Here's How: Oregon CAN Lose to Cal

[Charles Fischer]

I do not like the 24.5 point betting spread at all. I am also seeing fans puff up and write hyperbole and shutting down Cal and winning by a boatload.  Yes, that could happen, but I wish to warn you of how Cal could win, and why Oregon needs to bring their "A" game.

 

Cal changed QBs to Fernando Mendoza three games back and they scored 40 on Oregon State, (whoa!) 14 on Utah, and 49 on USC.  That is an average of 34 points per game, and that is enough to win on a rainy day at Autzen. Keep in mind that he is a freshman with a gun-slinging-no-downside attitude, who is clearly taking off with good skills. He can throw quick bullet passes...

 

What bothers me is that Cal now runs a heavy RPO offense with a new OC, thus on every play--the defense can be wrong if the QB makes the right decision, and he has been choosing well. It also takes a great running back, and damn...Cal has one in Jaydn Ott, who is averaging over 100 yards rushing a game in this RPO offense.

 

I know the USC defense is porous, but Mendoza ran for two TDs, passed for two TDs, and nearly 300 yards passing? Isn't that a confidence builder?

 

The biggest challenge?  Cal runs a very fast tempo offense, that has more plays than anyone in the Pac-12. This creates mistakes by the defense, and we are not always set on defense as the play begins as it is.

 

                               Fernando Mendoza

 

This young QB has had eight turnovers in the three games, and USC turned theirs into three touchdowns. What if Cal solves that issue and does not turn the ball over on Saturday?

 

Cal's defense is not good; they have given up 34 scores in the Red Zone on 36 trips, thus I would project a ton of blitzing as a desperation defense versus Oregon.  That could create mistakes and turnovers from the Ducks.

 

Yes, I know it is a stretch, but teams on offense such as Oregon do have a bad day.  They drive but don't score much due to mistakes or kick field goals.  Meanwhile Cal is scoring, and we have to score a ton of points to beat them, IMHO.

 

Yes, everything would have to line up for Cal to pull the upset, but this stuff does happen to Oregon.  And Cal can score tons, and has nothing to lose...

 

 

[Mic]

On 11/2/2023 at 10:05 AM, Charles Fischer said:

I do not like the 24.5 point betting spread at all. I am also seeing fans puff up and write hyperbole and shutting down Cal and winning by a boatload.  Yes, that could happen, but I wish to warn you of how Cal could win, and why Oregon needs to bring their "A" game.

 

Cal changed QBs to Fernando Mendoza three games back and they scored 40 on Oregon State, (whoa!) 14 on Utah, and 49 on USC.  That is an average of 34 points per game, and that is enough to win on a rainy day at Autzen. Keep in mind that he is a freshman with a gun-slinging-no-downside attitude, who is clearly taking off with good skills. He can throw quick bullet passes...

 

What bothers me is that Cal now runs a heavy RPO offense with a new OC, thus on every play--the defense can be wrong if the QB makes the right decision, and he has been choosing well. It also takes a great running back, and damn...Cal has one in Jaydn Ott, who is averaging over 100 yards rushing a game in this RPO offense.

 

I know the USC defense is porous, but Mendoza ran for two TDs, passed for two TDs, and nearly 300 yards passing? Is that a confidence builder?

 

The biggest challenge?  Cal runs a very fast tempo offense, that has more plays than anyone in the Pac-12. This creates mistakes by the defense, and we are not always set on defense as the play begins as it is.

 

                               Fernando Mendoza

 

This young QB has had eight turnovers in the three games, and USC turned theirs into three touchdowns. What if Cal solves that issue and does not turn the ball over on Saturday?

 

Cal's defense is not good; they have given up 34 scores in the Red Zone on 36 trips, thus I would project a ton of blitzing as a desperation defense versus Oregon.  That could create mistakes and turnovers from the Ducks.

 

Yes, I know it is a stretch, but teams on offense such as Oregon do have a bad day.  They drive but don't score much due to mistakes or kick field goals.  Meanwhile Cal is scoring, and we have to score a ton of points to beat them, IMHO.

 

Yes, everything would have to line up for Cal to pull the upset, but this stuff does happen to Oregon.  And Cal can score tons, and has nothing to lose...

 

I couldn't agree with you more, Charles.  My feelings exactly.  In fact, elsewhere on the forum I made mention that in the the event Ty Thompson were not to work out for Oregon next season (let's hope he does!) then I wouldn't mind seeing Mendoza make the transfer to Oregon.  He's just the type of QB that I think Dan and Co. could build into a great QB.  At least I think so.  GO OREGON!

[Chas Man]

As you say, it could happen! I calm my anxious thoughts by reminding myself that DL is our head coach, and he seems to like winning even more than we do!

 

Go Ducks-play to YOUR standard,

[KCDuck1]

On 11/2/2023 at 12:14 PM, Mic said:

"In fact, elsewhere on the forum I made mention that in the the event Ty Thompson were not to work out for Oregon next season (let's hope he does!) then I wouldn't mind seeing Mendoza make the transfer to Oregon.  He's just the type of QB that I think Dan and Co. could build into a great QB.  At least I think so.  GO OREGON!"

Mr. Fishduck and Mic, Cal Vs Oregon is a trap game. Don't look past the Bears team. If you recall the year the Ducks went 12-0 and Chip took us to the Natl Championship game against Auburn, our Ducks had the darndest time at California. I recall we may have had a punt return or kickoff return TD by our terrific CB from the Fresno area, but not a lot otherwise. Our Ducks have seemed to have problems often with Cal, with putting Cal away; we have often won, but it was hard work all the way. But, it's that way with every team until it isn't.

 

As Mr. Fishduck emphasized, Cal has an explosive offense with a very good RB. They have had OLine problems the last few years, but they have a reasonably good DLine, some linebackers that can stick-it, and Receivers that can catch a ball that is threaded through small openings. Their QB is very good, and not just because he is a first-year player - he's good, and he does not quit! These Bears are not going to roll-over and giveup.

 

Be tough-minded, and be ready for them. The Bears QB gets rid of that ball fast, and their team hasn't experienced Ducks tackling before. The Ducks' road to a Pac-12 Championship goes through Cal.

 

Play for the Brotherhood! Fight Ducks, Fight! Win Ducks, Win!

KCDuck1

[Solar]

On 11/2/2023 at 11:23 AM, KCDuck1 said:

Mr. Fishduck and Mic, Cal Vs Oregon is a trap game. Don't look past the Bears team. If you recall the year the Ducks went 12-0 and Chip took us to the Natl Championship game against Auburn, our Ducks had the darndest time at California. I recall we may have had a punt return or kickoff return TD by our terrific CB from the Fresno area, but not a lot otherwise. Our Ducks have seemed to have problems often with Cal, with putting Cal away; we have often won, but it was hard work all the way. But, it's that way with every team until it isn't.

 

As Mr. Fishduck emphasized, Cal has an explosive offense with a very good RB. They have had OLine problems the last few years, but they have a reasonably good DLine, some linebackers that can stick-it, and Receivers that can catch a ball that is threaded through small openings. Their QB is very good, and not just because he is a first-year player - he's good, and he does not quit! These Bears are not going to roll-over and giveup.

 

Be tough-minded, and be ready for them. The Bears QB gets rid of that ball fast, and their team hasn't experienced Ducks tackling before. The Ducks' road to a Pac-12 Championship goes through Cal.

 

Play for the Brotherhood! Fight Ducks, Fight! Win Ducks, Win!

KCDuck1

For that Cal game I remember there was a blown call by the ref on a critical play that kept us from losing. I remember being stunned.

 

I do believe we need to dominate every team from here on out to ensure we make the cut over 1 loss B1G and SEC teams down the stretch, so certainly hope we hit the spread.

 

I don't expect us to hit it though. Best we can hope for us a WSU type game where they get a lot of yards, but not a lot of points.

 

And we definitely need to not let the rain throw off our game plan and home field advantage.

[Mic]

One measuring stick we have is Cal's loss to Utah (34-14) the team O beat by 29.  However, even this is misleading due the fact that Mendoza wasn't the only QB in that game, sharing time with Ben Finley while Cal was still trying to figure things out at that position. Jayden Ott had only 8 rushes (of 24 total) for Cal.  But Utah did manage to score 34 points and there's that to consider.  Both games were in Utah.

 

I'm gonna guess Oregon will win this game 38-20 which is still a good win.  What I fear is if they don't cover the 24.5 points critics will try to use that against any argument for Oregon's position at #6.  I think it will fall on deaf ears.  Unless Cal seriously threatens O with a loss, Oregon just keeps on marching.

 

This is why I hate to see such wide point margins by the odds makers.  Oregon may well win by 24, maybe by 31.  But it's a lot to expect against any team in this conference, especially when the average point difference in this series (last 10 games) is 15.4.   GO OREGON!

[DanLduck]

We could also start Ty T, sit Dorlus, Kyhree, and Evan Williams, and only play Bucky for a half.

 

Yeah, it's not gonna happen. 

 

We have played up to the Oregon standard pretty much every game and not played down to any team. We may have started slow, but always played strong.

 

Colorado, Stanford and Utah all scored more than 30 pts against USuC.

Against us? Only 6. Only CU got into the endzone, and that was at the end of the game.

 

Our run defense is solid. Ott may get some yards, but not enough to beat us.

 

And while Mendoza is looking pretty good, our man Bo is playing lights out!

He is running our offense with precision and accuracy. He was 14 of 16 first half at Utah. His misses? Two drops by Troy Franklin, one a sure td. When does TF drop balls!

 

Cal is playing better at this point, but not better then our Ducks. Sure, we could potentially lose the game, I mean, that's why you play the game. But not this year.

Our guys and coaches are focused. 

One game at a time. Play to the Oregon standard. 

 

My only concern is the point spread. It seems pretty big for where Cal is at right now. And that only matters for those that bet, and those that vote. Playoff committee that is.

 

Oregon wins, but will they cover.

[Jon Joseph]

Good article up on The Mercury News (subscription required) today. Mendoza made note of the fact that growing up in Miami he is used to throwing the ball in the rain. He is not likely to be affected by the rain as was Jared Goff who had a horrible game in the slop (it never rains, right) in Autzen. And Ott is a very good RB who could do some damage on the ground.

 

-24 is a stretch IMO. I think Stein in light of the weather will go heavy with the run game to shorten the game. If the OL plays as well as it has all season, Cal could have very few possessions in this game.

 

If I was going to bet this game I'd bet Under 57.5. But because this wager would want me to cheer for Oregon holding the score down. I am not wagering.

 

FWIW - Oregon is 6-1-1 ATS this season. The late WSU score blew the cover at home.

 

Do not get trapped looking ahead to a visit from Caleb.

[Log Haulin]

When the camera is aimed at Nix before the game. Look in his eyes and it will tell you how this game is going to go. As Nix goes this team follows

[Drake]

The game will be won at the line of scrimmage.
 

Anyone see our depth on both sides of the line giving Cal a chance? Turnovers by the Ducks will be the only thing that would keep this game close.
 

There is a reason that the Ducks are favored and the people who create the betting lines are not in the habit of losing their clients huge sums of money by creating unrealistic spreads. 

[1Funduck]

I would respectfully disagree. Oregons defense is like 'Nothing' I have ever seen. Never! They have taken an offense that slung it to beat U$C in Utah and completely dismantled them. They have taken a relatively strong powered offense in Colorado and eliminated it. WSU? The score wasn't that close as the end portrayed itself. 

 

Don't let Cal's offensive eruption against U$C lull you into an apprehensive position for this week's game. U$C has no defense. And it gets worse with a high powered opposing offense. 

 

Oregon is going to erupt on Cal. Cal is NO Utah. They won't stop Oregon at 35 points. 24 points is about right. If so, Cal will have done what 3 teams failed to do. Score 7 points. 3 meaningful drives is about right for CAL. 7 for Oregon sounds about right as well. 

 

Oregon 41

CAL 17

 

It could be even worse.

 

Oregon  45

CAL.      13

Edited November 2, 2023 by 1Funduck

[SmithRiverDuck]

I haven't added much to the discussion this season, mostly because everyone has been so spot on with their posts and speaking my exact thoughts. Great job everyone!

 

I will say that I have a quiet confidence in this group that I've only felt twice before.  Well, three times really, but Dennis Dixon's ACL had other ideas.........

[JDuck]

I agree, trap game potential, ASU on the road too.  We'll be ready for the final CW and the beevz, and USuC, and (hopefully) mutts rematch in Vegas.  But I'm going to say Oregon 60, Cal 10.  Feed off the SLC intensity

[David Marsh]

Best way to slow down fast tempo offenses... 

 

Control the line of scrimmage ... Especially against run first offense which is what Cal is... Everything starts with Ott, contain him and the offense slows down. 

 

Follow up with some QB pressures and sacks... Which Oregon should do with their defensive front and that will slow the game down. 

 

Cal either goes 3 and out real fast. And we see something akin to what Stanford did to Oregon last decade but with far more scoring ... 

 

Or Cal has to put together long sustained drives that way clock... Which may not end in points against this Oregon team which will turn around and put points up and put pressure on Cal's QB to make big plays... He can do it... But our defense isn't USCs. 

[Jon Joseph]

He missed last week and Cal LB Jackson Sirmon is out for the season with a torn labrum.

 

2 teams back-to-back missing its best LB.

[Log Haulin]

Oregon has the best QB in the country. Cal has a very young inexperienced QB. Bucky is better than Ott, Ott has 24 more carries for 22 more yards than Bucky. Both with 8 TDs, "better" might be a stretch due to the difference in O line quality. Then there is Franklin.

 

But where this game is won is in the trenches and Oregon Dominates on both sides of the ball. Scheme all you want but in the end it's all about Jimmy's and Joe's. And Ducks have some Dudes.

 

Oregon LB play has taken another step up. Bassa will probably spy Ott and Jacobs will play pass rush and QB. I think Lupoi should flip that and use JJ to spy Ott. Otts a big dude. But Bassa is a better defender in the pass D. So having Bassa defend Ott when he leaks is probably a good idea.

 

All of this is just me "pondering". But imo, Cal doesn't come close in this one. I wouldn't be surprised if Ducks hold Cal to 6 or fewer. 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

JJ here. I can neither confirm nor deny that was a spy. 

 

Is there $ in it?

[Dr Hilarius]

On 11/2/2023 at 1:18 PM, SmithRiverDuck said:

I will say that I have a quiet confidence in this group that I've only felt twice before

I don’t think I have EVER felt as confident about OBD as I do this year.

 

Seeing how many players are in the defensive rotation is mind-boggling, and we have the #11 scoring D in the country while playing many high-scoring Os! Wow!

 

Our QB is in the Heisman top-5 and has the NCAA record for number of starts.

 

We have the #1 center in the country!!

 

The OL is #2 in the country in sacks allowed.

 

We are the #9 rushing offense with the #6 YPC RB.

 

We have 3 solid WRs who block with 1 on the Biletnikoff list. And we have the #10 passing offense.

 

We have 3 solid TEs who block.

 

We are #2 in total offense and #3 in scoring offense.

 

We are 6-1-1 ATS.

 

In the 30 years I have been paying attention to OBD, we have had some of these pieces but never all on the same team.

 

This team is different. Frankly, this is a top-tier SEC team.

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 11/2/2023 at 5:49 PM, Dr Hilarius said:

I don’t think I have EVER felt as confident about OBD as I do this year.

 

Seeing how many players are in the defensive rotation is mind-boggling, and we have the #11 scoring D in the country while playing many high-scoring Os! Wow!

 

Our QB is in the Heisman top-5 and has the NCAA record for number of starts.

 

We have the #1 center in the country!!

 

The OL is #2 in the country in sacks allowed.

 

We are the #9 rushing offense with the #6 YPC RB.

 

We have 3 solid WRs who block with 1 on the Biletnikoff list. And we have the #10 passing offense.

 

We have 3 solid TEs who block.

 

We are #2 in total offense and #3 in scoring offense.

 

We are 6-1-1 ATS.

 

In the 30 years I have been paying attention to OBD, we have had some of these pieces but never all on the same team.

 

This team is different. Frankly, this is a top-tier SEC team.

 

[1Ducker1]

Could Oregon lose to CAL? Do pigs fly? Do my cats contribute to the bills? WE CANT LOSE TO CAL.

[EastBayDuckDad]

On 11/3/2023 at 1:49 AM, Dr Hilarius said:

In the 30 years I have been paying attention to OBD, we have had some of these pieces but never all on the same team.

What the 2022 team lacked was a solid top 30 or 40 defense. It was good against the run until that ghastly OSU game. It had its problems with teams that could wing it all year.

 

The difference this year is a stingy, nasty and opportunistic defense that comes at you in waves with not a lot of drop off between the 1s and 2s. Stopping the elite arms and WRs in the Pac-12 is still a concern, but it has been for every defense. The only combination that got behind the Oregon secondary and swung a game was Penix-Odunze.

 

A defense that held Colorado,  Stanford and Utah to six points. Let that one sink in for a second. Two of three were away games. Those teams put up way bigger numbers on other competition.

 

The key in each game was getting up by a few scores then forcing the opponent to play catch up. Into the teeth of a defense that simply shut them down. That is what is different from previous years, including 2014 and 2019. An offensive juggernaut paired with a stifling defense. 

 

Yeah, Oregon could lose to Cal. It would take a series of unfortunate events. A few turnovers, injuries to essential players like Bo or JPJ, blown assignments and coverages on defense or lightning striking the Oregon bench.

 

The game should ultimately hinge on what almost every one does: match-ups and personnel. Oregon has the advantage almost across the board. The three and a half touchdown spread is an acknowledgment of that fact. The Ducks just need to do what they've been doing. Play in the moment, execute the game plan and continue this very special season.

 

 

[Babyjesus615]

Not a trap game this year. Oregon has done quite well at disrupting inexperienced QBs all season (Shedeur Sanders, Bryson Barnes). This Cal offense, though RPO heavy and quick, relies heavily on their run game to set up the pass game. Just as defenses did to the fast Oregon teams of the mid-2000s, containing the run game at the line of scrimmage will be paramount.

 

Limit Jayden Ott to 75 rush yards or less and this QB will be forced to try his luck through the air. I'll take our secondary matching up with Cal's receivers any day. We have shown the skillset to consistently rush 3 (4 maximum) while keeping a spy on the QB. If we can create containment that severely limits a QB who likes to take off with the ball, he will again be forced into passing down situations that we are starting to thrive in.

 

I have nothing to say about our offense except if (I mean when) we go up big we need to get Bucky, Troy, and Bo out of the game!

 

 

[Mic]

On 11/3/2023 at 9:21 AM, Babyjesus615 said:

Not a trap game this year.

Lanning has proven a number of things to fans since coming to Eugene, not the least of which is his ability to consistently motivate this team to perform each week.  With Lanning, "trap games" might very well be a thing of the past for Oregon and I mean this sincerely.  Great teams don't fall into 'traps' and I don't ever see Oregon falling into them either.  You are 100% right on this Baby. 

[fred flintstone]

As everyone that knows anything about sports knows.....take them one game at a time......and respect every team. 

 

[Mic]

On 11/3/2023 at 10:34 AM, fred flintstone said:

As everyone that knows anything about sports knows.....take them one game at a time......and respect every team. 

 

I'm reminded of that Playoff Series when the Yankees (my favorite MLB team) led the Boston Red Sox 3-0 before Boston came back and won 4 in a row to take the Pennant.  Of course, this had nothing to do with 'trap games' but it does illustrate your point about one game at a time.

 

However, I'm still not sure the Red Sox exhibit much 'respect' for the Yankees - or vice versa!  (speaking facetiously, of course).  

[Haywarduck]

Ok, I'll bite. Here is the way Cal can win a game, so we don't want it close.

 

 

 

[Log Haulin]

On 11/3/2023 at 9:21 AM, Babyjesus615 said:

Limit Jayden Ott to 75 rush yards or less...

This should be first priority. This is what I will be looking for as the game plays out. 

 

Ducks have the backers to shut down Ott, plus Evan Williams. The D line is nasty and deep.

 

Want to see the D get better regardless of competition level. The Ducks are a very good team. Cal isn't in the same stratosphere as Oregon.

 

I said in another thread, there is a different vibe to Oregon I have never experienced as a Duck fan.

 

Imo, Ducks run the table and make the playoff. Fusky got lucky and the country knows it. If Ducks had won that game they'd be #1 in CFP.

[1Ducker1]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:41 PM, Log Haulin said:

This should be first priority. This is what I will be looking for as the game plays out. 

 

Ducks have the backers to shut down Ott, plus Evan Williams. The D line is nasty and deep.

 

Want to see the D get better regardless of competition level. The Ducks are a very good team. Cal isn't in the same stratosphere as Oregon.

 

I said in another thread, there is a different vibe to Oregon I have never experienced as a Duck fan.

 

Imo, Ducks run the table and make the playoff. Fusky got lucky and the country knows it. If Ducks had won that game they'd be #1 in CFP.

The Vibe you speak of is DEPTH in every position except QB?, Maybe even there too.

[Jon Joseph]

Mic, 1986, the Sox came back from 0-3 vs. the Yankees. But lost to the Mets. Another blankity - blank team from New York. Bill Buckner. SIGH.

 

In 1984 after 86 years was the redemption tour for the Olde Towne Team.

 

How could anyone cheer on George Steinbrenner?

 

That's like rooting for Jeff Bezos to make more money. Kidding! Probably the greatest rivalry in MLB.

 

I am blessed to have seen The Mick, Roger Maris, and Teddy Ball Game play in Fenway Park.

 

In the B1G, I think Ducks baseball will thrive.

 

BTW - You cannot get a decent bowl of clam chowdah in NYC.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[1Ducker1]

I love my Mets--What can I say?

[Mic]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:58 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

The Vibe you speak of is DEPTH in every position except QB?, Maybe even there too.

I'm not at all certain Oregon is the same team without Bo running the offense.  Will Stein is proving himself an outstanding Offensive mind but he only schemes the offense, designs plays, figures out how to attack each team's weak points.  Bo is the one running the schemes, calling the audibles, making Stein's plays work.  

 

It's one thing to design a play.  It's quite another to run & execute it.  We've not yet seen if our 5* Junior can do this in a whole game or when a big game is seriously on the line.  So no, in my opinion we can't yet say we have real 'depth' at the crucial position of team QB.  I wish we could.

[Mic]

On 11/3/2023 at 6:25 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Mic, 1986, the Sox came back from 0-3 vs. the Yankees. But lost to the Mets. Another blankity - blank team from New York. Bill Buckner. SIGH.

 

BTW - You cannot get a decent bowl of clam chowdah in NYC.

Maybe not but the Babe, the Mic, the Clipper, Yogi and the Jeter/Rivera duo made things fun for a lot of years and the only part of NY I ever longed to see.  I hear the pizza there's pretty good, tho.