The betting line has Oregon as a slight favorite at -1.5. It’s the lowest point spread of any of the remaining playoff games which makes sense in a 4 vs 5 game. What surprised me was that every other playoff game has a point spread of a TD or better.

Tech has a nasty defense, but their offense is just as good. They’re top 5 in total offense. However, they haven’t played against a top 20 defense yet. BYU (28th) was the best defense they played against. They played against one top 20 offense (Utah) and handled them easily.

Oregon’s offense has been tested against three top 20 defenses (Indiana, Iowa, fuskies), but only played against two top 20 offenses (USC, Indiana).

Honestly, after watching the James Madison game, I feel good about Oregon, but I’m not walking into the Texas Tech game acting like it’s a lock or anything. The offense clearly can score and they don’t really panic when stuff isn’t perfect, which is huge in a playoff game, but at the same time the defense gave up way too much for my liking.

Against JMU you can survive that. Against Texas Tech, those mistakes turn into real problems fast. Tech’s defense is legit and they’re not going to give Oregon anything easy, so if the Ducks get impatient or start pressing early, this could turn into one of those games where you’re just uncomfortable the whole night.

On the flip side, if Oregon stays balanced and doesn’t do anything dumb, they’re going to move the ball eventually because they always do. I think Oregon wins if they keep it clean and make Texas Tech earn everything, but if Tech controls the tempo and steals a turnover or two, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Oregon is the one chasing the game late. It really just feels like one of those playoff matchups where whoever blinks first probably loses.

I think Tech will have the crowd advantage. They’re going to bring a lot of fans because they haven’t played in a major bowl game as a conference champion since 1995. They’re also Texans, so they’re genetically predisposed to spending a lot of money to go watch football. However, the Ducks seem to have a good plan in place for crowd noise as we saw in a few games this season.

I get the crowd point, and Tech fans will definitely show up, but I don’t think that’s going to decide this game. As long as they stay disciplined and don’t make it harder than it needs to be, the noise is just background. At the end of the day it still comes down to execution. If Oregon plays clean football, the crowd won’t matter much. If they don’t, then it won’t matter who’s in the stands anyway. DL and company have a lot to clean up in the next week and a half.

Oregon has played better away than at home this year, so the TT crowd might actually be advantage Ducks.

Hostile environment favors us, we clearly lose steam when there's no pressure, I'm sure Dan could use that metaphor or something similar as the message. Create your own steam because this Tech team is legit. The RBs have a mix of power and speed like Davison for us and the WRs make contested catches pretty often.

The defense scared me before watching the tape, but they seem really vulnerable to misdirection. If you can get crossing routes to flow against the pass rush you can hit big plays, Utah and Dilly did it multiple times. That Utah game was closer than the score and gave me hope that we can move the ball. Our defense is actually what concerns me, these Tech backs can run for 5 or 6 yards after contact if Flowers or Dillon are the first to arrive.

Flowers continues to miss open field tackles and that can hurt us against this team especially since Morton can run well. I think this looks a lot like our 2023 match-up, down to the last possession.

Thank you, Doctor.

The line is set close to a Pick 'Em. Despite the hyperbolic title of the linked article (🤪shocking, right?), the only message the early lines speak to is, 'Balance the Book!' The below referenced book has Texas Tech -1.5.

This will be the first time this season that Joey McGuire and his Red Raiders match up against a team with a Blue Chip Roster and also a team that was in the portal pickers' top 5. Texas Tech will not have the roster advantage it had in all 13 games played before 1/1/26.

TT played one game in the Eastern time zone this season, destroying West Virginia 49-0.

TT and OBD shared one opponent this season, both played Beavis at home: OBD 41-7, TT 45-14.

TT did have two impressive wins against BYU, scored often in the 4th quarter to win decisively over turnover-prone Utah in SLC, and lost at ASU behind its backup QB when Sun Devils QB Sam Leavitt was healthy.

One of the wins over BYU was in Lubbock, and the other came in Arlington, Texas, where the Dallas Cowboys roam.

Ohio State in the Cotton and not the Orange Bowl? Did the Buckeyes have their choice after Big Ten champ, Indiana, won the right to play in the Rose Bowl?

If so, with Miami's win over A&M, Brutus got lucky on two fronts. No game against Miami, a team that does not travel well, in Miami's home stadium, and no A&M in Dallas. (Why do the Luckeyes get all of these postseason breaks?)

I agree with above comments that TT will have the majority of fans in the Hard Rock Stadium on the 1st, I expect TOSU fans will take over Jerry's Joint.

I hope Indiana and its fans, that have not visited Pasadena since 1968, can find the stadium? Grand Pa Duck could get his wish of playing Bama, but in Atlanta? No thanks. However, I don't think Cig's guys will help the Tide Roll Sooner than later.

9 AM body clock kickoff for OBD and fans, but no team has done better playing two or more time zones away from home than Danny and the Ducks.

FWIW, my buddies and I have OBD +1.5. It should be a terrific game.

Lasso the Tortillas!

Oddsmakers send a clear message about Texas Tech, Oregon with Orange Bowl line

Good thing it’s a bowl game. Oregon probably shows up on Saturday or Sunday and gets a few days to adjust to the time zone.

2 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

I have OBD +1.5.

I'm hoping that gets greased with oil money closer to kickoff and get more.

2 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

9 AM body clock kickoff for OBD

So, you're saying we get to eat Tech for BFast? Over easy (and early) please.

OBD and TX Tech Game and Team Info.

NOTE - OBD Strength-of-Schedule 16th - Texas Tech 54th.

FanSided

Oregon vs. Texas Tech preview in 5 minutes: Fast facts, p...

The Oregon and Texas Tech have played just three times, the Ducks winning each meeting. The fourth time has a College Football Playoff semifinals berth at stake

After seeing Oregon give up 509 yards, and 2 TO's, to... wait for it -- JMU, Texas Tech must be eager to play the Ducks.

Edited Sunday at 11:44 PM1 day by Desert Duck

Texas Tech needs to be careful what they wish for! They are a high quality team that had a middle of the pack SOS.

OBD's are the ASU Sundevils on steroids. The Red Raiders have not played a Blue Chip roster, 2 deep, battle tested kike OBD's .

As other posters noted, the Ducks must play clean, disciplined football in all 3 phases and all 60 minutes.

TT is not tOSU, IU or PSU in a white out.

OBD's moved the ball all game against IU until WS got impatient in the 4th quarter. The Ducks lost because they made mistakes. TT is not on IU's level but TT will beat you if you make mistakea.

DL and the staff will have the best balanced squad ready to go in Miami.

Go Ducks.......

Four not to be ignored. I'm hoping OBD, TOSU, and Indiana will all start the New Year right with B1G wins. 🤑

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football/breaking-news/article/college-football-playoff-a-quick-look-at-the-four-quarterfinal-matchups-that-will-ring-in-2026-043913463.html

I don’t know how I feel about being the first game of the day. A loss ruins the rest of the day. Last year I didn’t feel like watching football after the Rose Bowl. Fate dictated that the Sugar Bowl was postponed, but I likely wouldn’t have watched it anyway.

Early random thoughts on the Texas Tech game.

• Texas Tech is going to be coming off 25 days off, which probably means rust, at least in the first half. The 4 bye teams last year trailed at half by 10, 10, 14, and 26.

• I am just not totally sure the B12 overall had a strong year. After Utah, BYU twice were their next two biggest wins and BYU was picked to finish 9th in the preseason poll. Sometimes that jump is totally legit and sometimes it is because most of the conference was expected to be good and wasn't. Someone has to finish 3-5. I watched Houston against Oregon State and the teams looked pretty even. They finished forth. Arizona finished 5th and well, it's still post-Fisch Arizona. Utah I think was very solid but they averaged 41 points a game? 41? I think they were beating up on some JAG conference opponents.

247 has a total team roster talent composition rating and ASU was overall #33, Utah #44, and BYU #70. Arizona was #67 and Houston #66. Oregon sits at #5.

• Going to be a lot of talk about their D this week. TT loses to ASU and all we hear is their QB was out and that is fair; but, Tech actually took the lead 22-19, and were kicking off with 2 minutes left in the game. They get their 1985 Chicago Bears defense on the field to end the game. ASU goes 10 plays and 75 yards in 1:25 to take back the lead. In the drive TT gets ASU into a 4th and 2 with 0:55 seconds left for a walk-off win. Leavitt completes 33 yards to Tyson instead. Holding them to a FG means OT. ASU instead scores a TD to win 26-22.

• I do expect a close game.

Edited yesterday at 02:52 AM1 day by AnotherOD

Tech has the same problem that Oregon had last year - sitting out the first round while their opponent got a warm up game.

Now Tech has to play against better players, just like Oregon did vs Ohio St last yr in the playoffs.

I see an exact replay of the situation last year. Can't see it any differently. Just hope Lanning doesn't go aggro and get a bunch of players hurt in practice.

Only semi-real teams Tech played so far are Utah and BYU. And they lost to Az St. I don't think Tech is ready to play Oregon.

Although at this point, I think they could beat the crap out of our backups.

30 minutes ago, AnotherOD said:

Early random thoughts on the Texas Tech game.

• Texas Tech is going to be coming off 25 days off, which probably means rust, at least in the first half. The 4 bye teams last year trailed at half by 10, 10, 14, and 26.

• I am just not totally sure the B12 overall had a strong year. After Utah, BYU twice were their next two biggest wins and BYU was picked to finish 9th in the preseason poll. Sometimes that jump is totally legit and sometimes it is because most of the conference was expected to be good and wasn't. Someone has to finish 3-5. I watched Houston against Oregon State and the teams looked pretty even. They finished forth. Arizona finished 5th and well, it's still post-Fisch Arizona. Utah I think was very solid but they averaged 41 points a game? 41? I think they were beating up on some JAG conference opponents.

247 has a total team roster talent composition rating and ASU was overall #33, Utah #44, and BYU #70. Arizona was #67 and Houston #66. Oregon sits at #5.

• Going to be a lot of talk about their D this week. TT loses to ASU and all we hear is their QB was out and that is fair; but, Tech actually took the lead 22-19, and were kicking off with 2 minutes left in the game. They get their 1985 Chicago Bears defense on the field to end the game. ASU goes 10 plays and 75 yards in 1:25 to take back the lead. In the drive TT gets ASU into a 4th and 2 with 0:55 seconds left for a walk-off win. Leavitt completes 33 yards to Tyson instead. Holding them to a FG means OT. ASU instead scores a TD to win 26-22.

• I do expect a close game.

Thanks, AOD, for the terrific post.

TX Tech played five teams with winning records this season, defeating BYU twice. TT scored 21 plus points in all of its wins.

OBD went 5-1 against teams with winning records, plus two wins over 6-6 Northwestern and Penn State.

Both teams handled a common opponent, Oregon State, with ease.

SOS - OBD 16 and TT 54. As you ask AOD, how much of TT's success was the result of playing inferior competition?

On 1/1, will Oregon face an elite defense? By the numbers, the answer is 'Yes.' The TT defense is 1st in QB pressures, and No. 1 in TOs created with 31 on the year, including four against BYU in the champ game.

Texas Tech finished the season No. 1 against the rush, allowing an average of 68.5 yards a game and 2.3 yards per rush.

In 2024 and 2025 to date, Oregon is 25-0 when rushing for 100 yards or more a game, and 0-2 when rushing for fewer than 100 yards.

If OBD cannot run the ball against TT, the Red Raiders should win the game. This should be a classic battle on the line of scrimmage.

Wreck Tech!

5 hours ago, Desert Duck said:

Texas Tech must be eager to play the Ducks.

Yep, the rope a dope has started.

Saturday Tradition Posts JMU Game Stats -

Saturday Tradition

Rapid Reaction: Oregon runs over James Madison, into CFP...

Oregon ran all over James Madison in the first half of Saturday's College Football Playoff first-round game to book a trip to the quarters.

11 hours ago, Steven A said:

Yep, the rope a dope has started.

Ah-hah! So allowing mighty JMU to put up 509 yards on our defense was our genius Rope-A-Dope plan all along.

I like it! I'm going with this and heading over to my happy place 😉.

Regardless, I am still confident that OBD will beat TT.

15 hours ago, HappyToBeADuck said:

OBD's moved the ball all game against IU until WS got impatient

Yes, and the fact that Stein seemed to have forgotten that we have a fabulous running game and abandoned it for the pass.

13 hours ago, Jon Joseph said:

Thanks, AOD, for the terrific post.

TX Tech played five teams with winning records this season, defeating BYU twice. TT scored 21 plus points in all of its wins.

OBD went 5-1 against teams with winning records, plus two wins over 6-6 Northwestern and Penn State.

Both teams handled a common opponent, Oregon State, with ease.

SOS - OBD 16 and TT 54. As you ask AOD, how much of TT's success was the result of playing inferior competition?

On 1/1, will Oregon face an elite defense? By the numbers, the answer is 'Yes.' The TT defense is 1st in QB pressures, and No. 1 in TOs created with 31 on the year, including four against BYU in the champ game.

Texas Tech finished the season No. 1 against the rush, allowing an average of 68.5 yards a game and 2.3 yards per rush.

In 2024 and 2025 to date, Oregon is 25-0 when rushing for 100 yards or more a game, and 0-2 when rushing for fewer than 100 yards.

If OBD cannot run the ball against TT, the Red Raiders should win the game. This should be a classic battle on the line of scrimmage.

Wreck Tech!

I am confident that these guys will not stop our running game.

Edited yesterday at 05:36 PM1 day by Desert Duck

38 minutes ago, Desert Duck said:

These guys will not stop our running game.

I'm hoping and betting on OBD being able to run the ball.

Utah averaged 270 yards on the ground this season; TT held the Utes to 101 rush yards.

These B12 guys will be fired up over the chance to take down a Power 2 team.

Wreck the Raiders!

3 hours ago, Desert Duck said:

Yes, and the fact that Stein seemed to have forgotten that we have a fabulous running game and abandoned it for the pass.

Glad someone else saw this too. I love Stein, hope he does well as he moves on, but sometimes he seems to brilliant for his own good. He tries complicated solutions to more simple problems. We had two backs 60+ yards at half time and no one cracked 100 for the game. We should have ended that game with 300+ rushing yards.

7 minutes ago, OhioDuck said:

Glad someone else saw this too. I love Stein, hope he does well as he moves on, but sometimes he seems to brilliant for his own good. He tries complicated solutions to more simple problems. We had two backs 60+ yards at half time and no one cracked 100 for the game. We should have ended that game with 300+ rushing yards.

Great comment with excellent data to back it up.

I’ll be there. See you in Miami, go Ducks!!!!!

6 hours ago, Desert Duck said:

Yes, and the fact that Stein seemed to have forgotten that we have a fabulous running game and abandoned it for the pass.

Fifty one points, (51!) and he still catches crap. Wowsa.

Saturday Down South evaluates the PO quarterfinals -

Saturday Down South

Early thoughts on each quarterfinal matchup of the 2025 C...

The quarterfinal matchups of the 2025 College Football Playoff are set. Here's what you should watch out for.

Fifty one points, (51!) and he still catches crap. Wowsa.

For sure.

Fact: We really have no idea what is going into the decisions of what we are going to do when. It is very possible that we did not abandon the run game because we thought it wasn't working. (Duh. Who would think that?)

Maybe they wanted to get some practice in for the receivers and Dante in a real game situation. There really are not many targets to spread around.

We don't know... but as long as we keep winning, who am I to complain???

I just honestly don’t know exactly what to think of TT. I’ve seen highlights, but I didn’t watch them play very much.

They lost to Arizona State, but it’s not like the Sun-Devils are a bad team, and it was a close game. Plus, any team is subject to have a bad game, no matter how good they are.

They won every other game in convincing fashion, but it’s not like they played a real gauntlet of a schedule. I will say that convincingly beating Utah and then BYU twice is pretty impressive, but doesn’t convince me that they are the world beaters that some are saying.

Obviously, I think the Ducks win, but I know how talented and how well the Ducks are capable of playing. With Texas Tech, I’m just not sure. I’m going to pull up and watch a few of their games before the Orange Bowl. Go Ducks!!!

Edited 15 hours ago15 hr by SoGaDawg

The offense has nothing to be disappointed about from Saturday, the defense should be ashamed about their performance, it was putrid in the second half, and the first half wasn't as good as the score would say.

What this means for the Orange Bowl, probably not a whole lot. The defense has been good for most of the year, but it is concerning that they haven't shut down a good offense yet this season. It's a defense that has feasted on bad offenses, Indiana and USC were able to accomplish a lot, I don't think TT is as good as these offenses though.

I still think we should win, but we have to be better on defense, we have to get more pressure, the run defense has to stiffen up, we have to better in every facet of the defense if we want to win the lot. I don't think we'll do it since we haven't been able to shut down a good offense yet, the offense is going to have to make up for it.

Interesting read on the Saturday Down South article. TT QB has not played much in the 4th quarter all year, and has yet had to lead a comeback.

"For what it’s worth, Morton has 211 career pass attempts in the 4th quarter, so it’s not as if a close game will be a completely foreign concept. But with this team, and specifically this play caller (Mack Leftwich), that would be a new situation if it presents itself. That’s not an ideal question mark in a Playoff quarterfinal against a Dan Lanning defense."

Not sure how you prep your QB for the nerves of a 2 minute drill, knowing which plays you want for the 2 minute drill, without having to do it all year. Just thought it was an interesting stat.

I know from reading some of the TT message boards, OBD shouldn't score more then 10 points and OBD Defense is trash so giving up 30 wouldn't be shocking. Guess thats why you play the game...

After watching atching a few TT games I'm more concerned with our offense. TTs D is fast and aggressive with lots of gang tackling and a great pass rush.

TTs Offence while effective doesn't look as dominant. From what I saw the O line allows a bit of QB pressure especially on blitz's. A lot of sloppy tackling in the championship game by BYU led to lots of yards and first downs.

JMU scoring on our D in the second half doesn't concern me. While there were some starters in, there were quite a few numbers I didn't recognize on the line and secondary.

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by Dr Hilarius
clarity

I'm both a Duck fan and a BYU fan.

If you're looking for silver linings based on how the TTU vs. BYU games went, well I've got some soothing balm for you . . . maybe, since it depends on how good you think BYU is.

Game 1: BYU hung with TTU through most of 3 quarters. They held TTU to mostly field goals. BYU has been starting a true freshman QB that is half RB and half QB (i.e., he can't pick you apart from the pocket with his arm at all). BYU depends on their QB and stud RB to establish the run to set up their passing game. BYU's RB (LJ Martin) is one of the top in the nation at YAC (yards after contact), but he was playing hurt in that game and was not effective; neither was their offense.

Game 2: Again, BYU hung with TTU through most of 3 quarters . . . and even had an early lead with opportunities to extend. However, their running-reliant QB injured his ankle/leg in the first few possessions and was limping the rest of the game. Then the self-inflicted wounds came . . . 4 turnovers (2 INTs and 2 FUMB) between late 3rd Q and end of game, all of which set up TTU deep in BYU territory, basically near or in the red zone. Even with all that fortune and field position, TTU scored the following: 1TD, 2FG, 1 missed FG.

Promise I'm not trying to make it seem like Oregon will win easy against TTU, but I also happen to think BYU was better than most give them credit for; worthy of consideration to be in the playoff (they certainly would have performed better than Tulane/JMU). As such, I consider TTU to be formidable, but beatable.

If you think BYU (and the B12) is not that good, then I hope this gives you peace, comfort, and joy in time for the holidays :)

18 hours ago, Charles Fischer said:

Fifty one points, (51!) and he still catches crap. Wowsa.

I believe we are talking about two specific and different games. Yes, 51 against JMU was fun.

But seemingly abandoning our run game against IU still seems odd to me.

However, with that being said, Stein knows about 1000x more about football than I will ever dream of knowing. Any he certainly knows more about what was going on at that time during the IU game than I do.

But, from my cheap seats, abandoning the run game against IU was strange. But I'm hopeful Stein must have had a very good reason for doing so.

And after the IU game, our running game was back and punished our opponents throughout the rest of the season.

So, with that being said, I'll rethink making comments that swim against the home town prevailing winds.

Edited 15 minutes ago15 min by Desert Duck