers justify second thoughts about Puddles flying to B1G country.

Sorry for the blip. Oregon's viewership ranking was 12. 

[Washington Waddler]

     Strictly in terms of technology, cable is fully grown while streaming is still in its infancy. As it’s foundational delivery processes continue to develop, we should see its inconsistencies begin to disappear. It’s just unfortunate timing for the PAC that linear’s (Fox) power moves could not at this time be matched by this competitor.

 

     That said, it remains my feeling that the ridiculous amounts of money being thrown at universities by companies like Fox in order to drive their agendas is not sustainable. It remains to be seen if you can simply ‘buy’ an abiding sports tradition founded on regional passions, and replace it with artificial rivalries between schools with no connection in order to make buckets of cash.

 

     Right now linear and its attempt to financially monopolize college sports interests is in the diver’s seat. But I would caution giving too much trust to this process. It’s never wise to put the cart before the horse. It was not money that created our passion for college football; all money did was see an opportunity to make more, and if things don’t go right, money will care less how much you love the Ducks.

 

     Admittedly, any significant change to the current situation is way in the future, but you’ve got to dream, don’t you?

Edited August 16, 2023 by Washington Waddler
grammar

[Jon Joseph]

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/ohio-state-peacock-maryland-big-ten-fans-unhappy

 

 

Sorry Brutus, but you did take the B1G dinero.

 

[NJDuck]

 

I thought this one was funny from a buckeye fan.

 

What the hell is peacock and how do I get it?

[Charles Fischer]

I believe Peacock is the streaming entity of NBC?

 

Peacock: Stream TV and Movies Online, Watch Live News and Sports

WWW.PEACOCKTV.COM

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Watch TV shows and movies online with Peacock. Stream iconic shows and movies, exclusive Peacock Originals, live news and sports and more.

 

[DanLduck]

For me, one of the biggest unknowns is whether college football fans will follow en-masse to wherever the games are showing. 

I know all of us here at OBD will, but lots of $$ comes from "band wagon" fans.

And regional bias plays in to that. But mostly winning does.

 

Paying for streaming is an overt act, it takes an intentional action. When you're channel surfing and stumble upon a game you might like, that's incidental. 

 

Streaming requires intentional acts, and willingness to spend more $$. 

 

I keep reading that ESPN will be all streaming in a few years, maybe even with new ownership. Disney streaming is going up to double its intro fee, becuz they claim losing $$.

 

With the current status of college sports, realignment, nil, transfer portal, huge salaries, long travel times for non-revenue sports, I sense a bit of negative reaction from those "band wagon" types. They may not be willing to pay up additional $ for extra tv. More and more, people are realizing they can vote with their wallets.

 

I hope joining the B1G will not result in negative feedback for Oregon. 

 

My guess is that as we continue to win, the fans will come.

 

 

[Annie]

On 8/16/2023 at 1:22 PM, DanLduck said:

For me, one of the biggest unknowns is whether college football fans will follow en-masse to wherever the games are showing. 

I know all of us here at OBD will, but lots of $$ comes from "band wagon" fans.

...

Not necessarily all of us...

[DanLduck]

Btw, another thought I had: does anyone know how many games Fox shows on a given day?

 

In recent history, every Duck game has been televised, at least on Pac12 network if not on the others.

 

Could we get stuck watching tOSU? Or Penn St.? Or will there be regional decisions made?

 

Will we have to compete with the other west coast teams for tv time?

 

I'm concerned we won't get every Duck game televised. I've become spoiled. 

[NJDuck]

On 8/16/2023 at 4:28 PM, DanLduck said:

Btw, another thought I had: does anyone know how many games Fox shows on a given day?

 

In recent history, every Duck game has been televised, at least on Pac12 network if not on the others.

 

Could we get stuck watching tOSU? Or Penn St.? Or will there be regional decisions made?

 

Will we have to compete with the other west coast teams for tv time?

 

I'm concerned we won't get every Duck game televised. I've become spoiled

Every game will be televised.  Either on FOX, FS1, FS2, NBC, CBS or Big Ten Network.  Big Ten Network is way better than Pac-12 Network.  There could be a game played on Peacock, but I believe all teams in the Big Ten will wind up playing on Peacock.  No one, including OSU is immune from being shown on Peacock.

 

But, if on Peacock and you don't want to pay to see it, I bet a rerun of a game that was shown on Peacock will wind up on Big Ten Network.

[DanLduck]

On 8/16/2023 at 2:03 PM, NJDuck said:

Every game will be televised.  Either on FOX, FS1, FS2, NBC, CBS or Big Ten Network.

Thanks!

[PuddleDuck]

I mentioned this on another thread, but  the biggest blunder in this whole thing belongs to Apple.  If they pushed the value per school to 35m they’d have owned west coast college football. (Outside of LA)

 

Linear TV is dying and the PAC12 would have had the backing of a tech and media company that posts Billions in profits every quarter.

 

Innovation is what got Oregon athletics where it is today, uniforms, facilities, billboards etc.  The under 30 crowd doesn’t care what screen things are on, maybe even under 40.

 

Apple would have been an amazing parter with Oregon for media innovation.

 

Oregon took the sure thing and I understand why.  But following tOSU and Michigan is not what built the Oregon we have now. I’m sure it’ll all be OK for OBD in the long run, but it was Apple that blew the chance to lead sports into streaming.

 

To the OPs question. No, it was the wrong decision for being at the forefront of bold innovation and yes, it was was the right decision because of the stability and money.

 

Apple should have offered enough guaranteed money.

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/16/2023 at 2:16 PM, PuddleDuck said:

Apple should have offered enough guaranteed money.

I don't disagree with your premise, but there were other problems besides.

 

1. No guarantee of being on TV?

2. The Pac-12 has production costs subtracted from the revenue contract?

3. To make our revenue targets--there needs to be "X" amount of subscribers?  Nice try...shifting the risk to us is a crappy play.  Athletic departments have ENOUGH risk at this time from a ton of angles.

 

This was never going to work, and considering what was offered....Oregon made the right move.  But, like you--I wish it had played out different.  Yet I cannot help but feel that Oregon could explode in the B1G....

[noDucknewby]

I have both cable and streaming.  My big gripe with cable is the ridiculous cost and lower resolution feeds.  That said, it's much easier to channel surf for live sports, opening and closing apps is a bit of a pain.

 

I am a Prime member so I get their streaming service included and I pay extra for Netflix.  The technical quality of both their feeds is vastly superior.  I have invested a fair amount of money in my home theatre setup and the best resolution I get from Spectrum (hate them although their internet is great) is 1K.  On Netflix or Prime I can get 4K feeds and watching a movie with Dolby Vision/Atmos really brings my system to life.  I would love to have that for live sports.  I watched a couple of the NFL feeds on Prime and the technical quality was very good but the interface is still clunky.  I prefer recording with my DVR then skipping the commercials (which you can still do with Prime at least), but the fast forward function doesn't work that well.

 

I'd stick with cable forever probably if I had decent 4K options and a reasonable price but that seems unlikely.

[fred flintstone]

Well.....right now I can get all the movies I want streaming.......all the original better than linear programming streaming........

what I cannot get is all the sports I want......unless I don't get it......which in this modern world happens more and more to me.

When sports totally converts to streaming......the cable companies will be going the way of an old video store for tapes......because what else do they offer worth paying hundreds for.....until that day......it goes on......which explains why, NBC, CBS etc will fight with outrageous bids for sports.  

[jrw]

Our comments here perfectly illustrate why the media/industrial complex is in a dither: we have 23 comments, about 24 different opinions on the future of broadcasting, and at least as many different personal viewing habits and preferences.

 

What's a media mogul to do? And, all the other players involved?

Edited August 16, 2023 by jrw

[Mudslide]

On 8/16/2023 at 2:47 PM, noDucknewby said:

I have both cable and streaming.  My big gripe with cable is the ridiculous cost and lower resolution feeds.  That said, it's much easier to channel surf for live sports, opening and closing apps is a bit of a pain.

 

I am a Prime member so I get their streaming service included and I pay extra for Netflix.  The technical quality of both their feeds is vastly superior.  I have invested a fair amount of money in my home theatre setup and the best resolution I get from Spectrum (hate them although their internet is great) is 1K.  On Netflix or Prime I can get 4K feeds and watching a movie with Dolby Vision/Atmos really brings my system to life.  I would love to have that for live sports.  I watched a couple of the NFL feeds on Prime and the technical quality was very good but the interface is still clunky.  I prefer recording with my DVR then skipping the commercials (which you can still do with Prime at least), but the fast forward function doesn't work that well.

 

I'd stick with cable forever probably if I had decent 4K options and a reasonable price but that seems unlikely.

You're absolutely right about the video resolution crap that Spectrum puts out.  (And I also cannot abide their goofy remote interface and limited channel recording.) But there is good news on the horizon for us unhappy Spectrum users.  Well, good news for me for certain, anyway.  Though no service is without its issues, I like the satellite service from DirecTV.  The BTN is in their sports package.  I will happily be going (back) to DirecTV at the end of this basketball season and enjoying the Ducks next year in the B1G.

[NJDuck]

 

BIG TEN FANS REVOLT AFTER GAMES ARE PUT ON PEACOCK

 

Big Ten Fans Revolt After Games Are Put On Peacock – OutKick

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

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Ohio State fans and others around the Big Ten don't seem too pumped about games being on Peacock. People complained on Twitter.

 

[Charles Fischer]

So....the pushback to streaming is not only from Oregon fans!  Look at the "X" posts in that article above from fans about having a Maryland game on streaming. Whew!  Imagine if it was the WHOLE SEASON as it was appearing for Oregon with the Apple contract.

 

It is the way of the world, and they/we will all adjust.  

 

Streaming? Not for ME!

[Jon Joseph]

With its move to the B1G, Oregon is not leaving streaming behind. B!G+ is the B1G network's streaming service with hundreds of the B1G conference non-revenue sports played on B1G+.

 

Peacock, NBC's streaming entity, will exclusively broadcast 8 B1G games this season including UW at Michigan State.

 

The new B1G media deal begins in 2024 and concludes after the 2030 season. Concludes before the B12, SEC, and ACC deals conclude. Come 2031, if streaming is the go-to broadcast platform, Fox and CBS will not be left behind. So, as I see it, Oregon has the best of both worlds.

 

The majority of the Ducks B1G games will be carried on linear TV. By 2031 kinks in streaming games will likely be remedied and Oregon as a then full-share B1G member will reap the benefit without having to be an on-the-cheap beta site for Amazon. 

 

It's Win-Win!

[David Marsh]

On 8/15/2023 at 7:08 PM, Washington Waddler said:

That said, it remains my feeling that the ridiculous amounts of money being thrown at universities by companies like Fox in order to drive their agendas is not sustainable. It remains to be seen if you can simply ‘buy’ an abiding sports tradition founded on regional passions, and replace it with artificial rivalries between schools with no connection in order to make buckets of cash.

 

     Right now linear and its attempt to financially monopolize college sports interests is in the diver’s seat. But I would caution giving too much trust to this process. It’s never wise to put the cart before the horse. It was not money that created our passion for college football; all money did was see an opportunity to make more, and if things don’t go right, money will care less how much you love the Ducks.

You touched on it... Monopolization of college sports into two mega conferences with all the biggest brands. 

 

Next step is get rid of the schools who don't have enough value (looking at Rutgers, Northwestern, Vanderbilt among others) and then set a price that has a good payout for the media institutions. 

 

Then we basically have something akin to the NFL with their two leagues.