Realistic Recruiting? What Do YOU See?

[Charles Fischer]

It looks like Oregon has lost momentum for Brandon Baker, the 5-Star OL, yet I cannot help but wonder what would happen with him and a few other biggies if Oregon kicks-butt this season as I believer we will?

 

Do you think we will flip some?  Or is the largest bag, (NIL) what matters for many of the 5-Stars?

 

As I look forward for recruiting...I have to look back at all the years of suffering, the scrapping, the great analysis and coaching-up of so many players.  Of all the busts, and all the great ones...

 

The truth is, Oregon has not been an elite top-five program consistently for a long time, and once we get back there for two years straight--then the recruiting jumps into the top-five of the rankings.  I believe Oregon will finish again in the top-ten of the recruiting rankings--missing out on the tough ones.  Yet with a great year--the Ducks are poised for great success in the future.

 

We have more than enough talent to play with the best; the difference now is experience in a given year, (and this team has tons of that) and coaching.  (Which, frankly, is still unproven IMHO)

 

Thoughts?

 

Big Sack for Popo!

[idontrollonshobbas]

I get the felling that Baker is trying to convince himself to make his own path by going somewhere other than his brother’s alma mater.

 

I am also confident in Oregons ability to exceed other schools value proposition. 
 

 

[Log Haulin]

I think media will also play a roll in how the rest of the nation views Oregon. Media loves to love on Oregon when Ducks give them a reason. Game Day in particular.

 

I also think the media loves the Dan Lanning story. Again, if Lanning gives them a reason, they will be putting him in front of blue chip kids every week. 

 

Going B1G is a turning point in how the Oregon narrative will be set. Its up to the Ducks to kick the door open and claim their seat at the table.

 

This year might be the single most impactfull year for future recruiting classes. For the future of Oregons quest to be amongst the greats.

 

Win the final year of the Pac, make the CFP. Go into the B1G next year and make a huge dent. Ducks will be a top 5 recruiting progr'm for years. 

[HappyToBeADuck]

IMHO, the uncertainty created by GK's silence created doubt in the minds of recruits and their families.

 

That doubt or unknown opened the door for other schools to swoop in, step up their efforts and be in a position to land the 5☆ talent.

 

And there has never been a moment in the 2024 recruiting cycle where DL and staff could look the recruit and parents in the eyes and give an absolute answer to:

 

     Will our son play games on

     National linear TV?

 

If the 2023 Duck squad is headed to the PAC 12 title game, with 1 or less losses, then at least 1 or 2 of these talented 5☆players may switch.

 

Going forward, it will take consistent classes of 4 or 5 top players (5☆) to compete or climb over the top tier of the BIG. Or top 5 portal classes! Or both....

 

Even with the overwhelming talent advantage OBD's have had in the PAC, we havent been to the CFP in a decade. tOSU, Michigan, PSU, Iowa and Whisky are a pretty tough top tier to batyle with.

 

No one will hand us the BIG title and a CFP spot. We must earn it. Our view of our Ducks will not be shared by our opponents.

 

Going forward, the uncertainty is gone out of the recruiting living room. DL and staff are tireless recruiters and they will land their share of TOP 30 players.

 

The greater the challenge you overcome usually reaps a greater reward 

 

GO DUCKS......

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/19/2023 at 9:17 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

That doubt or unknown opened the door for other schools to swoop in, step up their efforts and be in a position to land the 5☆ talent.

 

And there has never been a moment in the 2024 recruiting cycle where DL and staff could look the recruit and parents in the eyes and give an absolute answer to:

 

     Will our son play games on

     National linear TV?

That is a great point, and Lanning has recruited well considering he's been facing that headwind.  The stability now created by Lanning's contract and the B1G is huge for recruiting.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Was Dilly the offensive mastermind that brought the offense back to life, or was it a sleeping giant that Lanning woke back up? Is Lanning an over rated defensive coordinator that held a clipboard for Kirby Smart, or has he rebuilt the terrible Duck D into a Georgia esque machine? Year two will go a long way to answering these questions. If I'm a legit five star recruit, I'd want to get a sense of understanding before committing.

 

This may be the most important season for UO in a very long time coming up. 12-1 and playoff bound, expect the five star flood gates to open. 8-4 with the same problems on D as last year, expect a flood of decommits. I think the pond is more than half full and the Ducks win the Pac, make the playoffs and head to the BIG as THE team to join.

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/19/2023 at 10:00 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

If I'm a legit five star recruit, I'd want to get a sense of understanding before committing.

Really, really good point.  They need to see results, and I don't blame them.

[David Marsh]

I could see some flips happen closer to December. Oregon's NIL doesn't get into a bidding war until December because it just raises the price needlessly early. 

 

I think Oregon could probably flip Rushing for two reasons... The Big 12 and the B1G are going to be two completely beasts next year and the B1G is going to be the better league with far more visibility.

 

Guess who goes on Fox and who goes on FS1? It's a no brainer. 

 

Also for Rushing I think Oregon opens up the purse strings a little and might get closer to the Arizona offer. Those two things might encourage a flip. 

 

Baker has enjoyed the recruiting game and Nebraska is really feeling like TAMU of this cycle. They got themselves a coach they like and now their NIL is throwing as much money as possible at recruits to get him players. 

 

I do believe Oregon has one of the best handles on how to work NIL. But they are also working with a longer term plan than some of these other teams. Oregon's NIL will not over pay for high school recruits but will have the resources to pay for transfer portal players. 

 

Remember Oregon got some big offensive linemen that were highly coveted in the transfer portal last cycle and don't forget Burch who was also covered. 

 

Sure... Other teams "beat" Oregon in transfer portal rankings but I don't think anyone really beat Oregon in getting high quality trench players. And Oregon got the pieces needed on the roster. 

 

Whatever we can't fill via recruiting high schooler, I am confident in this staff's ability to fill via the transfer portal. 

 

Going to also need Lanning to prove himself for another year as a head coach to convince some parents and athletes. 

 

[DUCKED]

On 8/19/2023 at 8:50 AM, Charles Fischer said:

It looks like Oregon has lost momentum for Brandon Baker, the 5-Star OL, yet I cannot help but wonder what would happen with him and a few other biggies if Oregon kicks-butt this season as I believer we will?

 

Do you think we will flip some?  Or is the largest bag, (NIL) what matters for many of the 5-Stars?

 

As I look forward for recruiting...I have to look back at all the years of suffering, the scrapping, the great analysis and coaching-up of so many players.  Of all the busts, and all the great ones...

 

The truth is, Oregon has not been an elite top-five program consistently for a long time, and once we get back there for two years straight--then the recruiting jumps into the top-five of the rankings.  I believe Oregon will finish again in the top-ten of the recruiting rankings--missing out on the tough ones.  Yet with a great year--the Ducks are poised for great success in the future.

 

We have more than enough talent to play with the best; the difference now is experience in a given year, (and this team has tons of that) and coaching.  (Which, frankly, is still unproven IMHO)

 

Thoughts?

 

Big Sack for Popo!

I’m glad you included coaching in your remarks. There were a couple of games last year when head scratching offensive plays were called that impacted the outcome….Washington for instance, being one example.

 

And our inability to stop the Huskies’ passing attack, even when the Ducks knew a pass was coming on virtually every play, cost us that game, just as our inability to stop the run against Oregon State in the 2nd half (when the Beavs didn’t throw a single pass) doomed us in the Civil War.

 

So, yes, the Ducks appear to have strengthened their roster through effective use of the portal. I hope we see an uptick in coaching and game management as well.

 

Everything points to a great season for the Ducks.

 

We’ll know soon if what’s on paper translates to the field…..perhaps as soon as the Texas Tech game in Lubbock.

[Charles Fischer]

On 8/19/2023 at 10:02 AM, David Marsh said:

I am confident in this staff's ability to fill via the transfer portal. 

So true, as Lanning killed it in the portal last year--which will be evident as the season progresses.  It makes sense to pay NIL to proven players, versus high school players with upside.  Ducks have a budget, and are probably saving for portal transfers.

[Jon Joseph]

Come On Dan! Do the Flipper!

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 8/19/2023 at 1:02 PM, David Marsh said:

I could see some flips happen closer to December. Oregon's NIL doesn't get into a bidding war until December because it just raises the price needlessly early. 

 

I think Oregon could probably flip Rushing for two reasons... The Big 12 and the B1G are going to be two completely beasts next year and the B1G is going to be the better league with far more visibility.

 

Guess who goes on Fox and who goes on FS1? It's a no brainer. 

 

Also for Rushing I think Oregon opens up the purse strings a little and might get closer to the Arizona offer. Those two things might encourage a flip. 

 

Baker has enjoyed the recruiting game and Nebraska is really feeling like TAMU of this cycle. They got themselves a coach they like and now their NIL is throwing as much money as possible at recruits to get him players. 

 

I do believe Oregon has one of the best handles on how to work NIL. But they are also working with a longer term plan than some of these other teams. Oregon's NIL will not over pay for high school recruits but will have the resources to pay for transfer portal players. 

 

Remember Oregon got some big offensive linemen that were highly coveted in the transfer portal last cycle and don't forget Burch who was also covered. 

 

Sure... Other teams "beat" Oregon in transfer portal rankings but I don't think anyone really beat Oregon in getting high quality trench players. And Oregon got the pieces needed on the roster. 

 

Whatever we can't fill via recruiting high schooler, I am confident in this staff's ability to fill via the transfer portal. 

 

Going to also need Lanning to prove himself for another year as a head coach to convince some parents and athletes. 

 

Great take, David. And, your team and games will be covered wall-to-wall by the B1G Network (closing in on 60M subscribers) and not the Yormark Wannabe Network. Down the road, the B1G will not implode. The B12?

[David Marsh]

On 8/19/2023 at 11:28 AM, Jon Joseph said:

the B1G will not implode. The B12?

I think the ACC gets gutted next. 

 

And there are the big 2 with the B1G and SEC. And then the little 1-2 with the Big 12 and ACC with what remains. 

 

The little two will have some access to the playoff (which is the driving force in all of this) but they would certainly be a second rate group of teams. 

 

Especially if paying players directly comes to pass which of probably will. The little two won't have the money to compete with the big 2. 

[Haywarduck]

The two things I am looking at this season and next are the qb situation and how the team travels. These two items will drive recruiting and the program.

 

First off Nix has to stay on track or improve. We then need to see the next guy step up. If not then the Oregon qb magic isn't there and that drives the program. From Marcus to Justin,  and before, Oregon has been a qb school. Stein needs to polish Nix and have the next guy ready. 

 

If this doesn't happen the Oregon brand gets damaged and the desire of tv to broadcast, and recruits wanting to come wains. We need to have excellent qb play going forward.

 

The other item is to play on the road with energy and a comfort level few programs have. The game in Lubbock, then Seattle and finally SLC will be huge tests where we need to meet and exceed expectations.

 

If we don't show strength on the road this season, next season will be brutal. If you look at what the BIG did to UCLA and SC's 2024 schedule I bet they do the same to Oregon. Next season will be even more travel, and the program will suffer if we don't show strength on the road.

 

If we lose on the road this will be used against us in recruiting. It can be a strength with the exposure, but losing doesn't help anything. We need to show we can thump TT and others and make our future road trips look doable. If not the whole BIG thing might not be all everyone is thinking it will be.

 

I say we will be fine and recruiting under Lanning will continue to exceed expectations. I will be looking to see if these two items also exceed expectations, because without it we have a pretty big headwind going forward even Lanning might have a little stutter step with.

[CountryProf]

I honestly think Nix doesn't need more polish. If he gets more, that would be great. He definitely needs to have a healthy right ankle so he

 

can firmly plant that right foot and get his completion percentage back to that 70% plus mark and throw those accurate long bombs , and solid o-line protection.

 

I'm worried about the backup quarterback situation and quarterbacks moving forward.

 

Ty Thompson obviously hasn't looked good, but then he's only had one year where he hasn't played under Mario's no development coaching staff.

 

It looks like we have some incredible talent coming in, but obviously no one with a level of experience that can create a Field General like Bo out of the gates.

 

Then again, this is all business as usual in college football. The great experienced players graduate, we get new players in, and we wait to see what happens.

[Haywarduck]

On 8/19/2023 at 1:40 PM, CountryProf said:

I honestly think Nix doesn't need more polish. If he gets more, that would be great. He definitely needs to have a healthy right ankle so he

 

can firmly plant that right foot and get his completion percentage back to that 70% plus mark and throw those accurate long bombs , and solid o-line protection.

 

I'm worried about the backup quarterback situation and quarterbacks moving forward.

 

Ty Thompson obviously hasn't looked good, but then he's only had one year where he hasn't played under Mario's no development coaching staff.

 

It looks like we have some incredible talent coming in, but obviously no one with a level of experience that can create a Field General like Bo out of the gates.

 

Then again, this is all business as usual in college football. The great experienced players graduate, we get new players in, and we wait to see what happens.

Maybe the beav game was on Dilly and his focus on the devil, but Nix has to be able to beat the beavs, or any rival. I also think Stein needs to show he can develop a qb, and have him ready for the NFL.

 

Stein needs to show he can finish the job of developing a qb, and get one, or more ready for the college level. This is the standard at Oregon I expect.

 

Agree Stein needs to help stop Ty's head from spinning after all he has been through, or hatch Novasad into a serviceable qb quick.

 

 

[1Funduck]

12 out of 31. Thats how many 1st round picks were 'Ranked' outside of the top 250 on Rivals coming out of High School. That tells me that you must be a great evaluater of talent. Also, these kids need all their years in college to make it. 

 

To your question Fish, I've always felt we would garner 1-2 5* this year. I dreamed of 4 or 5. But, if you lace this squad with top 10 talent in their position, then they are going to mature into mountainous beings. Transfer portal brings the key pieces. 

 

Another thing, I would keep the NIL money going to the high 4* and add the Portal Transfer that blossoms late. QB anyone?

[Jon Joseph]

On 8/19/2023 at 3:35 PM, Haywarduck said:

The two things I am looking at this season and next are the qb situation and how the team travels. These two items will drive recruiting and the program.

 

First off Nix has to stay on track or improve. We then need to see the next guy step up. If not then the Oregon qb magic isn't there and that drives the program. From Marcus to Justin,  and before, Oregon has been a qb school. Stein needs to polish Nix and have the next guy ready. 

 

If this doesn't happen the Oregon brand gets damaged and the desire of tv to broadcast, and recruits wanting to come wains. We need to have excellent qb play going forward.

 

The other item is to play on the road with energy and a comfort level few programs have. The game in Lubbock, then Seattle and finally SLC will be huge tests where we need to meet and exceed expectations.

 

If we don't show strength on the road this season, next season will be brutal. If you look at what the BIG did to UCLA and SC's 2024 schedule I bet they do the same to Oregon. Next season will be even more travel, and the program will suffer if we don't show strength on the road.

 

If we lose on the road this will be used against us in recruiting. It can be a strength with the exposure, but losing doesn't help anything. We need to show we can thump TT and others and make our future road trips look doable. If not the whole BIG thing might not be all everyone is thinking it will be.

 

I say we will be fine and recruiting under Lanning will continue to exceed expectations. I will be looking to see if these two items also exceed expectations, because without it we have a pretty big headwind going forward even Lanning might have a little stutter step with.

Interesting the way in which the schedule breaks down. Oregon gets Portland State at home in week 1 while TX Tech has a fairly long trip and will be playing Wyoming in Laramie at altitude.

 

Also interesting that Oregon plays at UW on 10/14 with both teams coming off of an idle week. Oregon plays Cal on 10/21 before tripping to Utah while the Utes come off a game at SC. On paper, that's a tougher 2 weeks back-to-back than the Ducks will face.

[OhioDuck]

With all the questions around the PAC, and any (if there actually was) questions about Lanning, I would have understood if some players had decommitted.

 

That there wasn't mass exodus, or even a small one is a credit to the staff.

 

Joining the B1G will help, but maybe not right away. I think the future holds consistent top 5  recruiting years. 

 

Now that things are more settled, there may be a flip or two. 

[1Funduck]

And, we have already achieved one transfer due to conference realignment.

[DanLduck]

Baker's comment about Nebraska having "turning it around" seems very strange to me. 

They've been horrible for years!

 

I hope Dan & Co. can reel him in still.

 

With NIL as it is, I don't know what to think about the blue-chip players...

I'm glad Oregon isn't planning to get in a bidding war.

Personally, I think kids who want/demand the $$ now, don't have the heart/character to do the work to develop. 

 

I too believe joining the B1G will only help us in recruiting battles.