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Beware? The “Super-League” Future of College Football

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The arms race in college football, (CFB) has passed the point of the absurd. Case in point, Michigan State coach Mel Tucker who in three seasons has compiled a record barely over .500 and in 2022 will be paid over $9M per season. Another case in point is the case of Mario Cristobal, a head coach with a record of ...

 

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That is a stunning article. I have only one question: Re "Our Beloved Ducks" - what does "OUR" now mean?

 

To me, they are no longer players or coaches for a school, nor scholar-athletes or education leaders in any sense, but instead have become simply athletic mercenaries using a major university as a cutout.

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Five years ago i would have said you were crazy. Now though I can see that really happening.Then it stops being college football and becomes minor league football. Is the next step making high school football the new college teams. 

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Jon that is some out of the box, forward, innovative thinking. 

 

Really enjoyed the article and is one hec of a ponder topic.

 

All things are possible. One thing is for sure, it's 3:35 am and I am not gonna be able to go back to sleep. My little little sleepy brain is now fully engaged. What the Hec........

 

Here are a few thoughts and comments...........

 

Although their are many pros and cons to a Super League, money will drive the bus. Good or bad, money will drive the bus.......

 

Faculties will be overjoyed at the thought of separating themselves from athletics. After all, they know they are underpaid. Maybe more money for themselves. Whatever money the school needed to funnel into athletics could be saved an funneled for pay raises.

 

Somebody, some schools, some players, their parents and non football athletes will potentially get hurt in the process.. Aka, damages..

Did someone mention damages? Let me introduce my self, I am a lawyer with the lawfirm................

Oh do you really think we can get some money from suing for damages? Why yes, and it won't cost you any money unless we win the law suit........

 

What do you mean I have to take a pay cut to coach? I don't want to make less money. I need to hire a lawyer. How much money will that cost me?

 

Hello Mr and Mrs Smith does your son have an agent representing his best interests? I can make him alot of money.....

 

The television networks will not want to be left out of this opportunity for more money.

 

The Super League teams will want a a Pete Rozelle type commissioner to represent them in the TV negotiations. The league, it's shield and brand will command large amounts of money.

 

Pete Rozelle was the commissioner of the NFL back during the formation of Monday night football. ABC Network was shut out of NFL football. NBC and CBS had the respective AFC and NFC broadcast rights. The bidding for MNF was fierce. ABC won out. The Nielson ratings for MNF were off the charts.. ABC had no competing games.. Unlike NBC and CBS who had competing games on Sunday. ABC paid more money for the broadcast rights, sold advertising spots for more money

 

Interesting, turn of events happened when the rebids for MNF broadcast rights came open again. Roone Arledge, the producer of MNF, and the ABC executives offered the NFL less money. After all,  NBC and CBS got 2 games each week and MNF got only 1 game. Why should they pay the same amount of money  as the other 2 networks? Pete Rozelle was too sharp for that tactic. He told ABC, if you want the rights you pay the same amount of money for less games  He mentioned that if ABC wanted to continue MNF broadcasts they would have to substantially increase the bid. Why? NBC and CBS had been allowed to enter the bidding war for MNF. They were offering more money than ABC. ABC ponies up and the rest is history. 

 

I wonder how many Pete Rozelle types will be involved in the potential formation of a Super League?

 

The possibilities are too numerous to mention. Exciting, fascinating, complicated and maybe painful. 

 

Yes, Jon the landscape would change dramatically.  Eventually, top to bottom, it will seek its own level and chances are money will drive the bus.

 

Its now 5 am. I'm hungry. Sure glad some of the grandkids are here this week. Nana baked cookies.

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This is one of the more insightful articles I've read in quite some time. It touches a nerve of every single CFB fan. For or against, it doesn't matter. Everyone has an opinion. 

Pay for play is here. It's finally been unshackled. You mention Ewers getting $1 million. I sure hope that somebody from tOSU didn't pony up that cash to watch that kid move cross country. That brings/opens up a whole can of worms doesn't it? And what about a Super League? NFL involvement? University abstinence? Lottery for High School players? Unlimited Roster Counts?

 

No, IMO, you don't have a screw loose. I actually see both sides of the coin. These kids have 'Invested' most of their life to play CFB. Weekly practices. Off season training. Out of state camps. Non stop physical training for, sometimes, years in order to be playing at the highest level of CFB. So, from this stand point, I don't see a kid getting paid to play in a game that brings in $Millions of dollars for a 3-1/2 hr showing. They put their 'Investment' out for all the world to enjoy the entertainment that they personally provide.

 

Even Coaches aren't 'Solely' paid by the University. So, I struggle with any of these kids being limited in pay through their Scholarship. The NFL has a minimum salary. It won't make you rich, but it will give you a head start in life. If you live modestly you won't have to work another day in your life for a simple 3 year minimum Rookie Deal. The benefit? If you get hurt and can't play ever again, then you have been compensated enough to cover the basics for the rest of your life. It's a bit of an argument, I know, but you get the point. 

 

The other side of the coin is education takes a seat in the trunk. What's the percentage of kids who play CFB that sniff the draft, let alone play a down in the NFL? What IS going to be the percentage of kids who aren't even good enough to get the pay day NIL check? A degree has value. Getting paid through an NIL deal WILL create a lackadaisical view to education.

 

And.....why not? I'm going to hear about it from the comments, I know. But, hear me out. I personally own my own business doing manual labor my entire life. I have no College credits to my resume. I could never get a managerial job in today's climate that's worth pitting in my application for. Yet, through perseverance, I have built my business and my net worth by hard work and countless 12+hr days. I am not Rich. But, I live a more than comfortable life working about 2 days a week.

 

I've learned managerial skills and have trained a crew to do the work I've learned over the years. My point is, you don't need a college education to be successful in life, In fact, far from it. If you are willing to work, then anyone can go down to Les Schwab tire centers and go to work at any time. Within 3-5 years you can become an Assistant Manager. If you are ambitious, you can make Manager within 15 years of hiring on. The pay for an 'Uneducated' worker is around $250k+ per year. The path will be harder, sure, but it still is a path. 

 

So, education WILL get hurt. It's not the end of the world. But it is the end of CFB as we know it. The players are going to get paid before they even suit up to practice for their college school. Do you have a screw loose? I don't think so. It's a viable path that you have laid out. I truly wonder if I will be the Duck fan in 10 years that I am today. The Portland Trailblazers burnt me pretty bad with the JailBlazees of 2000. Will we have the same outcome from entitled kids acting out with their $1 million 'signing bonus' in tow? 

 

Time will tell.

 

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Jon, we could quibble about details and time line, but the “SuperLeague” seems inevitable. 
 

Our son played DIII ball (4year starter, 4 year letterman, senior small college All-American honorable mention - met and married the small college All-American goalie from his school’s women’s team, small college athletes share weight rooms, great place to meet, “uh, need a spot? Can I have your phone number?”).

 

He got a great education, played almost every down on defense for 4 years, met his future wife, and after graduate school began a professional career.

 

What’s my point? Small college football is not perfect, notice͓̽ like DI seems to be an elite group of schools at the top every year. However, the ideal of a student athlete still has life at the lower levels of the sport.

 

In your list of possible Super League teams there are lots of fine schools and programs missing. Could those programs emerge as the ones to envy as the Super League and the unsavory trappings it will accumulate dominates the big screens?

 

I probably won’t turn my back on my university. But I can see my backside parked on rickety wooden bleachers along with the scattering of parents, girl friends, and a couple of stray dogs watching small, slow, fellows playing football for the love of it.

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A college draft would equalize the playing field for 1 recruiting class then the next year those kids might be jumping into the portal and Alabama would get a bigger advantage to have a look at these kids development at other schools. The portal won’t go away that’s for sure and the have and have nots will still be the same. 

 

Any way lawyers have turned this thing into a gigantic mess that is just going to get worse, not better.  They will I’ll get their share of the pie and it will be a large share for sure.

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Jon, you may be off on some of the details, but I think your big picture is correct. As in all areas of business (and college football is most certainly a business) we see nothing but consolidation; the big get bigger and the rest fall by the wayside. I don't see any forces in college football to prevent the consolidation into a Super League.

 

But remember what happened to the "real" Super League. It lasted less than 72 hours when the fans revolted.

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Jon, it is a brilliant article that will lend to tons of other tangents to ponder and explore.

 

--Will people actually pay to watch "pre-NFL" play when it is such a minor-league desperation play?

--Will universities truly "align" with a team, or let it turn into a "Club" as they do in Europe?

--Will the fee paid to the universities by the licensee holder be enough to fund all the other sports?

--How will universities avoid seeing young women in court for lack of athletic opportunities?

--Won't this destroy Olympic sports funding across the US?

--What will become of us fans?  The impact on sites like this and the other sites that have subscriptions.  Seems the interest would decline quite a bit?

--Will people want to watch Oregon State versus Washington State and UCLA versus Stanford?

 

In the end...isn't this going to kill the "The Golden Goose of College Football" for everyone?

 

                                      Cannot Afford this Anymore?

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NIL changed everything.  I can see a minor league forming, but the way NCAA is set up, it can't be with University ties.  College football and men's basketball will be dramaticaly different in 5 years.   The change hasn't fully hit and I'm not sure if most fans are going to be happy when we see the end product.  I hope I'm wrong, but two of my favorit sports to watch might become something to turn to if nothing else is on.

 

Deion Sanders is getting paid 1.2 million.  A few college kids are getting paid more than him.   

 

NCAA limited scholarships in 1973.  Yes, some teams were able to have an exhorbiant number of kids on a team back in the day, but that was when there were only 2 or 3 college games on for the whole weekend.  Yeah, a kid is going to love to walk on to a team and take home 50K, but that kid is also going to want to see the field.  He'll take his talents else were the next season.

 

NCAA still has some control of football teams.  Once they see teams hiding players as walk-ons, I do see them limiting the number of kids on a team.  Looking at GoDucks.com, the Ducks have 130 kids on the roster.  I know rosters are a bit bloated right now because of extra years granted because of COVID.  However, before COVID it was common for schools to have 110-120 kids on their roster.  Make a rule where  you limit the number of kids on a roster regardless of scholarship or not.

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On 12/22/2021 at 6:17 AM, florida duck said:

Five years ago i would have said you were crazy. Now though I can see that really happening.Then it stops being college football and becomes minor league football. Is the next step making high school football the new college teams. 

 

When you consider that CFB has been played for well over 100 years the changes in the last few seasons are to say the least, dramatic. Spot on. A Super League will be a 'professional' league. Seems to me to only be the end of hypocrisy around CFB that we see today. Hypocrisy? Mike Leach calling out players for opting out of bowl games when many coaches, Riley, Kelly, Cristobal are doing the same. One difference, these coaches have already 'been paid.'

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On 12/22/2021 at 8:00 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Jon that is some out of the box, forward, innovative thinking. 

 

Really enjoyed the article and is one hec of a ponder topic.

 

All things are possible. One thing is for sure, it's 3:35 am and I am not gonna be able to go back to sleep. My little little sleepy brain is now fully engaged. What the Hec........

 

Here are a few thoughts and comments...........

 

Although their are many pros and cons to a Super League, money will drive the bus. Good or bad, money will drive the bus.......

 

Faculties will be overjoyed at the thought of separating themselves from athletics. After all, they know they are underpaid. Maybe more money for themselves. Whatever money the school needed to funnel into athletics could be saved an funneled for pay raises.

 

Somebody, some schools, some players, their parents and non football athletes will potentially get hurt in the process.. Aka, damages..

Did someone mention damages? Let me introduce my self, I am a lawyer with the lawfirm................

Oh do you really think we can get some money from suing for damages? Why yes, and it won't cost you any money unless we win the law suit........

 

What do you mean I have to take a pay cut to coach? I don't want to make less money. I need to hire a lawyer. How much money will that cost me?

 

Hello Mr and Mrs Smith does your son have an agent representing his best interests? I can make him alot of money.....

 

The television networks will not want to be left out of this opportunity for more money.

 

The Super League teams will want a a Pete Rozelle type commissioner to represent them in the TV negotiations. The league, it's shield and brand will command large amounts of money.

 

Pete Rozelle was the commissioner of the NFL back during the formation of Monday night football. ABC Network was shut out of NFL football. NBC and CBS had the respective AFC and NFC broadcast rights. The bidding for MNF was fierce. ABC won out. The Nielson ratings for MNF were off the charts.. ABC had no competing games.. Unlike NBC and CBS who had competing games on Sunday. ABC paid more money for the broadcast rights, sold advertising spots for more money

 

Interesting, turn of events happened when the rebids for MNF broadcast rights came open again. Roone Arledge, the producer of MNF, and the ABC executives offered the NFL less money. After all,  NBC and CBS got 2 games each week and MNF got only 1 game. Why should they pay the same amount of money  as the other 2 networks? Pete Rozelle was too sharp for that tactic. He told ABC, if you want the rights you pay the same amount of money for less games  He mentioned that if ABC wanted to continue MNF broadcasts they would have to substantially increase the bid. Why? NBC and CBS had been allowed to enter the bidding war for MNF. They were offering more money than ABC. ABC ponies up and the rest is history. 

 

I wonder how many Pete Rozelle types will be involved in the potential formation of a Super League?

 

The possibilities are too numerous to mention. Exciting, fascinating, complicated and maybe painful. 

 

Yes, Jon the landscape would change dramatically.  Eventually, top to bottom, it will seek its own level and chances are money will drive the bus.

 

Its now 5 am. I'm hungry. Sure glad some of the grandkids are here this week. Nana baked cookies.

 

So sorry to have kept you up my friend. Great walk through the past with the Rooney, Rozelle and MNF back in the early days of Monday Night. Of course, back then, many of us received 1 CFB broadcast and 1 NFL broadcast on a given weekend. I know this hard for younger readers to fathom. So, MNF was much watch TV. Today, with TV saturated with games, I only watch if I have an interest in one or both teams playing ball.

 

Spot on. It is about the MONEY. CFB was headed for consolidation, pay-for-play, etc., when the commissioners of the various conferences agreed with SEC Commissioner, Ray Kramer, that we need settle the championship on the field. Thus the BCS and now this BCS x 2. The rise of the SEC. The decline of the Pac-12.

 

I'm closing in on 75 and I'm sorry, I just do not love the game as I once did. 

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On 12/22/2021 at 9:16 AM, Logger29 said:

Jon, we could quibble about details and time line, but the “SuperLeague” seems inevitable. 
 

Our son played DIII ball (4year starter, 4 year letterman, senior small college All-American honorable mention - met and married the small college All-American goalie from his school’s women’s team, small college athletes share weight rooms, great place to meet, “uh, need a spot? Can I have your phone number?”).

 

He got a great education, played almost every down on defense for 4 years, met his future wife, and after graduate school began a professional career.

 

What’s my point? Small college football is not perfect, notice͓̽ like DI seems to be an elite group of schools at the top every year. However, the ideal of a student athlete still has life at the lower levels of the sport.

 

In your list of possible Super League teams there are lots of fine schools and programs missing. Could those programs emerge as the ones to envy as the Super League and the unsavory trappings it will accumulate dominates the big screens?

 

I probably won’t turn my back on my university. But I can see my backside parked on rickety wooden bleachers along with the scattering of parents, girl friends, and a couple of stray dogs watching small, slow, fellows playing football for the love of it.

 

Thanks Logger. I played D3 football and hockey. We played for the love of the game and for the love of one another.  I do expect that with the coming of a Super League, many the school may go the Ivy League/D3 route and have a football team but with very limited recruiting and no scholarships.

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On 12/22/2021 at 10:00 AM, Just Ducky said:

A college draft would equalize the playing field for 1 recruiting class then the next year those kids might be jumping into the portal and Alabama would get a bigger advantage to have a look at these kids development at other schools. The portal won’t go away that’s for sure and the have and have nots will still be the same. 

 

Any way lawyers have turned this thing into a gigantic mess that is just going to get worse, not better.  They will I’ll get their share of the pie and it will be a large share for sure.

 

I think the 'portal' for the Super League will disappear. The player's will be employees of the Licensee and will sign, or their parents/guardians will sign, if they are under age to commit to a contract, a contract limiting a player's option to leave for another team. One point of a Super League will be to cement rosters.

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On 12/22/2021 at 10:12 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

I'm closing in on 75 and I'm sorry, I just do not love the game as I once did. 

 

 Of course Jon, the game is not what it once was. I never had more fun going to the games as a kid in the 70's, even when the Ducks were awful. The Bowl games meant something. I grew up watching the Buckeyes, Archie winning two Heisman's. 

 

Anthony Davis scoring 6 TD's for the Trojans against Notre Dame, and I'll never forget just standing around Autzen on the way to my seat watching Ricky Bell run all over the Ducks. Going to and watching the Ducks was so much fun back then, and nobody could follow them the way we can follow a team now.

 

Yeah, Washington thinks it won a 'ship in 91. So that's a drawback to how it used to be. But it was just fine getting to the end of the season and finding out who No. 1 was, 

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On 12/22/2021 at 11:21 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Jon, it is a brilliant article that will lend to tons of other tangents to ponder and explore.

 

--Will people actually pay to watch "pre-NFL" play when it is such a minor-league desperation play?

--Will universities truly "align" with a team, or let it turn into a "Club" as they do in Europe?

--Will the fee paid to the universities by the licensee holder be enough to fund all the other sports?

--How will universities avoid seeing young women in court for lack of athletic opportunities?

--Won't this destroy Olympic sports funding across the US?

--What will become of us fans?  The impact on sites like this and the other sites that have subscriptions.  Seems the interest would decline quite a bit?

--Will people want to watch Oregon State versus Washington State and UCLA versus Stanford?

 

In the end...isn't this going to kill the "The Golden Goose of College Football" for everyone?

 

                                      Cannot Afford this Anymore?

GLB11670.jpg

 

Charles, great questions and ponder points. Your article asking whether 'us fans' matter anymore was very much on my mind when composing this article. Clearly, my idea of a Super League may never come to fruition? But CFB is in an arm's race.  How many institutions will be willing to spend the money to be able to compete at the highest level of CFB?

 

2 of our Pac-12 'brothers' have already answered this question. CU lost its coach to the B1G and WA ST lost its HC to the SEC. 

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On 12/22/2021 at 11:46 AM, Tandaian said:

NIL changed everything.  I can see a minor league forming, but the way NCAA is set up, it can't be with University ties.  College football and men's basketball will be dramaticaly different in 5 years.   The change hasn't fully hit and I'm not sure if most fans are going to be happy when we see the end product.  I hope I'm wrong, but two of my favorit sports to watch might become something to turn to if nothing else is on.

 

Deion Sanders is getting paid 1.2 million.  A few college kids are getting paid more than him.   

 

NCAA limited scholarships in 1973.  Yes, some teams were able to have an exhorbiant number of kids on a team back in the day, but that was when there were only 2 or 3 college games on for the whole weekend.  Yeah, a kid is going to love to walk on to a team and take home 50K, but that kid is also going to want to see the field.  He'll take his talents else were the next season.

 

NCAA still has some control of football teams.  Once they see teams hiding players as walk-ons, I do see them limiting the number of kids on a team.  Looking at GoDucks.com, the Ducks have 130 kids on the roster.  I know rosters are a bit bloated right now because of extra years granted because of COVID.  However, before COVID it was common for schools to have 110-120 kids on their roster.  Make a rule where  you limit the number of kids on a roster regardless of scholarship or not.

 

Great take. With the decision in the Alston case I expect that very shortly the P5 conferences at least, will break away entirely from the NCAA when it comes to football and establish their own rules, regulations and general governance of the sport. 

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On 12/22/2021 at 1:23 PM, 30Duck said:

 

 Of course Jon, the game is not what it once was. I never had more fun going to the games as a kid in the 70's, even when the Ducks were awful. The Bowl games meant something. I grew up watching the Buckeyes, Archie winning two Heisman's. 

 

Anthony Davis scoring 6 TD's for the Trojans against Notre Dame, and I'll never forget just standing around Autzen on the way to my seat watching Ricky Bell run all over the Ducks. Going to and watching the Ducks was so much fun back then, and nobody could follow them the way we can follow a team now.

 

Yeah, Washington thinks it won a 'ship in 91. So that's a drawback to how it used to be. But it was just fine getting to the end of the season and finding out who No. 1 was, 

 

AMEN. And for some silly reason back then you had to be far better than 6-6 to go to a bowl game. Not only did the best players not opt out. But the top NFL picks played in the All-American Game vs the defending NFL champ. 

 

I cop to being angry over the way money has so altered CFB and how badly the Pac-12 has been managed.

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Jon, When it comes to the financial analysis of football, I know of no one that does it as well as you. The monster (pay for play) is loose and nothing is going to control it. I agree that the super league is going to happen, when is the only question. The free market policies will ensure the rich get richer and the poor will be left with developing their own leagues, in my vision the Ivy League model. Oregon in the super league? I think this is debatable. Will the university buy into these values? I hope not, but the rabid boosters may push for it. Uncle Phil will not live forever so his financial support should not be taken for granted.

 

In any case, my interest in this type of "college" football will be non-existent. Track and field, women's basketball and softball will get my attention. I still remember the joy of watching football in the East grandstand  at Hayward Field, even when we lost. As a member of the hurdle crew for 17 years, I saw every race that Pre ran. The  foot stomping crowd reaction as he came around the last curve still gives me goose bumps. Now that was pure joy!!!

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On 12/22/2021 at 2:38 PM, DUCKBILL said:

Jon, When it comes to the financial analysis of football, I know of no one that does it as well as you. The monster (pay for play) is loose and nothing is going to control it. I agree that the super league is going to happen, when is the only question. The free market policies will ensure the rich get richer and the poor will be left with developing their own leagues, in my vision the Ivy League model. Oregon in the super league? I think this is debatable. Will the university buy into these values? I hope not, but the rabid boosters may push for it. Uncle Phil will not live forever so his financial support should not be taken for granted.

 

In any case, my interest in this type of "college" football will be non-existent. Track and field, women's basketball and softball will get my attention. I still remember the joy of watching football in the East grandstand  at Hayward Field, even when we lost. As a member of the hurdle crew for 17 years, I saw every race that Pre ran. The  foot stomping crowd reaction as he came around the last curve still gives me goose bumps. Now that was pure joy!!!

 

Thanks for the great comment. The problem? Without football how will the non-revenue sports be funded?

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On 12/22/2021 at 10:12 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

So sorry to have kept you up my friend. Great walk through the past with the Rooney, Rozelle and MNF back in the early days of Monday Night. Of course, back then, many of us received 1 CFB broadcast and 1 NFL broadcast on a given weekend. I know this hard for younger readers to fathom. So, MNF was much watch TV. Today, with TV saturated with games, I only watch if I have an interest in one or both teams playing ball.

 

Spot on. It is about the MONEY. CFB was headed for consolidation, pay-for-play, etc., when the commissioners of the various conferences agreed with SEC Commissioner, Ray Kramer, that we need settle the championship on the field. Thus the BCS and now this BCS x 2. The rise of the SEC. The decline of the Pac-12.

 

I'm closing in on 75 and I'm sorry, I just do not love the game as I once did. 

Jon one more thought about the Super League developing in the near future.

 

IMHO, The PAC and its commissioner made a lethal mistake by not expanding. They could have ended the BIG 12 in one move.

 

The PAC could have laid the foundation for a 18-20 Mini Super League.  Not as glamorous as SEC, for sure. But positioned to cover 3 time zones, including Texas. TV money, lots of money, would have followed.

 

ould have eliminated a CFP competitor. Hec the last 3 weeks, after the Utah loss the narrative was all about Baylor, OU and Oklahoma State and the. CFP.. .. 2 of those teams should have been invited to the PAC.

 

I believe a 4 conference set up with 72-80 schools will come first.  Test the waters first. See how rating meters move. TV is and will always be the cash cow.......

 

The PAC could have made the first move. But didn't. Eventually 4 to 6 PAC teams will jump to a bigger pond.

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Jon, thank you for your insight but it makes me want to gag. Not your writing of course but college football as we know it is officially dead and buried. When NIL showed up, that was the end. The new transfer portal with no one year waiting was the second straw. You just have to know that boosters are now out buying talent as we speak. They have always done this but now they will do it with impunity. I have been college football depressed all year and now your fine article sums it up nicely. GO DUCKS, I think?

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Jon, The issue of paying for non-revenue sports is a problem. We will still have football and hopefully we can fill Autzen with an entertaining team. I would have to look at the Ivy League to see how they do it. Oregon women's basketball is a revenue producer if I remember correctly. Maybe we could get deep pocket sponsors to develop a sports endowment program. Students already pay a sports fee with their tuition.

In any case, There are surely options to financing our Oregon sports along the "old time" value of the STUDENT-athlete.

 

If only 2% of college athletes go pro, that means 98% must be playing for other reasons. Love of the game? Combine this with the hesitation of parents wanting their children to play football because of the body damage risk factor and we may see football as less important for the new generation of parents and youth.

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Mind blowing article Jon.  

 

What a juicy topic. First of all, how will this effect draft status for players wanting to go to the NFL?

 

Since most players aren't close to talented enough to play in the NFL, how will that work out?

 

Will players stay longer than four years?  Will there be a salary cap? How will that effect minimum salaries?  

 

Will players be allowed to switch back and forth between leagues?  

 

Now that we've seen the first year of NIL, I'm sure some changes will occur.  For instance,  Spencer Rattler and DJ Ulagalelei were disappointments while Bryce Young and CJ Stroud were standouts.  

 

What kind of NIL deals will be signed from this point on (and if labor contracts are signed, how will that play out?).

 

Currently, it appears the wise coaches are going to pluck talent they can develop from other schools, and the recruiting rating systems are definitely going to be affected moving forward.

 

Plenty of schools have already experienced disappointments like Spencer Rattler and  DJ Ulagalelei, heck Oregon has experienced it three times the last 7 years.  In the meantime, CJ Stroud and Bryce Young were standouts. NIL deals are risky business.

 

I do believe there will be a slow transition to any such league.  It's only been one year in this new system of "payoffs and free agency".   I for one wouldn't shell out hundreds of  thousands of dollars to teenagers yet to prove themselves, even the top 300 players rated.  I believe there will be a shakeout in that area.

 

Same goes for coaches.  After all, Michigan and Cincinnati are an aberration to say the least.  If the playoff expands, I believe the astronomic coaching  salaries may cool off.

 

Jimbo Fisher is a one hit wonder so far.  Same for Mac Brown. In fact, the only Lion in the coaching ranks is  Nick Saban. 

 

Will we see schools succeed like the Steelers and the Patriots in this new system ( keep salaries low by developing players and allow  teams willing to "over pay" to pluck proven talent - yet still earn titles and playoff berths)?

 

Athletic Directors will need to develop some serious acumen to successfully navigate this new landscape.

 

So much to ponder.  It will be fascinating to observe the changes coming to college football. Let's hope University Presidents are truly an educated group, and are capable of preserving the goose that laid the Golden Egg.

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Hi, new to the forum and recent-ish UO alumni. Glad to be here and hope this post falls within the rules. As I intend to touch on the ethical considerations and consequences of NIL decision by the supreme court. But will avoid any out of scope political commentary.

Firstly, to Jon's question on funding of non-revenue sports.
 

On 12/22/2021 at 11:53 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

 

Thanks for the great comment. The problem? Without football how will the non-revenue sports be funded?

 


Like most other student activities, they would be funded by the fees as part of tuition (at UO it's called the I-fee).

Of course, there is the issue that these I-fees would not be enough to cover the costs. Yet, I think the more pressing question is why these costs are so high?

Imo it is because college athletics has long moved past amateur athletic pursuits to a multi-billion dollar industry. As such, it seems fairly unethical for these young men to be surrounded by people making millions a year while they risk their health and well-being for a relative pittance. So while NIL may or may not hurt my personal viewing experience, I cannot in good conscience try to apply false veneer of amateurism.

So to me that leaves 2 choices.
1. If cfb and cbb are to remain highly profitable, enterprises, the men in the arena should be fairly compensated.

2. Actually make college athletics amateur. This would mean no more multi-million dollar coaches salaries, lavish facilities or buku TV deals. Perhaps by limiting athletic department spending or some such mechanism. This would mean a less glitzy experience. But perhaps a more soulful localized experience of the older days. Which as a 30 year-old I never got to experience, and I hear was pretty cool.

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Saint Puddles welcome. Post often and understand someone will let you know if you break the rules. Enjoy the forum.

 

Kind of get the feeling that the amateur ship has sailed.

 

However we will probably see an FCS type  championship playoff with the have nots.  

 

When the insanity levels off there will be plenty of schools who will let the ship sail without them.

 

And then offer a great amateur athletic experience for their student athlete.

 

If you watched the FCS Semifinals last weekend you saw passionate players and rabid fans.

 

Change will always come in many packages.

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On 12/22/2021 at 3:43 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Jon one more thought about the Super League developing in the near future.

 

IMHO, The PAC and its commissioner made a lethal mistake by not expanding. They could have ended the BIG 12 in one move.

 

The PAC could have laid the foundation for a 18-20 Mini Super League.  Not as glamorous as SEC, for sure. But positioned to cover 3 time zones, including Texas. TV money, lots of money, would have followed.

 

ould have eliminated a CFP competitor. Hec the last 3 weeks, after the Utah loss the narrative was all about Baylor, OU and Oklahoma State and the. CFP.. .. 2 of those teams should have been invited to the PAC.

 

I believe a 4 conference set up with 72-80 schools will come first.  Test the waters first. See how rating meters move. TV is and will always be the cash cow.......

 

The PAC could have made the first move. But didn't. Eventually 4 to 6 PAC teams will jump to a bigger pond.

 

COMPLETELY SPOT ON! IMO, the 3rd terrible decision by the 'leaders' of the Pac-12, following up being sold on the 'need' for CFB to have a champ decided on the field and throwing the Rose Bowl in for crickets,  then launching a network without a media partner and all distribution agreements in place, came this baffling decision not to expand. This decision came after the SEC did the dirty work. The SEC poached TX and OK . The Pac-12 could have been a savior for many a remaining B12 team. Instead, the Pac-12 formed an alliance that will add a P5 OOC game every year but a home game only every other year.

 

Would adding OK ST, TX TECH, TCU, HOUSTON, KS, K ST, Iowa State and Baylor immediately drop additional money to the Pac-12's bottom line? Probably not. But the conference would have increased its market size, added the significant Dallas and Houston markets and WIPED OUT a P5 competitor in the process. The folks who made this decision avoided strategic thinking. They looked at the immediate return on investment and said 'no' to expansion. I would expect this kind of 'thinking' from Scott. But I thought that media savvy guy GK, would have looked long term and not short term?  

 

These schools would not only have lifted the conference in CFB but also CBB. Perhaps added enough subscribers to save the network? Perhaps added enough market share so FOX would have come on board as the owner, operator, distributer of the network? Plus, for the most part even at Kansas, fans show up to watch the home games. What's even more baffling is that the conference made this decision after the new commissioner said AAU membership would not be a necessary requirement for membership.

 

What does GK now have to sell to the media companies in the upcoming new media negotiations? How about SSDD?

 

 

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On 12/22/2021 at 4:58 PM, DUCKBILL said:

Jon, The issue of paying for non-revenue sports is a problem. We will still have football and hopefully we can fill Autzen with an entertaining team. I would have to look at the Ivy League to see how they do it. Oregon women's basketball is a revenue producer if I remember correctly. Maybe we could get deep pocket sponsors to develop a sports endowment program. Students already pay a sports fee with their tuition.

In any case, There are surely options to financing our Oregon sports along the "old time" value of the STUDENT-athlete.

 

If only 2% of college athletes go pro, that means 98% must be playing for other reasons. Love of the game? Combine this with the hesitation of parents wanting their children to play football because of the body damage risk factor and we may see football as less important for the new generation of parents and youth.

 

IVY LEAGUE? They do it through huge endowments. The stands except for the rivalry game, Harvard vs Yale, Dartmouth vs Princeton, are empty. But like Stanford that backed off on cutting non-revenue sports, the Ivy League does not have to worry about CFB paying for the non-revenue sports.

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On 12/22/2021 at 4:58 PM, Mike West said:

Mind blowing article Jon.  

 

What a juicy topic. First of all, how will this effect draft status for players wanting to go to the NFL?

 

Since most players aren't close to talented enough to play in the NFL, how will that work out?

 

Will players stay longer than four years?  Will there be a salary cap? How will that effect minimum salaries?  

 

Will players be allowed to switch back and forth between leagues?  

 

Now that we've seen the first year of NIL, I'm sure some changes will occur.  For instance,  Spencer Rattler and DJ Ulagalelei were disappointments while Bryce Young and CJ Stroud were standouts.  

 

What kind of NIL deals will be signed from this point on (and if labor contracts are signed, how will that play out?).

 

Currently, it appears the wise coaches are going to pluck talent they can develop from other schools, and the recruiting rating systems are definitely going to be affected moving forward.

 

Plenty of schools have already experienced disappointments like Spencer Rattler and  DJ Ulagalelei, heck Oregon has experienced it three times the last 7 years.  In the meantime, CJ Stroud and Bryce Young were standouts. NIL deals are risky business.

 

I do believe there will be a slow transition to any such league.  It's only been one year in this new system of "payoffs and free agency".   I for one wouldn't shell out hundreds of  thousands of dollars to teenagers yet to prove themselves, even the top 300 players rated.  I believe there will be a shakeout in that area.

 

Same goes for coaches.  After all, Michigan and Cincinnati are an aberration to say the least.  If the playoff expands, I believe the astronomic coaching  salaries may cool off.

 

Jimbo Fisher is a one hit wonder so far.  Same for Mac Brown. In fact, the only Lion in the coaching ranks is  Nick Saban. 

 

Will we see schools succeed like the Steelers and the Patriots in this new system ( keep salaries low by developing players and allow  teams willing to "over pay" to pluck proven talent - yet still earn titles and playoff berths)?

 

Athletic Directors will need to develop some serious acumen to successfully navigate this new landscape.

 

So much to ponder.  It will be fascinating to observe the changes coming to college football. Let's hope University Presidents are truly an educated group, and are capable of preserving the goose that laid the Golden Egg.

 

Thanks Mike, all great thoughts. A+M has not won a division title since joining the SEC but Jimbo hit it out of the park with this recruiting class that will likely only get better in February?

 

Eligibility? Chance to be brought up to a parent NFL team and then be sent down? 6 years to play 4? Have to complete the equivalent of 2 years of JC credits is 4 or 5 years? I don't know how it will be formally and finally structured, but I do know that it will be about the Benjis.

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     Great article Jon; whatever comes of it, it’s just interesting to ponder.

 

     One issue that is a potential Achilles heal is that of how national school administration from the federal level right down to local districts will react to the intensified financial pressure brought to bear on student athletes who will inherit that along with the expected uptick in recruiting pressure. The reverberations from such a change in college ball will unavoidably sound throughout the high school systems of the country as prominent programs begin to jockey for position in this changing landscape and schools are forced to deal even more with some of the same issues colleges do now between education and sports.

 

     The reaction from national school administrators would probably be swift and negative as they foresee students of this age group not being mature enough to deal with the pressures raining down on them.

 

     Would this alter football as it has basketball where we now have academies created especially to prepare players for the next level? Easier said than done when you look at a cost comparison of the two sports. It could be the only choice though if national educators trump athletic departments at the high school level in the effort to protect youth from a higher sports system run amok in pursuit of the almighty dollar.

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On 12/22/2021 at 6:34 PM, Washington Waddler said:

     Great article Jon; whatever comes of it, it’s just interesting to ponder.

 

     One issue that is a potential Achilles heal is that of how national school administration from the federal level right down to local districts will react to the intensified financial pressure brought to bear on student athletes who will inherit that along with the expected uptick in recruiting pressure. The reverberations from such a change in college ball will unavoidably sound throughout the high school systems of the country as prominent programs begin to jockey for position in this changing landscape and schools are forced to deal even more with some of the same issues colleges do now between education and sports.

 

     The reaction from national school administrators would probably be swift and negative as they foresee students of this age group not being mature enough to deal with the pressures raining down on them.

 

     Would this alter football as it has basketball where we now have academies created especially to prepare players for the next level? Easier said than done when you look at a cost comparison of the two sports. It could be the only choice though if national educators trump athletic departments at the high school level in the effort to protect youth from a higher sports system run amok in pursuit of the almighty dollar.

 

     

 

 

I think my friend that at least at the college level the bills proposed in Congress and the Alston decision by the Supreme Court have been met.

 

In other words, don't mess with a player's ability to capitalize on his own NIL. And today? There really is no agency in control. So we have pay for play, unfettered free agency, roster tampering and millions of dollars falling down on coaches who have not been head coaches and coaches like Tucker and Cristobal who are barely over .500 for their career as head coaches. When it comes to roster tampering you don't have to talk with the player, you talk with his now allowed agent. There is a single commissioner for the NFL. There is a draft in inverse order of finish. There is no CFB control of agents; agents must be approved by the NFL. There are contractual restraints on free agency. In the NFL, Jacksonville gets the same media financial rewards as does the New York Giants. 

 

BTW, the top running back in the portal from Georgia Tech just signed with Bama. I'm shocked. In 2021, Bama's top tackler and top receiver came from the portal.

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Jon, you may have nailed it. A Super League may well be in the cards. And while seeing how this plays out will be fascinating, it pains me to imagine what many of us college football fans—and yes, even many of the athletes—will lose in the process.

 

Guess I'll wind up skipping the Super League teams and following the smaller schools where student athletes still play the game I love.

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Great article, Jon. It's always fun to hang out with the smart people here. One thing, though. You said there are 1,000 players in the portal. I heard the other day that there are 2,000! Ten years ago who would have thought that the two most important words in college football are now "transfer portal" and NIL. It is a different world. While I don't believe the Ducks are headed into the Ivy League model, we are certainly barrelling down a road with little in the way of headlights.

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On 12/22/2021 at 5:12 PM, SaintPuddles said:

Hi, new to the forum and recent-ish UO alumni. Glad to be here and hope this post falls within the rules. As I intend to touch on the ethical considerations and consequences of NIL decision by the supreme court. But will avoid any out of scope political commentary.

Firstly, to Jon's question on funding of non-revenue sports.
 


Like most other student activities, they would be funded by the fees as part of tuition (at UO it's called the I-fee).

Of course, there is the issue that these I-fees would not be enough to cover the costs. Yet, I think the more pressing question is why these costs are so high?

Imo it is because college athletics has long moved past amateur athletic pursuits to a multi-billion dollar industry. As such, it seems fairly unethical for these young men to be surrounded by people making millions a year while they risk their health and well-being for a relative pittance. So while NIL may or may not hurt my personal viewing experience, I cannot in good conscience try to apply false veneer of amateurism.

So to me that leaves 2 choices.
1. If cfb and cbb are to remain highly profitable, enterprises, the men in the arena should be fairly compensated.

2. Actually make college athletics amateur. This would mean no more multi-million dollar coaches salaries, lavish facilities or buku TV deals. Perhaps by limiting athletic department spending or some such mechanism. This would mean a less glitzy experience. But perhaps a more soulful localized experience of the older days. Which as a 30 year-old I never got to experience, and I hear was pretty cool.

 

Thanks for this great comment. Great to see you on board the Forum.

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On 12/23/2021 at 4:49 AM, Duckpop22 said:

Great article, Jon. It's always fun to hang out with the smart people here. One thing, though. You said there are 1,000 players in the portal. I heard the other day that there are 2,000! Ten years ago who would have thought that the two most important words in college football are now "transfer portal" and NIL. It is a different world. While I don't believe the Ducks are headed into the Ivy League model, we are certainly barrelling down a road with little in the way of headlights.

 

Spot on regarding portal numbers. Far more guys in the portal than there are available scholarships. 

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On 12/22/2021 at 2:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

The arms race in college football, (CFB) has passed the point of the absurd. Case in point, Michigan State coach Mel Tucker who in three seasons has compiled a record barely over .500 and in 2022 will be paid over $9M per season. Another case in point is the case of Mario Cristobal, a head coach with a record of ...

 

Read the full article here...

Kind of funny Jon that you mention Mario and Mel against 3 guys who have won Natty's. I have to laugh at Mario's record at 61-60 that's absurd and Miami I'm sure just like FSU did to

Oregon with slick Willie and the exact same thing will happen to Mario so what does he have to worry about after he's fired, absolutely nothing because his family will be taken care of the rest of their lives because their father coached and did entertainment and that's exactly what this is and that's it.

 

The money they make is what's wrong with this country and it's called greed and I'm getting to the point why do they need my little dollars because Oregon hasn't done nothing as far as become a National Championship and isn't what we should expect and that's the Multi Billionaire paying out more than the others so Oregon can say yes we are in the Natty Championship history. Now because they just expanded the playoff's it got a whole lot tougher. I mean I whole heartedly think or believe Oregon got a way better HC than Mario.

 

Alls I know is this is all craziness and Mario just got paid over 8 million for barely being a above 500% HC. This is total insanity and I'm not in agreement that Thibadueax isn't gonna play in the Alamo bowl because I don't care what anybody thinks about this is he quit on his team and I'm never going to aknowledge that he played for Oregon. The guy didn't show up in either game against Utah. That's not first pick in the NFL draft and I wouldn't want him period. I don't get that feeling from Hutchinson who doesn't have the athletic traits this guy possesses.

 which I fine 

He just plays freaking hard all game long and it shows in the guys stats so I'd take him over Thib's any day as in no excuses for how he didn't show up. For the game at all levels to get better players should neevr be allowed to sit out only if their injured and that's it so he's just a selfish player all the way around. I still to this day cannot believe Mario told Oregon fans not to boo which was hilarious as who does he think he is. I seriously doubt most fans were booing anybody but Cristabol because he's the guy that refused to take out the terrible QB.

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On 12/24/2021 at 2:28 PM, MaiTaiDuck said:

Kind of funny Jon that you mention Mario and Mel against 3 guys who have won Natty's. I have to laugh at Mario's record at 61-60 that's absurd and Miami I'm sure just like FSU did to

Oregon with slick Willie and the exact same thing will happen to Mario so what does he have to worry about after he's fired, absolutely nothing because his family will be taken care of the rest of their lives because their father coached and did entertainment and that's exactly what this is and that's it.

 

The money they make is what's wrong with this country and it's called greed and I'm getting to the point why do they need my little dollars because Oregon hasn't done nothing as far as become a National Championship and isn't what we should expect and that's the Multi Billionaire paying out more than the others so Oregon can say yes we are in the Natty Championship history. Now because they just expanded the playoff's it got a whole lot tougher. I mean I whole heartedly think or believe Oregon got a way better HC than Mario.

 

Alls I know is this is all craziness and Mario just got paid over 8 million for barely being a above 500% HC. This is total insanity and I'm not in agreement that Thibadueax isn't gonna play in the Alamo bowl because I don't care what anybody thinks about this is he quit on his team and I'm never going to aknowledge that he played for Oregon. The guy didn't show up in either game against Utah. That's not first pick in the NFL draft and I wouldn't want him period. I don't get that feeling from Hutchinson who doesn't have the athletic traits this guy possesses.

 which I fine 

He just plays freaking hard all game long and it shows in the guys stats so I'd take him over Thib's any day as in no excuses for how he didn't show up. For the game at all levels to get better players should neevr be allowed to sit out only if their injured and that's it so he's just a selfish player all the way around. I still to this day cannot believe Mario told Oregon fans not to boo which was hilarious as who does he think he is. I seriously doubt most fans were booing anybody but Cristabol because he's the guy that refused to take out the terrible QB.

 

As The Book says: Money is not evil. The love of money is evil. Thanks for the great comment. In 'fairness' to Mario I believe his overall record is 62-60. People want to forget about and make excuses for Mario's record at FIU.

 

Lane Kiffin took over FAU and turned the program around in his first season there. Mario is a recruiting champ and a coaching chump. So long and don't let the door hit you in the backside on the way out.

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